当地时间1月5日，美股三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.23%、创历史新高，纳指、标普500指数小幅上涨。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.49%。商品市场方面，白银大涨，黄金、原油均上涨。 道指创历史新高 美国三大股指收涨，截至当地时间1月5日收盘，数据显示，道指涨1.23%、创历史新高，纳指涨0.69%，标普500指数涨0.64%。 马杜罗在美首次出庭：我无罪 新华社消息，遭美国强行控制的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇5日中午在美国纽约南区联邦地区法院首次出庭，拒绝美方所谓"犯罪"指控。 马杜罗在法庭上表示，自己是"被绑架的"，"我无罪"，拒绝美方对其一切指控。马杜罗强调，他仍然是委内瑞拉总统。 美国大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.41%。个股方面，特斯拉涨超3%，亚马逊涨近3%，Meta涨超1%，谷歌母公司Alphabet-C涨0.63%， 苹果跌超1%，微软、英伟达小幅下跌。 消息面上，三星联席CEO卢泰文在CES 2026期间透露，公司计划在2026年将搭载谷歌Gemini AI功能的移动设备数量增加一倍，达到8亿台。 中概股走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.49%。个股方面，灿谷涨超16% ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！先来看重要资讯。 马杜罗在美首次出庭：我无罪 据新华社报道，遭美国强行控制的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇5日中午在美国纽约南区联邦地区法院首次 出庭，拒绝美方所谓"犯罪"指控。 马杜罗在法庭上表示，自己是"被绑架的"，"我无罪"，拒绝美方对其一切指控。马杜罗强调，他仍然是 委内瑞拉总统。 马杜罗的妻子西利娅·弗洛雷斯对美方指控同样表示自己无罪。她的代理律师告诉法庭，弗洛雷斯在美 军突袭时受了伤。 法官要求马杜罗3月17日再次出庭参加听证。 委内瑞拉下令搜捕美国侵略支持者 委内瑞拉政府5日正式颁布一项法令，要求国家、州和市各级警察机关立即在全国范围内搜索并抓捕所 有涉及煽动或支持美国武装袭击的人员，并将其移交司法系统进行审判。 法令还规定多项紧急防御措施，如对公共服务基础设施、石油工业及其他国家基础工业实施军事化管 理；加强陆、海、空边境的巡逻和安全保障；在全国各州市部署"综合防御指挥部"等。 这项法令是委内瑞拉总统马杜罗3日遭美方强行控制前签署的。 "我的判断是，我们现在的政策立场已经非常接近'中性'，"卡什卡利指出，"我们需 ...

Core Viewpoint - KeyBanc analysts warn that the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro could trigger larger geopolitical turmoil and significantly increase the risk premium on global oil prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The analysts describe the U.S. action as akin to "stirring a hornet's nest," indicating potential for widespread instability in the region [1] - The repercussions of this event may extend to neighboring countries such as Mexico and Colombia [1] Group 2: Oil Price Implications - The report emphasizes that the current WTI and Brent crude oil prices have not yet reflected this geopolitical shock [1] - Analysts suggest that the situation in Venezuela could push multiple fragile geopolitical situations towards violent conflict, necessitating a higher risk premium in oil prices [1] Group 3: Broader Regional Effects - The U.S. hardline stance may provoke a more aggressive response from Russia regarding the Ukraine situation [1]

WTI原油： 消息面：美东时间1月3日凌晨，美国对南美某国发起军事行动，并对其领导人实施抓捕，引发全球地缘 政治动荡，市场关注度较高，但因处于周末休市时间，国内外原油期货盘面没有交易，接下来市场将密 切关注周一及以后的原油走势。基本面美国原油产量维持高位，OPEC+产量小幅提高，全球总石油库 存高位，美国商业库存偏低，但炼厂开工率持续提升至高位后，库存转移至成品油持续累库。总体看， 原油供需仍偏向过剩，但美国、委内瑞拉地缘升级，关注短期对原油的利多影响。技术面区间震荡偏 弱。 技术面：技术面来看，日线摆动图表显示原油主趋势为下行，但市场动能正逐步走高。若油价突破 58.88美元，主趋势将转为上行；若跌破56.65美元，市场动能则会转向下行。若油价能站稳57.60美元上 方，意味着日内买方力量进场。上行压力增强的情况下，轻质原油期货有望测试另一关键50%回撤位 58.62美元，以及作为长期趋势指标的50日移动平均线58.77美元。若油价未能突破57.60美元，则释放出 卖方进场信号，价格可能下探56.86美元至56.38美元的次级回撤区间。若该区间缺乏逆势买方支撑，油 价或将跌破56.38美元，届时55.61美 ...

