Core Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry has been experiencing a significant upturn since 2025, driven by both domestic and international demand [1] - The issuance of the Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF on November 14 provides investors with an efficient tool to capitalize on this industry opportunity [1] Domestic Demand - Excavator sales in China increased by 21.50% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [2] - This growth is attributed to increased infrastructure investment, particularly in large-scale projects like water conservancy, and the release of demand for equipment upgrades due to national policies [2] - The expansion of application scenarios, such as high-standard farmland construction, is driving the penetration of small excavators into new fields like agriculture and municipal projects [2] Electrification Trend - The penetration rate of electric loaders reached 23% in the first three quarters of 2025, with electric excavators making breakthroughs in various applications [2] - The industry's electrification is expected to initiate a new growth cycle, supported by rising environmental standards and decreasing technology costs [2] International Market Growth - From 2015 to 2024, China's excavator export volume has seen a compound annual growth rate of 38%, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and improvements in product performance and service systems [3] - There remains significant potential for Chinese construction machinery to penetrate high-end markets in Europe and the U.S., with the global electrification trend providing new opportunities for Chinese companies [3] Investment Value - The Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, which has shown a cumulative return of 136.32% since its base date, outperforming major broad-based indices [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for over 70% of its weight, including leading companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG, which are all valued at over 100 billion [4] - The global construction machinery market is highly concentrated, with the top 50 companies generating sales of $237.6 billion in 2024, and domestic leaders are transitioning to a high-end manufacturing sector characterized by globalization, electrification, and intelligence [4] Conclusion - The construction machinery industry is currently benefiting from a dual drive of domestic recovery and accelerated international expansion, alongside the electrification transformation, highlighting its investment value [5]

智通财经APP获悉，万联证券发布研报称，10月挖掘机销量增速有所放缓，装载机销量保持高增长，但 从内需视角上看行业基本面依然稳固，国内更新换代的需求和大型基建项目的开工，为内需提供了有力 支撑。行业逐步进入增长新阶段，行业的竞争已超越传统规模与价格战，转向了全球化运营能力与技术 路线前瞻布局的比拼。未来在设备更新、地方政府化债等政策推动下，国内需求有望加速复苏。 万联证券主要观点如下： 10月中国挖掘机销量增速放缓 据中国工程机械工业协会对装载机主要制造企业统计，2025年10月销售各类装载机10,673台，同比增长 27.7%。其中国内销量5,372台，同比增长33.2%；出口量5,301台，同比增长22.6%。2025年1—10月，共 销售各类装载机104,412台，同比增长15.8%。其中国内销量55,368台，同比增长21.8%；出口量49,044 台，同比增长9.69%。电动化方面，9月销售电动装载机2,707台。 海外市场为增长的重要引擎，工程机械行业逐步进入增长新阶段 从内需来看，装载机销量保持高增长，尽管10月挖掘机增速有所放缓，但行业的基本面依然稳固，国内 更新换代的需求和大型基建项目的开工 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry has been experiencing a significant upturn since 2025, driven by both domestic and international demand [1][2] - The launch of the Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF on November 14 provides investors with an efficient tool to capitalize on this industry opportunity [1][5] Domestic Demand - Excavator sales in China increased by 21.50% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [2] - Factors contributing to this growth include increased infrastructure investment under "stabilizing growth" policies, particularly in large-scale projects like water conservancy [2] - The demand for equipment upgrades is being driven by the aging of existing machinery and national policies promoting equipment renewal [2] Electrification Trend - The penetration rate of electric loaders reached 23% in the first three quarters of 2025, with electric excavators making breakthroughs in various applications [2] - The industry's electrification is expected to initiate a new growth cycle due to rising environmental standards and decreasing technology costs [2] International Market Growth - From 2015 to 2024, China's excavator export volume has seen a compound annual growth rate of 38%, fueled by the Belt and Road Initiative and improvements in product performance [3] - There remains significant potential for Chinese construction machinery to penetrate high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [3] Investment Value - The Fuguo Fund's ETF tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, which has shown a cumulative return of 136.32% since its inception on June 30, 2016, outperforming major broad-based indices [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for over 70% of its weight, including leading companies like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [4] - The global construction machinery market is highly concentrated, with the top 50 companies generating sales of $237.6 billion in 2024, providing a favorable environment for domestic leaders to enhance their market share [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lingong Heavy Machinery, is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage its strong market position in the mining and aerial work equipment sectors, which are characterized as "dual leading" segments in the industry [1][7]. Company Overview - Lingong Heavy Machinery was established in 2012 and specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, sales, and service of machinery for mining, aerial