Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huazhong Securities has given China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) a "buy" rating due to its steady growth in oil and gas net production and strengthened cost competitiveness [1] - CNOOC is actively advancing new project launches, which will contribute to continuous reserve increases and production growth [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the risk factors, including the potential for new project progress to fall short of expectations, changes in industry policies, and significant fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 312.5 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 102 billion RMB, down 12.59% year-on-year [1]. - The average realized oil price for the first three quarters was 68.29 USD per barrel, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year, while the average realized gas price increased by 1.0% to 7.86 USD per thousand cubic feet [5]. - The company achieved a net production of 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, with significant contributions from new projects [5]. - The company continues to maintain its position as a leading international energy company, with a strong resource base and production growth capabilities [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 454.1 billion RMB, 485.4 billion RMB, and 509.7 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 145.6 billion RMB, 154.1 billion RMB, and 159.3 billion RMB [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.8 times for 2025, 8.4 times for 2026, and 8.1 times for 2027 [6]. - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 30.1%, indicating strong financial stability [2]. Production and Development - The company successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures and made 5 new discoveries in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - A total of 14 new projects were put into production during the first three quarters, including significant developments in offshore oil fields [5]. Market Position - The company is the largest oil and gas producer in China's offshore areas, with a well-established exploration and production infrastructure [5]. - The company has diversified its asset structure globally, holding interests in major oil and gas projects in regions such as Guyana and Brazil [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed resilience in Q3 performance due to effective cost control and production increases despite fluctuating international oil prices [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 312.5 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 102.0 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue reached 104.9 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 32.4 billion yuan, down 12.2% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Oil and Gas Production - The company achieved a net oil and gas production of 57.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, with natural gas production rising by 11.6% [6]. - The average realized oil price was 68.29 USD per barrel, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the average realized natural gas price was 7.86 USD per thousand cubic feet, up 1.0% year-on-year [6]. Cost Management - The company maintained a competitive cost structure, with the main cost per barrel of oil equivalent at 27.35 USD, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [7]. - Operating expenses per barrel were 7.12 USD, down 1.2% year-on-year, and depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) costs were 13.87 USD, down 0.6% year-on-year [7]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was 86.0 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with a budget of 125.0 to 135.0 billion yuan for 2025 [8]. - The production target for 2025 is set at 76.0 to 78.0 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q3, indicating a mixed performance amid fluctuating oil prices and production challenges [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 102 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 100.9 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 104.9 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.4 billion yuan, down 12.2% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter; non-recurring net profit was 31.6 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year and 2.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved a net oil and gas production of 578 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, with oil production at 445 million barrels (up 5.4%) and natural gas production at 7.775 billion cubic feet (up 11.6%) [2]. - In Q3 2025, net oil and gas production was 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, with oil production at 149 million barrels (down 1.1%) and natural gas production at 2.613 billion cubic feet (down 0.7%) [2]. - The average realized oil price in Q3 2025 was $66.62 per barrel, with a Brent crude discount of $1.55 per barrel, indicating a narrowing discount compared to previous periods [2]. Cost Management - The company reported a barrel of oil equivalent cost of $27.35 in the first three quarters, down $0.79 year-on-year, while Q3 cost was approximately $28.16, up $1.31 quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company maintained a period expense ratio of 3.12% in the first three quarters, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the USD exchange rate [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 141.7 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with Q3 cash flow at 62.6 billion yuan, up 21% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was 86 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with exploration, development, and production expenditures showing mixed trends [3]. - The company plans capital expenditure of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025, expecting stable cash flow to support dividend levels [3]. - Due to declining oil price expectations, the company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected profits of 129.8 billion, 134.4 billion, and 138.1 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 10X, 10X, and 9X respectively [4].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21,693 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, and a net profit of 1,263 billion, down 4.9% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7,192 billion, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 423 billion, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 21.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability [1] Production and Pricing - The company's oil and gas production reached 137.7 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with crude oil production at 71.4 million barrels, up 0.8% [2] - The average oil price for the first three quarters was 65.55 USD per barrel, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw an estimated oil price of approximately 64.2 USD per barrel, up 1.9 USD from the previous quarter [2] - The upstream segment reported an operating profit of 125.1 billion, down 13% year-on-year, but is expected to maintain a good performance due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Refining and Chemical Sector - The company processed 104.1 million barrels of crude oil in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while the production of refined oil products was 89.59 million tons, down 0.4% [3] - The refining segment achieved an operating profit of 16.2 billion, up 6.3% year-on-year, with refining business profits increasing by 22.7% [3] - The chemical business, however, saw a significant decline in profits, down 48.9%, indicating challenges in that segment [3] Sales Performance - The total sales of refined oil products reached 120.876 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while domestic sales were 89.64 million tons, up 0.05% [4] - The sales segment reported an operating profit of 11.6 billion, down 9.9% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on refined oil sales [4] - Natural gas sales reached 2,185 billion cubic feet, up 4.2% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 1,709 billion cubic feet, up 4.9% [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 156.1 billion, 160.6 billion, and 166.9 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 11X, 10X, and 10X, respectively, and maintains a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857) [5] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a stable development in the natural gas business [5] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2,169.