21世纪经济报道记者唐韶葵 市场表现最好的一线城市，春节后率先对楼市政策进行优化。 2月25日，上海市住建委、房管局、财政局、税务局、公积金管理中心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步 优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，此次新政从限购政策调减、公积金政策优化和房产税政策完善"三 箭齐发"，涉及7项具体内容，简称"沪七条"。 沪建房管联〔2026〕75号 关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知 各有关单位: 为促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,更好满足居民 刚性和改善性住房需求,经市政府同意,现就进一步 优化调整房地产相关政策通知如下: 一、进一步调减住房限购政策 (一)对非本市户籍居民家庭或成年单身人士购 买外环内住房的,购房所需缴纳社会保险或个人所得 [21] 税的年限,调整为购房之日前连续缴纳满1年及以上。 (二)对在本市缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满 3 年及以上的非本市户籍居民家庭或成年单身人士,在 执行现有住房限购政策基础上,可在外环内增购1套 住房。 (三)对持《上海市居住证》满5年及以上的非 本市户籍居民家庭或成年单身人士,在本市限购1套 住房。 二、优化住房公积金贷款政策 (一)适度提高住房公积金最高贷款额度,缴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving from speculation to a focus on housing as a necessity, with significant changes in policies and market dynamics expected to stabilize prices and improve housing quality [1][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The housing prices in major cities are entering a bottoming phase, marking the end of extreme volatility [4]. - The logic of the real estate market is fundamentally changing, moving from "speculation for profit" to "housing for living" [6]. - The government is implementing policies to control price fluctuations, ensuring that housing prices do not rise or fall dramatically, emphasizing stability [8]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has set the tone for the housing market in 2026, focusing on controlling supply, reducing inventory, and promoting the sale of existing homes to prevent unfinished projects [7]. - New tax policies have been introduced, reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, and exempting properties sold after two years from this tax nationwide [10]. - The central bank has lowered the down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers to a minimum of 15% and for second homes to 25%, alongside the lowest mortgage rates in nearly five years [11][12]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Banks are now directly selling properties, with listings for repossessed and existing homes at prices 16%-31% lower than market rates, indicating a rapid move towards inventory reduction [13][14]. - The demographic data shows a decline in new births and an adequate supply of housing, leading to a rationalization of housing prices due to reduced demand [14]. - The shift towards selling existing homes means that developers must focus on quality and pricing based on real demand rather than speculative capital [14]. Group 4: Recommendations for Buyers - First-time buyers are encouraged to take advantage of low down payments, low interest rates, and reduced taxes by prioritizing the purchase of existing homes in prime locations [14]. - Families looking to upgrade should consider selling their older properties to acquire better-quality homes, benefiting from tax reductions [14]. - Investors holding multiple properties should consider selling less desirable assets to avoid losses, focusing on maintaining quality holdings [14].

截至1月，全国已有超60个城市出台楼市优化政策，优惠力度空前。金融支持方面，首套房贷利率降至 3.5%-4%区间，部分城市甚至进入"2字头"，创下近二十年新低；首付比例最低降至15%，公积金贷款额 度大幅提升，有效降低了购房门槛。税费优惠精准落地，换购住房个税退税政策延续至2027年，不足2 年住房增值税率从5%降至3%，一套500万的房产可节省近10万元税费，成功激活了"卖旧买新"的置换 链条。供给端更是出现突破性举措，地方政府用专项债收购存量房转化为保障房，3000亿元保障性住房 再贷款落地，既化解了房企风险，又加速了库存去化，为市场回暖扫清了障碍。 资金层面的宽松，为楼市回暖提供了充足弹药。当前居民储蓄存款突破160万亿，广义货币M2持续增 长，市场"弹药充足"，而央行维持流动性宽松，MLF利率稳步下行，为房贷利率走低提供了坚实支撑。 融资端"白名单"制度落地，2025年专项债限额4.4万亿元，"白名单"贷款超7万亿元，近20家房企完成债 务重组，行业风险化解取得实质进展，房企拿地积极性回升，土地市场热度回暖，预示着未来新房价格 存在明确的上涨空间。 市场层面，经过四年的深度调整，价格泡沫得到充分挤压， ...

