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4年前立下“千万人口”FLAG的昆明:今年别提了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 01:55
2021年,昆明在"十四五"规划中立下了一个FLAG:到2025年,全市常住人口达到1000万人左右,经济总量跃上万亿台阶。 就在许下"豪言壮语"的这一年,昆明经济增速在全国50强城市中排名垫底,人口增量也被甩出全国前30。第二年年初,昆明被省长喊话:"要从感觉良好中 惊醒起来"。 时至今日,昆明不但没达成"双万"目标,还结束了连续20年的人口高增长。去年,昆明人口增量仅有0.7万,一脚踏上零增长的边缘。 这两年,昆明政府工作报告中也不再提及"双万"目标了。昆明,这下"惊醒"了吗? -01- 一再推迟的千万人口目标 一直以宜居著称的春城昆明,人口吸引力也曾位居省会城市前列。 七普数据显示,2010-2020年,昆明常住人口增长202.8万,高于如今的"人气选手"贵阳(166.3万)。2022年,昆明人口增量9.8万,首度跻身全国前 十。 2023年也有8万,保持稳定增长水平。 但2024年,昆明人口增长形势放缓,仅增长0.7万。其中除去0.24万的自然增长,来源于人口迁移的增长仅有0.46万。这是昆明自2005年采用常住人口统计口 径以来,首次逼近零增长。 在已公布数据的省会城市中,昆明的成绩排名倒数第二。而 ...
一年减少近100万人!中部六省,东北化了
城市财经· 2025-04-08 03:43
欢迎关注我的视频号"城市财经"↓ 作者:余飞 01 中部六省,一年减少近百万人 典型如山河四省,还有整个中部地区。 山河四省中,目前河北尚未公布数据,留待下一篇分析,这一篇聚焦中部六省。 去年本号写过一篇《首次!中部六省,人口集体负增长》的文章,描述了2023年中部的河南、湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、山西六个大省,人口全部负增长。 2023年六省人口合计减少133.333万人。 2024年中部局面稍微好了一些,安徽的常住人口由负转正,增加了两万人。 河南、湖南、湖北的人口减少规模比2023年有所收窄。 回过头看,东北的确只是先行者而已。 第七次人口普查数据显示,东北是全国人口流失最严重的地区。 数据显示,2010年至2020年十年间, 人口合计减少了1099万人,其中黑龙江减少了646万,吉林减少了338万,辽宁减少了115万。 2021年东北三省人口又合计减少了超100万人,2022年东北人口合计又减少了86.4万人。 然而,随着2021年全国人口增量创历史新低,2022年全国人口正式转向,2023年全国人口减少速度加快,很多曾经嘲笑东北的地区,也在东北化了。 河南2023年减少57万人,2024年减少30万人 ...
人口争夺战!合肥、长沙、南昌,虹吸全省!
城市财经· 2025-03-25 03:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the population growth trends in key cities in China, particularly focusing on the strong provincial capitals of Changsha, Nanchang, and Hefei, which are attracting population from their respective provinces due to various economic and policy factors [3][80]. Group 1: Population Data of Key Cities - Twelve key cities have released their permanent population data, with Shenzhen leading in growth with an increase of 199,400 people, followed by Hefei, Changsha, and Nanchang, all exceeding 100,000 in growth [4][7]. - Beijing and Tianjin experienced zero growth, with Beijing losing 26,000 residents [5][6]. - The overall trend shows that after the seventh national census, cities like Shenzhen regained their population competitiveness post-pandemic [8][10]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Population Growth - Hefei's population growth is attributed to its strong industrial base, particularly in the display and semiconductor industries, which have attracted significant investment and talent [14][31]. - Changsha benefits from relatively low housing prices, which have kept the cost of living manageable, leading to a population increase that topped the nation in 2022 [34][39]. - Nanchang's population growth has been more volatile, closely tied to its economic performance, with a notable rebound in 2024 linked to rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector [44][56]. Group 3: Strong Provincial Capital Strategy - The article emphasizes the "strong provincial capital" strategy, where provincial capitals like Hefei, Changsha, and Nanchang are absorbing population from surrounding areas, leading to a decline in overall provincial populations [80][91]. - This strategy is seen as a necessary response to the economic dynamics between coastal and inland regions, where strong capitals can attract resources and talent [86][100]. - The phenomenon of population siphoning is evident, with cities like Hefei and Changsha showing significant growth while their respective provinces experience overall population declines [96][99].