大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 8 月 19 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货午后增仓大涨，最终报收 1817（+62/+3.53%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价弱稳，成交一般，河南出厂报 1660-1680 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1690 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1710 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1630-1640 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1540-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】8 月 19 日，尿素行业日产 19.84 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.2 万吨；较去 年同期增加 3.01 万吨；今日开工 85.70%，较去年同期 76.31%提升 9.39%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价平稳，成交转弱。山东地区 主流出厂报价窄幅反弹，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单 成交乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价暂稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳， 贸易商观望 ...

> 尿素:截至8月19日午盘,尿素主力期货快速拉升涨幅 超过3%。 市场快讯 -- 出口印度可能放宽,尿素期价快速拉涨 2025年8月19日 主要受以下几方面原因影响: 1.据最新市场消息,中国准备向印度供应化肥,稀土材料和隧道 挖掘机。 2. 新一轮印标东西海岸各100万吨,时间比较紧,届时临近国内出 口窗口期10月15日。中国7月出口尿素57万吨,1-7月累计出口64 万吨。第二批出口配额150万吨。预计7-8月出口量高位,第二批 配额还有,集中出口在8-9月。 操作建议:短期国内供需基本面支撑有限,新一轮印标引导现货 市场情绪,昨日主流区现货成交好转,短期价格底部反弹,单边 谨慎追多,前期多单继续持有,未入场等回调布局远月多单。 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 研究员:吴志桥 从 | 资格 F03085283 交易咨询:Z0019267 联系方式:wuzhigiao@g ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, and the spot price has stabilized due to the release of the Indian tender and export news. However, the subsequent domestic demand drive is not obvious, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. There is still a large export space for urea in July, and the subsequent implementation needs to be monitored. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the future supply - demand is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The Indian tender and demand will boost the international urea market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1754 yuan/ton (+17). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+30), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (+13), in Henan was - 14 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was - 14 yuan/ton (+13) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 52 million tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 60 million tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20, but with the release of new production capacity, the future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 18, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+30), and the export profit was 1321 yuan/ton (-49). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Urea exports continued in August, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. India's NFL issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. The urea export in July was 57 million tons, and there is still a large export space compared with the previously recognized export quota [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48% (+1.98%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (-11.28%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is affected by the parade, with melamine and panel factories expected to reduce production. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the finished product inventory has accumulated, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90) [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。"反内卷"情绪降温后走势回归基本面。国内供应方面，日 产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥、三聚氰胺开工均偏低， 农业需求偏弱。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口利润有所回落但仍较强，出口政策未超预期 放开。交割品现货1850（+40），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差96，升贴水比例5.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存145.7万吨（-0.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - **Base Difference**: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral; for inter - delivery spread, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when the spread is high; there is no recommendation for inter - commodity trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading atmosphere continues to weaken, and spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. Although the output of urea is at a high level and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, the supply - demand situation of urea will remain relatively loose in the future. The profit of coal - based urea production is acceptable, but the cost support is weak. Urea exports are ongoing, and port inventories are fluctuating slightly. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [7][8][12][21] 2. Urea Production - It presents the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows the production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and the national capacity utilization rate [21][24][29] 4. Urea Off - shore Prices and Export Profits - It includes the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - sized urea in China, and the urea export profit and the profit of export on the futures market [26][28][32][35][38] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders are presented [48][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position and trading volume of the main contract [46][49][50] Market Data - **Price and Basis**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,726 yuan/ton (unchanged); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 1,720 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton); in Jiangsu, it was 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), in Henan it was 14 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 4 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of urea was 190 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the export profit was 1,374 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of August 14, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (up 0.08 percentage points). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (up 6.98 million tons), and the inventory of port samples was 46.40 million tons (down 1.90 million tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of August 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48% (up 1.98 percentage points); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (down 11.28 percentage points); the number of days of pre - received orders of urea enterprises was 6.29 days (down 0.24 days) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market trading atmosphere has weakened. After a slight price increase in some areas, the trading volume is average. The downstream agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak due to the impact of the military parade. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea remains loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, but the cost - side support is weak. August is the export window period, and the urea export continues with narrow fluctuations in port inventory. The Indian IPL urea import tender has a confirmed winning bid of 207.5 tons. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in export dynamics [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 13, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1726 yuan/ton (-1); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1730 yuan/ton (+10); in Jiangsu, it was 1730 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton (+11); in Henan, it was 14 yuan/ton (+11); in Jiangsu, it was 4 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 13, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.98% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 tons (+6.98) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 3.4 Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1377 yuan/ton (+12). The Indian IPL urea import tender had a confirmed winning bid of 207.5 tons, with 103.5 tons on the east coast at CFR 532 US dollars/ton and 104 tons on the west coast at CFR 530 US dollars/ton [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.50% (+2.82%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.10% (-2.40%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 48.30 tons (-1.00) [1]

尿素日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1726（+0/+0%）。 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，低价一般，河南出厂报 1660-1680 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1700 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1710 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1620-1630 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1690-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1570-1630 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】8 月 13 日，尿素行业日产 19.12 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.15 万吨；较去 年同期增加 2.23 万吨；今日开工 82.59%，较去年同期 76.60%提升 5.99%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价止跌企稳，成交转弱。山东 地区主流出厂报价止跌反弹，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库 存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货， 新单成交乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价暂稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价 暂稳，贸易商观望，收单量下 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - Downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, while downstream industrial demand is gradually increasing. The compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season with increased production rates but maintains just - in - time procurement. Urea production remains at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With new production capacity coming on stream, future urea supply will continue to rise. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, but cost - side support is weak. August is the export window period, and urea exports continue. Port inventory fluctuates slightly, and the export volume is expected to change little. Attention should be paid to the impact of export - related information on market sentiment [2] 3) Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On August 11, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,722 yuan/ton (-6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,730 yuan/ton (-30); in Jiangsu, it was 1,740 yuan/ton (-40). The basis in Shandong was 8 yuan/ton (-24); in Henan, it was 18 yuan/ton (-34); in Jiangsu, it was 18 yuan/ton (-34) [1] II. Urea Production - As of August 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 81.98% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with new production capacity coming on stream, future supply will continue to rise [1][2] III. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (-30). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, but cost - side support is weak. As of August 11, 2025, the national capacity utilization rate was 81.98% (0.08%), the coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate are also mentioned in the report [1] IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,323 yuan/ton (+359). August is the export window period, and urea exports continue. Port inventory fluctuates slightly, and the export volume is expected to change little [1][2] V. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - As of August 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.50% (+2.82%); that of melamine was 61.10% (-2.40%); the number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 6.53 days (+0.41). The compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season with increased production rates but maintains just - in - time procurement [1][2] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 88.76 million tons (-2.97), and the port sample inventory was 48.30 million tons (-1.00). Upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and port inventory fluctuates slightly [1][2]