近期，有位在三线城市购房的亲友向我咨询：他刚花120万买的房子，五年后到底能值多少钱？说实 话，这个问题看似简单，背后却牵扯到经济趋势、城市发展、政策调控等多重因素。为了给出相对客观 的参考，我特地请教了几位在房地产行业深耕多年的朋友，他们从不同角度给出了自己的判断。今天， 我就把这些信息整理出来，用更贴近现实的角度，和大家聊聊房子未来价值的那些事儿。 一、市场整体态势：分化成为关键词 从全国范围看，房地产市场早已告别"普涨"时代。根据2024年统计部门发布的数据，房价整体呈现稳中 有降的态势，但不同能级的城市之间差异显著。一线和重点二线城市因资源集聚、人口流入，房价支撑 力较强，部分区域甚至保持温和上涨；而多数三、四线城市则面临需求放缓、库存压力等问题，房价出 现不同程度回调。 这种分化格局意味着，同样120万的房子，放在不同城市，五年后的命运可能天差地别。正如一位在三 线城市做了近二十年中介的朋友所说："过去闭眼买房都能赚，现在得睁大眼睛挑。人口往外走、房子 不好卖，已是不少中小城市的常态。" 二、业内观点：理性看待增值空间 几位行业人士虽然视角不同，但普遍认同一个观点：房地产高速增值阶段已基本结束，未来 ...

其二，"租购并举"格局逐步形成。 中新社北京12月11日电 (记者 庞无忌)经历4年多的调整和再平衡，中国房地产市场已在多个领域显现重 大变化。行业专家指出，楼市正自发调整以适应高质量发展新阶段，其供求结构、交易格局与企业运行 模式等均在积极转型。 其一，交易总量逐步趋稳。 房地产交易中，二手房正占据越来越大的份额。重庆大学副校长刘贵文指出，传统以新房销售为主的增 量交易正走向新房和二手房并举，并进一步迈向以二手房交易为主的成熟市场格局。 数据显示，今年1至11月，全国二手房交易网签面积在房屋交易总量中的占比升至45%。从国际经验 看，进入城镇化后期，以存量交易为主是房地产市场发展的普遍规律。 一二线热点城市已率先进入存量时代。据中指研究院统计，今年1至11月，四个一线城市二手房成交套 数占总成交量的比重均已超六成，其中北京二手房成交量占比超八成。除一线城市外，刘贵文表示，重 庆、成都、杭州、南京等重点二线城市的二手住房成交比例也已超过新房。二手房市场对新房市场 的"替代效应"日益明显。 在此背景下，分析房地产市场走势，需将新房与二手房的总供给与总需求纳入同一分析框架。数据显 示，2025年前三季度，重点30 ...

房地产市场正逐步走向增量和存量并重阶段。当前房地产市场处于新旧模式转换时期，转型需要一定时 间。房地产市场虽有所波动，但总体而言，稳楼市政策成效仍在继续显现。全面客观看待当前房地产市 场变化，应注意把握以下内容。 房地产市场分化愈加明显，一些大中城市交易活跃。数据显示，今年1月至11月，厦门、贵阳、武汉、 沈阳、南昌、深圳、南宁、昆明、石家庄、上海等城市一二手房交易总量同比增长。 近年来，二手房交易面积占比逐步提高，仅看到新房交易规模下降就认为房地产市场一蹶不振是十分片 面的。新房有新房的吸引力，二手房也有"所见即所得"、拎包即可入住等优势。 房价降幅收窄。10月份，70个大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格降幅与2024年同期相比，分别收窄 3.6个和3.5个百分点。今年10月份，上海、杭州、合肥、成都等7个城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比上 涨。 理性看待当前开发投资下降。我国房地产市场已进入供需基本平衡阶段。与过去快速发展阶段相比，当 前新建商品住宅供给减少，这既是各地落实严控增量的正向反应，也是市场自发调整的结果。房地产发 展将持续严控增量、优化存量、提高质量。 保交房攻坚战扎实推进，房地产融资"白名单"制 ...

