成文日期：20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250919）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行，收盘价为 1661 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手，较上日减少 0.1 万手，持仓量 29.7 万手，较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1： 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply Recovery, Limited Demand Support [1] Core View - Urea prices fluctuated this week, with the futures price slightly down and the spot price also decreasing. The supply has increased as maintenance devices resumed operation, while agricultural demand is scattered. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers has slightly improved, but urea production and sales are still weak, and enterprise inventories have continued to accumulate. The port is exporting, and attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and the positive - spread trading opportunity of the 1 - 5 spread [3]. Market Changes - **Price**: On September 19, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,661 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.12%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 1.22% [3][6]. - **Basis**: The main urea basis weakened. On September 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 36 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from - 51 to - 35 yuan/ton [3][8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened. On September 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan/ton, and the weekly range was from - 61 to - 48 yuan/ton [3][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 80.24%, an increase of 2.78 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.94%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output was 190,000 tons. Next week, some Shanxi manufacturers' devices are planned to stop or undergo maintenance, while the maintenance devices of Henan Xinlianxin are gradually resuming. It is expected that the spot supply will still increase, with the daily output ranging from 185,000 to 195,000 tons [10]. Cost - The anthracite market increased slightly. As of September 18, the含税 price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 920 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 10 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: National agricultural demand is scattered at this stage. Autumn harvest is underway in the Northwest, Jianghan, and Southwest regions. In Chongqing, the harvest of rice and corn is basically completed, and the soybean harvest is over 50%. In Sichuan, about 70% of the rice and 60% of the corn have been harvested. In Guizhou, about 40% of the autumn grain has been harvested. In Hubei, nearly 70% of the corn, nearly 60% of the soybeans, and nearly 20% of the single - cropping rice have been harvested [3][19]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 799,800 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved [3][19]. - **Other Industrial Demand**: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.76%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 27,480 tons. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation for nearly two months. Urea port inventory was 837,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week. There were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 156,200 tons [3][25]. Key Points of Attention - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

尿素日报 | 2025-09-19 八月出口80万吨，港口库存去化 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-18，尿素主力收盘1670元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1650 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1640元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-30 元/吨（+1）；河南基差：-20元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：-20元/吨（+11）；尿素生产利润110元/吨（-10），出口利润1158 元/吨（-5）。 供应端：截至2025-09-18，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-18，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，山东河南价格跌至1580元/吨后成交好转，厂家上调报价后成交一般。目前部分 地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥厂拿货积极性不 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-09-18 内需偏弱，厂内库存继续累积 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-17，尿素主力收盘1681元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1660 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-31 元/吨（+5）；河南基差：-21元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：-31元/吨（+5）；尿素生产利润120元/吨（+0），出口利润1163 元/吨（-4）。 供应端：截至2025-09-17，企业产能利用率79.34%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为54.94 万吨（-7.15）。 需求端：截至2025-09-17，复合肥产能利用率37.82%（+4.74%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.38%（-3.60%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，山东河南价格跌至1580元/吨后成交好转，厂家上调报价后成交一般。目前部分 地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥厂拿货积极性不高，逢低采购 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差79，升贴水比例4.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超 ...

9月上旬尿素期货价格整体呈现下跌走势，现货市场观望情绪较浓。短期来看，尿素供需宽松，市场情 绪偏空。在缺乏明显利多驱动的情况下，预计期货价格维持偏弱震荡态势。 现货市场交投氛围依旧偏弱，部分地区现货报价明显下移，山东、河南等主要产区中小颗粒尿素出厂价 普遍跌至年内低位。在需求难以显著增长的情况下，现货市场疲软态势预计将持续。 供应方面，尽管部分装置检修导致日产量短期降至19万吨，但国内尿素整体供应仍处于相对高位。根据 隆众资讯数据，9月第2周新增4台装置停车，4台装置恢复生产，产量小幅上涨；产能利用率为 79.34%，环比上升1.24个百分点。随着计划检修的装置数量不断减少，预计尿素产能利用率和日产量都 将进一步提升。根据最新的产能投放计划，今年四季度仍有新增产能释放，2026年尿素日产量可能突破 21万吨大关，届时国内供应压力将进一步加剧。此外，当前上游企业库存持续累积，处于近5年同期高 位。最新数据显示，国内尿素企业总库存为113.27万吨，同比增长50%，库存压力较大。2025年尿素生 产利润同比明显下滑，新型气流床生产利润约300元/吨，传统固定床生产利润约50元/吨，天然气工艺 生产利润约150元/ ...

成文日期：20250912 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 载 Hour 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250912）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下跌，收盘价为 1663 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1661 元/吨,成交量 12.5 万 手，较上日持平，持仓量 30.1 万手，较上日增加 0.8 万手。 表 1：尿素期货当日行情表 20250912 1：尿素主力合约分时图 | 合约名称 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 目增仓 成交量 开盘 最高 最低 | | --- | | 尿素2509 ----------------- 1336 - 1583 - 1568 - 1578 | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2601 M | 图 2：尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 图片来源：国金期货 wh ...

持续弱势 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 17 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内偏弱震荡，现货收单热情不及昨日，价格小涨后成交不 畅，行情稳定为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多 在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要执 行出口集港订单。尿素日产维持在 19 万吨左右进行，一方面山西尿素装置技改， 另一方面阅兵检修减产，前期产量有下滑，但随着装置复产及产能的投放，日产 依然预计偏高位运行，压制尿素价格。需求端，价格跌至低位后，下游拿货情绪 转好。复合肥工厂开工率偏低主要一方面终端需求疲软，前期备货已近 78 成， 另一方面厂内成品库存高企。虽然目前工厂利润尚且可观，但企业依然以库存去 化为重点，后续高位开工的几率不大。本期库存依然表现为增加，且目前库存高 企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整体来说，盘面筑底中，后续有反 弹机会，上方关注 1730 元/吨附近压力，但宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动。 【期现行情】 【冠通研究】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1685 元/吨开盘，低开低走，日内偏弱震荡， 最终收于 16 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, go long on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is low; after the export window period, go short on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the trading volume improved, and the subsequent sustainability needs attention [2] - The urea production is running at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand remain relatively loose [2] - The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [2] - The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. In September, it is still the export window period, and the urea export is ongoing with an accelerating pace. The export volume in August and September is expected to be good. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Information on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][8][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Information on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Information on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based production capacity utilization rate, and gas - based production capacity utilization rate is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Information on urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, price differences, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37][40][47] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Information on the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract open interest, and main contract trading volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][55][58] 4. Market Data as of September 15, 2025 4.1 Price and Basis - Urea main contract closed at 1,683 yuan/ton (+20) - The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1,640 yuan/ton (0) - The small - particle price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton (-20) - The small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (-10) - The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0) - The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-40) - The basis in Henan was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - The basis in Jiangsu was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - Urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-20) - Export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+62) [1] 4.2 Supply - side - The enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (+0.08%) - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77) - The port sample inventory was 54.94 million tons (-7.15) [1] 4.3 Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.82% (+4.74%) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.38% (-3.60%) - The number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.88 days (+0.47) [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-20），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差77，升贴水比例4.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超预期放开，国内整体供 过于求仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 重要提示：本报告非期货交易 ...