关税冲击日本经济 日本财务省周三（18日）公布的数据显示，日本5月份出口出现八个月来的首次下降，表明美国的全面关税正 威胁着该国脆弱的经济。 数据显示，5月份，日本出口总额同比下降1.7%，而4月份的出口同比增长了2%。日本5月出口下降主要受汽 车、钢铁和矿物燃料拖累。具体来看，日本5月对美国的出口同比下降11.1%，对中国的出口同比下降8.8%。5 月份，日本进口同比下降7.7%，降幅超过市场预期的6.7%。当月，日本出现了6376亿日元的贸易逆差。 出口下滑和贸易逆差扩大，加剧了市场对日本经济第二季度可能再次萎缩，从而陷入技术性衰退的担忧。此 外，由于通胀持续超过工资增速，日本国内消费疲软。 关税，对日本的经济造成重大打击！ 6月18日最新披露的数据显示，在美国关税冲击下，日本5月份出口额同比下降1.7%，为八个月来首次下滑， 这加剧了日本经济陷入技术性衰退的担忧。数据显示，5月份，日本对美国的出口同比下降11.1%。 同日，日本财务省公布的贸易统计初值显示，日本5月的贸易逆差为6376亿日元，系连续第二个月呈现逆差。 当地时间周二（17日），美国总统特朗普称，日本在贸易谈判中表现"强硬"。特朗普补充道： ...

Group 1 - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower but experienced a subsequent rally, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 0.2% to its highest point since February 21 [3][5] - Notable individual stocks that performed well include Prince Holdings, Taisei Corporation, and Nintendo [4] - The KOSPI index in South Korea increased by 0.45%, reaching 2963.63 points [5] Group 2 - Japan's exports fell for the first time in eight months, with a year-on-year decline of 1.7% in May, impacted by tariffs and weak demand for automobiles, steel, and mineral fuels [7] - Imports also decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, with significant reductions in crude oil and coal imports [7] - Japan's trade balance showed a deficit for the second consecutive month, with the deficit amounting to 637.6 billion yen [7] - Exports to the U.S. dropped by 11.1% year-on-year, marking a 4.7% decline in Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. for the first time in five months [7] - Concerns are rising about a potential technical recession in Japan if the economy continues to contract in the second quarter, amid weak domestic consumption and inflation outpacing wage growth [7] Group 3 - Ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the U.S. have not reached a consensus, with both sides agreeing to further discussions [7] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% and plans to slow down the pace of bond purchase reductions in the next fiscal year [7] - Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, indicated that the Bank of Japan is likely to keep interest rates unchanged due to global economic uncertainties [8] - The current economic environment is complicated by rising food prices, global trade tensions, and oil price fluctuations, although there is a positive cycle forming between wage increases and stable prices domestically [8]

个股方面，王子控股、大成建设、任天堂等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王子控股 | 722.2 | 4.12% | 7326亿 | | 3861.T | | | | | 大成建设 | 8280.0 | 3.37% | 15166亿 | | 1801.T | | | | | 任天堂 | 12850.0 | 3.30% | 16.69万亿 | | 7974.T | | | | | 东京煤气 | 4865.0 | 2.55% | 18054亿 | | 9531.T | | | | | 鹿岛建设 | 3746.0 | 2.52% | 19803亿 | | 1812.T | | | | | CYBERAGENT | 1545.5 | 2.38% | 7828亿 | | 4751.T | | | | | 斯巴鲁 | 2565.5 | 2.21% | 18807亿 | | 7270.T | | | | | 东京建筑 | 2712.5 | 2.11% | 5674亿 | | 8804.T | | | | | 保谷光学 | 16905.0 ...

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow down significantly due to uncertainties related to trade policies, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from over 2% to 1.4% by 2025 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have risen, with consumer prices projected to increase by 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.5% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates to a neutral level of around 3%, which is not considered contractionary for the economy [4] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Prospects - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 0.8%, largely dependent on Germany's ability to relax fiscal controls [5][7] - Germany's €500 billion infrastructure investment plan could potentially be a game-changer, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][7] - The Eurozone's inflation is expected to remain below the European Central Bank's target, allowing for potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [8] Group 3: UK Economic Situation - The UK economy is showing signs of stability and growth, with GDP growth forecasted at around 1% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5% [9][10] - Recent strong growth and private consumption have shifted the risk outlook positively for the remainder of the year [9] - Inflation remains complex, with short-term fluctuations expected, but a gradual easing in price increases is anticipated due to a loosening labor market [10]

