每经AI快讯，12月11日，菲律宾央行降息25个基点至4.50%，符合市场预期。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月11日，在美联储宣布降息25个基点后，阿联酋央行宣布将其基准利率降低25个基点 到3.65%。 ...

德国国债延续跌势，收益率曲线中段领跌，因在欧洲央行官员Isabel Schnabel发表鹰派言论后，货币市 场继续削减对央行进一步宽松的押注。 德国10年期国债收益率上涨4个基点至2.84%；5年期国债收益率攀升4个基点至2.44%。 交易员预计明年欧洲央行再次降息的概率不足10%，目前定价显示6月底前降息幅度为2个基点，较上周 五的4个基点和一个月前的10个基点均有所下调；掉期市场暗示2026年底存款利率将上升4个基点。 德国10年期国债收益率上涨4个基点至2.84%；5年期国债收益率攀升4个基点至2.44%。 Schnabel表示，相当乐见投资者押注下一步行动是加息。 责任编辑：刘明亮 Schnabel表示，相当乐见投资者押注下一步行动是加息。 责任编辑：刘明亮 德国国债延续跌势，收益率曲线中段领跌，因在欧洲央行官员Isabel Schnabel发表鹰派言论后，货币市 场继续削减对央行进一步宽松的押注。 交易员预计明年欧洲央行再次降息的概率不足10%，目前定价显示6月底前降息幅度为2个基点，较上周 五的4个基点和一个月前的10个基点均有所下调；掉期市场暗示2026年底存款利率将上升4个基点。 ...

野村首席东盟经济学家Euben Paracuelles表示，菲律宾央行似乎将是该地区降息幅度最大的央行。他 说，国内的腐败丑闻可能会再持续几个季度。据称，专门用于防洪基础设施的公共资金流向了不合标准 或根本不存在的项目。Paracuelles说："从增长前景来看，这真的会非常负面。"作为一家央行，菲律宾 央行将不得不通过降息来设法支持国内需求。野村预计，在本轮周期中还将有75个基点的降息，到2026 年4月，政策利率将降至4.00%。 ...

Core Insights - The overall budget data for the UK is currently positive, indicating an increase in fiscal space [1] - The budget deficit is expected to tighten over the next two years, which could support interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - The UK budget situation is described as good, with improved fiscal conditions [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the early release of the report by the Office for Budget Responsibility was a mistake [1] Fiscal Policy - The tightening of the budget deficit in the upcoming two years is highlighted as a significant factor [1] - This tightening is seen as a potential enabler for the Bank of England to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are increasing their bets on the Bank of England's interest rate cuts, expecting a cumulative reduction of 68 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1 - The market anticipates significant monetary easing from the Bank of England in the coming years [1] - The expected timeline for these rate cuts extends to the end of 2026, indicating a long-term outlook on interest rates [1]

Core Insights - The UK government's budget proposal is viewed as the last obstacle before the Bank of England can consider interest rate cuts [1] - The budget has a dual impact on inflation; increased taxation may suppress demand and contribute to deflation, while rising business costs could lead to higher prices, creating a "second wave" of inflation [1] - Conditions for a potential interest rate cut in December are gradually forming, but the Bank of England will first assess the impact of the budget proposal before approving further monetary easing [1]

高盛同时预测，印尼央行或将于2025年12月启动降息，幅度为25个基点，并可能在2026年第一季度再次 下调25个基点。但该机构未披露上述预测所依据的具体经济数据或模型参数，相关细节暂未披露。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月17日电据《华尔街日报》最新调查，市场普遍预期印度尼西亚央行将在本周三的货币 政策会议上维持七天逆回购利率不变。在接受调查的八位经济学家中，七位预计该利率将保持在 4.75%；仅有一位预测央行可能下调25个基点至4.50%。 高盛认为，印尼央行本次会议将选择按兵不动。报告指出，决策层需进一步评估经济增长态势、通胀走 势、此前利率调整的政策效果以及外汇市场的稳定性，方能决定后续行动方向。 ...

Core Points - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 5% for the three months ending in September, the highest level since early 2021, surpassing economists' expectations of 4.9% [1] - The number of employees decreased by 32,000 in October, with September's data also revised down by the same amount [1] - The redundancy rate increased to 4.5 per 1,000 employees, marking the highest level since January 2024 and the second highest since the pandemic began [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed from 4.4% to 4.2%, the lowest since early 2021, aligning with economists' median expectations [5] - Following the data release, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England, with market pricing indicating an over 80% probability of action in December [5] - The report indicates a weakening labor market, with the Bank of England's Governor suggesting that if upcoming data confirms easing inflationary pressures, he may support a rate cut in December [5][6] Employment Market Insights - The employment report is the first in a series of data that will influence the Bank of England's decision on interest rates in December [6] - The upcoming GDP data and the budget announcement on November 26 are critical for the interest rate decision, with expectations of tax increases potentially impacting economic growth [6] - The rise in unemployment is attributed to the increase in national insurance contributions by £26 billion, which has drawn criticism from opposition parties and business groups [5][6] - The number of job vacancies increased by 2,000 compared to the previous quarter, but remains below pre-pandemic levels [11] - The unemployment-to-vacancy ratio reached its highest level since 2015, indicating a significant level of labor market slack [11] Wage Growth Dynamics - Real wage growth adjusted for inflation was only 0.8%, the weakest since August 2023, despite some sectors experiencing strong wage increases [11][14] - Public sector wages rose by 6.6%, the fastest growth since the end of 2023, influenced by earlier-than-expected pay increases [11] - Wages in wholesale, retail, and hospitality sectors also saw a robust increase of 5.7%, reflecting the impact of government tax increases on employment and minimum wage [14] - Nearly half of businesses reported reducing hiring due to the government's employment tax increase, while only 17% opted to lower wages [14]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - Barclays suggests that traders are underestimating the likelihood of an unexpected interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week, predicting a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% [1] - According to Capital Economics, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline further in the coming months, potentially leading to another rate cut by the European Central Bank [2] - DBS Bank analysts indicate that the Bank of Japan may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points in December, depending on wage negotiations and the Federal Reserve's actions [3] - UOB economists believe that the Bank of Thailand may need to cut rates more than expected to combat deflation risks, with predictions of 25 basis point cuts in December and Q1 of next year [5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Eurozone inflation decreased from 2.2% in September to 2.1% in October, attributed to falling energy and food prices, while core inflation remained at 2.4% [2] - The European Central Bank's survey indicates that inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target in the coming years, with economic growth projected to gradually recover [2] - Thailand's consumer prices have fallen for six consecutive months, raising concerns about deflation driven by weak bank credit and high private sector leverage [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Sentiment - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will fall to 160 against the US dollar by year-end, driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan [4] - A report from Bank of America highlights a record outflow of $7.5 billion from gold funds in a single week, following a previous week of significant inflows [6]