Warsh 联储如何影响商品市场 20260205 摘要 凯文·沃什的货币政策立场偏鹰派，关注通胀风险，反对过度量化宽松， 支持"小央行"理念，但近期言论显示其对 AI 技术压低通胀及中性利率 的看法有所转变，立场趋于中性。 特朗普选择沃什可能出于家族关系、维护美联储独立性信心、潜在的 "背锅"需求以及外貌优势等因素考虑，而非完全基于货币政策立场。 沃什上任后，美联储资产负债表政策预计不会有重大调整，短期内可能 放缓技术性扩表（RMP）购买量，长期或在经济衰退时更晚、更少扩表， 更早、更快缩表，但主动出售长端美债和 MBS 的可能性较低。 未来五年，沃什面临重新启动缩表、修改监管条款等挑战，需与各方协 同，难度极大。他可能逐步减少 RMP 购买量，但需避免引发回购市场流 动性危机。在利率政策方面，大幅转鹰或转鸽的可能性较低，调整空间 有限。 在经济基本面不变的情况下，沃什大幅降息的可能性较低，需说服其他 FOMC 票委。除非失业率显著高于预期或特朗普下调关税，否则今年可 能不会多次降息。 Q&A 凯文沃什被任命为美联储主席后，对全球大类资产市场产生了哪些影响？ 凯文沃什被任命为美联储主席后，全球大类资产市场出 ...

February 9, 2026 05:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing M Global Idea The Weekly Worldview: A smaller Fed footprint: How much does it matter? M We look into the mechanics and implications of how the Fed's balance sheet could be smaller. The prospect of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy has generated a lot of client questions as the market digests the news of the announced nominee for a new Fed Chair. We do suspect that there could be a bigger difference for the balance sheet than for the policy rate ...

北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任下一届美联储主席，恰逢贵金属市场"巨 震"，引发市场热议两者的关联性（或因果性）。其中，沃什主张的"降息+缩表"政策组合备受关注。这 一"矛盾"的政策组合，背后的逻辑是什么、主要矛盾是什么、对市场有何含义？ 一、从缩表到扩表：美联储资产负债表"正常化"的历程 2008年全球金融危机（GFC）以来，美联储资产负债表扩张"一发不可收拾"。 2008-2026年，美联储共实施 了四轮扩表（QE）和两轮缩表（量化紧缩，QT），期间还包括一轮再投资和两轮准备金管理购买 （RMP）。截止到2025年11月QT2结束，美联储总资产仍高达6.6万亿美元，是2008年初的7倍有余，是2019 年9月QT1结束时的1.7倍。 2025年12月FOMC例会，美联储重启RMP，标志着"常态化扩表"阶段的开始。 数量方面，初期为400亿每 月，5月之后或减速至200-250亿。中期而言，RMP扩表的速度或与名义GDP增速匹配。期限方面，SOMA将 主要增持1年以内的国库券，其中，1-4个月占比75%，4-12个月占比25%，原则上只有在国库券供给不足时才 会增持 ...

