Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be weak in the short - term, with both futures and spot prices likely to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Urea futures decreased with increased positions, closing at 1711 (-35/-2%) [3] - Spot market: The decline in factory - gate prices widened, and trading was sluggish. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1730 - 1750 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1700 - 1810 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On June 23, the daily urea production was 19.98 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons from the previous workday and 2.86 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 86.31%, a 7.24% increase from 79.07% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market sentiment was still weak, with factory - gate prices in major regions falling more sharply and trading being sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream factory - gate price led the decline, and it is expected to continue to fall. In Henan, the market sentiment was also weak, and the price is expected to decline. In the delivery area, the price is likely to keep falling [5] - Although some plants were under maintenance and the daily output dropped below 200,000 tons, it was still at the highest level in the same period. The international market price rose due to the Middle - East conflict, and the large price difference between domestic and international markets had a certain positive impact on the domestic market [5] - The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer plants in central and northern China was low, and the overall demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises was still relatively high, but it decreased slightly to around 1.04 million tons this week [5] - After the Indian tender results were announced, the export orders increased, which boosted the market. However, as the price in the central mainstream delivery area rose, the downstream started to wait and see, and the spot price has been falling since the weekend, with weak order receipts [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options on rebounds [6]

2025 年 06 月 16 日 尿素：短期或有反弹，日内波动关注现货成交 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,661 | 1,646 | 1 5 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,665 | 1,654 | 1 1 | | | | 成交量 （手） | 263,369 | 232,160 | 31209 | | | | 持仓量 （手） | 284,793 | 307,079 | -22286 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 5,962 | 5,967 | - 5 | | | | 成交额 （万元） | 877,243 | 768,173 | 109071 | | | 差 | 山东地区基差 | 4 ...

【冠通研究】 支撑乏力，关注麦收后农需 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，午后价格下跌明显，收跌近 2%。昨日市场下 调价格后收单有好转，价格小幅调涨，但今日期货下跌，预计市场情绪继续转 弱为主。基本面来看，供应端山西天泽及安徽临泉临检，日产下降，但目前多 个统计口径尿素日产均位于 20 万吨左右，限制盘面上方空间。需求端，盘面价 格连连下降，市场情绪随之冷淡。小麦收麦尚未结束，农需不温不火，农业经 销商零星拿货，未集中进行补货。复合肥工厂灵活排产，夏季肥收尾阶段以库 存去化为主，开工负荷偏低。库存被动累库主动累库并行，需求疲弱叠加出口 检验等待下，库存同比偏高。小麦收割结束后，预计农需将增加，但对尿素支 撑力度有限，无法削弱供需过剩的核心逻辑，目前价格偏低，行情或有反弹， 反弹强度继续关注出口动态。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1700 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1678 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-1.24%，持仓量 268833 手（+2976 手）。前二十名主力持仓 席位来看，多头-6305 手，空头+955 手。其中，东证期货净 ...