你以为"提前还贷"只是个理财小动作？ 说起中国人买房，大家脑子里第一反应肯定是"背房贷"，几十年按揭，咬牙攒首付，然后盼着哪天房价翻倍，财富自由。 可到了2025年，这一套"财富剧本"突然被现实撕碎，不是大家还不起房贷，而是大家都抢着提前还清！ 四年之间，提前还掉的房贷高达12.8万亿，银行的钱袋子眼看着"瘦身"，而购房者却一点没轻松。 背后这场看不见的资金流动，到底是谁在赢，谁在输？是政策在救市，还是市场在自救？ 以前房贷余额年年涨，买房的人越来越多，银行的生意越做越大。 自2021年末起，全国个人住房贷款余额竟"急转直下"。初始为38.32万亿，至2025年二季度末，已降至37.74万亿。 这四年时间，全国新房销售额加起来有40万亿，按照六成房贷比例，理论上得新增24万亿贷款，再算上二手房交易，净增至少也有28万亿。 可余额不升反降，唯一能解释的办法，就是提前还贷成了大趋势。其实这还不是凭空猜测，数据说话：2019年和2020年，房贷新增7.57万亿，和理论推算的 7.75万亿几乎一模一样。 说明在那会儿，大家都是老老实实按揭还款。 可眼下，提前还贷成了"全国运动"，12.8万亿的规模，已经超过了中国一年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a notification to promote the high-quality development of the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) market, aiming to enhance the service efficiency of multi-level capital markets for the real economy [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The CSRC has established a "1+3+N" framework for the commercial real estate REITs system, which includes one announcement, one notification, two working regulations, and 17 supporting rules from various institutions [1] - The new rules are designed to adaptively optimize the management of newly added commercial real estate types while maintaining strict oversight, reflecting a targeted approach to "classification management and policy implementation" for different REITs sectors [1][2] Group 2: Development Strategies - The notification outlines four key areas for advancing REITs: improving work mechanisms and institutional responsibilities, accelerating market system construction, optimizing review and registration processes, and enhancing comprehensive regulatory mechanisms [2] - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs marks a new phase in China's REITs market, indicating a parallel development of commercial real estate and infrastructure [2] Group 3: Market Impact - The launch of commercial real estate REITs aims to address the structural transformation challenges of the high-debt, high-turnover model in real estate, converting commercial properties into tradable financial products [3] - This initiative is expected to optimize the social financing structure, increase the proportion of direct financing, and provide investors with stable cash flow returns, aligning with the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy [3] Group 4: Future Recommendations - Experts suggest accelerating the legislative process for REITs to clarify product structures, tax neutrality principles, and responsibilities of all parties involved [4] - There is a call to cultivate diversified professional asset management capabilities and to explore flexible yield pricing mechanisms linked to market interest rates, as well as to develop REIT indices and ETFs to improve secondary market liquidity [4]

"十四五" 期间中国房地产市场经历深刻调整，2021 年行业规模见顶后进入深度调整期，政策从强调 "房住不炒" 逐步转向推动市场 "止跌回稳"。五年间新建 商品房销售总面积约 58 亿平米，较 "十三五" 下降 25%，市场分化加剧，一二线城市表现出较强韧性，三四线城市整体承压，改善性需求逐步成为市场主 导，二手房交易量占比超 40%。企业格局方面，规模房企数量持续萎缩，77 家房企出现债务违约，央国企市场份额显著提升，行业集中度阶段性回落。 FREE RELL 117 "十五五" 时期房地产发展环境迎来新变化，经济锚定 2035 年人均 GDP 达到中等发达国家水平目标，扩内需成为核心任务，房地产仍将发挥支柱产业作 用。城镇化迈向 "提质" 新阶段，区域发展聚焦京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区等核心城市群与都市圈，常住人口城镇化率预计年均提升 0.7 个百分点。政 策层面，短期仍将聚焦 "止跌回稳"，中长期锚定高质量发展，加快构建房地产发展新模式。 市场预判方面，"十五五" 期间房地产供需规模将逐步筑底企稳，预计 2026-2030 年新建住宅年均销售面积保持在 7-8 亿平方米。需求结构上，新增城镇人口 带来 ...

现在关于房子的舆论，特别两极分化。 一类人天天焦虑： "现在不买，5年后更买不起，只能眼睁睁看着孩子没学区、自己没窝。" 另一类人天天盼着： "再等等，过几年房价崩盘，随便挑，随便选，白菜价随便捡。" 如果你真信了这两头的说法，大概率是要吃亏的。 内行人看未来5年的楼市，其实共识挺清楚： ——既不会全国继续"普涨"，也不会全国一起"崩盘"， ——真正拉开差距的，是城市能级、板块质量，和你自己的需求。 未来5年楼市的三个关键词 不管你现在在不在考虑买房，先记住这三个关键词，基本就能把大方向抓对。 1）总量放缓 研究机构测算，2024到2030年，全国每年新增住房需求大概在9~10亿平米左右，比过去"大开发时代"要 低不少。 "房住不炒"已经不是口号，而是长期政策基调； 保障房、租赁市场、房地产税等长效机制，都会慢慢把房子的"金融属性"打下来，让住房回归"住"的属 性。 所以，问"5年后房子是买不起还是随便挑"，本质上问的是： 那种"全国到处缺房子、闭眼买都涨"的时代，基本结束了。 2）结构分化 一线城市、强二线城市，和三四线、县城，走势完全不是一个节奏； 同一个城市里面，核心区、好学区、地铁口，和远郊新区、产业 ...