【环球时报综合报道】日本内阁府周一公布的数据显示，截至3月的3个月内，日本实际国内生产总值 （GDP）按年率计算萎缩0.2%，优于初值所显示的0.7%降幅。此外，日本财务省9日公布的4月国际收 支初值显示，出口减去进口的贸易收支为逆差328亿日元（100日元约合4.98元人民币）。出口增长4.0% 至8.77万亿日元，进口减少2.9%至8.80万亿日元。 针对日本一季度的经济数据情况，日本舆论予以广泛关注。彭博社（日文版）9日分析称，尽管修正后 的数据收窄了负值，但内需未能完全弥补疲软的外需的局面仍然没有改变。由于日本物价高企，个人消 费依然疲软，而围绕美国特朗普政府关税措施的不确定性继续对全球经济构成下行压力。促进个人消费 和持续的出口增长仍是日本经济恢复正增长的关键。 针对特朗普关税，经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正于5日至8日访问华盛顿，举行了第五轮谈判，但双方仍未 达成共识。日方坚持寻求取消一系列关税措施的政策。据《日本经济新闻》9日报道，赤泽亮正计划本 周再次访问美国，出席第六轮日美关税谈判。这将是赤泽连续4周访问美国。由于七国集团（G7）峰会 将于6月15日至17日在加拿大举行，日本正寻求利用此次机会就关 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的日本最新工资数据对寻求进一步加息以推进货币政策正常化的日本央行而言是一个积极的进展。数据显示，日本4月基本工 资同比增长2.2%，高于3月经修正后的1.4%;名义工资同比增长2.3%，不及经济学家预期的2.6%。一项更稳定的工资趋势指标则显示，全职工人的工资同比 上涨了2.5%，连续第20个月保持在2%或以上(该指标避免了抽样问题，也不包括奖金和加班费)。但不利的一方面是，实际薪资收入同比下降了1.8%，大于 市场预期的1.6%降幅。 在年度劳资谈判之后，工资前景普遍乐观。日本企业连续第二年承诺将工资提高5%以上。据日本最大工会联合会Rengo的最新统计，一些工人获得了30多年 来最大幅度的加薪。根据日本央行以往研究，这些加薪将在6月左右的工资单中更全面地体现出来。 不过，也有一些经济学家警告称，美国总统特朗普的关税可能压缩企业利润，限制部分企业为员工提供更慷慨薪资的能力。日本央行在其最新的展望报告中 指出，名义工资增长的速度可能会因企业利润下降而在未来放缓，但并未进一步说明具体背景。 Bloomberg Economics经济学家Taro Kimura指出，前几个月的数据受到闰 ...

文︱陆弃 在全球经济复杂动荡的背景下，加拿大这颗北美经济的重要棋子正显露出疲态。彭博社最新调查显示， 加拿大经济或已步入技术性衰退的边缘，二季度经济预计按年率萎缩1%，紧接着第三季度继续收缩 0.1%。这一趋势背后，是美国与加拿大之间日益激烈的贸易摩擦所带来的冲击，出口骤减、失业率上 升、家庭消费萎缩以及房地产市场降温，成为加国经济疲软的鲜明写照。 失业率的攀升预示着经济滑坡的传导效应正逐步加深。调查显示，下半年失业率可能上升至7.2%，这 是加拿大近年来罕见的高位水平。劳动力市场紧张，直接影响居民消费信心。消费是经济的"半壁江 山"，消费者变得谨慎，自然会拖累整体经济表现。与此同时，加拿大房地产市场也在阴影笼罩下明显 降温，房价与成交量双双下跌，住房开工量预计将进一步减少，房地产作为经济重要支柱的作用逐渐削 弱。 通胀压力的存在令加央行面临两难抉择。当前通胀高于央行2%的目标水平，第三、四季度通胀预期分 别为2.1%与2.2%。在如此背景下，加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆虽称调整利率可能性不大，但市场对于货 币政策前景仍然保持高度关注。央行试图在稳增长与控通胀间寻求平衡，但贸易摩擦所带来的不确定 性，极大限制了货币 ...

Group 1: Russia's Military and Economic Situation - Russia shows little interest in peace negotiations with Ukraine, despite external pressures and potential new military offensives planned for summer [1] - The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) analyst Jack Watling indicates that Russia's military equipment from Soviet times will be depleted by mid-autumn, limiting its ability to replenish losses [1] - Economic and military pressures within Russia, including sanctions on oil exports and military supplies, may eventually force Russia to negotiate [1] Group 2: Economic Challenges - Russia's economy is under severe strain due to international sanctions and domestic pressures, with inflation reaching 10.2% in April and the central bank maintaining high interest rates at 21% [2] - GDP growth in Russia has sharply declined from 4.5% in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1, indicating a potential technical recession [2][3] - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicts GDP growth will drop from 4.3% in 2024 to 2.5% this year, highlighting a loss of economic momentum [3] Group 3: Oil Prices and Revenue Impact - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with Brent crude at $64.94 per barrel and Urals crude at $59.97, leading to a projected 24% drop in oil and gas revenues for Russia [4] - The Russian Finance Ministry has revised its oil price forecast down from $69.7 to $56 per barrel, increasing the budget deficit expectation from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP [4] - Analysts suggest that continued Western efforts to weaken the Russian economy could lead to a critical decision for Russia regarding the costs of ongoing military engagement [4]

金十数据5月22日讯，RHB Bank首席经济学家兼市场研究主管Barnabas Gan在一份报告中说，新加坡的 GDP增长势头可能进一步减弱，并在今年上半年进入技术衰退。由于全球关税、贸易关系和美国政策的 不确定性的变化，新加坡的经济前景变得更加不确定。由于全球发展难以预测，新加坡的贸易和制造业 可能会面临更多阻力，尤其是从第二季度开始。预计，经季节性因素调整后，新加坡第二季度国内生产 总值将收缩2.4%，而第一季度的降幅为0.6%。 新加坡上半年可能进入技术性衰退 ...

新加坡贸易部官员：可能会出现技术性衰退，但不一定会出现全面衰退。 ...