Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic rubber-producing areas are in the off-season, the output in northern Thailand is decreasing, and the output in southern Thailand will enter the low-yield period. The upstream supply has entered the seasonal production reduction period, and the raw material prices are firm [2]. - During the Spring Festival holiday in China, the overall trading was sluggish. Recently, the general trade inventory in Qingdao has continued to accumulate, with a relatively large accumulation range. Next week, as downstream enterprises gradually resume work and production, the accumulation range may narrow, but the terminal replacement demand is still restricted by the resumption rhythm of logistics and infrastructure and the consumer wait-and-see sentiment [2]. - The terminal substantial demand will gradually be released after March. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in domestic inventory and the post - holiday resumption of work and procurement sentiment of downstream tire factories. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,300 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 17,240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 210 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,980 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 is 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the spread between 20 - number rubber 4 - 5 is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,260 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 175,091 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 13,023 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 45,890 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,632 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,223 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,359 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 642 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 112,570 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,601 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 550 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 17,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,055 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,050 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 530 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 530 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,180 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,671 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 116 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is - 124 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 731 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 68.79 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 3.32 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 64.05 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 67 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 4.7 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 8 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 14.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 28.2 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 14.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 45.2 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 47.86 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.43 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 25.5%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.89%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.58%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.55%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.46 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), basically flat compared with December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [2]. - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons, an increase of 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons, an increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons, an increase of 9.67% [2]. - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [2]. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic rubber-producing areas are in the off - season, the output in northern Thailand is decreasing, and the output in southern Thailand is also entering the low - production period. The upstream supply is in the seasonal production - reduction period, and the raw material prices are firm [2]. - During the Chinese Spring Festival, the overall trading was sluggish. Recently, the general trade inventory in Qingdao has continued to accumulate with a large increase. Next week, as downstream enterprises gradually resume work and production, the inventory accumulation rate may narrow, but the terminal replacement demand is still restricted by the resumption rhythm of logistics and infrastructure and consumer wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The real terminal demand will gradually be released after March. Attention should be paid to the domestic inventory changes and the post - holiday resumption of work and procurement sentiment of downstream tire factories. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract was 17,030 yuan/ton, a increase of 715 yuan; the closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract was 13,795 yuan/ton, a increase of 615 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 200 yuan/ton, a increase of 80 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,235 yuan/ton, a increase of 100 yuan. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract was 162,068 lots, a increase of 21,833 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract was 47,522 lots, a decrease of 263 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 37,237 lots, a decrease of 3,430 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,717 lots, a increase of 282 lots [2]. - The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 50,601 tons, a decrease of 202 tons [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,800 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a increase of 550 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,975 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene BR9000 was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract was - 1,710 yuan/ton, a increase of 25 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract was - 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 731 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.47 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.89 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.54 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 62.3 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, a increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 19.93 million tons, a increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 39.63 million tons, a increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 42.4%, a decrease of 18.3 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 59.44%, a decrease of 13.32 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.88 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.41 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, a increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.74%, a increase of 4.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 20.96%, a increase of 2.57 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 26.1%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 26.09%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points [2]. 3.6. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [2]. - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 66.77 million tons, a increase of 6.1 million tons or 10.05% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 11.08 million tons, a increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 55.69 million tons, a increase of 9.67% [2]. - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a decrease of 15.69 percentage points month - on - month and 8.88 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a decrease of 19.90 percentage points month - on - month and 13.74 percentage points year - on - year [2]. 3.7. Weather Information - In the first week of the future (February 23 - March 1, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. There was no red area north of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had an increased impact on rubber - tapping work; the red areas south of the equator were mainly concentrated in Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas was medium - to - low, which also had an increased impact on rubber - tapping work [2]. 3.8. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday, domestic inventory changes, and the post - holiday resumption of work and procurement sentiment of downstream tire factories [2].

