Quick Read XRP ETFs recorded $46M in net inflows on January 6 with cumulative flows crossing $1.3B in under 50 days. XRP surged 20% to $2.40 in early January driven by record ETF demand and post-SEC legal clarity. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. The XRP price surge in the first week of January made David Schwartz's timing look suspicious. XRP pumped 20% in early January, hitting $2.4 ...

1月2日：因周四元旦休市，直接回顾周三（2025年12月31日）行情，其走势震荡收跌，再度受到年尾的 获利了结调整压力，芝商所一周内第二次再次上调贵金属期货保证金，加上美国至12月27日当周初请失 业金人数录得19.9万人，不及预期，为11月29日当周以来新低等等继续打压金价走低。 走势自亚市开于4338.29美元，最高触及4372.93美元，最低触及4274.54美元，最终收于4314.72美元，日 振幅98.39美元，收跌23.57美元，跌幅0.54%。 展望新的一年新的一天（2026年1月1日）：国际黄金跳空高开近13美金至4327.46美元，并随即反弹走 强，受到地缘局势升级的推动，日内偏看涨反弹为主，但也许留意高开造成的缺口回补。 整体上，黄金2025年最终收涨约64%，连续第三年上涨；白银全年最终收涨147%。两者均创下1979年 以来的最佳年度表现。现货铂金全年大涨128%，现货钯金大涨77%。预计贵金属整体强势将继续延续 至2026年。 前景上，导致2024年及2025年的利好因素；美联储降息，地缘局势，央行购买，ETF流入等仍然存在， 并也有进一步扩大的迹象，故此，展望2026年，随着美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations and a decline due to profit-taking pressures at year-end, with the CME raising margin requirements for precious metals futures for the second time in a week, alongside lower-than-expected initial jobless claims in the U.S. [1][4] Price Movements - On December 31, 2025, gold opened at $4,338.29, reached a high of $4,372.93, a low of $4,274.54, and closed at $4,314.72, resulting in a daily decline of $23.57 or 0.54% [2]. Market Outlook - Despite recent declines, there is a potential for a rebound in gold prices, with expectations of a bullish trend if prices stabilize above $4,400. However, caution is advised as the weekly chart shows weakness, indicating possible further declines before a recovery [4][10]. - The overall performance of precious metals in 2025 was strong, with gold rising approximately 64%, silver up 147%, platinum increasing by 128%, and palladium by 77%, marking the best annual performance since 1979 [4]. Future Projections - Factors supporting the gold market in 2024 and 2025 include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. These factors are expected to continue into 2026, with predictions of three unexpected rate cuts in the first half of 2026, potentially driving gold prices up by about 30% [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices maintain strength in January, a bullish trend could lead to targets of $5,500 to $6,000. Conversely, a close below $4,300 could indicate a significant correction [8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly level, gold prices showed a strong rise in December but faced a notable pullback, indicating a risk of larger corrections to the $4,000-$3,900 range or lower. The weekly chart suggests a potential decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230 or lower [8]. - Daily analysis indicates that while gold opened strong, it remains under pressure from the $4,400 resistance level, with risks of a pullback before any significant upward movement [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are at $4,310 and $4,295, while resistance levels are at $4,380 and $4,400. For silver, support is at $71.30 and $70.20, with resistance at $74.30 and $75.60 [11].

张尧浠：黄金、白银、原油年终行情总结概要及展望 推动力： 年内美联储降息3次以及仍未结束的降息周期、关税政策担忧、地缘政治热点、央行购买和ETF流入等多重因素合力铸就的成果。 白银同时还受其被列入美国关键矿产清单、供应短缺以及工业与投资需求增长推动而涨幅远超黄金。 展望后市； 尽管年末反弹受阻于美元和收益率上涨而大幅获利了结，以及芝商所再次上调贵金属期货保证金影响进一步重挫，导致年涨幅缩水。 国际黄金： 2025年 开于2625.92美元/盎司，最低录得2614.66美元(1月)，最高录得4549.60美元(12月)，年振幅1934.94美元，最高涨幅73.26%，最终回撤收于4314.72美 元，收涨1688.8美元，最终涨幅64.31%。 国际白银： 2025年 开于28.71美元/盎司，最低录得28.325美元(4月)，最高录得83.874美元(12月)，年振幅55.522美元，最高涨幅192%，最终回撤收于71.52美元，收涨 42.81美元，最终涨幅149%。 并在4月份，美国原油库存数据显示增幅远超预期，叠加欧佩克+成员国表态愈发强硬，市场对全球原油供应过剩的担忧持续升温，进一步强化了整体看 空情 ...

