聚焦政策方向：降息、收储和城市更新。 2026 年行业主要压力来自投资增速仍存压力，不排除对经济构成拖累。政策端能否有序推动降息和收储是对行业自 身投资增速不足的有效弥补。展望 2026 年，将继续重点关注降息、收储、城市更新落地进程。后续需要对以上数据保持密切跟踪。 风险提示。 1 ）市场环境偏冷，到位资金下行，开发商投资意愿难有起色。 2 ）二三线城市库存问题仍然严重，行业修复将呈现分化形态。 3 ）专项债收储 落地不及预期。 报告来源 报告导读： 行业供给缩量提质，新旧动能形成合力推动市场触底回暖。基于以上判断，我 们认为 2026 年重点城市销售有望率先寻找均衡点。长尾城市市场拖累依旧，但幅度收 窄。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 核心销售趋于均衡，投资开发仍需助力；报告日期：2026.01.29；报告作者： 涂力磊（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040101 谢皓宇（分析师），登记编号：S0880518010002 陈昭颖（分析师），登记编号：S0880525100002 我们认为当前 AH 房地产板块总市值与行业在经济中所处地位不匹配。 重要提醒 2025 年 ...

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, China's economic and social development goals are expected to be achieved, with positive changes observed in the real estate market, including a reduction in unsold housing inventory [1] - The overall trend in the real estate market is stabilizing, despite some fluctuations in investment and sales figures, indicating a potential recovery [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 2025, the total real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, with new housing sales area at 88,101 million square meters [2] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 3,259 million square meters compared to the beginning of the year, indicating effective inventory reduction measures [1][2] - In November 2025, the unsold housing inventory decreased by approximately 3 million square meters from October, reflecting the effectiveness of supply-side and demand-side policies [2] Group 2: Policy Measures - Various local governments have implemented effective measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as easing purchase conditions for non-local families in Beijing [4] - Qingdao City offers substantial housing subsidies for graduate students to attract talent, with subsidies of 300,000 yuan for PhD holders and 200,000 yuan for master's degree holders [4] - Hangzhou initiated a "housing + consumption voucher" subsidy program, leading to increased visitor and transaction volumes in related projects [4] Group 3: Transition and Development - The real estate sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with 38 cities promoting the self-renewal of old housing and 42 cities piloting safety management for housing [7] - In 2025, 2.71 million urban old residential units were renovated, with an investment of 1,332 billion yuan, indicating a focus on urban renewal and quality improvement [7] - The industry is encouraged to align housing supply with population movement and industrial development to meet diverse housing needs [8]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, particularly the impact of policies and market dynamics on the sector's performance and future outlook [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The issuance of real estate REITs by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to significantly change the real estate industry by improving liquidity, reducing financing costs (expected at 3.6%), and re-evaluating land assets [1][5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, requiring state-owned enterprises to avoid large-scale losses and high debt levels, with real estate investment growth expected to align with GDP growth (projected at least 4.5%) [1][6][7]. - The secondary market is anticipated to focus on fundamentals in March and April, with a potential stabilization in the second half of the year, particularly for leading companies and core cities [1][8]. - Despite a general pessimism in the real estate sector, the disclosure of risk performance has been thorough, leading to a valuation recovery and an upward trend in the overall market index [1][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - The real estate sector's stock performance has been in line with expectations, with stock prices typically leading transaction volumes, which in turn precede property prices [3]. - The property sector's dividend and special dividend rates remain strong, with an expected rise in CPI to around 1.5%, enhancing price stability and service trade elasticity for property companies [3][11]. - Companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and high-quality development, such as China Resources, Poly, and China Overseas, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [10]. - The potential for companies like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia to show resilience in the second quarter is noted, especially if policy expectations are realized [12]. - The focus on internal renovations rather than just external facade improvements is emphasized as a more certain path for enhancing living experiences and driving industry growth [14]. Conclusion - The real estate industry is at a pivotal moment, with policy changes and market dynamics creating both challenges and opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that align with high-quality development goals and those that can leverage the benefits of REITs to improve their financial positions.

2025年，中国经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现。在此过程中，房地产市场展现出一些积极变化。国 家统计局数据显示，截至2025年末，商品房待售面积76632万平方米，较年初减少3259万平方米。住房 城乡建设部表示，中国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间，人民群众对高品质 住房充满期待，房地产高质量发展仍有较大潜力。 交易总规模趋稳 2025年，全国房地产开发投资82788亿元，新建商品房销售面积88101万平方米。 如何看待房地产的年度数据？清华大学房地产研究中心主任吴璟认为，从2025年全年来看，全国层面房 地产开发投资、新建商品房销售等指标同比仍有下降，部分城市房地产市场在二季度后也出现一定反 复。但这些波动和反复并未改变房地产市场趋稳的整体态势，其中一些积极信号尤其值得关注。 比如，交易总规模趋稳。将新房市场与二手房市场合并观察，无论全国还是主要城市，全年合计销售规 模已明显趋稳，部分主要城市甚至同比小幅增长。从房地产市场发展的规律看，销售规模变化通常领先 于价格，是一个重要的前导信号。 不久前，北京市相关部门印发通知，进一步放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，并明确多子女家庭可在五环内多 买一 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