摘要 日本财政扩张政策引发对其财政纪律的担忧，新发 40 年期日债利率一 度飙升至历史高位，加剧了市场对日债可持续性的疑虑。 全球国债供需失衡加剧，主要国家财政赤字扩大，如美国的美利法案和 日本的消费税削减计划，导致国债供给增加，而地缘风险和日本央行政 策调整则削弱了需求。 为应对经济压力，美日或采取实质性利率曲线控制（YCC）措施。美国 可能扩大购债规模，甚至通过行政手段干预利率，日本则可能重启 YCC 以应对日债利率上行。 全球流动性环境有望趋于宽松，受益于美国可能实施的 YCC 政策，美元 流动性边际改善，人民币汇率有望升值，从而利好中国股市。 中国股市估值相对较低，在全球宽松政策背景下，有望吸引更多国际资 本配置，同时中美欧三大经济体共振宽松将提升中国股市盈利和估值水 平。 高杠杆基差套利交易是潜在风险点，美日国债供需失衡可能导致此类交 易因市场波动加剧而爆仓，引发跨资产抛售和系统性风险。 短期市场风险可能倒逼各国实施更宽松的货币政策，如重启 YCC 或 QE，长期来看，这些措施将支撑全球资产价格上涨，缓解短期冲击。 Q&A 美欧日国债风暴 YCC 箭在弦上 20260121 一比例过去十年下降了十几 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Shift - The global macro narrative is shifting from valuation recovery to profit realization, with equity assets driven by expanding profit margins in US stocks, storage cycles in South Korea, and significant debt-equity valuation advantages in A-shares [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing strong upward momentum due to a fundamental shift in pricing logic, moving from real estate and infrastructure to computing power and electricity, with AI driving demand for conductive and heat-dissipating materials [2] - The demand elasticity for commodities has systematically increased, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook despite potential short-term corrections [2] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The Chinese bond market is experiencing a stabilization phase, with long-end yields under pressure due to historical low spreads and the release of issuance pressure [3] - In the US bond market, strong service sector data has delayed interest rate cut expectations, while fiscal risks are becoming a focal point [3] Group 4: A-share Market Dynamics - Regulatory measures aimed at reducing leverage signal a transition from a "crazy bull" to a "slow bull" market, with A-shares showing significant attractiveness due to high dividend yields relative to bonds [4] - The market is expected to see a substantial rebound in net profit growth by 10% year-on-year by 2026, driven by a shift from valuation recovery to a dual engine of performance and valuation [4] Group 5: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock market is projected to see a 20% earnings growth in Q4 2025, driven by the realization of AI efficiency gains, with major companies optimizing cost structures [5] - The market's resilience will increasingly depend on sustained profit margin expansion rather than simple valuation multiples [5] Group 6: Japanese and Korean Stock Markets - The Japanese stock market is benefiting from governance reforms and a positive inflation cycle, with profit margin expectations reaching a historical high of 9.4% [6] - The Korean stock market is entering a super cycle for storage chips, with profit expectations rising nearly 30% since the second half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase in foreign investment in the semiconductor sector [6]

Macro Economic Group - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, focusing on the $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed's headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about project details. Powell responded strongly, claiming the investigation is a pretext to undermine the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [2][3] - The investigation was approved in November 2022 and is seen as a move to establish rules for current and future Fed officials, potentially impacting the Fed's independence [2] - The upcoming midterm elections on November 3, 2022, and Trump's concerns about impeachment following potential election losses indicate a need for favorable economic conditions to boost his approval ratings. This pressure on Powell may lead to further interest rate cuts or his resignation [3] Industry Comprehensive Group - The Ministry of Commerce announced progress in negotiations regarding the export of electric vehicles to the EU, which could significantly benefit China's new energy vehicle exports. The reduction of export tax rebates for battery products in 2026 and their complete cancellation in 2027 is expected to stimulate battery export orders [7] - NVIDIA plans to invest $1 billion with Eli Lilly over the next five years to establish an AI drug laboratory, aiming to accelerate drug discovery through robotics and AI. This collaboration is likely to enhance market expectations for AI applications, particularly in the AI chip sector [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Research indicates that the price difference in renewable energy is widening, with wind power at about 80% of long-term contract prices and solar power at 60-70%. The profitability of the energy storage market currently relies on capacity subsidies and peak-shaving fees, with future profitability expected to shift towards arbitrage based on peak and valley price differences [9] - The focus in 2026 is expected to shift from scale expansion to system value, emphasizing the ability to manage and predict fluctuations in energy supply and demand [9] Consumer Group - Google and Walmart have announced a deepened collaboration on AI shopping features, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of AI in e-commerce. This partnership aims to enhance the capabilities of AI assistants in product discovery, recommendations, and transactions [11][12] - Fast Retailing reported strong performance for FY26Q1, with revenues of 1,027.7 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. The core brand Uniqlo showed robust growth, particularly in international markets, which is expected to drive demand in the upstream supply chain [13]

