Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,250 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 in the short - term. Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, raw material latex supply is slow due to weather, and raw material purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, typhoon weather is coming, raw material output has decreased, and processing plants are still competing to buy latex. Last week, bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased inventory, while general trade warehouses continued to reduce inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at ports decreased, leading to a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. Tire companies' purchasing sentiment improved, driving the total outbound volume in Qingdao to be greater than the inbound volume. However, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies decreased last week, and the overall order performance of tire companies is average, with a slow pace of finished product inventory reduction. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 11,930 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 860 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread of 20 - number rubber was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 172,383 lots, an increase of 6,267 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 30,828 lots, a decrease of 2,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,121 lots, a decrease of 6,259 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 4,696 lots, a decrease of 1,889 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 193,270 tons, a decrease of 70 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 34,372 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 265 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,244 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, up 316 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 69.05 Thai baht/kg, up 1.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 63.66 Thai baht/kg, up 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 46.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, down 118.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, up 4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, down 1.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.17%, down 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.72%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.22%, down 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.24%, down 0.35 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From June 8th - 14th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and south - western Cambodia, which had a greater impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, also having a greater impact on tapping. As of June 8th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April 2025, and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the Yunnan production area, raw material purchase prices have been significantly adjusted downward due to the drag of the spot market. In the Hainan production area, precipitation has continued to disrupt the new rubber supply, which has been slow. The raw material circulation in the market is tight, and local concentrated latex processing plants have order fulfillment needs, so they are in a state of competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices. Last week, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port reduced their inventories, while the general trade warehouses increased their inventories, resulting in a slight overall inventory increase. Overseas supply arrivals continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in bonded warehouse receipts. After the decline in rubber prices, most tire companies made sporadic purchases based on their rigid demand, but the overall volume was relatively limited. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies continued to increase last week, with most companies' production schedules gradually stabilizing, but some companies slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,400 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was -830 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,580 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 335 yuan/ton; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 110 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 10,624 lots to 181,089 lots, and the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 4,417 lots to 52,829 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -24,360 lots, with an increase of 539 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was -492 lots, with an increase of 3,611 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 230 tons to 198,850 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 3,528 tons to 16,733 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai - standard STR20 was 1,730 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian - standard SMR20 was 1,730 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 670 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,720 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 680 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -30 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 275 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,366 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 428 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was -214 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 763 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price for smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 68.55 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price for rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 1.18 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price for rubber latex of Thai raw rubber was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, with no daily change; the market reference price for cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 51.6 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 66 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -112 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 59 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 42.86 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47 days, an increase of 1.22 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.59%, with a daily increase of 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.5%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.05%, with a daily decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.51%, with a daily increase of 0.23 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 25 - May 31, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber production areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in Laos and Vietnam was above the medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In most areas south of the equator, the rainfall was below the medium level, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping. As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons, or 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 90,500 tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 524,100 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-05-28 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The RU2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,400 in the short term, and the NR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,700 in the short term [2][3] - Last week, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port reduced inventory, while the general trade warehouses increased inventory, resulting in a slight overall inventory increase. Overseas arrivals continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in bonded warehouse inbound volume. After the decline in rubber prices, most tire enterprises made sporadic purchases based on rigid demand, but the overall volume was relatively limited [2] - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to increase last week. Most enterprises' production schedules gradually stabilized, but some enterprises slightly reduced production to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization rate. A few enterprises plan to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 690 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 775 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - rubber was 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was 1,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 191,713 lots, an increase of 22,484 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract was 57,246 lots, a decrease of 7,031 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,899 lots, an increase of 2,266 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 4,103 lots, a decrease of 1,175 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 199,080 tons, a decrease of 130 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 20,261 tons, a decrease of 10,483 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 245 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 549 yuan/ton, an increase of 714 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 68.9 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.61 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.18 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 52.1 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.7 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 112 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 42.86 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 47 days, an increase of 1.22 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.43%, an increase of 6.