今天分享的是：AON怡安：2025年全球风险管理调研报告 报告共计：30页 2025年全球风险管理调研核心总结 《2025年全球风险管理调研》基于63个国家近3000名风险与商业领袖的反馈，揭示了当前风险交汇与颠覆加速的新时代特征。技术变革、贸易波动、气候变 化与人力资本演变四大趋势交织，重塑了全球风险格局，推动企业风险优先级发生重大转变。 当前全球十大风险中，网络攻击或数据泄露稳居首位，业务中断、经济放缓或复苏迟缓紧随其后。值得关注的是，地缘政治动荡自2019年以来排名跃升近30 位，首次跻身前十；气候变化与自然灾害排名也创下历史新高。未来十大风险预测显示，人工智能和气候变化将进一步凸显，分别跃升至第8位和第9位，网 络攻击或数据泄露仍将是核心关切。 这些风险并非孤立存在，而是呈现出强烈的系统性与关联性。技术风险超越网络与人工智能范畴，渗透企业各环节；地缘政治动荡影响供应链、监管环境及 企业资产负债表；气候变化作为"风险催化器"，加剧了供应链中断等多种风险；人力资本相关风险虽未进入前20名，却是企业财务损失的常见诱因，且与技 术变革带来的岗位重塑相互作用。 传统风险管理框架已难以应对复杂多变的风险环境，仅1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term bull market for gold is not over, but a correction is expected in the short to medium term due to rapid price increases in 2025, leading to a forecast of a volatile market until the end of the year, followed by steady long-term growth [2][12]. Long-term Factors - Gold prices are influenced by long-term factors such as currency devaluation, global debt, and geopolitical issues, which are expected to have a lasting impact [7][8]. - The trend of de-dollarization is ongoing, with many countries increasing their gold reserves to support their currencies, which is likely to continue for over three years [8][12]. - Global debt and credit are expanding, particularly U.S. debt, with some countries selling U.S. bonds to buy gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [8][12]. - Historical inflation trends suggest that inflation may rise significantly after 2025, potentially leading to a substantial increase in gold prices [9][12]. - The global economy is entering a recession, which is expected to last for over a decade, further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [9][10]. Medium-term Factors - The ongoing divergence in global monetary policies is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment, providing support for gold prices over the next three years [10][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and the current economic cycle suggests that demand for gold as a safe asset will continue to rise [10][12]. Short-term Factors - The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is decreasing, which has led to a recent decline in gold prices, but the overall outlook remains bullish for the end of the year [10][12]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China, have created short-term pressures on gold prices [11][12]. - Recent price movements indicate that gold is currently experiencing a downward adjustment, with key support levels identified at $3,900 and $3,520 [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - Investors and the general public are advised to consider allocating 5% to 30% of their asset portfolio to physical gold or gold ETFs, reflecting a long-term optimistic view on gold [6][13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of 98.3%, and a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points by December with a probability of 93.4% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September has been delayed due to the government shutdown, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year increase [3] - There are indications that inflation may be cooling faster than anticipated, which could support the Fed's decision to lower rates [3] Group 2 - The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for nearly half of Russia's oil exports [5] - The sanctions could significantly impact Russia's military operations in Ukraine, particularly as winter approaches, a period typically advantageous for Russia [5] - Market analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions, combined with expectations of Fed rate cuts, may provide a buying opportunity for gold, with potential price targets of $3900-$4400 [5]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling below $4250 per ounce, a decrease of 2.06%, and COMEX gold futures down 2.02% [3] - Spot silver dropped below $50 per ounce for the first time since October 10, with a daily decline of 5.32%, while COMEX silver futures fell 5.36% [3] - NYMEX palladium futures plummeted by 5.71%, currently at $1449.5 per ounce, and NYMEX platinum futures decreased by 5.16%, now at $1567 per ounce [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown crisis is expected to improve this week, as indicated by White House Chief Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett, which may influence market sentiment [4] - UBS global wealth management strategist Sagar Khandelwal noted that increasing political and trade uncertainties are driving recent gold price momentum, with expectations of gold reaching $4700 per ounce by Q1 next year [4] - Global gold demand is projected to reach approximately 4850 tons this year, the highest since 2011, driven by strong central bank purchases and potential shifts in private investor behavior towards gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, stated that holding gold is "somewhat rational" and predicted that gold prices could easily rise to $5,000 or even $10,000 in the current environment, marking one of the few times in his career he has viewed gold allocation as "half-rational" [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices reached a historic high of $4,200 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 60%, surpassing stock market performance [2][4] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset reflects concerns over inflation and geopolitical instability, with central bank gold purchases being a major driver of the price increase [4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Allocation - Despite the significant rise in gold prices, Wall Street's allocation to gold remains low at only 2.4%, according to a recent Bank of America fund manager survey [5] - In comparison, cryptocurrency allocation is even lower at 0.4%, indicating that gold is still relatively under-allocated [8] Group 3: Changing Perspectives Among Wall Street Leaders - The statements from Dimon and Ken Griffin indicate a shift in perspective among Wall Street leaders who previously held reservations about precious metals, now reassessing gold's investment value [11] - Dimon’s mention of a 4% holding cost primarily applies to wealthy individuals needing to store large amounts of gold, while the holding cost for smaller investors is nearly zero [11] - Griffin's view of investors turning to gold as a sign of declining confidence in the dollar reflects rising concerns about the stability of fiat currencies [11]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risks surrounding the Eurozone, particularly due to the ongoing situation in France, are negatively impacting the Euro/USD exchange rate, which has been under pressure for four consecutive days [2] Group 1: Political Situation in France - The political situation in France remains unstable, with President Macron facing significant electoral challenges [2] - The current political turmoil in France is overshadowing the temporary government shutdown in the United States [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The latest developments in Europe are adversely affecting the Euro, which is currently trading slightly below the critical level of 1.16, indicating potential for further dollar appreciation [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes revealed ongoing concerns among several committee members regarding inflation, which raises questions about future monetary policy despite the possibility of two rate cuts [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The IC Forex platform remains cautious about the strong bullish outlook for the Euro as predicted by several large investment firms, suggesting a likelihood of consolidation around current levels [2] - The inability to access key statistical data due to the U.S. government shutdown is being closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [2]