Group 1 - Barclays has significantly raised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's short-term bond purchases in 2026 to $525 billion, up from a previous estimate of $345 billion, indicating a sharp decline in net supply of short-term bonds available to private investors [1] - Mizuho Securities economists noted that Japan's central bank's short-term survey shows that the diffusion index for large manufacturers remains at +15 for the next three months, suggesting reduced concerns over Trump's tariffs [1] - Morgan Stanley's G10 FX strategy head predicts that the dollar may weaken by 5% in the first half of next year as the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan forecasts that the Federal Reserve will maintain monthly bond purchases of $40 billion until mid-April next year, with total secondary market purchases expected to reach $490 billion for the year, leading to a reduction in net issuance of short-term bonds to $274 billion [1] - Citigroup analysts believe that despite high expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, upcoming employment and inflation data may alter policy expectations, indicating uncertainty in actual decision-making [3] - Goldman Sachs warns that if Haslett becomes the Federal Reserve chair, the policy may shift towards tolerating an "overheating economy," which could structurally weaken the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced the initiation of the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) tool starting December 12, with a plan to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury securities in the first month, maintaining a high level of purchases in subsequent months. This RMP is expected to inject approximately $150 billion in reserves into the market, lasting until Q2 2026, primarily focusing on ultra-short-term Treasury securities [2][5][25]. Group 1: Actions by the Federal Reserve - The RMP is a significant highlight of the December FOMC meeting, aimed at maintaining adequate reserve levels and addressing seasonal fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA) [5][6]. - The RMP will primarily purchase short-term Treasury securities, with 75% of purchases targeting securities with maturities of 1-4 months [25][26]. - The RMP is expected to last at least until Q2 2026, with a target reserve balance of around $3 trillion, requiring an injection of approximately $150 billion in reserves [6][28]. Group 2: Economic Implications of RMP - The RMP is expected to improve short-term liquidity, benefiting the stock market by facilitating "loose trading" conditions. However, it is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) and may have limited effects on long-term interest rates and financing costs for the real economy [7][35]. - The RMP's operational scale is designed to counteract seasonal liquidity pressures, particularly during tax payment periods, which can tighten market liquidity [6][29]. Group 3: Current Liquidity Conditions - The current reserve levels are slightly below the reasonable range, with the reserve balance to nominal GDP ratio at 9.5% and the reserve balance to total bank assets ratio at 11.8% [8][45]. - Maintaining adequate reserve levels is crucial for the effective implementation of the Federal Reserve's "floor system" monetary policy framework, which relies on sufficient reserves to control market interest rates [9][51]. - The liquidity conditions are tighter than desired, but the situation is better than during the previous QT phase, reducing the risk of a liquidity crisis [41][60].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a monthly purchase of $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities starting this Friday, exceeding market expectations, aimed at alleviating short-term interest rate pressures by replenishing bank reserves [1] - Major banks on Wall Street have revised their forecasts for U.S. Treasury supply in 2026, with Barclays projecting total purchases could approach $525 billion, up from a previous estimate of $345 billion [1] - JPMorgan also raised its forecast, expecting the Fed to maintain the $40 billion monthly purchase pace until mid-April next year, with total purchases nearing $490 billion, nearly doubling previous estimates [1] Group 2 - Investment banks believe the Fed's actions will effectively ease reserve tightness caused by balance sheet reduction, helping to lower short-term financing pressures and benefiting SOFR-federal funds spread trading [2] - Analysts noted that the Fed is managing the return to "adequate" reserve levels more cautiously than in 2019, reflecting a strong intent to avoid disorder in the funding markets [2] - Despite improved liquidity conditions, some institutions warn that year-end market volatility remains likely, as the December purchase scale may not cover the seasonal overnight funding demand [2] Group 3 - The Fed's shift from balance sheet reduction to replenishing reserves marks a new phase in the funding market, becoming a key variable for balancing U.S. Treasury supply and short-term interest rate trends in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while the Fed's tone remained neutral to slightly hawkish [2][20] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, with 3 out of 12 FOMC members opposing the cut, indicating internal dissent [20] - The dot plot indicates only one rate cut is expected next year, which is below market pricing of two cuts [3][12] - The Fed's economic outlook is described as "Goldilocks," with upward revisions to GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2028 and downward revisions to inflation forecasts for the same period [6][21] Group 2: Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for Q4 of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are now projected at 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8% [21] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for the same periods are adjusted to 3.0%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, down from 3.1%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2.0% [21] Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is restarting "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) to maintain adequate reserve levels, with a purchase scale of $40 billion per month starting this December [14][35] - RMP is distinct from quantitative easing (QE), as it involves purchasing short-term Treasury securities to manage liquidity rather than a broad monetary policy shift [15][16] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.67% [38] - The dollar index fell by 0.6% to 97.24, while yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds decreased [38]