证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中国海油（600938.SH） 中国海洋石油（0883.HK） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金 隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] Q3 受台风影响利润环比下滑，业绩符合预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]10 月 30 日晚，中国海油发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年 前三季度，公司实现营收 3125.03 亿元，同比-4.15%；实现归母净利润 1019.71 亿元，同比-12.59%；扣非后归母净 ...

➢ 汇兑损益影响期间费用，25Q3 利润环比下滑。25Q3，公司实现营业收入 1049.0 亿元，同比上升 5.7%，环比上升 4.1%；实现归母净利润 324.4 亿元， 同比下降 12.2%，环比下降 1.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 315.6 亿元，同比下降 13.9%，环比下降 2.4%。环比来看，25Q3 公司实现毛利润 522.4 亿元，环比下 降 0.7%；期间费用为 43.6 亿元，环比增长 87.0%，主要是受汇兑损益影响，财 务费用环比增长了 17.2 亿元。 ➢ 油气产量同比稳步增长。25Q3，公司实现油气净产量 1.94 亿桶油当量，同 比增长 7.9%，环比下降 1.1%。分区域看，公司在国内/海外的油气净产量分别 为 1.34/0.59 亿桶油当量，同比增长 10.4%/2.1%，环比下降 1.0%/1.5%，占总 产量的比重为 69.3%/30.7%。分产品看，石油产量为 1.49 亿桶，同比增长 7.3%、 环比下降 0.9%；天然气产量 2612 亿立方英尺，同比增长 10.9%、环比下降 0.8%。 中国海油（600938.SH）2025 年三季报点评 业绩稳健，持续上产 2 ...

2025 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 前三季度油气产量显著增长，盈利能力保持韧性 ——中国海油（600938.SH）2025 年三季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：27.01 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 25H1 油气产量再创新高，油价波动期盈利 韧性凸显——中国海油（600938.SH）2025 年半年报点评（2025-08-28） 要点 事件： 公司发布 2025 年三季报。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业总收入 3125 亿元， 同比-4.1%，实现归母净利润 1020 亿元，同比-12.6%。2025Q3 单季，公司实现营 业总收入 1049 亿元，同比+5.7%，环比+4.1%，实现归母净利润 324 亿元，同比 -12.2%，环比-1.6%。 点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue at 21,134 billion and net profit at 300 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% and 32.2% respectively [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 7,044 billion, down 10.9% year-on-year but up 4.6% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 85 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year and an increase of 3.4% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1,148 billion, an increase of 13.0% year-on-year [5] Group 2: Oil Price and Market Conditions - International oil prices experienced a downward trend, with the average Brent crude price at 70.9 USD/barrel, down 14.4% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 2025, Brent crude futures averaged 68.17 USD/barrel, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year but an increase of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter [5] Group 3: Business Segment Analysis - Upstream segment profits were impacted by falling oil prices, with a total profit of 381 billion, down 15.8% year-on-year, while Q3 profits were 126 billion, down 12.4% year-on-year but up 5.7% quarter-on-quarter [6][7] - The refining segment saw profits of 70 billion, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year, with Q3 profits at 37 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [8] - The sales segment reported a profit of 128 billion, down 35.6% year-on-year, with Q3 profits at 34 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase [9] - The chemical segment faced a loss of 82 billion, worsening by 34 billion year-on-year, with Q3 losses at 41 billion [10]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Three" oil companies in China, namely China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), have demonstrated strong resilience and maintained high profit levels despite a decline in international oil prices during the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - CNPC reported a net profit of 126.279 billion yuan for the first three quarters, while Sinopec achieved a net profit of 29.984 billion yuan, and CNOOC recorded a net profit of 101.971 billion yuan [1]. - The average Brent crude oil futures price was $69.91 per barrel, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% [1]. Production and Growth - All three companies have focused on increasing reserves and production, with oil and gas equivalent production growing steadily: CNPC's production was 1,377.2 million barrels (up 2.6% year-on-year), Sinopec's was 394.48 million barrels (up 2.2%), and CNOOC's was 578.3 million barrels (up 6.7%) [2]. - Natural gas production saw significant growth, with CNOOC's output increasing by 11.6%, Sinopec's by 4.9%, and CNPC's by 4.6%, with domestic production rising by 5.2% [2]. Strategic Focus - CNOOC's management emphasized that natural gas is a key strategic focus, with production growth driven by major projects such as Deepwater No. 1 Phase II and Dongfang 13-2 [3]. - The company aims to maintain cost competitiveness and pursue high-quality development, ensuring sustainable long-term value for shareholders [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is experiencing stable cash flow from its natural gas business despite a decline in overall revenue and profit due to falling international oil prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, CNOOC reported a revenue decline of 4.1% year-on-year to 312.5 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 12.6% to 101.97 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3, revenue increased by 5.7% year-on-year to 104.89 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 12.2% to 32.44 billion yuan [1]. - The average price of Brent crude oil fell by 14.6% to $69.91 per barrel, impacting CNOOC's oil liquid average selling price, which dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel [1]. Production and Cost Management - CNOOC's oil and gas net production increased by 6.7% year-on-year to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, aided by contributions from domestic and international projects [2]. - The company successfully managed its costs, with the cost per barrel decreasing by 2.8% to $27.35 [2]. - Natural gas production reached 777.5 billion cubic feet, a nearly 12% increase, significantly outpacing the overall production growth [2]. Natural Gas Business - The average selling price of natural gas rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, leading to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue to 41.53 billion yuan [2]. - CNOOC emphasizes the importance of its natural gas business due to its longer stable production periods, higher recovery rates, and lower operational costs compared to oil projects [2]. Market Outlook - The outlook for oil prices remains uncertain due to various factors, including international monetary policies and production policies from major oil-producing countries [3]. - CNOOC plans to maintain a focus on high-quality development and cost competitiveness to navigate through industry cycles [3]. - Several major international oil companies have initiated layoffs in response to the ongoing decline in oil prices, indicating broader industry challenges [3].

