伊以冲突持续升级,伊以美三国不断喊话,致使原油再次走高,美豆延续强势,大连豆粕走平收阴。国内豆油 连日强势上涨，或抑制豆粕上涨幅度。USDA数据显示，美国大豆优良率为66%，低于市场预期的68%，优良率咯 低。未来两周的美国天气，大部分美大豆产区降雨高于同期平均值,温度也高于同期平均值,持续有利于大豆 的种植生长。后续中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多，关注油脂端异动，6-8月继续关注天气恶化所带来的强 劲上涨驱动。 【豆油&棕榈油】 | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | なな☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | | | 菜粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | な女女 | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 玉米 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 生猪 | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | | な ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国大豆产区迎来降雨，天气改善令美豆期价反弹脚步放缓，但美豆仍处天气市波动之中， 易涨难跌走势维持。同时，美豆压榨需求获得生物燃料政策的支撑，美豆期价偏强运行对国内豆类联动支 撑仍在。随着粕类市场再获资金加持，整体走势得到巩固。近期豆类期价有望延续偏强走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美国农业部报告无亮点，市场关注焦点转向 6 月末种植面积报告。豆类市场交易逻辑围绕天气 题材和贸易前景展开，美豆期价呈现天气市波动特征，整体走势易涨难跌，国内豆粕期价受原料大豆进口 成本支撑，短期回落空间有限。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The regional differentiation in the corn market continues. The price in the Northeast production area remains firm due to cost support, and attention should be paid to the impact of future weather changes on prices. The North China production area is under short - term pressure due to wheat substitution, and it is necessary to observe whether the wheat minimum purchase price policy can alleviate the substitution of new wheat for corn. The risk of delayed summer corn sowing cannot be ignored. As the domestic corn production areas enter the weather - driven market stage, the short - term trend of corn futures prices is more likely to rise than fall [4][60]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the price trend depends on the release rhythm of policy grains, changes in import scale, and the evolution of new crop weather. Weather changes can affect market sentiment in the short term and yield prospects in the long term if they persist. The release rhythm of policy grains affects the market supply of grains. Attention should be paid to the inhibitory effect of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan on feed substitution and the potential impact of the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations on import pressure in the fourth quarter. With deep - processing losses and expanding import profits, the market is facing more intense long - short competition [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Corn Futures and Spot Prices Rise in Tandem - The continuous decline in wheat prices due to the completion of more than half of the new wheat harvest in North China has restricted the rise of corn spot prices. However, the launch of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan has relieved the pressure on the domestic corn market, especially in North China [8]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, both the domestic corn futures main contract 2509 and the CBOT corn futures prices rebounded. Due to the fact that the remaining corn in domestic production areas is mainly held by traders with a mindset of hoarding and price - supporting, the domestic corn market price has shown small fluctuations recently. In early June 2025, the purchase price of corn in Heilongjiang and Jilin's deep - processing enterprises was in the range of 2120 - 2230 yuan/ton, with a partial rebound of 15 - 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Shandong, it was in the range of 2380 - 2500 yuan/ton, with a main fluctuation of 10 - 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [8]. 3.2 Wheat Minimum Purchase Price Policy Boosts Market Sentiment, and Drought Emerges in Some Production Areas 3.2.1 Henan Launches Wheat Minimum Purchase Price Policy, and the Quantity of Imported Grains Has Changed - As of June 8, wheat harvest in Hubei and Anhui has ended, and it is nearing completion in Henan. The harvest progress in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Shaanxi is slower than the same period in previous years. The summer sowing of corn in North China is expected to be slightly delayed this year. The launch of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan on June 7 has supported wheat prices and restricted the substitution of new domestic wheat for feed corn [11]. - In terms of imported grains, the price of CBOT corn futures has rebounded, and the theoretical import profit of Brazilian corn for the third - quarter shipment has reached 450 yuan/ton. The first shipment of Brazilian corn to China in the second half of the year is waiting to be loaded, with an expected loading in mid - to - late June and an arrival in China around August. The import of Russian corn is expected to remain at a peak of 30,000 tons per month. The scale of Ukrainian corn imports has declined, with only 50,000 tons imported in the first four months of this year compared to nearly 200,000 tons in the same period last year. The scale of US corn imports has dropped below 10,000 tons since October 2024. Argentina and Australia are becoming the main sources of China's imported grains. In recent months, sorghum from Argentina and Australia has had the greatest impact on corn consumption, but the absolute quantity of imported grains arriving in China from June to August is expected to be significantly different from before [12]. 