隔夜，现货黄金从前一交易日的暴跌中反弹，一度重回4400美元关口，但美盘持续回吐日内涨幅，最终收涨0.16%，报4338.89美元。纵观全年， 黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4316美元附近徘徊。 现货白银在经历了五年多来最大的单日跌幅后收复了大部分失地，盘中触及78美元关口，最终收涨5.73%，报76.27美元。 美联储分歧严重！ 隔夜，美股三大指数连续第三个交易日微幅收跌，截至收盘，标准普尔500指数下跌0.14%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.24%，道琼斯工业平均指数 下跌0.20%。 消息面上，美联储公布了2025年最后一份会议纪要，12月会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。 还有值得一提的是，特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔的紧张关系再度升级。 特朗普周一表示，他心里已经有下一任美联储主席的人选，但并不急于宣布；他还暗示自己可能会解雇现任主席鲍威尔。 分析师称："市场并没有把新年出现'解雇美联储主席'这种情形计入定价。但只要政策基调还能稍微偏鸽，不去讨论往相反方向转，市场大概率能 消化这些噪音。" 关于美股后市 ...

12月31日：上交易日周二（12月30日）：国际黄金先涨后回撤倒垂收平，其形态上，相对于回落低位则 是止跌看涨信号，故此，操作上，可继续保持低多看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4334.30美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4323.49美元，之后则保持回升反 弹，一路延续到美盘初录得日内高点4404.18美元，就此遇阻回落，并转一路回撤，最终收于4338.51美 元，日振幅80.69美元，收涨4.21美元，涨幅0.097%。 影响上，日内受到支撑买盘，地缘局势升级，以及贵金属在经历踩踏式抛售后开始逢低入场收复失地， 而持续反弹录得日内高点，但由于均线阻力压制，再加上美盘公布数据集体利空，而再度打压金价持续 回落，最终倒垂收线。 展望今日周三（12月31日）：国际黄金开盘继续受到支撑买盘，先行偏强运行，另外，凌晨美联储会议 纪要：官员分歧严重，但多数支持进一步降息，也对金价产生一定支撑。但美元指数昨日反弹收涨，今 日走势也偏强反弹，则会限制金价多头。 前景上，导致2024年及2025年的利好因素；美联储降息，地缘局势，央行购买，ETF流入等仍然存在， 并也有进一步扩大的迹象，故此，展望2026年，随着美联储政 ...

前景上，导致2024年及2025年的利好因素；美联储降息，地缘局势，央行购买，ETF流入等仍然存在， 并也有进一步扩大的迹象，故此，展望2026年，随着美联储政策分歧加剧、经济数据陆续出炉以及地缘 风险的演变，黄金仍有望延续牛市势头。 技术上，月线级别，金价本月虽再度强势攀升，但在月尾明显回撤，有再度形成倒垂看空，并虚破趋势 线阻力，这暗示后市有再度展开较大回调，回踩4000-3900美元区域或更低位置的风险； 今日周三，黄金开盘继续受到支撑买盘，先行偏强运行，另外，凌晨美联储会议纪要：官员分歧严重， 但多数支持进一步降息，也对金价产生一定支撑。但美元指数昨日反弹收涨，今日走势也偏强反弹，则 会限制金价多头。 日内将可关注美国至12月27日当周初请失业金人数(万人)，市场预期将利好金价，故此，综合来看，日 内走势偏向震荡或者反弹的概率较大，操作上，还是空为辅，多为主。方向继续看涨上行的思路不变。 但参考年初2月及3月的突破走势来看，如1月份再度强势拉升持稳收阳，则将稳健打开进一步牛市行 情，直接跟进看涨至5500-6000美元区域。 日图；金价昨日虽反弹遇阻，但也收取止跌看涨形态，中轨支撑仍未跌破，故此，在跌 ...

