"这是最好的时代，也是最坏的时代"——这句出自狄更斯《双城记》的开篇名言，在一个半世纪后的今天，却精准地描述着化石能源所处的现实。 它们共同驱动着全球经济，维系现代社会的运转。然而一个巨大的转折正在发生：2023至2050年间，全球GDP规模预计将翻一番，而碳排放却要大幅下 降！这意味着，全球能源体系将面临根本性重塑。 那么，石油和天然气的饭碗是否会被可再生能源取代？可再生能源又能否真正挑起大梁？ 9月25日，bp集团正式发布了2025年版《bp世界能源展望》（以下简称"《展望》"），从"当前轨迹"和"低于2℃"两种情景，探讨影响全球能源消费和供给 的诸多因素，展望未来三十年能源转型的前景。 现在，就让我们一起走进这份前瞻报告，寻找困惑能源从业者的答案线索！ 目前，石油最大的消费来自道路运输领域，但很多人忽略它另一重重要的身份——化工原料，正是这种"燃料"与"原料"的双重身份，决定了石油需求的未 来前景： 《展望》预测，随着车辆效率提高和电动化进程加快，石油在公路运输中的作用会逐渐减少；而以塑料为代表的石化产品需求将持续增长，推动石化原料 用油需求不断提升，逐步取代道路交通燃料，成为石油需求增长的主要来源。 ...

Core Insights - The report by iGDP and the Guangzhou Institute of Energy Research outlines the pathways for Guangdong's low-carbon transition, emphasizing the province's potential to achieve its "dual carbon" goals on time or even ahead of schedule [1][2] Group 1: Current Status and Challenges - Guangdong, as a leading economic province, has significant energy consumption and carbon emissions, with CO2 emissions reaching 560 million tons in 2022, accounting for about 5% of the national total [2] - The province's non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions were notable, with 13% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 coming from methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases [2] - Guangdong's electricity demand is the highest in the country, with a peak load of 165 million kilowatts since July 2025, and about one-third of its electricity comes from external sources, indicating a low green electricity self-sufficiency rate [2] Group 2: Advantages for Transition - Guangdong has a relatively low-carbon industrial structure and advanced industrial energy efficiency, maintaining the second-lowest energy consumption per GDP in the country [3] - The province has experienced steady economic growth since 2005, with a decoupling trend between economic growth and emissions, laying a foundation for low-carbon transition [3] Group 3: Energy Consumption and Emission Projections - The report predicts that under current policies, Guangdong's CO2 emissions could peak at approximately 670 million tons by 2030, necessitating an increase in non-fossil energy generation to about 40% [4] - In a dual carbon scenario, the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption is expected to rise from around 28% in 2020 to 36% by 2030, and further to over 74% by 2060 [4] - The electrification rate in various sectors is projected to increase significantly, with industrial electrification expected to rise from 39% in 2020 to 54% by 2030, and transportation electrification from 1% to 20% by 2060 [4] Group 4: Key Transition Strategies - The successful transition of the power sector is crucial for achieving Guangdong's dual carbon goals, with non-fossil power generation expected to surpass coal power around 2030 [5] - By 2060, renewable energy is projected to account for about 30% of total generation, with non-fossil sources making up 75%, while coal and gas plants will be equipped with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies [5] Group 5: Key Periods for Transition - The report identifies two critical periods for achieving the dual carbon goals, with specific tasks outlined for each period [6] - From now until 2030, Guangdong should focus on developing offshore wind and distributed solar power, enhancing green electricity self-sufficiency, and promoting energy efficiency in buildings and transportation [7] - From 2030 to 2060, the focus should shift to hydrogen energy substitution, controlling fluorinated gases, and implementing CCUS technologies, which could contribute 42% to emission reductions [7]

以政治引领把舵定向，筑牢绿色发展思想根基。石化企业要深入学习贯彻习近平生态文明思想，并将其 作为谋划推动"十五五"绿色转型的根本遵循之一；要完善党委决策嵌入机制，将"生态优先、绿色发 展"理念深度融入战略规划制订、重大项目论证、投资方向选择全过程，确保转型实践始终锚定正确航 向；要通过常态化思想对标与政策研读，引导党员干部深刻认识绿色转型的政治意义与时代价值，凝聚 思想同心、目标同向、行动同步的攻坚合力。 生态文明建设是关系中华民族永续发展的根本大计。石油和化工企业要将党的政治优势、组织优势转化 为可持续高质量发展的制胜优势，通过构建把舵领航、夯基垒台、聚力攻坚的"三位一体"工作格局，为 绿色转型、低碳发展提供坚强的政治保障。 以监督护航聚力攻坚，构建全域协同保障网络。石化企业要坚持将严实监督贯穿绿色转型全过程，为高 质量发展筑牢纪律屏障；要强化纪律监督刚性约束，把生态环保责任落实纳入政治监督重点，建立重大 项目环保合规性"穿透式"自查机制，对规划执行、技术路线、资金使用等关键环节开展动态扫描，确保 转型实践始终在政策法规框架内规范运行；要深化效能监督闭环管控，针对能效提升、减排进度等核心 指标定期调度，聚焦 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) opened in Beijing on September 10, showcasing a significant focus on financial services and environmental services [2] Financial Services Sector - The financial services exhibition spans 11,000 square meters, featuring 97 participating companies, including 71 from the Fortune Global 500 [2] - Domestic institutions account for 51 participants, while foreign institutions comprise 46, resulting in an internationalization rate of 47.4% [2] - The theme of the financial services exhibition is "Digital Intelligence Driven, Open and Win-Win," highlighting the growing interest in financial development opportunities [2] Environmental Services Sector - The environmental services exhibition is concurrently held at the Beijing Shougang Park, showcasing major players like China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [2] - These companies are prominently displaying their latest achievements in cutting-edge energy fields such as hydrogen energy and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) [2]