更多政策解读、城市月报、房企研究报告 ..... 中指云 就在 Q "十五五"中国房地产市场趋势展望 t 2 "十五五" 中国房地产 市场趋势展望 中指研究院 中国房地产指数系统 "十五五"中国房地产市场趋势展望 2025 年 12 月 11 日 目录 | 摘要 … | | --- | | 第一部分:"十四五"中国房地产市场形势总结… | | （一）政策环境: 从强调"房住不炒"到推动市场"止跌回稳" . | | (二)市场特征:2021年行业规模见顶,随后进入深度调整期,市场分化加剧……… 16 | | （三）企业格局:规模房企数量持续萎缩,央国企市场份额提升 ……………………………………… 22 | | 第二部分："十五五"中国房地产市场趋势展望 | | （一）发展环境:科技创新与内需驱动经济稳增长,房地产聚焦高质量发展 | | 1. 经济增长锚定 2035年人均 GDP 达到中等发达国家水平,扩内需是核心 | | 2. 城镇化迈向"提质"新阶段,区域发展聚焦核心城市群与都市圈 | | 3. 房地产政策短期聚焦"止跌回稳"目标,中长期锚定高质量发展 | | (二)市场预判:未来五年预计房地产供需规模逐步筑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's real estate market is experiencing a significant policy adjustment aimed at stimulating consumption and addressing housing needs, particularly for non-local residents and families with multiple children [3][5][42]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy, effective immediately, focuses on key areas such as purchase restrictions, credit, and housing provident fund adjustments [3][5]. - The requirement for non-local families to purchase homes within the Fifth Ring has been reduced from three years of social security or tax payments to two years, and outside the Fifth Ring, it has been further relaxed to one year [7][9]. - Families with two or more children are now allowed to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring, addressing their housing needs [10][12]. Financial Implications - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, implementing a unified mortgage interest rate, which is currently around 3.2% [14]. - The minimum down payment for second homes using the housing provident fund has been reduced from 30% to 25%, easing the financial burden on homebuyers [14][16]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in land auction processes aims to lower the barriers for companies to acquire land, potentially increasing new housing supply [16]. - Compared to other cities, Beijing's policy changes are not the most aggressive, but they serve as a significant signal for national market trends [20][22]. Broader Context - The adjustments reflect a broader trend of easing restrictions in major cities, with other cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen already implementing more lenient policies [20][26]. - The policy changes are designed to balance the local market with surrounding areas, avoiding excessive pressure on neighboring cities [28]. Future Outlook - The overall impact of these policy changes on the housing market remains uncertain, as many potential buyers are still hesitant due to concerns about falling prices and income stability [30][32]. - The long-term goal of these adjustments is to stabilize housing prices and ensure that the real estate market serves the public's housing needs effectively [40][42].

大家好，在进入正文之前，给大家做一个推荐。 我的一个设计师好友夏夏，从LXD离职后，经历过设计创业的失败，后同小伙伴一起经营了一些自媒体账号，分享全球优秀设计工作室的作品。良心干 货，超前理念，你想看的好设计全都有❗ 如果你也是设计师，想邀请你一起关注一下，这里只有好设计，真的超有料❗ ▼ 计~ 就在昨天，我陪着朋友去看房，遇到了一位从事房产中介工作长达20年的老陈，在饭后大家都多喝了两杯的情况下，老陈拍着我的肩膀说道："兄弟，就 当下这样的行情，我跟你讲的这7个字，价值能达到20万！"。 曾经那种只要闭眼买房就可赚到钱的时代，已然彻底远去，不会再回来了，现如今，倘若出现一步踏错的情况，那么很有可能会面临长达五年甚至十年的 艰难挣扎。 这里面蕴含着七个字，即"买旧、买大、不买三"，千万不要产生误解，接下来听我逐步为你详细剖析拆解。 一、为何要"买旧"？买的不是破旧，而是"核心价值" 3. 品质直观可感 期房存在的最大风险便是如同"开盲盒"一般，有关期房维权的新闻屡见不鲜，反观二手房，墙体是否存在裂缝、物业是否尽责、邻居素质高低、下雨天车 库会不会漏水等等，每一处细节都可亲自去勘察了解，彻底摆脱"交付即维权"这 ...

