2025 年 6 月 8 日 行业研究 坚守长期主义之九："三桶油"以自身发展确定性应对外部不确定性 ——石油化工行业周报第 406 期（20250602—20250608） 要点 地缘政治紧张叠加 OPEC+增产意愿，油价存在较大不确定性。本周俄乌、伊 核谈判等地缘政治冲突再起，油价持续反弹，截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日，布伦特、 WTI 原油分别报收 66.65、64.77 美元/桶，较上周分别+6.5%、+6.5%，较 5 月 1 日分别+7.7%、+9.8%。展望后市，油价地缘政治风险溢价有望提升，但 是 OPEC+当前增产意愿较强，OPEC+此前已同意在 5 月、6 月和 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日，OPEC+的增产或将使油价面临压力。 "三桶油"上游加强"增储上产"，应对外部能源安全挑战。2025 年以来地 缘政治局势不确定性较强，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶油"将继 续维持高资本开支，大力推进"增储上产"，2025 年计划分别增长 1.6%、 1.3%、5.9%。（1）中国石油聚焦重点盆地重点地区加大风险勘探力度，把 天然气业务作为战略性、成长性和价值性工程大力发展，2024 ...

石油石化 行业研究/行业周报 关注 OPEC 增产进度，油价或延续震荡 ——石油化工行业周报（20250526-20250530） ◼ 市场行情回顾 市场表现 本周（20250526-20250530）中信石油石化板块上涨约 0.37%，上证综 合指数下滑约 0.03%，同上证综合指数相比，石油石化板块领先约 0.39 个百分点。子板块方面，石油石化子板块涨跌互现，其中工程服务、 油田服务等子板块涨幅居前。 本周（20250526-20250530）石油石化板块领涨个股包括恒通股份、洪 田股份、康普顿、海油发展、科力股份等；领跌个股包括广聚能源、 东方盛虹、润贝航科、蒙泰高新、恒力石化等。其中民营大炼化公司 周度涨跌幅如下：恒逸石化（+0.50%）、荣盛石化（+0.11%）、桐昆股 份（-1.10%）、新凤鸣（-1.89%）、恒力石化（-2.57%）、东方盛虹（-4.49%） 等。 ◼ 核心观点 上游板块方面，上周国际油价有所下滑。从周度数据以及 EIA 短期展 望数据来看，尽管未来两年美国原油产量维持增长，但是国际油价重 心仍有望中高位震荡，持续利好上游油气公司。油服方面，北美活跃 钻机数周环比下滑，同比减 ...

2025 年 6 月 2 日 行业研究 OPEC+将于 7 月增产，"三桶油"增储上产坚定保障能源安全 ——石油化工行业周报第 405 期（20250526—20250601） 要点 OPEC+宣布 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日，关注增产执行进度。本周 OPEC+作出连 续第三个月大幅增产决策，引发市场对原油供给端担忧，油价下跌。OPEC+ 同意连续第三个月将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，规模持平前两次增产。 OPEC+曾经于 4 月、5 月宣布 5 月、6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日，为 3 月原定增产 计划额的三倍。本轮 OPEC+增产的直接原因是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为， 特别是伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦，此外，由于当前油价已低于美国页岩油的边际成 本，OPEC+的连续增产计划将起到打击美国页岩油产量的作用，从而提升自 身在全球原油市场的份额。超产成员国的产量约束和美国页岩油的产量缩减将 影响 OPEC+后续决策，IEA 预计 OPEC+今年的产量将增加 31 万桶/日，2026 年将增加 15 万桶/日，建议密切关注 OPEC+增产执行进度。 美国页岩油产量增速有望放缓，抵御部分供给增长冲击。近期油价 ...

