本报记者 刘 琪 韩 昱 2026年已经启幕，中国经济站在了新的发展起点上。今年我国经济将呈现怎样的走势？财政政策、 货币政策又将如何为经济增长保驾护航？《证券日报》记者就此采访了多位首席经济学家，进行深入解 读。 经济增长重在结构性调整 2025年我国国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为2026年经济发展奠定了坚实基础。 王青表示，结构性政策方面，着眼于做好金融"五篇大文章"，引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、制 造业转型升级、绿色发展、小微企业，以及促消费、稳外贸等国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节，2026年中 国人民银行将优化用好各类结构性货币政策工具，总体上是"加量降价"，即结构性货币政策工具额度总 2025年12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布中国采购经理指数 （PMI）显示，2025年12月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别 为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点、0.7个百分点和1.0个百分点，三大指数均升至扩张 区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，考虑到先行指标的良好表现，预计2025 ...

政策持续激活内需增长动力 近期召开的中央经济工作会议指出，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策""要继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策"。 2026年已经启幕，中国经济站在了新的发展起点上。今年我国经济将呈现怎样的走势？财政政策、货币 政策又将如何为经济增长保驾护航？《证券日报》记者就此采访了多位首席经济学家，进行深入解读。 经济增长重在结构性调整 2025年我国国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为2026年经济发展奠定了坚实基础。 2025年12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布中国采购经理指数（PMI） 显示，2025年12月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点、0.7个百分点和1.0个百分点，三大指数均升至扩张区 间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，考虑到先行指标的良好表现，预计2025年全年GDP增速有望在5.1% 左右，顺利完成年度任务。同时，2025年12月份以来，宏观政策统筹兼顾短期稳增长目标与长期动能培 育，构建起中央统筹部署、部委协同推进、地方精准落地 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]

Economic Situation - The economic situation is characterized by persistent challenges, but the overall tone is becoming more positive. The external environment is expected to stabilize marginally, while domestic supply-demand imbalances are highlighted as a significant issue [2][10]. - The meeting emphasizes the need to address "development and transformation" issues, indicating that many challenges can be resolved through concerted efforts [10]. Five Musts - The meeting outlines "Five Musts" to enhance economic potential, focusing on internal capacity building to respond to external challenges and the importance of policy support alongside reform innovation [2][18]. - Key strategies include ensuring effective market regulation while promoting investment in both physical and human capital [19]. 2025 Growth Target - The growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5% for both nominal and real GDP, reflecting a pragmatic approach to align with long-term goals and current economic conditions [3][21]. - The transition of growth drivers is expected, with the "three new economies" projected to surpass the real estate sector historically [21]. Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy framework is shifting from "promoting stability through growth" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a focus on structural optimization rather than mere expansion [4][26]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on improving the efficiency of spending rather than just increasing the scale [30][31]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential rate cuts and targeted support for key sectors [36][40]. Key Tasks - The emphasis on domestic demand is paramount, with strategies to boost consumption and stabilize investment growth projected at 2-3% for 2026 [5][46]. - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with plans to strengthen the integration of education, technology, and talent development [6][50]. - Reforms will focus on eliminating barriers to development, enhancing market dynamics, and improving the business environment [7][57]. Real Estate Market - The policy focus is shifting towards stabilizing the real estate market, moving from demand stimulation to a balanced supply-demand approach [8][63].

Core Viewpoint - The importance of the real estate sector as a key driver of China's economy is increasing due to the impacts of trade and tariff wars, with a call for revitalization of the sector as a strategic response to external pressures [1][26]. Group 1: Real Estate's Economic Role - The central government has indicated significant development potential in the real estate market, emphasizing the need for stable growth in the sector during recent high-level meetings [3]. - In Q1 2023, the average price of new commercial housing in China was approximately 9,510 yuan per square meter, making home ownership a long-term financial commitment for average earners [5]. - Real estate contributes nearly 10% to national tax revenue, with a significant drop in land value tax by 17.4% year-on-year in Q1, highlighting the sector's critical role in stabilizing fiscal income [7]. Group 2: Employment and Financial Stability - The construction industry is a major employer for migrant workers, with around 42.86 million relying on real estate jobs, underscoring the sector's importance for job security [9]. - Real estate loans are a primary source of profit for the financial sector, and instability in housing prices could lead to widespread financial risks, affecting overall financial security [11]. Group 3: New National Standards - The implementation of the new national standard for residential projects starting May 1 aims to enhance safety, living space, and user-friendly designs in new housing [14][19]. - The new regulations include increased safety standards, such as mandatory smoke detectors in each unit, and improved living conditions with minimum height requirements for residential spaces [16][17]. Group 4: Considerations for Homebuyers - Homebuyers are advised to assess their mortgage repayment capabilities carefully, as financial instability could lead to severe consequences [20]. - The principle of "housing is for living, not for speculation" remains crucial, discouraging speculative investments in the real estate market [24]. - Caution is advised against purchasing properties in less developed areas, often referred to as "internet celebrity housing," which may lack essential services and infrastructure [24].