work, and material handling [1]. - The company ranks third among domestic enterprises in the global mining transportation equipment and excavator market, and first in the domestic market for new energy mining transportation equipment as of 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Lingong Heavy Machinery from 2022 to 2024 are as follows: 10.529 billion yuan, 9.897 billion yuan, and 12.028 billion yuan, with a slight decline in 2023 followed by a recovery in 2024 [3]. - The company achieved a net profit of 0.954 billion yuan, 0.974 billion yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 0.635 billion yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [3]. Market Position and Growth - Lingong Heavy Machinery has expanded its sales footprint to over 100 countries, with overseas revenue increasing from 26.8% in 2022 to 44% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company has positioned itself as a leader in the electric and intelligent transformation of construction machinery, having sold approximately 1,600 new energy mining transportation devices by mid-2025 [2]. Industry Trends - The global engineering machinery market is projected to grow from 1.5372 trillion yuan in 2024 to 2.1319 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.6% [5]. - The aerial work equipment market is expected to grow from 62.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 136.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 21.5% [5]. Competitive Landscape - The engineering machinery industry is characterized by increasing competition, with major players like XCMG and SANY expanding aggressively in overseas markets [7]. - Lingong Heavy Machinery faces challenges in maintaining its market position, particularly in the aerial work equipment sector, where it experienced a 57% revenue decline in 2024 [7].

Core Insights - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a new development phase driven by three key factors: domestic demand recovery, rapid overseas exports, and accelerated electrification transformation [2][3] Global Market Overview - According to KHL data, the global engineering machinery market is projected to reach USD 237.6 billion by 2024, with a highly concentrated competitive landscape where the global CR3 exceeds 30% [2][3] - Leading international companies like Caterpillar and Komatsu dominate the market, while domestic firms are increasing their global market share due to technological advancements and cost advantages [2][3] Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic demand for excavators saw a year-on-year increase of 21.5% from January to September 2025, indicating a recovery phase [3] - Key drivers for domestic demand include: 1. Continued growth in infrastructure investment supported by "stabilizing growth" policies, particularly large-scale projects like hydropower [3] 2. The arrival of the equipment replacement cycle and national policies promoting machinery updates [3] 3. Expanding application scenarios, such as agricultural and municipal projects, driving demand for smaller excavators [3] - The electrification transition is injecting new growth momentum, with electric loader penetration reaching 23% in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] International Market Growth - From 2015 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for excavator exports is projected at 38%, driven by: 1. Increased infrastructure investments in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative [4] 2. Improved product performance and after-sales service of domestic companies, enhancing their competitiveness against international brands [4] 3. The cost-effectiveness of Chinese manufacturing becoming more pronounced in an inflationary environment [4] - Chinese companies have significant growth potential in high-end markets in Europe and the U.S., with electrification providing new opportunities for early-mover electric products [4] Index Analysis - The CSI Engineering Machinery Index, which includes 50 representative stocks from the engineering machinery sector, reflects the overall market performance of listed companies in this industry [5] - The index is heavily weighted towards large-cap stocks, with over 50% of its weight in companies with a market capitalization exceeding RMB 100 billion [5] - The index's valuation is currently at a historically high level, but with expectations of continued domestic recovery and global expansion, the industry is transitioning into a high-end manufacturing sector characterized by globalization, electrification, and intelligence [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the engineering machinery industry [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a new development phase driven by domestic renewal demand recovery, rapid overseas export growth, and accelerated electrification transformation [2][3][4]. - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach USD 237.6 billion in 2024, with a highly concentrated competitive landscape where the top three companies hold over 30% market share [2][21]. - Domestic demand is stabilizing and recovering, supported by infrastructure investment and equipment renewal policies, while electrification is expected to initiate a new growth cycle [3][27][39]. - Overseas exports are growing rapidly, driven by infrastructure construction in Belt and Road Initiative countries and the competitive strength of Chinese manufacturers [4][51][62]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - Excavator sales in China are recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 21.50% in the first nine months of 2025 [3][27]. - The recovery is driven by three main factors: sustained infrastructure investment, the arrival of the equipment renewal cycle, and the expansion of application scenarios [3][34]. - The penetration rate of electric loaders reached 23% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a significant shift towards electrification [3][45]. Overseas Market - The export volume of excavators is expected to grow at a CAGR of 38% from 2015 to 2024, with significant opportunities in high-end markets in Europe and North America [4][51]. - In 2024, exports to Belt and Road countries reached USD 33.298 billion, accounting for 62.97% of total exports [58]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese manufacturers increasing their market share in overseas markets [68][60]. Competitive Landscape - The global engineering machinery market is dominated by Caterpillar and Komatsu, with Chinese manufacturers like XCMG and SANY showing significant growth in market share [68][60]. - The overall market share of Chinese manufacturers increased from 13.4% in 2013 to 18.4% in 2024, indicating a positive trend [68][69]. Investment Value Analysis - The CSI Engineering Machinery Index focuses on leading companies in the sector, with over 50% of its weight in large-cap stocks [5][74]. - The index is currently valued at a historically high level, but with expected growth in domestic demand and global expansion, the industry is anticipated to experience significant profit growth [5][74].

Core Insights - The company participated in the 2026 Investment Summit, highlighting strong resilience in domestic excavator sales due to the replacement cycle of existing equipment and the commencement of large infrastructure projects, which are driving demand in the domestic construction machinery industry [1] - The company is leading in global operations, with overseas revenue continuing to grow robustly, supported by high demand for mining equipment in regions like Indonesia and Africa [3] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic excavator sales show strong resilience, with September sales growth rates for small, medium, and large excavators at 29%, 6%, and -5% year-on-year respectively [2] - The recovery in domestic demand is primarily due to the replacement cycle of existing equipment, with the previous upcycle from 2015 to 2023 leading to a concentrated replacement period now [2] - Major projects such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station and the New Tibet Railway are expected to enhance overall demand for construction machinery [2] Overseas Market Expansion - The company’s overseas layout is advanced, with export sales growth rates for small, medium, and large excavators at 29%, 2%, and 94% year-on-year respectively in September [3] - The company reported overseas revenue of 26.302 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%, accounting for 58.7% of total revenue [3] - Key regions such as North America and Africa are experiencing strong growth, with the company being the largest construction machinery enterprise in China and the third largest globally from 2020 to 2024 [3] Electric and Mining Equipment Development - The company is committed to advancing electric vehicle research and development, with significant results expected from its electric strategy upgrade in 2025 [4] - The fifth generation of electric loaders was launched globally in March 2025, with models covering various operational needs [4] - The mining machinery segment is being strengthened to meet the growing overseas demand, with the first 400-ton hydraulic excavator set to roll off the production line in December 2024 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 8.944 billion, 11.975 billion, and 15.591 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.32, and 1.71 yuan [5] - The target price is set at 33 yuan, based on a 25 times PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's leadership in the industry and potential benefits from the domestic construction machinery upcycle [5]

Summary of the Conference Call for Hengli Hydraulic Industry Overview - The hydraulic equipment industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the excavator segment, with various product categories showing substantial year-on-year increases. For instance, large and small excavator cylinders grew by 26-27% and 59% respectively, while large excavator pumps and valves saw growth exceeding 50% and 20% respectively [2][3][4]. Company Performance - Hengli Hydraulic's performance in Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, with overall revenue and profit showing accelerated growth. Specifically, excavator cylinder revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, and low-pressure pump revenue also grew by 15% [3]. - The company reported a gross margin of approximately 44% and a net margin of 25% in Q3 2025, indicating improved profitability due to higher capacity utilization [12]. Business Strategy and Development - Hengli Hydraulic has a strong focus on research and development, continuously increasing investment in R&D personnel and equipment. The company has also acquired overseas technology through acquisitions and has hired international teams to bolster its capabilities [6]. - The company has expanded its product offerings from hydraulic cylinders to pumps and valves since 2011, and more recently, it has focused on screw guide rails and electric cylinders, with an initial capacity of around 2 billion yuan [2][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Hengli Hydraulic holds a dominant position in the domestic market, with over 50% market