Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are showing a pattern of low prices rising, and since the release of export quotas, both futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. The futures price is mainly in a strong oscillatory state, with the upper limit restricted by high daily production. Continued attention should be paid to the situation of Indian tenders [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong oscillatory trend. The futures rebound the previous day improved market trading sentiment, leading to increased low - price fertilizer stocking by downstream agricultural dealers. The supply side remains loose, with previously shut - down plants resuming production and expected output to continue increasing. Coal raw material prices are still rising, but the increase is narrowing. The start - up load of compound fertilizer plants decreased this week due to environmental inspections in North China, which is expected to improve after the inspections end. After the release of new export quotas last week, market purchases increased, and inventory is still being depleted [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1655 yuan/ton, closed at 1662 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250907 lots, a decrease of 3842 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 3069 lots and short positions decreased by 2327 lots [2] - Spot: The futures rebound the previous day improved market trading sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers increased low - price fertilizer stocking. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1540 - 1580 yuan/ton, with most increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price is in Hebei [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation decreased, while the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 52 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [7] - Supply Data: On November 18, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,200 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 82.91% [10] Warehouse Receipts - On November 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7183, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea trading atmosphere has improved. New orders were slow to follow up last week, but sales improved after price cuts. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is also winding down. Winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. Melamine operating rate has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. Gas - fired plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The news of export quotas has improved urea export expectations at the end of the year, which is expected to support the spot market. The Indian IPL has issued a new urea import tender, and the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm need to be continuously monitored [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][11] 2. Urea Production - The report presents data on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [20][25] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [29][30][33] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report provides data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [35][40][50] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows data on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [56][57][61] Market Data Details - **Price and Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,662 yuan/ton (+10). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,580 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton (-20), in Henan was - 62 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was - 82 yuan/ton (-20). Urea production profit was 60 yuan/ton (-10), and export profit was 1,048 yuan/ton (+116) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 148.36 million tons (-9.45), and the port sample inventory was 8.20 million tons (+0.30) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] Strategy - **Single - sided**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage - enterprise entry. The low valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but the price is supported at a low level. [1] - The trading strategy is to take profit on selling options and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term. [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 rose from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 rose from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by - 0.63%, - 0.62%, - 1.23%, and - 0.63% respectively, while those in Shanxi and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 0.67%, while that in Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu increased by 0.97%. [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 20.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged. [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1667 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1641 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1662 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1656 yuan/ton, and the position was 254752 lots. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -72, and the premium - discount ratio is -4.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is moderately weak, agricultural demand is weak, and the improvement in exports compared to the previous period boosts the market sentiment. The domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 million tons | | 19.5681 million tons | 4.4838 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 236,600 tons | 24.0519 million tons | | | 2019 | | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 4.8794 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 378,600 tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 6.1912 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 378,300 tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 3.5241 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 357,200 tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 3.3537 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 446,200 tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 2.9313 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 446,500 tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 3.6 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 514,000 tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1590 | -10 | 01 Contract | 1662 | 10 | Warehouse Receipts | 7183 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -72 | -20 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.566 million tons | | | Henan Spot | 1600 | 0 | UR01 | 1662 | 10 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.484 million tons | | | FOB China | 2843 | | UR05 | 1737 | 10 | UR Port Inventory | 82,000 tons | | | | | | UR09 | 1755 | 7 | | | | [6]

长江期货尿素周报： 反弹受限 宽幅震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-11-17 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 资料来源：博易大师，iFIND，长江期货 03 尿素基差与价差 尿素：反弹受限 宽幅震荡 01 1 市场变化：价格：尿素价格高开回落后震荡运行，11月14日尿素2601合约收盘价1652元/吨，较上周下调15元/吨， 跌幅0.9%。尿素现货河南市场日均价1594元/吨，较上周持平。基差：尿素主力基差先强后弱，11月14日河南市场 主力基差-58元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-63）—（-33）元/吨。价差：尿素1-5价差窄幅震荡，11月14日1-5价差 -75元/吨，周度运行区间（-77）—（-72）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率83.93%，较上周提升0.38个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率72.89%，较 上周持平，尿素日均产量19.67万吨。成本端无烟煤市场延续上行趋势，截至11月13日，山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小 块含税价900-96 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea spot new orders follow-up has slowed down. Affected by export news, the futures market has risen slightly and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Agricultural autumn fertilization is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilization is also wrapping up. Winter storage fertilizer production has not yet started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. The operating rate of melamine has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments have improved, factory inventories have decreased, and port inventories have slightly increased. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which improves the year-end export outlook and is expected to support the spot market. On November 7, India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tenders, intending to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender closes on November 20, is valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures on Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [3][4][5] 2. Urea Production - Figures on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [4][5] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows figures on production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates [4][5] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Figures on urea small particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small and large particle FOB and CFR prices in China, and urea export and on - screen export profits are presented [4][5] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided [4][5] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and main contract positions and trading volumes are presented [4][5] Market Data - On November 13, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,658 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 58 yuan/ton (-3), the Henan basis was - 48 yuan/ton (-3), and the Jiangsu basis was - 68 yuan/ton (-13). Urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 940 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (+0.08%), the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42 days) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: "消息证伪，回归基本面" - Release Date: November 13, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department - Author's Qualification Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market was generally warm today. After the export news was falsified, the market returned to the fundamental logic. The upstream factory resumption and new production increased the daily output, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price. The downstream inventory was being depleted, and the market was affected by factors such as environmental inspections and raw material price fluctuations [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The overall commodity futures market was warm. Urea opened flat and moved lower, with a slight increase during the day. The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. - The upstream factory resumption and new production pushed the daily output to 200,000 tons, nearly 9% higher than the same period last year, and high daily output was expected to continue this month. The coal price rebounded rapidly in the heating season, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price due to the cold winter expectation [1]. - The autumn fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions was basically finished, and the compound fertilizer factory's start - up load decreased. After the end of environmental inspections, the start - up rate would rise again. The autumn fertilizer inventory was being depleted, and the winter storage policy was cautious due to raw material price fluctuations. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchases increased, and the inventory was being depleted [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,652 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, and rose in the afternoon, closing at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250,538 lots, a decrease of 5,582 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 2,296 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,046 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of +397 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of +599 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +761 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +926 lots [2]. Spot - The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 13, 2025, the national urea daily output was 207,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 85.51% [11]. Enterprise Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [12]. Downstream Data - From November 7 to November 13, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Urea spot new orders follow-up slowed down, and the futures market rose slightly due to export news. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is winding up, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. The overall operating rate remains stable. Melamine operating rate increased slightly, with rigid demand procurement. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and inventory decreased. The high inventory area is still Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light storage rhythm. The news of the fourth batch of 600,000 tons of export quotas has improved the year-end export expectation of urea, which is expected to support the spot market. India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tender on November 7, with an intention to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender will close on November 20, be valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 12, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton (+15). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was -55 yuan/ton (-25), in Henan was -45 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was -55 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (up 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 12, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (-10), and the export profit was 930 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but the export profit is mentioned in the price and basis section, with an export profit of 930 yuan/ton (-1) on November 12, 2025 [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (unchanged), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (up 3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The urea market showed a pattern of opening low and then rising in the afternoon. Although downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. With upstream factory复产 and new production increasing daily output to 200,000 tons and expected to maintain high production this month, the abundant supply makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. The rising coal prices in the heating season are expected to support the urea price from the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for reserve - type domestic use, and raw material fertilizer preparation will gradually start as factories resume work. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchasing has increased, and inventory has been declining. The afternoon market rally was mainly due to export news and improved demand, but supply and high inventory still create significant upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1643 yuan/ton, opened low and then rose in the afternoon, closing at 1655 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The trading volume was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2,247 lots and short positions increased by 2,515 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: Downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, but there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with limited transactions at the high end [1][3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, an increase of 146 from the previous trading day, with all the increase from Ningling Stanley [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: On November 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,500 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51% [10]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease [11]. - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 12, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [11].

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑不足，盘面下挫 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 11 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌，基本收复上周五涨幅。下游畏高，上游工厂 多执行前期低价订单，预计短期现货报价将继续下调。山东、河南及河北尿素工 厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1550-1600 元/吨，个别工厂低端价格略有下调。 基本面来看，供应端基本稳定，日产在 20 万吨左右震荡运行，复产及新投产支 撑高供应的运行。煤炭原料端，供暖旺季价格快速回升，今年冷冬预期下，成本 线预计持续支撑尿素下方。期货盘面降温后，市场高价成交抵触，下游需求以储 备型内需为主，苏皖地区的小麦肥收尾，复合肥工厂刚需拿货，目前工厂开工温 和上行，冬储政策尚未明确，东北地区工厂预计月底逐渐开工，备肥节奏缓慢， 下游需求目前难以支撑价格。供需相对宽松，上游厂内尿素库存继续增加，且部 分上游工厂以淡储为主，谨慎出货，预计库存继续环比回升。出口消息目前基本 被盘面消化，而疲弱内需难以支撑行情，期现共振下行，现货依然贴水于期货， 但基差环比收窄。 2025 年 11 月 11 日，尿素仓单数量 6812 张，环比上个交易日+685 张，辽宁 化 ...