楼市发展，牵动着万千家庭的心弦，它在市场经济中占据举足轻重的地位。对于普通百姓而言，拥有一个稳定的家，远胜于四处漂泊的租房生活。能否实现 安居梦想，很大程度上取决于个人的经济实力。 展望2026年，楼市将走向何方？许多人或许感到迷茫。然而，商业巨擘如马云，早在多年前就对房地产行业提出了发人深省的预言，诸如"房价如葱"等观 点，尽管带有夸张和警示的意味，但其核心在于预见市场终将回归理性，凸显居住的本质属性。 综合考量当前的政策导向、经济形势以及人口结构等宏观因素，2026年前后，中国房地产行业极有可能迎来一场深刻而具有结构性的变革。 以下基于现有信息与发展趋势，对可能出现的四大转折方向进行深入剖析： 一、政策逻辑的根本性转变：从"经济引擎"转向"民生保障" 转折核心： 房地产的角色将彻底转变，不再是拉动经济增长的主要工具，而是回归其本源，成为保障民生和社会稳定的基础性行业。 具体表现： "市场归市场，保障归保障"的双轨制加速构建： 商品房市场将更大程度地接受市场规律的调节，房价的涨跌波动将成为常态。与此同时，政府将大力推进 保障性住房建设、城中村改造以及"平急两用"公共基础设施建设，旨在构筑一张覆盖广大工薪阶层 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on "stabilizing the real estate market" by the central government signals a significant shift in policy direction, moving from emergency measures to a long-term recovery plan for the real estate sector [1][3]. Policy Shift - The focus has shifted from "rescue" and "risk prevention" to "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating a more strategic approach to managing the real estate market [3]. - "Controlling increments" means stricter regulations on new construction, especially in areas with excess housing supply [3]. - The new approach encourages the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, effectively addressing unsold inventory while increasing the supply of social housing [3]. - The emphasis on "optimizing supply" suggests a future focus on building quality housing that meets actual demand [3]. Market Conditions - The most dangerous phase for the real estate market has passed, with over 5.6 trillion yuan in funding provided to reliable developers, helping to stabilize the market [5]. - Market differentiation is emerging, with some cities showing signs of recovery while others remain stagnant [5]. Implications for Buyers - Current conditions present a "policy dividend window," where the cost of purchasing a home is at historical lows, with mortgage rates for first-time buyers dropping to the 3% range [7]. - Various incentives, such as subsidies for multi-child families and tax reductions for home purchases, are available to ease financial burdens [8]. - Buyers are advised to prioritize safety and liquidity when purchasing homes, focusing on properties from developers on the "white list" and those with strong resale potential [8]. Recommendations for Sellers - Sellers should consider offloading properties in third- and fourth-tier cities with weak local economies, as these areas face declining prices and high inventory [11]. - Properties that are old, small, or located in less desirable areas should also be considered for sale, as they may struggle to attract buyers [13]. - It is recommended to retain primary residences and high-quality properties in core urban areas, as these assets are likely to maintain their value over time [13][15]. Market Dynamics - The future market will likely see 90% of ordinary properties stagnating or declining in value, while only 10% of high-quality properties will retain their worth [15]. - Decision-making should be tailored to specific cities, neighborhoods, and individual properties, moving away from a one-size-fits-all mentality [16].

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference has outlined a clear roadmap for the real estate market in 2026, emphasizing the need to stabilize the market and manage risks associated with the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Stabilization Strategies - The primary task for the real estate market in 2026 is to stabilize it, which is framed within the context of risk management. This marks the fourth consecutive year that this focus has been highlighted, indicating a strong commitment to both risk prevention and market stability [3]. - The conference proposed three key strategies: controlling new construction, reducing inventory, and improving supply quality. This means that the government will moderate the pace of new developments, focus on selling existing properties, and encourage the construction of high-quality homes that meet consumer needs [3]. Group 2: Policy Bottom Lines - There are several critical bottom lines that must be maintained in 2026: - Housing prices must not experience a "cliff-like" drop, as the core goal is to stabilize the market and prevent panic-induced declines [5]. - Market transactions should not become "frozen," ensuring that there is basic liquidity in the market to avoid extreme scenarios of zero transactions in certain areas [5]. - Key real estate companies must not face a "domino effect" of defaults, as this could lead to a broader credit crisis within the industry [6]. Group 3: Financial Support and Local Policies - A comprehensive set of financial support measures is expected, including maintaining low down payment ratios and mortgage rates, with potential for further reductions. Additionally, reforms to the housing provident fund system are anticipated to broaden coverage and increase flexibility for users [8]. - Local governments are encouraged to implement targeted policies, such as acquiring existing properties for affordable housing, which can help reduce inventory while increasing the supply of affordable homes. Some regions are already offering home purchase subsidies, particularly for families with multiple children [8]. Group 4: Implications for Buyers and Investors - The overarching policy logic aims to balance housing demand and supply while preventing systemic risks. For first-time buyers or those looking to upgrade, the lowered barriers to entry and potential subsidies present a favorable environment for purchasing homes [11]. - For existing homeowners, especially those with multiple properties, it is crucial to recognize that the era of widespread price increases has ended, and market differentiation is expected to become more pronounced [11]. - High-leverage investors should remain cautious, as income instability could lead to significant repayment pressures [11]. Group 5: Future Market Dynamics - The 2026 real estate market will focus on "stability" and "differentiation," with a shift away from one-size-fits-all policies towards more localized strategies [12].