张尧浠：回落调整空间有限、金银仍是逢低看涨为主 上交易日周二(12月30日)：国际黄金先涨后回撤倒垂收平，其形态上，相对于回落低位则是止跌看涨信号，故此，操作上，可继续保持低多看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4334.30美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4323.49美元，之后则保持回升反弹，一路延续到美盘初录得日内高点4404.18美元， 就此遇阻回落，并转一路回撤，最终收于4338.51美元，日振幅80.69美元，收涨4.21美元，涨幅0.097%。 影响上，日内受到支撑买盘，地缘局势升级，以及贵金属在经历踩踏式抛售后开始逢低入场收复失地，而持续反弹录得日内高点，但由于均线阻力压制， 再加上美盘公布数据集体利空，而再度打压金价持续回落，最终倒垂收线。 展望今日周三(12月31日)：国际黄金开盘继续受到支撑买盘，先行偏强运行，另外，凌晨美联储会议纪要：官员分歧严重，但多数支持进一步降息，也对 金价产生一定支撑。但美元指数昨日反弹收涨，今日走势也偏强反弹，则会限制金价多头。 日内将可关注美国至12月27日当周初请失业金人数(万人)，市场预期将利好金价，故此，综合来看，日内走势偏向震荡或者反弹的概率较大，操作 ...

Industry Overview - The report maintains a strong market rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, with a closing index of 7715.84, a 52-week high of 7846.97, and a low of 4280.14 [1]. Investment Highlights - In 2025, precious metals, particularly gold, were highlighted as the best-performing assets, with gold prices stabilizing above $4000 per ounce and silver outperforming gold due to liquidity factors [4][5]. - The precious metals market in 2025 was characterized by two phases: the first phase involved diversification in asset allocation driven by tariff expectations from the Trump administration, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, while the second phase saw a rally due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][15]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests that gold prices may continue to rise, supported by weakening dollar credibility, increasing inflation expectations, and continued inflows into gold ETFs [6][37]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver outperformed gold in 2025, particularly after April, due to a recovery in risk appetite and ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with prices reaching historical highs above $60 per ounce by December [39][50]. - The silver market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by declining inventories and some countries designating silver as a reserve asset, enhancing its investment appeal [50][51]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the silver market, with significant inventory pressures observed in Shanghai and London, and CME market dynamics reflecting speculative trading [43][44]. - The total supply of silver is projected to remain constrained, with mine production and recycling rates showing modest growth, while demand from industrial applications continues to rise [42]. ETF Inflows and Market Trends - In 2025, there was a notable increase in gold ETF holdings, particularly from Western investors, which played a crucial role in driving gold prices above $4000 per ounce [30][33]. - The inflow of ETFs from North America and Europe significantly contributed to the gold market's performance, marking a shift in investment patterns compared to previous years [31][33].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3100 to $3300 per ounce, with a revised forecast range of $3250 to $3520 per ounce, driven by unexpected ETF inflows and central bank gold purchases [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices recently surpassed $3000 per ounce, influenced by potential U.S. tariffs on the EU and media attention on the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," leading to a rebound in speculative positions [3][4]. - The recent strong ETF inflows indicate increased investor demand for safe-haven assets, which is expected to support higher gold prices [3][7]. - In extreme risk scenarios, gold prices could exceed $4200 per ounce, with mid-term price risks skewed to the upside [3][23]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs has increased its monthly central bank gold purchase assumption from 50 tons to 70 tons, significantly above the pre-2022 average of 17 tons [7][8]. - Emerging market central banks have increased gold purchases by approximately five times since the freezing of Russian central bank assets, a trend expected to continue over the next three years [10][16]. - The average gold reserve ratio for emerging market central banks is significantly lower than that of developed markets, indicating room for growth [11]. Group 3: China’s Role - If the People's Bank of China raises its gold reserve ratio to 20%, it would require approximately three years at a purchase rate of 40 tons per month [12]. - The recent allowance for Chinese insurance companies to invest 1% of their assets in gold is expected to support gold prices, although significant inflows may not occur until a price correction [20][21]. Group 4: Market Risks and Opportunities - The potential for U.S. tariffs on gold is considered low, as it would not significantly advance U.S. industrial policy goals and could complicate financial markets [22]. - The possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement may lead to temporary speculative selling but is unlikely to have a lasting impact on global gold demand [14][24]. - Upward risks to the gold price forecast include increased central bank purchases and a potential shift in ETF demand if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [23].