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 126.3 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 21.5% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.8 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2,969.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 156.142 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [4] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.85 yuan [4] - The company’s oil and gas production reached 1.377 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [5] - The average oil price for Q3 2025 was approximately 64.2 USD per barrel, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9 USD [5] Operational Insights - The refining segment showed improvement, with a processing volume of 1.041 billion barrels of crude oil in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [5] - The sales of refined oil products reached 12.0876 million tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [5] - The natural gas sales volume was 218.5 billion cubic feet, up 4.2% year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 23.8% in the natural gas sales segment [5]

Core Insights - The oil and gas industry in China has successfully navigated complex international energy challenges during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, achieving a production equivalent of 400 million tons and enhancing energy security through various strategies [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Achievements - The industry has discovered 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with crude oil production exceeding 200 million tons and natural gas production reaching 260 billion cubic meters, ahead of the "14th Five-Year Plan" targets [2][3] - Significant advancements in oil and gas extraction technologies have been made, particularly in the Ordos Basin and Tarim Basin, leading to increased production and exploration of deep resources [2][6] - The domestic oil and gas production has maintained a steady output of over 200 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 6% for natural gas, contributing to a reduction in external dependency [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The industry has shifted from following to leading in technology, with 54.3% of new oil and gas reserves coming from deep and ultra-deep layers, significantly enhancing self-sufficiency [6][7] - Major breakthroughs in deep-water drilling technologies have been achieved, with the "Deep Sea No. 1" project marking a historic leap in exploration capabilities [7][8] - The integration of digital technologies and smart systems has improved exploration success rates and operational safety, driving the industry's high-quality development [8][9] Group 3: Future Directions - The oil and gas sector is set to enter a new phase of high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on safety, efficiency, and green innovation [1][9] - The industry will increasingly explore unconventional resources and deep-water areas, with a strong emphasis on infrastructure development for gas storage and peak-shaving capabilities [9][10] - The transition towards a low-carbon future will be supported by advancements in hydrogen energy and carbon capture technologies, promoting a comprehensive energy base [10][11]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中国海油（600938.SH） 中国海洋石油（0883.HK） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金 隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] Q3 受台风影响利润环比下滑，业绩符合预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]10 月 30 日晚，中国海油发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年 前三季度，公司实现营收 3125.03 亿元，同比-4.15%；实现归母净利润 1019.71 亿元，同比-12.59%；扣非后归母净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 27.01 CNY per share [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance with a focus on production growth, despite a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][5]. - Oil and gas production showed a year-on-year increase, with net production reaching 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7.9% year-on-year [2]. - The Brent crude oil price showed a slight recovery, and the company has effectively managed its costs, with a major cost per barrel of 27.35 USD, down 2.8% year-on-year [3]. - The company has continued to invest in new projects, successfully evaluating 22 oil and gas structures and bringing 14 new projects into production [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 312.5 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.97 billion CNY, down 12.6% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 104.9 billion CNY, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 12.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 123.72 billion CNY, 127.54 billion CNY, and 131.39 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.60 CNY, 2.68 CNY, and 2.76 CNY [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in profitability despite a decline in oil prices, with a significant increase in oil and gas production in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5] - The company achieved total revenue of 312.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 102 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][5] - The report highlights the company's strong cash flow and effective cost control measures, which have contributed to its stable performance during periods of fluctuating oil prices [5][9] Summary by Sections Production and Revenue - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net oil and gas production of 578 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with crude oil production up 5.4% and natural gas production up 11.6% [6] - The average realized oil price was 68.29 USD per barrel, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the average natural gas price was 7.86 USD per thousand cubic feet, up 1.0% year-on-year [6] Cost Control - The company reported a decrease in the cost per barrel of oil equivalent to 27.35 USD, down 2.8% year-on-year, with operational costs and depreciation also showing slight reductions [7] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - The company completed capital expenditures of 86 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year, with a budget of 125-135 billion yuan for 2025 to support stable production growth [8] - The production targets for 2025 to 2027 are set at 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent, with expected growth rates of 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% respectively [8] Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 135.4 billion, 139.8 billion, and 144.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.85, 2.94, and 3.04 yuan per share [9][10]