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.11%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.27%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.28%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 25 - May 31, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in Laos and Vietnam was above the medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, most areas had below - medium rainfall, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous period, with a growth rate of 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 90,500 tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 524,100 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points [2] - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [2]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | -10 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14810 | 12730 | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 25 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | -790 | 90 | 0 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | -25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 2080 | 154350 | -3022 | | | | 期货市场 | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 4 沪胶前20名净持仓 | 59318 | -32710 | -26 | | | | | | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | 365 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | -5161 | 199540 | -30 | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 47678 | -11996 | | | | | | 上海市场国 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 部分企业因出货压力增加，企业成品库存延续增势，订单不足，整体排产低于节前平均水平。ru2509合约 短线预计在14400-15000区间波动，nr2507合约短线预计在12350-12900区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 14820 -815 | -120 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 5 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting tapping. In the Yunnan region, there is still competition for raw materials, and prices remain high. In the Hainan region, weather conditions have slightly improved, with a month - on - month increase in raw material output, but it is still lower than the same period in previous years. The market raw material circulation is relatively tight, and some processing plants are still competing to purchase glue at higher prices. Overseas arrivals have decreased, resulting in a month - on - month decline in bonded warehouse receipts, but due to weak buying and insufficient outbound power, bonded warehouses are still in a state of inventory accumulation. General trade inventory is accelerating inventory reduction. Tire enterprise capacity utilization is gradually recovering, driving an increase in提货量 from Qingdao warehouses, and the total inventory in Qingdao showed a decline last week. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week. Most semi - steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels, but overall sales are slow, and inventory continues to grow. The all - steel tire capacity utilization is in a state of restorative improvement, with some enterprises facing increased sales pressure, continued growth in finished product inventory, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling lower than the pre - holiday average. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,450 - 15,100 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 12,900 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 65 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was 10 yuan/ton, and the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 820 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was - 95 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract increased by 1,031 hands to 149,254 hands, and the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,730 hands. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 3,153 hands to 29,191 hands, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was 846 hands. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange decreased by 410 tons to 199,570 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange decreased by 4,637 tons to 62,596 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton with no change. The price of Thai standard STR20 increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,800 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,800 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,570 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 12,900 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,700 yuan/ton with no change [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets decreased by 0.5 Thai baht/kg, the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 71.59 Thai baht/kg with an increase of 1 Thai baht/kg, the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue increased by 1.25 Thai baht/kg, and the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump increased by 0.1 Thai baht/kg to 62.5 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 66 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 decreased by 53 US dollars/ton to 208 US dollars/ton [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 66,900 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber increased by 19,300 tons to 216,100 tons. The weekly all - steel tire开工率 was 65.09%, a decrease of 19.98 percentage points, and the weekly semi - steel tire开工率 was 78.33%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 42.77 days, an increase of 0.69 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 45.78 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 3.09 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires increased by 1.156 million pieces to 5.966 million pieces [2] 5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 0.11%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying decreased to 17.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options decreased by 0.89%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.89% to 21.92% [2] 6. Industry News - From May 18th to May 24th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. Precipitation in northern Thailand and the Philippines north of the equator increased significantly, and most other areas were in a moderate state, still affecting tapping work. South of the equator, the red - marked areas decreased, and most other areas had moderate rainfall, with an expected weakening impact on tapping work. As of May 18th, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points. As of May 15th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [2]

0-13100区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15090 | -145 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 12890 | 环比 -145 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -820 | 30 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 50 | 10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2200 | 0 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 145674 | -4280 | | ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-04-28 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 分规模较小企业基本维持产销平衡状态，产量偏大企业受出货放缓影响，库存延续增势。ru2509合约短线 建议在14000-14950区间交易，nr2506合约短线建议在12000-12600区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14730 | 10 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-04-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 14640 110 | 5 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 70 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 12415 70 | 65 -20 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2225 | -60 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 146631 | 6259 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 64010 | -1301 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -26426 | -730 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | 1644 | 317 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200770 | -100 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 77112 14550 | -404 -150 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16200 | 0 | | | 泰标STR2 ...

修安排对整体产能利用率形成拖拽，短期轮胎企业产能利用率存稳中走弱预期。关税政策引发市场对贸易 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-04-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15080 | 85 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12765 | 5 | | | 沪胶5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -150 | 15 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 80 | -40 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2315 | 80 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 131052 | 4755 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61542 | -380 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -23653 | -1113 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | 1006 | 1003 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200910 | 8 ...