share in hydraulic cylinders and pumps. The company has established solid partnerships with major domestic and international clients, including Caterpillar [7][12]. - The recovery of the engineering machinery industry, driven by large infrastructure projects in China, is expected to support demand for Hengli's products. Notable projects include the Yajiang project (1.2 trillion yuan), the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway (400 billion yuan), and rural road construction (1.5 trillion yuan) [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the demand for engineering machinery in 2025 and beyond, anticipating a stable increase in new demand and a rise in replacement demand due to the equipment update cycle [10]. - The recovery of the European and North American markets in Q2 and Q3 2025 is expected to boost overseas demand for Hengli's products, particularly small and medium excavator cylinders and pumps [4][11]. - For Q4 2025 and 2026, the company forecasts overall revenue growth, with excavator cylinder growth expected to exceed 30% and pump and valve growth projected between 20% and 30% [15]. Emerging Business Segments - The screw guide rail and electric cylinder business, while currently generating around 100 million yuan in revenue, is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, supported by partnerships with major clients like Tesla and domestic companies like Xiaomi [13][14]. Conclusion - Hengli Hydraulic is well-positioned for future growth, with a robust business strategy, strong market presence, and a focus on innovation and technology. The company is expected to continue benefiting from the recovery in the engineering machinery sector and the expansion of its product lines. Overall, the outlook remains positive for Hengli's performance in the coming years [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating a significant acceleration in performance growth [2] - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 2.62 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 660 million yuan, reflecting a 30.6% increase [2] - The excavator segment is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with small, medium, and large excavator cylinder revenues increasing by 60%, 5%, and 25% respectively, driven by market share gains [2] - The company's profitability has improved significantly, with a net profit margin of 25.2% in Q3, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The establishment of a hydraulic component production base in Mexico is expected to enhance the company's access to high-end customers in North America [4] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 8.985 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.011 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.78% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2.499 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.141 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 21.30% [1] - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.86 yuan in 2023 to 3.09 yuan in 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in China continue to grow, indicating a recovery in the internal demand cycle, with significant increases in various types of construction machinery sales, particularly in the excavator segment [4][5][6]. Group 1: Excavator Sales and Market Trends - In September 2025, the total excavator sales (including exports) reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, with domestic sales at 9,249 units, also up by 21.5% [4]. - From January to September 2025, excavator sales totaled 174,039 units, marking an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 89,877 units, up 21.5% [4]. - The sales of non-excavator construction machinery showed a notable recovery, with loader sales up 25.6%, grader sales up 6.5%, truck crane sales up 40.7%, crawler crane sales up 66.7%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 29.8% in September 2025 [4]. Group 2: Export Performance - In September 2025, excavator exports reached 10,609 units, a 29.0% year-on-year increase, while from January to September 2025, exports totaled 84,162 units, up 14.6% [5]. - The export value of construction machinery in September 2025 was $5.27 billion, reflecting a 29.6% year-on-year growth, with a total export value of $43.86 billion from January to September 2025, up 13.3% [5]. - The construction machinery export market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with opportunities arising from increased infrastructure and mining machinery demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, alongside challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [5]. Group 3: Electrification Trends - In September 2025, electric loader sales reached 2,586 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 176.0%, with an electrification rate of 24.6%, up 13.0 percentage points [6]. - From January to September 2025, electric loader sales totaled 21,407 units, a 157.2% year-on-year increase, with an electrification rate of 22.8%, up 13.6 percentage points [6][7]. - The government’s push for green transformation and energy-saving initiatives is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the construction machinery industry, enhancing revenue and profit for manufacturers [6][7]. Group 4: Infrastructure Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to boost demand for construction machinery significantly [8]. - The project is expected to require construction machinery worth between 120 billion to 180 billion yuan, with a focus on new energy and unmanned equipment due to environmental considerations [8].