"三桶油"大力推进新能源产业发展，向综合能源供应商转型 "三桶油"扎实推进绿色低碳转型，积极布局新兴产业。（1）中国石油始终把天然气业务作为战略性、成 长性和价值性工程大力发展，2024年天然气产量占比超过油气总量的50%；积极推动构建新型能源体系， 天然气发电总装机规模持续扩大，风光发电实现跨越发展，大力发展CCUS等低碳零碳产业，努力做绿色 转型的引领者；认真履行社会责任，以客户为中心强化供应保障。在新能源领域，2024年，中国石油累计 建成风光发电装机规模超1000万千瓦，高纯氢产能达8100吨/年，同比增长23%。已建成充（换）电站3803 座，充电枪4.7万把，2025年4月充电量突破1亿千瓦时大关，创单月充电量最高纪录。（2）中国石化与宁 德时代深度合作，4月与宁德时代签署产业与资本合作协议，5月20日作为全球最大基石投资者参与宁德时 代在港上市，双方以"产业合作+资本合作"的方式，携手构建全国换电网络生态和标准建设，统一管理运 营换电资产，今年将建设不少于500座换电站，未来以共同建设1万座换电站为目标，推动我国换电站新型 基础设施建设。（3）中国海油积极推进CCUS项目建设，5月22日我国首个 ...

25Q1 油气当量产量维持高增，天然气产量同比增长10.2%公司持续加快上产步伐，25Q1 实现净产量 188.8 百万桶油当量，同比增长4.8%。其中，原油产量同比+3.4%，天然气产量同比+10.2%；中国净产 量130.8百万桶油当量，同比+6.2%，主要得益于渤中19-6 等油气田的贡献；海外净产量58 百万桶油当 量，同比+1.9%，主要由于巴西Mero2 等项目的贡献。实现价格方面，25Q1 公司平均实现油价72.65 美 元/桶，同比-7.7%，平均实现天然气价格为7.78 美元/千立方英尺，同比+1.2%。2025Q1，公司资本支出 277 亿元，有力支撑新项目建设和产量增长。 25Q1 公司共获得2 个新发现，并成功评价14 个含油气构造。其中，惠州19-6油田探明地质储量超1 亿 吨油当量，涠洲10-5 油气田展示了北部湾盆地潜山领域广阔的勘探前景；成功评价绥中36-1 南，有望 成为中型油田。期内，番禺10/11 区块联合开发项目、东方29-1 气田开发项目、渤中26-6 油田开发项目 （一期）、文昌19-1 油田二期项目以及巴西Buzios7 项目等多个新项目已成功投产。其他新项目正在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - The company's performance demonstrates resilience during periods of oil price fluctuations, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6][11] - CNOOC's net profit for Q1 2025 is projected to be 366 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.84% [5][11] - The company continues to enhance its production capacity and maintain cost advantages, with a focus on high-quality development and stable production growth [10][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CNOOC achieved total revenue of 1,069 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14% but an increase of 13.09% compared to the previous quarter [5] - The average realized oil price was 72.65 USD per barrel, down 7.7% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 1.2% to 7.78 USD per thousand cubic feet [7] Production and Exploration - CNOOC's net production in Q1 2025 reached 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with natural gas production growing by 10.2% [7] - The company made two new discoveries and successfully evaluated 14 oil and gas structures during the quarter, indicating strong exploration potential [8] Cost Management - The company reported a decrease in oil production costs to 27.03 USD per barrel, down 2.0% year-on-year, showcasing its effective cost control measures [9] - CNOOC's operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 573 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% but maintaining a high level of cash flow [6] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to maintain high capital expenditures in 2025, with a budget of 1250-1350 billion yuan to support stable production growth [10] - The company aims for a production target of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, with a focus on sustainable growth in the following years [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, despite an increase in oil and gas production, highlighting the impact of falling international oil prices on financial performance [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CNOOC achieved operating revenue of 106.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.56 billion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year [1] - The average realized oil price was 72.65 USD/barrel, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, while the average realized gas price increased by 1.2% to 7.78 USD/thousand cubic feet [2] Production and Exploration - CNOOC's net production reached 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, with domestic production rising by 6.2% [1][2] - The company made two new discoveries and successfully evaluated 14 oil and gas structures during the quarter [2] - Significant contributions to production came from the Bohai region and overseas projects, particularly from Brazil's Mero2 [1][2] Capital Expenditure and Projects - Capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 27.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [2] - Several new projects, including the Panyu 10/11 block and the Wenchang 19-1 oil field, have been successfully put into production [2][3] - The Wenchang 9-7 oil field development project was announced to have commenced production, with an expected peak output of about 12,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2027 [3][4] Future Outlook - CNOOC's controlling shareholder announced plans to increase shareholdings in the company by 2 to 4 billion yuan over the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term investment value [3] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and achieve its annual production and operational targets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 594 million yuan, up 18.38% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.42% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 46.53% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 594 million yuan, marking an 18.38% increase year-on-year and a 38.61% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The annualized ROE for Q1 2025 was 8.