Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - **Base Difference**: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Energy Chemical Research Report - Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1726 (+0/+0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were stable. Henan's factory price was reported at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong's small - particle factory price at 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, Hebei's small - particle factory price at 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi's medium and small - particle factory price at 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Anhui's small - particle factory price at 1690 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia's factory price at 1570 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On August 13, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.12 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.23 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 82.59%, a 5.99% increase from 76.60% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Generally average. Mainstream regional urea spot factory quotes stopped falling and stabilized, with weaker transactions. Shandong's mainstream factory quotes rebounded, but market sentiment was average. Industrial compound fertilizer operating rates increased slightly, with sufficient raw material inventories, high finished - product inventories, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. Henan's market sentiment was low, with stable factory quotes, and traders were waiting and watching. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily average production dropped to around 19 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. Urea production enterprise inventories increased by 5.38 tons to around 91.73 tons, at a high level overall [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tenders was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared to the previous period. There was a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which boosted the domestic market sentiment to some extent. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, and grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the available days of urea inventory were more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was low [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, domestic demand was still limited. Agricultural demand had ended, and compound fertilizers had not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment was generally stable. After some regions lowered factory prices, manufacturers still had difficulty in receiving orders. The Indian tender confirmed 2.1 million tons of supply, in line with market expectations, and the spot market sentiment weakened again [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The international spot prices of urea have different trends in various regions, with some falling and some rising. The domestic urea market is influenced by both demand and sentiment, with inventory showing a complex pattern of change. The futures market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, export information, and agricultural demand trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation: Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices over the years [5][9][15] Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3460000 tons, with some projects already put into production [24] - **Production Maintenance Plan**: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans in 2025, including Jiangsu Huachang, Shanxi Tianze, etc., with reasons mainly being routine or policy - related maintenance [28] - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate also shows certain trends over the years [30][31] - **Cost**: The raw material prices are weak, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has shifted downwards [32] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [33] - **Net Imports (Exports)**: Due to the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase [40] Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong, and the construction of high - standard farmland has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn [44][47] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizer show trends in production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [51][52][53] - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine have their own trends [55][56] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand from real estate for wood - based panels has limited support, while the export of wood products has resilience [58][59] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On June 18, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41100 tons from the previous week, a 3.49% decrease. Some provincial enterprises' inventories increased, and some decreased [63] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025 (week 25), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 295000 tons, a 50000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.41% increase [63] International Urea - Multiple graphs show the trends of international urea prices, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil over the years [67][68][69][70]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be weak in the short - term, with both futures and spot prices likely to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Urea futures decreased with increased positions, closing at 1711 (-35/-2%) [3] - Spot market: The decline in factory - gate prices widened, and trading was sluggish. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1730 - 1750 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1700 - 1810 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On June 23, the daily urea production was 19.98 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons from the previous workday and 2.86 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 86.31%, a 7.24% increase from 79.07% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market sentiment was still weak, with factory - gate prices in major regions falling more sharply and trading being sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream factory - gate price led the decline, and it is expected to continue to fall. In Henan, the market sentiment was also weak, and the price is expected to decline. In the delivery area, the price is likely to keep falling [5] - Although some plants were under maintenance and the daily output dropped below 200,000 tons, it was still at the highest level in the same period. The international market price rose due to the Middle - East conflict, and the large price difference between domestic and international markets had a certain positive impact on the domestic market [5] - The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer plants in central and northern China was low, and the overall demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises was still relatively high, but it decreased slightly to around 1.04 million tons this week [5] - After the Indian tender results were announced, the export orders increased, which boosted the market. However, as the price in the central mainstream delivery area rose, the downstream started to wait and see, and the spot price has been falling since the weekend, with weak order receipts [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options on rebounds [6]

2025 年 06 月 16 日 尿素：短期或有反弹，日内波动关注现货成交 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,661 | 1,646 | 1 5 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,665 | 1,654 | 1 1 | | | | 成交量 （手） | 263,369 | 232,160 | 31209 | | | | 持仓量 （手） | 284,793 | 307,079 | -22286 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 5,962 | 5,967 | - 5 | | | | 成交额 （万元） | 877,243 | 768,173 | 109071 | | | 差 | 山东地区基差 | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low on June 10, 2025, with a nearly 2% decline in the afternoon. The market sentiment is expected to continue weakening. Although supply has decreased slightly due to temporary inspections in some factories, the daily output remains around 200,000 tons, limiting the upside of the futures price. The demand is weak, with slow agricultural demand and low operating loads in compound fertilizer factories. After the wheat harvest, agricultural demand is expected to increase, but it may not change the oversupply situation. The current low price may lead to a rebound, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment is expected to weaken. Supply decreased slightly, but daily output is still around 200,000 tons, restricting the upside. Demand is weak, and after the wheat harvest, agricultural demand may increase but has limited support [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,700 yuan/ton and closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, a -1.24% change. The trading volume was 268,833 lots (+2,976 lots). The positions of the top 20 main players showed a decrease of 6,305 lots in long positions and an increase of 955 lots in short positions. On June 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,051, a decrease of 2 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: After a price cut yesterday, orders improved and prices were slightly raised. However, with the decline in futures today, the market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex-factory prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market price was stable, while the futures closing price declined. The basis of the September contract in Shandong strengthened by 19 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On June 10, 2025, the national daily urea output was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous day [9].