，装置排产逐步进入收尾状态，将拖拽整体产能利用率下行，短期轮胎企业产能利用率或将有所下滑。ru2 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 605合约短线预计在15700-16700区间波动,nr2604合约短线预计在12750-13300区间波动，短期大宗商品价 免责声明 格受宏观情绪影响较大，建议观望为主。 天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15980 130 | -380 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 12925 -45 | -310 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 0 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3055 | -70 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 155994 | -16624 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 276 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the non - tapping period, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation rate showing little change compared to the previous period. African rubber is the main type of overseas shipments arriving at the port. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The general trade inventory accumulation rate has narrowed. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month. The short - term operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall device scheduling is expected to remain stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,745 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,112 lots, up 2,136 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 62,058 lots, down 1,666 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 47,357 lots, down 1,794 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,803 lots, up 357 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 55,742 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,161 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 546 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.59 Thai baht/kg, down 0.66 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.12%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.04%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.68%, down 0.4 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.67%, down 0.41 percentage points [2] Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short - term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short - term. The overall inventory in Qingdao port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, though the overall accumulation rate has narrowed. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease, but due to the unexpected increase in rubber prices, downstream buyers are mainly observing and replenishing, with weak purchasing sentiment and continued inventory accumulation. In terms of demand, last week, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly, with the semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate rising slightly month - on - month and the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate falling month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, finished product inventory is rising, and under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have production suspension or limitation phenomena [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of No. 20 rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber is 2,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 175,574 lots, down 3,817 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 35,012 lots, down 3,230 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 46,555 lots, up 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber is - 13,179 lots, up 891 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 97,290 tons, up 700 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber in the exchange are 57,556 tons, down 505 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,870 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 370 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 965 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,152 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 462 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.49 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, down 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.95%, down 1.18 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.05%, up 0.61 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 43.78 days, up 1.87 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 46.86 days, up 0.38 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.11%, down 0.48 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.83%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the overall accumulation rate narrowing month - on - month. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, and rubber prices fluctuate downward. Tire companies make purchases according to demand, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven up the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises this week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may carry out overhauls or reduce production in the later stage. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,185 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,546 lots, down 1,503 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 58,112 lots, down 1,198 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,509 lots, down 2,179 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,670 lots, up 1,129 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 53,430 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 60,380 tons, up 101 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 715 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,810 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 540 yuan/ton, down 224 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 58.14 Thai baht/kg, down 0.37 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, down 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, up 70.2 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5%, up 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, down 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.95 days, down 0.28 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.38%, down 0.69 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.87%, up 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.63%, down 0.61 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.64%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general - trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate significantly, with inventory piling up in both bonded and general trade warehouses. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories arrange production flexibly and stock up cautiously, leading to a large - scale inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - Domestic tire companies' capacity utilization has increased week - on - week, but the shipment pace of each tire company is slow. Short - term production control behavior still exists, and the increase in overall capacity utilization is expected to be limited. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11800 - 12200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15040 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 11970 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. - The trading volume and open interest of related contracts changed, with the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai rubber increasing by 65920 hands to 123975 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreasing by 2375 hands to 36885 hands. - The Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber spreads and their changes were also reported, along with the net positions of the top 20 in both contracts and the exchange warehouse receipts [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of natural rubber in the Shanghai market and synthetic rubber in the spot market changed. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 14850 yuan/ton, while the price of Shanghai market Vietnam 3L decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton. - The base spreads of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber and their changes were also presented [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of different forms of Thai raw rubber (such as smoke sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue) and their changes were given. - The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 and their changes were reported. - The monthly import volumes of technical - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber and their changes were provided [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires, inventory days, and production volumes and their changes were reported. For example, the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the monthly production volume of all - steel tires was 12420000 pieces, down 720000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options and their changes were reported [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1000000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (including bonded and general trade) was 481600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%. - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remain at a high level, but downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mood with low stocking willingness. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will gradually recover next week, but the increase will be limited due to some enterprises' maintenance plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,900 - 15,600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,205 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The positions of both contracts decreased, with the main Shanghai rubber contract's position down 9,867 hands and the main 20 - number rubber contract's position down 2,617 hands [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Shanghai market Vietnam 3L is 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the price of rubber sheet is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, down 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.29%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.3%, down 0.25 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.60%. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual resumption of operations of maintenance enterprises, the production capacity of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,040 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 151,771 lots, up 7,754 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 29,855 lots, down 416 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,163 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,961 lots, up 397 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 142,940 tons, down 1,450 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 41,429 tons, up 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,144 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 1,104 yuan/ton, up 229 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 59.11 Thai baht/kg, up 0.64 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1.01 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.8 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.91%, down 0.7 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.99%, up 1.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.69%, up 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.68%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in northern and central Vietnam, and rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in eastern Malaysia, and rainfall in most other areas was medium - to - low, with an increased impact on tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1.05 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 8.21 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 13.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2] Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather is normal and raw material supply is okay, but the purchase price has decreased slightly due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has restricted tapping operations, and the seasonal increase in raw materials has slowed down. Affected by the decline in domestic and foreign futures and spot markets, local processing plants are cautious about increasing the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased slightly compared with before the holiday. The bonded warehouse has seen inventory accumulation, while the general trade warehouse has seen inventory reduction. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and there has been no large - scale replenishment [2]