Core Insights - The urbanization process in China is transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement, leading to profound changes in resource allocation logic, which significantly impacts urban development [1] - Major cities like Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu are experiencing population growth, each surpassing 20 million residents, showcasing their robust development vitality and strong attraction [3][5] - The competitive advantage of these mega cities is not solely based on scale but is supported by a multi-dimensional framework including industrial ecology, public services, and development space [5][7] Urban Development Dynamics - Core cities and key urban clusters are increasingly demonstrating agglomeration effects, forming a new ecosystem of urban development characterized by clear hierarchies and collaborative competition [3] - The Pearl River Delta cities attract a large influx of population due to their complete industrial clusters, becoming significant gathering places for individuals seeking opportunities [3][9] - The employment market in these mega cities is diverse and comprehensive, providing high-end job opportunities and platforms for skilled talent [7] Economic and Industrial Insights - Chongqing and Chengdu are emerging as core destinations for population inflow in the western region, leveraging their unique geographical advantages and complementary industrial layouts [7][9] - The Pearl River Delta cities have established a robust industrial matrix covering high-tech, trade logistics, and various manufacturing sectors, fostering a collaborative and complementary industrial ecosystem [9][11] - Shenzhen has become a hub for top tech talent, driven by leading companies like Huawei and Tencent, which have created a complete high-tech industrial chain [11] Emerging City Competitiveness - New first-tier cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are rising strongly, injecting new vitality into the urban competition landscape by balancing industrial upgrades and living quality [13][15] - The real estate market is witnessing structural differentiation, with cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu stabilizing prices and improving market conditions driven by demand for better living conditions [17] - The shift in young people's city selection logic is moving towards rational decision-making based on industrial depth, living costs, and public services [19][21] Future Urban Trends - The construction of transportation networks, such as the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed rail, is enhancing connectivity and supporting a dual-core development model [21] - The urbanization process in China is entering a high-quality development phase, with a clear trend of population and capital concentrating in core cities and urban clusters [23][25] - Sustainable urban development relies on optimizing living costs, enhancing public service levels, and establishing differentiated competitive advantages [25][26]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant turnaround in the Tongzhou real estate market due to policy relaxations and returning demand, marking a "golden window period" for the area [2][26] - A new policy implemented on August 8 allows unlimited home purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road, with increased support for public housing loans, leading to a 68% week-on-week increase in new home subscriptions [2][26] - The complete removal of the "dual limit" policy by September 30, 2024, has unified purchasing conditions across the city, attracting buyers from areas like Chaoyang back to Tongzhou [2][26] Market Dynamics - In 2025, Tongzhou has seen a cumulative supply of over 1,800 new residential units, with 1,327 units sold, resulting in a 74% absorption rate, reflecting strong market confidence [2][26] - The leading projects in sales include Zhongjian · Yunhe Jiuyuan with 649 units sold, followed by other notable developments, indicating a competitive market landscape [5][11] - The market is experiencing a "polarization" effect, where some projects like招商云璟揽阅 are performing exceptionally well, while others like花语璟云 are struggling to sell, highlighting the importance of product quality [8][10] Pricing Strategies - There is a stark contrast in pricing strategies among different projects, with some developers reducing prices to accelerate sales while others maintain higher price points, indicating a shift towards a "product-driven" market [10][11] - The average price in the core area remains high, with some projects priced above 70,000 yuan per square meter, while others in the outskirts are below 20,000 yuan per square meter, creating a significant price gap [11][12] Future Outlook - The article provides three key recommendations for potential buyers: understanding personal needs, focusing on product details, and leveraging favorable policy conditions, as the current environment may not last [12] - The ongoing investment in Tongzhou as a city sub-center, with substantial annual investments, is expected to continue driving demand and shaping the market landscape [11][12]

Core Insights - The recent land supply in Beijing has attracted significant attention, particularly with the competitive bidding for key plots, such as the East Third Ring core area, where a private enterprise won with a premium of 18.21% [1] - The market in Tongzhou has seen a surge in new housing supply and notable price differentiation, indicating the importance of a rigorous pricing strategy for companies to stand out in a competitive environment [1] Group 1: Land Acquisition Details - The land parcel in question, located in Tongzhou, covers an area of 24,700 square meters with a building area of 54,400 square meters, featuring a floor area ratio of 2.2 and a maximum building height of 45 meters [2] - China Overseas Land & Investment acquired the Jiukeshu 6017 plot for 1.248 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 0.97% and a transaction floor price of approximately 22,900 yuan per square meter [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The new housing market in Tongzhou has shown significant differentiation this year, with faster sales of affordable housing products amid shrinking customer budgets [4] - Projects like Chaotang Lanyue have achieved a sales rate of 51% with an average transaction price of approximately 58,000 yuan per square meter, indicating strong demand for smaller units [3][4] - Conversely, other projects such as China Railway Construction's Huayu Jingyun have faced slower sales, highlighting the critical need for precise positioning and reasonable pricing strategies in the current market [5] Group 3: Strategic Insights for Developers - For developers, a careful pricing strategy is essential for success in the competitive market, as evidenced by the successful pricing approach of Chaotang Lanyue [6] - The new Jiukeshu plot offers a new option for buyers seeking properties near transit lines, which could attract demand from both local residents and those looking to move from the CBD [6]