Core Insights - The report outlines the future industrial carbon neutrality technology evolution path, projecting that by 2060, China's industrial carbon emissions could drop to 450 million tons, a reduction of approximately 95% from 2025 levels [1] - Four common technologies—raw material substitution, waste recycling, electrification and clean power substitution, and hydrogen substitution—are expected to contribute nearly 80% to industrial carbon neutrality technology emissions reduction [1] Industrial Carbon Neutrality Technology Pathways - Climate change is a significant global challenge, with China's industrial sector accounting for nearly 70% of national emissions, necessitating research into industrial carbon neutrality technologies [2] - The report proposes a three-phase technology development path: - 2025-2035: Large-scale application of low-carbon process technologies, focusing on raw material substitution, waste recycling, and energy efficiency improvements [2] - 2035-2050: Explosive application of disruptive technologies such as hydrogen, electrification, and CCUS, aiming to restructure the industrial system [2] - 2050-2060: Deep application of carbon removal technologies, with CCUS expected to contribute 24% to emissions reduction [2] Sector-Specific Insights - In the steel industry, short-process electric furnace steel and energy efficiency technologies are mature, with hydrogen metallurgy and CCUS in demonstration stages; crude steel production is projected to drop to 700 million tons by 2060 [3] - The cement industry has large-scale applications of raw material and fuel substitution technologies, with CCUS expected to contribute over 50% of emissions reduction by 2050 [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector has mature waste aluminum recycling technologies, with total aluminum production stabilizing at 50 million tons by 2060 [3] - The petrochemical industry is in early application stages for green hydrogen substitution and electrification, with CCUS expected to contribute 23% to emissions reduction by 2060 [3] - The coal chemical industry is in demonstration stages for green hydrogen coupling and electric drive technologies, with CCUS expected to achieve a penetration rate of 50%-60% by 2060 [3] Challenges and Recommendations - Industrial carbon neutrality faces challenges such as low technology maturity, high costs, and insufficient industry chain collaboration [4] - The report recommends planning and deploying a comprehensive set of key industrial carbon neutrality technologies, which could cumulatively reduce carbon emissions by 14%-35% through early deployment [4] - It suggests enhancing the carbon market's incentive role, with expectations of driving 250-350 billion yuan in emission reduction investments by 2027 [4] - The report emphasizes the need for a supportive fiscal and tax policy framework, projecting a cumulative investment of 42 trillion yuan in industrial carbon neutrality from 2025 to 2060 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation) are expected to steadily increase their oil and gas production in response to national calls for "increasing reserves and production" amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Production - In Q1 2025, the oil and gas equivalent production of the "Three Oil Giants" is projected to grow, with China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing year-on-year increases of 0.7%, 1.7%, and 4.8% respectively [2]. - The upstream capital expenditure plans for 2025 are set at 210 billion, 76.7 billion, and 130 billion yuan for China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation respectively, with expected production growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% [2]. Group 2: Transition to Renewable Energy - The "Three Oil Giants" are actively advancing their green and low-carbon transformation, with China National Petroleum Corporation aiming for natural gas to account for over 50% of its total production by 2024 [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation has established over 10 million kilowatts of wind and solar power generation capacity and aims for a hydrogen production capacity of 8,100 tons per year, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [3]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is collaborating with CATL to build a nationwide battery swap network, targeting the construction of at least 500 battery swap stations this year and a total of 10,000 in the future [3]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation is advancing its CCUS projects, with the first offshore CCUS project in operation, expected to inject over 1 million tons of CO2 over the next decade [3]. Group 3: Oilfield Services Sector - The global upstream capital expenditure is expected to rebound in 2025, projected to exceed 582.4 billion dollars, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, which will benefit the oilfield services sector [4]. - The performance of oilfield service companies under the "Three Oil Giants" is improving, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation's subsidiaries reporting net profits of 0.887 billion, 0.541 billion, and 0.594 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 40%, 14%, and 18% respectively [4].

Core Insights - Brand Finance released the "2025 China Brand Value Top 500" report, highlighting the significant growth and positioning of Chinese brands in the global market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) remains the most valuable oil and gas brand in China, with a brand value increase of 17%, reaching $33.2 billion [1] - CNPC's ranking improved to 12th place, up two spots from 2024, with a brand strength rating of AA [1] - The company's strong operational performance and positive reputation, particularly in upstream operations, contribute to its sustained leadership [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - CNPC is actively responding to the global energy revolution by accelerating its transition into new energy sectors [1] - The company is leveraging its advantages in the natural gas sector to develop a comprehensive hydrogen energy value chain, including hydrogen production, storage, and refueling [1] - Significant achievements in wind and solar power generation, energy storage, geothermal energy, and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) have been made, enhancing energy efficiency and promoting green low-carbon development [1] Group 3: Brand Positioning - CNPC's initiatives demonstrate its keen insight into new technologies and rapid responsiveness, which help enhance its market positioning [1] - The company's efforts are aimed at establishing a leading position in the new energy sector [1]