开年即传来重磅信号！2026年1月，全国楼市打破持续调整态势，房价止跌企稳迹象愈发清晰，13个重 点城市二手房市场率先"发力"，成交数据爆发式增长，成为楼市回暖的核心力量。这不仅是房地产市场 的积极转变，更将深刻辐射上下游数十个产业，重塑发展逻辑——对普通人而言，这不是"炒房时代"回 归，而是关乎居住、就业、投资的全新机遇；对产业而言，更是摆脱下行压力、实现高质量转型的关键 转折点。 2026年1月楼市回暖，是政策持续发力与市场需求累积释放的必然结果，背后是国家构建房地产发展新 模式的战略布局。 政策层面，中央与地方协同稳市场。2025年底中央经济工作会议明确"着力稳定房地 产市场"，住建部部署"稳市场、防风险、优供给、促转型"四大目标，推动楼市从"增量扩张"向"存量优 化"转型。需求端红利凸显，首付比例降至15%，房贷利率逼近3%；2026年1月起住房交易税新规实 施，满2年住房免征增值税，不足2年税率从5%降至3%，极大激活置换链条；北京已放宽非京籍购房条 件，业内预测2026年一线城市将全面取消限购。 供给端同样发力，中央鼓励地方用专项债收购存量商品房，转化为保障房、人才房等，缓解房企压力、 加快去库存 ...

1月房价跌幅收窄，并非偶然，而是政策发力、市场调整与季节性因素共同作用的结果。自2025年底以 来，中央及地方层面密集出台稳楼市举措，形成了"政策组合拳"，为市场回暖注入了强劲动力。在信贷 层面，央行、金融监管总局联合下调首套、二套住房商业性个人住房贷款最低首付比例至15%和25%， 创历史最低水平，同时下调房贷利率，部分城市首套房贷利率低至"2字头"，有效降低了购房门槛与月 供压力；在税收层面，财政部、税务总局宣布对个人销售住房增值税免征年限由5年调整为2年，显著降 低了住房交易成本，激发了部分刚需和改善性需求的释放。 近日，国家统计局发布1月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况，这份开年首份核心楼市数据引发 市场高度关注。数据显示，70城房价整体呈现"跌幅收窄、局部回升"的态势，新建商品住宅与二手住宅 价格环比跌幅均较上月有所收窄，一线核心城市率先显现企稳迹象。随着传统楼市旺季"金三银四"临 近，市场对3月"小阳春"的预期持续升温，但这份乐观背后，仍藏着诸多不确定因素。究竟这份数据释 放了哪些关键信号？3月楼市小阳春能否如期而至？本文结合数据细节、政策导向与市场现状，展开全 面解析。 首先，拆解1月70 ...

过年聚会，亲戚聊天三句不离房子。有人问：今年到底能不能买？有人说： 再等等，说不定还要跌。嘴上说着"不关心"，其实心里都在打鼓。 从官方数据到各家机构的判断，2026年的楼市并没有"V型反转"的剧本，而是"继续调整、分化加剧"的 格局。把最近几个月释放的信号，浓缩成4个和普通人关系最大的"消息"，你会发现：房价整体继续承 压，并非空穴来风。 消息一：全国房子仍然"供大于求"，库存压力不小 先看一个很现实的数字：截至2025年末，全国商品房待售面积还有7.66亿平方米，同比反而增长了 1.6%，其中住宅待售面积增长更快。 这意味着，过去一年卖掉的房子很多，但新竣工没卖掉的房子也不少，库存并没有真正消化完。 有机构测算，全国新房库存的去化周期大概在30个月左右，三线城市甚至达到35个月——简单说，就是 按现在的销售速度，要把现有库存卖完，需要两三年时间。 在三四线、远郊、配套一般的地方，这种"卖压"会更明显：挂牌一大堆，看房的人不多，业主只能一轮 轮降价。 供大于求的格局下，指望整体房价大幅上涨，难度很大。更多城市会延续"以价换量"——谁先降价，谁 才有机会成交。 消息二：房企还在"缩量过冬"，新开工和投资继续往 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market in 2025 is experiencing a complex situation, with some believing that the market is recovering while others view it as a temporary response to policy stimuli [1] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - In the first half of 2025, national housing prices continued to adjust, with second-hand housing prices declining and new housing slowing down, while inventory in third and fourth-tier cities remained high [3] - Starting in August, first-tier cities began to subtly implement policy changes, such as Beijing lifting restrictions on the number of properties purchased outside the Fifth Ring Road and reducing the down payment for second homes to 30% [3] - Following these policy changes, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in first-tier cities began to rise, with Shanghai selling 244,000 second-hand homes in 2025, significantly higher than the previous year [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - Despite a slight increase in new home prices in December, the overall trend indicates that developers are offering discounts, and buyers are being more cautious in their purchasing decisions [5] - There is a divide in consumer sentiment, with some opting to buy homes for stability while others choose to wait for potentially lower prices, leading to a "hidden war" between buying and renting [6] - Buyers who purchase homes feel a sense of stability in their lives, while those who wait may find themselves missing out on opportunities as desirable properties become scarce [6][8] Group 3: Market Segmentation and Future Outlook - The market is showing signs of division, with first-tier cities experiencing a recovery due to population inflow, while third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle with oversupply and outmigration [9] - The real estate market is shifting back to its fundamental purpose of providing housing, with valuable properties being those that offer access to resources like jobs, schools, and healthcare [9] - Predictions for 2026 suggest that the market will not see a uniform rise or fall in prices, but rather an increase in segmentation, with home purchases driven by personal needs rather than speculative investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually transitioning from a "cold" to a "warm" state, driven by policy support and market adjustments, although the recovery is not uniform across all segments [3][11]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the need for strong and clear policy measures, stating that policies should meet market expectations and be implemented decisively [3]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development continues to focus on controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and improving quality, indicating a systematic approach to stabilize the market [3]. - Over 60 cities have optimized real estate policies, with first-time home loan interest rates dropping to 3.5%-4%, and some cities even seeing rates in the "2s" [3][4]. Market Data and Trends - In January, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 17,114 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.52% [4]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties was 12,905 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.67% [4]. - The transaction volume in key cities for second-hand homes increased significantly, with a 16% month-on-month rise and a 33% year-on-year increase in 13 major cities [7]. Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - There is a noticeable increase in consumer inquiries about housing, particularly regarding tax incentives for upgrading homes, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][5]. - The demand for quality housing is rising, with properties meeting new standards commanding a premium of 10%-20% in the same location [7]. - The article notes a change in consumer focus towards the quality of housing and community amenities, reflecting a trend towards consumption upgrades [7]. Financial Environment - The monetary environment remains supportive, with M2 continuing to expand and household savings exceeding 160 trillion yuan, alongside a reduction in loan rates [7]. - Developers are expected to resume land acquisitions, emphasizing delivery capabilities and quality in their projects, contrasting with previous market behaviors [7]. Market Outlook - The article suggests that while there is potential for recovery, it is essential to approach the market with caution, focusing on quality properties rather than broad price increases [11][12]. - The upcoming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current upward trend in transactions will continue, particularly after the Spring Festival [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by homeowners with multiple properties in China, highlighting the difficulties in selling homes, rising holding costs, and decreasing long-term demand for housing. Group 1: Selling Challenges - Selling homes has become increasingly difficult, shifting from "can sell anytime" to "may not sell at all" [9] - The inventory of unsold properties remains high, with significant increases in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale in major cities [11] - The price of second-hand homes has been declining for several months, leading to longer transaction times [13] Group 2: Rising Holding Costs - Holding costs for properties are increasing, with expenses such as mortgage payments, property fees, and maintenance becoming burdensome [20] - Rental yields are low, often not covering the costs associated with property ownership, especially for vacant homes [24] - A significant number of homes are vacant, with a vacancy rate exceeding 20%, leading to higher financial risks for homeowners [26] Group 3: Decreasing Long-term Demand - The declining birth rate and aging population are reducing the number of potential homebuyers, impacting overall housing demand [32] - Changing attitudes among young people towards homeownership, with many preferring rental options over purchasing multiple properties [34] - Government policies aimed at providing affordable housing are diverting some demand away from the market for private homes [36]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, transitioning from a phase of rapid growth and speculation to a more stable and sustainable development model, influenced by government policies and economic adjustments [1][6][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Challenges - Since the housing reform in 1998, the average living space per person has increased from less than 7 square meters to nearly 40 square meters, significantly improving living conditions [1]. - The average housing price has surged from 2,000 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the reform to a peak of 11,000 yuan, with first-tier cities experiencing even more dramatic increases, reaching up to 65,000 yuan per square meter [1]. - Despite a decline in transaction volume and prices since last year, housing prices remain high, making homeownership unaffordable for many, with costs in second-tier cities ranging from 1 to 3 million yuan and first-tier cities starting at 6 to 7 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Future Trends and Government Initiatives - The Chinese economy is gradually reducing its reliance on the real estate sector, with government officials emphasizing the need for stable housing market development without using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus [6]. - There is a significant push from local governments to increase the supply of affordable housing, with plans to invest in the construction of 8.7 million units of affordable rental housing by 2025, amounting to a total investment of 3 trillion yuan [8]. - The market is expected to evolve into a tripartite structure consisting of the commodity housing market, rental housing market, and shared ownership housing market, leading to a gradual withdrawal of investment demand from the commodity housing sector [9].