还记得2017年马云那句"未来房子如葱"的预言吗？ 当年，这句话一石激起千层浪，有人拍手叫好，有人嗤之以鼻。 几年过去，房价真的像葱一样了吗？其实，这个问题没有一个简单的"是"或者"否"。 但可以肯定的是，到了2026年，中国房地产市场确实要迎来一场深刻转型。 三大转变正在路上，普涨普跌的"黄金时代"已成过去，市场逻辑、供给体系、政策取向都在悄然重构。 过去20年，房地产市场有一条"金科玉律"：只要买在上涨周期，闭着眼都能赚钱。 无论一线、二线甚至三四线，房价都像坐火箭一样往上冲。可这种"普涨红利"已经走向终点，2026年楼市分化已是大势所趋。 区域分化、城市分化、板块分化，三重分化像浪潮一样接踵而至，谁"躺赚"、谁"躺平"，命运天差地别。 三四线和一些收缩型城市，已经成了"房价如葱"的主战场。 2025年，三四线城市人口净流出高达312万人。人口流失、产业支撑薄弱、库存高企，房价中位数累计下跌18%。 极端一点的，比如黑龙江鹤岗、内蒙古鄂尔多斯，甚至出现了单价不足千元、总价不到五万块的房子，妥妥的"白菜价"。 2026年，这些城市的房子将越来越回归居住本质，投资属性被大大削弱。 反观一线和强二线核心城市，资 ...

Core Insights - The recent land auction in Tongzhou District, Beijing, saw China Overseas Land & Investment acquire the FZX-0302-6017 plot for 1.248 billion yuan, with a floor price of approximately 22,900 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 0.97% [1][2] Group 1: Land Auction Details - The land area of the Jiukeshu South plot is approximately 2.47 hectares, with a planned construction area of about 54,400 square meters and a plot ratio of 2.2, with height limits of 45 meters (60 meters in some areas) [1][2] - The auction documents specify requirements for energy stations, cable TV rooms, and other infrastructure, emphasizing the need for a unified design that incorporates open spaces and greenery [1][2] Group 2: Urban Design and Architectural Requirements - The design guidelines encourage modern architectural styles, with a focus on creating a visually appealing urban landscape, including staggered building heights and courtyard layouts [2] - The plot's proximity to the subway and established living amenities enhances its attractiveness for residential development [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - Tongzhou has successfully auctioned three residential plots this year, with significant competition leading to high premium rates of 16.28% and 21.94% for other plots [3] - New housing projects in the area show a marked performance disparity, with some achieving over 50% sales rates since launch, while others face challenges despite lower plot ratios [3] Group 4: Developer Strategies - Developers are advised to adopt rigorous pricing strategies to stand out in a competitive market, leveraging the plot's transit accessibility and existing amenities to attract buyers [4] - The current market dynamics favor buyers, making it crucial for developers to balance reasonable profit margins with rapid sales to gain market acceptance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in Shenzhen is experiencing a resurgence with several high-end projects launching, potentially boosting market activity [1][4]. Group 1: Project Launches and Pricing - The recent launch of the Houhai Dongxi Garden project includes 348 residential units with an average pre-sale price of approximately 168,000 yuan per square meter, with one unit priced at over 35 million yuan per square meter, totaling more than 370 million yuan [3]. - The land for this project was auctioned at a starting price of 12.65 billion yuan, with the final bid reaching 18.512 billion yuan, indicating a significant premium of about 46.32% [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Dynamics - The luxury market is seeing a shift in focus from price discrepancies between new and second-hand homes to the quality and uniqueness of the products offered [4]. - High-end properties are expected to maintain strong demand due to their perceived value among high-net-worth individuals, particularly in prime locations [4]. - The luxury market is characterized by a clear division between high-end properties, which are resilient in price, and ordinary residential properties, which are subject to greater price fluctuations [7]. Group 3: Broader Market Insights - Recent data indicates that the luxury market in major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou is thriving, with record sales and significant year-on-year increases in high-value transactions [6]. - The overall real estate market is experiencing structural price increases in new homes, particularly in core cities, although the second-hand market is seeing a decline [8].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in Shenzhen is experiencing a surge in activity, with several high-end projects launching at the end of the year, potentially boosting market heat [1]. Group 1: Project Highlights - The most expensive unit in Shenzhen is priced over 300 million yuan, with the recent launch of the Shenzhen Bay Luanxi project featuring 348 residential units, with an average pre-sale price of approximately 168,000 yuan per square meter [2]. - The land for the Shenzhen Bay Luanxi project was auctioned at a starting price of 12.65 billion yuan, ultimately sold for 18.512 billion yuan, indicating a significant premium and competitive bidding [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The luxury market's performance is increasingly dependent on the quality of the products rather than the previous "price inversion" phenomenon seen in the market, with high-net-worth individuals focusing on the scarcity and value of prime luxury properties [3]. - The luxury market in first-tier cities remains active, with notable sales records, such as the Guangzhou Poly Yueshi Bay achieving over 10.6 billion yuan in a single day [4]. - The market is expected to see more high-end residential projects entering the market, driven by policies promoting low-density land and the removal of price restrictions [4]. Group 3: Price Trends - Recent data indicates a structural increase in new home prices in major cities, although the overall market remains subdued, with second-hand home prices experiencing a more significant decline [5]. - The upcoming performance of real estate companies is anticipated to be supported by increased supply in core cities as they enter a year-end performance push [5].