1月23日，" 2026居民端财富管理新趋势——国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛"在上海举办， 论坛吸引逾百位机构投资者参与。 上海秩汇科技有限公司创 始人 徐 海宁、 浦发银行财富管理部 金总、 冰山指数创始人 李彦国分别就 居民财富管理新趋势、2026年房价趋势 等议题带来精彩演讲。国泰海通非银、银 行、地产团队带来最新研究观点分享。以下为部分嘉宾的观点集锦： 2026房价矛在哪里？ 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制造组长、房地产首席分析师、中小市值与创新股权联席首席分析师 十四五和十五五期间，党中央对地产行业发展要求，房地产行业总量所处阶段存在明显差异。房地产行业高质量发展要求的提出，从防风险、提品质、 促转型等多维度为行业提供纲领性指引。我们认为未来五年行业将步入提质增效发展新阶段，看好行业迈入格局和盈利稳定，蓝筹基本面持续优化阶 段。 我们认为，短期开发板块延续需求端不适应供需关系的限制政策继续松绑，与此同时叠加信贷支持。开发板块长期落实以需求定供给的大方针。土地供 给以人定房，保障性住房确保民生兜底，租赁市场推动机构化转型升级。房屋品质升级为核心任务，新建设立好房标准，改造推进四好建 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive shift in policies aimed at improving and stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for further policy changes that could create investment opportunities in the sector [3][41] - The report tracks the transaction volume of new and second-hand homes across 15 cities, noting a week-on-week increase in transaction area but a year-on-year decline [4] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to supporting urban renewal initiatives and promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total transaction area for new and second-hand homes in 15 cities reached 3.081 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 6.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [4] - Cumulative transaction area for January shows a month-on-month decline of 11.6% and a year-on-year decline of 22.7% [4] Policy Developments - On January 20, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to further support urban renewal actions [4] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development indicated a focus on high-quality development in the real estate sector, aiming to stabilize the market and enhance housing supply [4] Company Announcements - Poly Development expects a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 79.49% year-on-year [4] - China State Construction Development anticipates a net loss of between 284 million and 423 million yuan for 2025 [4] - Vanke A has withdrawn applications for three real estate investment trust fund projects [4]

据国家统计局数据，国内70个城市在2025年12月的新建商品房住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅已经连续数月维持在 相近水平，一线城市环比下降0.3%，降幅较前一月收窄0.1%，部分指标的跌幅呈现出收窄或者趋稳的态势。 在全面取消限购、限贷政策持续优化等多重因素叠加之下，2025年的广州房地产市场整体表现尤为亮眼。根据《广州 市2025年住房发展年度计划》及行业数据显示，2025年广州全市新房成交面积达355.6万平方米，同比降幅收窄至 4.2%，其中中心五区成交占比提升至36%，成为大湾区市场回稳的核心引擎。 回望2025年，在房地产行业向高质量发展转型的关键节点，万科深度锚定广佛都市圈发展脉搏，以"与城市共生长"的 初心深耕布局，凭借优质产品供给与全生命周期服务体系，交出了一份亮眼的市场答卷，持续赢得市场与消费者的广 泛认可。 持续领跑，多个红盘霸榜市场头部 （万科·理想花地规划图，以实际建设为准） 凭借深厚的品牌积淀与产品实力，2025年万科在广佛的销售业绩突破100亿元，多个红盘稳居所在板块销售榜单前 列，市场认可度持续领跑。据克而瑞数据，万科·理想花地全年热度稳居广州荔湾花地湾片区首位，2022至2 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation [4] - The short-term development sector will continue to see policy easing to address supply-demand mismatches, supported by credit [4] - The emphasis will be on upgrading housing quality and establishing standards for new constructions, while ensuring the safety of the entire lifecycle of housing [4] Group 2: Banking Sector Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, primarily affecting 2-3 year fixed deposits, while 1-year deposits remain stable [6] - Credit growth is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a slight decline in growth rate, primarily focused on corporate lending [6] - Net interest income growth is anticipated to improve due to a significant narrowing of interest margins, with most large banks experiencing a decline of less than 10 basis points [6] Group 3: Non-Bank Financial Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector are centered around three main themes: wealth management related to financial technology and brokerage firms, valuation recovery in the insurance sector due to stable interest rates, and the expansion of digital RMB [9] - The retail business is expected to have a competitive advantage, benefiting from the entry of resident funds into the market in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - The digital RMB is supported by national development initiatives, which will drive upgrades in banking systems and payment terminals, increasing service fees in the banking IT and third-party payment sectors [9]

责编：李霞 编审：莫 非 监制：张立果 出品：城楼网/城楼财经 在融资端，专项债与"白名单"机制形成关键支撑。2025年地方政府专项债限额增至4.4万亿元，增幅为近六年最 高，重点投向土地收储、存量房收购等领域，助力化解库存压力。同时，房地产融资协调机制持续发力，"白名 单"项目累计贷款超7万亿元，保障近2000万套住房交付，对企业资金的支持作用显著。 1月26日，克而瑞研究发文探讨地产行业发展。该机构认为，我国房地产行业正深化从"规模扩张"向"高质量发 展"的战略转型。随着城镇化进入稳定发展期，政策重心已转向建立"人、房、地、钱"要素联动机制，通过融资精 准纾困与供给结构优化双轮驱动，促进市场平稳健康发展。 供给端则持续推动"控量提质"。2025年住宅新开工面积仅为同期成交面积的68%，供小于求态势延续。土地成交 向优质宅地倾斜，平均溢价率有所回升。存量盘活同步推进，全年多地公告回购存量闲置项目涉及土地2.2亿平方 米，有望减轻库存压力，并通过规划调整转化为市场有效供给。 当前，行业库存压力仍存，房价处于调整期。但随着政策协同发力，供需关系逐步改善，核心城市房价有望逐步 企稳。未来，以要素联动为核心、融资与 ...