3.2.2 North Port Inventory Declines, and Price Inversion Continues - As of the week ending May 30, the theoretical cost of bulk - shipped corn arriving at southern ports is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton, while the southern port price is 2410 - 2430 yuan/ton, resulting in an immediate theoretical loss of 30 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of new - season bulk - shipped corn at northern ports and at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises is low [21]. - As of May 30, the corn inventory at Guangdong Port has decreased to 1.15 million tons, with imported corn inventory at 3,000 tons and imported substitute grains (mainly sorghum and barley) inventory at around 700,000 tons. The corn inventory at northern ports (eight ports) has slightly decreased to around 4.5 million tons [21]. 3.2.3 Corn Growth in Production Areas Is Slower Than the Same Period Last Year, and Drought Emerges in Some Areas - In June, high - temperature and drought conditions in parts of North China may continue to affect summer corn sowing, but due to good irrigation facilities, it may not have a significant impact on local yields. As of June 7, most spring - sown corn in the north is in the three - leaf to seven - leaf stage. Corn growth in Heilongjiang is relatively fast, with nearly 80% of the corn in the seven - leaf stage. Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of corn in the seven - leaf stage in Heilongjiang and Jilin is higher, while in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, it is lower. Due to low - temperature and less - rainfall conditions during the sowing period this year, the overall corn growth in the Northeast is slower than last year [27]. - In early June, the light, heat, and water conditions in most parts of the Northeast are favorable for crop emergence, but there is a lack of soil moisture in parts of Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, and heavy rainfall in some areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin may affect corn growth. In the next ten days (June 9 - 18), the weather in most agricultural areas in the Northeast is favorable, but heavy rainfall and strong convective weather may cause flooding or lodging of seedlings [27]. 3.2.4 Pig Feed Corn Consumption Is Difficult to Increase Significantly, and Deep - Processing By - products Are Affected by Trade Policies - In the 23rd week of 2025, the average slaughter price of live pigs in China was 14.27 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83%. The breeding profit is in the range of - 150 to 100 yuan per head, with an average loss of 45 yuan per head. The pig - to - grain ratio is 5.98:1, within the green regulation range. Most breeding models are in a loss state, and relevant measures to control sow expansion, pig slaughter weight, and secondary fattening are not conducive to the growth of pig feed corn consumption. The impact of new wheat on corn consumption is the main obstacle, but the implementation of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan may limit the expansion of wheat feed substitution [34]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the corn purchase prices at deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Shandong have shown different trends. The deep - processing operating rate is at a low level. The corn starch market price is generally firm with slight local declines, and the corn alcohol price is fluctuating. The theoretical losses of corn alcohol and starch production in some enterprises have increased or decreased. The average operating rate of the corn starch and alcohol industries is about 51.5%, with the alcohol industry rebounding and the starch industry declining [35]. - The low operating rate of corn alcohol enterprises has led to a tight supply of DDGS, but due to the unfavorable protein price ratio with soybean meal, the DDGS price has shown small fluctuations. The average domestic DDGS price on June 10, 2025, is 2309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The supply shortage of domestic DDGS may support prices, but the opening of the Brazilian DDGS import market may have a negative impact on the long - term market [36][37]. 3.2.5 Sino - US Trade Relations Show Improvement, but Importing US Corn Still Has No Advantage - On June 5, US President Trump announced after a call with China's top leader that Sino - US trade officials would hold a new round of face - to - face talks. On June 9, Sino - US economic and trade teams held the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London. The optimistic sentiment in Sino - US trade has pushed up US agricultural product futures prices [56]. - After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, China still imposes a 25% comprehensive tariff on US corn. The landed duty - paid price of US corn is 2340 - 2420 yuan/ton, which is lower than the domestic price in Guangdong Port but significantly higher than the price of Brazilian and Argentine corn, so it has no price advantage compared with South American corn [58].

豆粕周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 5 月 12 日 静待 USDA 报告发布 连粕或弱势震荡 核心观点及策略 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆7月合约较节前涨8.25收于1052.25美分/ 蒲式耳，涨幅0.79%；豆粕09合约跌21收于2899元/吨，跌 幅0.72%；华南豆粕现货跌480收于3140元/吨，跌幅 13.26%；菜粕09合约涨15收于2551元/吨，涨幅0.59%；广 西菜粕 ...

期货热点追踪 十年最低库存预警！全球小麦价格离"天气市"暴涨只差一场干旱？ 相关链接 ...