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 312.503 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 101.971 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2][5] - In Q3 alone, revenue increased by 5.7% year-on-year to 104.895 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 12.2% to 32.438 billion yuan [2][5] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to a significant drop in international oil prices, with the average Brent crude oil futures price at 69.91 USD per barrel, down 14.6% year-on-year [5] - Operating cash flow remained strong at 171.749 billion yuan, despite a 6.0% year-on-year decline [5] Production and Business Highlights - The company's oil and gas net production increased by 6.7% year-on-year to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent [2][6] - Domestic production grew by 8.6% to 400.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, driven by new projects [6] - Natural gas production saw an 11.6% increase, with sales revenue rising by 15.2% year-on-year, providing a buffer against declining oil prices [6] Cost Control and Capital Expenditure - The average cost per barrel of oil decreased to 27.35 USD, down 2.8% year-on-year, indicating strong cost competitiveness [7] - Capital expenditure was 86.034 billion yuan, a reduction of 9.8% year-on-year, reflecting adjustments in project work [7] Strategic Developments - The company made five new discoveries and assessed 22 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters, enhancing its resource base [8] - A total of 14 new projects were launched, with significant contributions from key projects like "Deep Sea No. 1 Phase II" and "Bohai Zhong 19-2" [8] Asset and Liability Structure - Total assets reached 1.13 trillion yuan, a 6.6% increase from the beginning of the year, with cash reserves rising to 242.029 billion yuan [3][9] - The company has a low short-term debt pressure, with a debt-to-asset ratio of approximately 30% [9] Future Outlook - The company's performance is highly sensitive to international oil price fluctuations, with potential profit recovery linked to oil price increases [10][11] - The expansion of the natural gas business and progress in overseas projects are expected to be key growth drivers [11][12] - Ongoing adjustments in capital expenditure and cost control will be critical for future performance [12][13]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 34.85 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - The net profit for the same period reached 3.39 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 28.6% [1] - The energy service market is facing increased uncertainty and volatility, with downward pressure on oil prices [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters: 34.85 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [1] - Net profit: 3.39 billion yuan, up 28.6% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The drilling segment improved operational efficiency, leading to a significant increase in revenue and a higher platform rental rate [1] - The technology segment focused on integrating the industrial and innovation chains, resulting in increased operational volume in major business lines [1] - The shipping segment maintained its leading market share domestically, with an increase in cumulative operating days [1] - The geophysical segment concentrated on high-return businesses, optimizing capacity layout, and achieving growth in both revenue and profit [1] Strategic Focus - The company aims to enhance core functions and competitiveness by centering on customer needs and value creation [2] - There is a commitment to comprehensive industrial upgrades and strengthening international operational efficiency [2] - The company is focused on improving governance capabilities and levels to drive production and operations to new heights [2]

Group 1 - Despite fluctuations in international oil prices, the domestic oilfield service industry maintains high prosperity, with listed companies showing stable growth in net profits for the first three quarters [1] - CNOOC Energy Development Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 33.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit of 2.853 billion yuan, up 6.11% [1] - Potential Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 427 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.26%, with Q3 revenue reaching 196 million yuan, up 63.54%, and net profit turning positive at 9.618 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Global exploration and development activities remain active, with domestic policies supporting the oil service industry's prosperity [2] - The capital expenditure of the "Big Three" oil companies remains high, ensuring growth in upstream reserves and benefiting subordinate oil service companies [2] - Despite declining oil prices, major oil and gas companies can maintain profitability, allowing capital expenditure to continue growing [2] Group 3 - In September, China National Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd. signed an EPC contract for an LNG pipeline project in the UAE worth 3.688 billion yuan and another contract for an Iraqi seawater pipeline project worth approximately 18.032 billion yuan [3] - Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation signed new contracts totaling 82.21 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, with overseas contracts reaching 26.28 billion yuan, up 62.0% [3] - Chinese oil and gas companies and service companies are accelerating their international expansion, leveraging advanced technology and cost advantages [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but faced a decline in Q3 performance due to seasonal fluctuations and external factors [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.85 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded total revenue of 11.35 billion yuan, down 5.7% year-on-year and 9.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year and 17.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Operational Insights - The company maintained a steady growth in the oilfield service industry, benefiting from policies aimed at increasing reserves and production, despite the international oil price decline [5]. - The company focused on improving operational quality, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20.5% for the first three quarters, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, and a cost-to-profit margin of 9.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Cost Management and Transformation - The company implemented cost control measures, achieving a gross profit margin of 16.16%, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company is accelerating the transformation of traditional industries towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, launching ten digital management modules and establishing smart factories [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), is actively pursuing a seven-year action plan for oil and gas reserve increases, with production growth targets of 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% for 2025 to 2027 [7]. - The company is enhancing its core capabilities in energy technology services, with significant growth in self-developed equipment and a shift towards value-driven operations [7].