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cost-to-profit ratio improved to 6.6%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Industry and Market Trends - The international oil price fluctuated at a high level, with the average Brent crude oil price in Q1 2025 at $74.98 per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The domestic oilfield service market continues to grow steadily, driven by high oil prices and national energy security strategies [2]. - The global oil service market is expected to maintain growth, with a projected market size of $326.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [5]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a gross profit margin of 12.90%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points [4]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation, aiming to develop 10 digital products by 2024 and enhance operational efficiency through the application of artificial intelligence [4]. - The production capacity of the intelligent injection workshop is expected to increase from 300 sets per year to 2,000 sets per year, with a first-pass yield rate exceeding 99% [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing "increase reserves and production" initiatives led by its parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), with production growth targets of 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company is focused on providing comprehensive production and sales support in offshore oil production, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability [5]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 4.262 billion yuan, 4.698 billion yuan, and 5.215 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil service sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The global upstream capital expenditure is expected to rebound in 2025, with a projected increase of over $582.4 billion, representing a 5% year-on-year growth, which lays a solid foundation for the oil service sector's prosperity [1][10] - The average day rate for global self-elevating platforms reached $103,600 per day in March 2025, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, while semi-submersible platforms averaged $248,400 per day, up 2.7% year-on-year, indicating sustained market demand [1][15] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are increasing capital expenditures and oil and gas production, which is expected to benefit their affiliated oil service companies significantly [2][18] - The performance of oil service companies continues to improve, with notable profit growth reported for subsidiaries of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in Q1 2025 [3][30] - The operational quality of oil service companies is improving, enhancing their competitiveness in the international market [4][37] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Prosperity and Performance - Global upstream capital expenditure is projected to recover, with 2024 offshore exploration and development investment expected to grow by 8.6% year-on-year, while onshore investment is anticipated to decline by 7.9% due to stagnation in North America [1][10] - The oil service market is expected to reach $316.1 billion in 2024, growing by 3%, and $326.5 billion in 2025, with a 3.3% increase [10] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China plan to maintain high capital expenditures in 2025, with respective budgets of CNY 210 billion, CNY 76.7 billion, and CNY 130 billion, supporting production growth [2][18] 2. Performance of Oil Service Companies - CNOOC's subsidiaries have shown significant profit growth, with net profits for CNOOC Services, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Development growing at CAGRs of 15%, 22%, and 23% from 2022 to 2024 [3][30] - In Q1 2025, CNOOC Services, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Development reported net profits of CNY 88.7 million, CNY 54.1 million, and CNY 59.4 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 40%, 14%, and 18% respectively [3][30] 3. Improvement in Operational Quality - The gross margin of CNOOC's subsidiaries improved in Q1 2025, with increases of 1.9 percentage points for CNOOC Services and 3.9 percentage points for CNOOC Engineering compared to the previous year [4][37] - The annualized ROE for CNOOC Services and CNOOC Engineering increased by 0.7 percentage points and decreased by 0.3 percentage points respectively, indicating a trend of improving operational quality [4][37] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their affiliated oil service firms, as well as leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors [5]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 "三桶油" 24 年再创佳绩，油价波动期业绩韧性凸显 2024 年布油均价为 79.86 美元 / 桶，同比 -2.8% ，总体维持高位，但 24 年 9 月至 12 月受中东地缘政治缓 和、原油需求预期下行等因素影响，国际油价快速下跌。中国石油实现归母净利润 1647 亿元，同比 +2% ，中国海油实现归母净利润 1379 亿元，同比 +11% ，中国石化受炼化业务拖累，实现归母净利润 503 亿 元，同比 -17% ，但上游板块息税前利润逆势增长 24% 。 2024 年，海外石油巨头受炼油盈利走弱、天然 气销量下降等因素影响，业绩持续下行。埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、 BP 、道达尔 24 年归母净利润分别 同比 -6% ...