Market Sentiment - The market observes a pattern of large investors ("大户") attempting to buy the dip, with each wave entering at slightly lower price points (e.g., 90k, 88k) [1] - The author expresses understanding of the psychological anchoring effect when observing BTC at 90k [1] Trading Strategy - The author adopts a strategy of holding spot assets in dual currencies to mitigate losses [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations on November 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [2] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 4.02% [2] - Nearly 5,100 stocks in the market declined, with 99 stocks hitting the daily limit down [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 257.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Stock Performance - Only 354 stocks in the entire A-share market rose, which is slightly higher than the 106 stocks that rose on April 7 this year [3][4] - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume during specific time periods, particularly at the market open and between 10:30 and 11:30, indicating heightened trading activity [4][8] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment shifted towards fear, with panic selling observed as the indices continued to decline [6][9] - The previous days had shown a lack of significant panic, but the current market conditions indicated that "panic funds" had finally emerged [11] - The market's ability to recover or continue to decline remains uncertain, with ongoing debates about whether the current situation represents a rebound or a continuation of the downtrend [11] Influencing Factors - Concerns regarding the U.S. stock market, particularly technology stocks, have influenced market sentiment, with traders worried about whether AI can generate sufficient revenue to justify investments [14] - The potential for a "independent market" in A-shares, supported by protective funds and internal logic, is being closely monitored [14] - The "national team" of funds has increased its holdings in 222 A-share stocks, with a total market value of 3.911 trillion yuan, indicating a strategic focus on stabilizing the market [19]

Market Analysis - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a downtrend, with Bitcoin showing predominantly negative price action on the daily chart [1] - Bybit's Bitcoin USD perpetual funding rates are high, historically indicating limited potential for a significant upward reversal [1] - A substantial market rebound is not anticipated unless a period of intensely negative funding rates occurs, potentially signaling a short-term or medium-term buying opportunity [1] - From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin's price movement suggests a longer-term downward trajectory, potentially extending to lower price levels [1] - The analysis suggests that the current price action may represent the initial phase of a multi-wave downward correction [1] Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions should only be considered if smaller timeframe market structures shift favorably, accompanied by a pullback [1] - Scalping long positions are the only viable option for short-term trades in the absence of a broader market structure shift [1] - A potential support level exists at a lower price point, but a period of consolidation and market structure change is necessary before considering long positions [1] - A false breakout followed by a decline at a key resistance level could present an opportunity to add to short positions [1] Risk Assessment - Altcoins are likely to continue declining towards zero, emphasizing the importance of focusing on Bitcoin [1] - The U S stock market may be facing challenges, potentially exacerbating the downward pressure on Bitcoin [1]

来不及为上一个 90 抄底的大户哀悼，下一个来到战场的是 88 抄底的大户我只双币接了点现货的原因是这样亏得慢多了，我非常能理解那种心理的锚定作用，因为感性上看见 BTC 90k 的时候我也真的很想去杠杆抄底，但是理性又告诉我既然看熊了就不应该去他妈的为了一个反弹去在下楼的电梯里做引体向上。核心就是管住手对很多人来说不操作和空仓是一种煎熬，我自己也是那种一天不赚钱心里不舒服的类型 😂 尽可能降低操作频率只能靠被动锁仓了仓位管理和现货的好处就是，仓位小了之后才能拿得住。山寨和 meme 赚的钱最后要是杠杆抄底给自己抄出事来，那真的没处说理。尤其是 BTC，总觉得 BTC 会回去的，但是扛住波动靠得只有仓位管理Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):我总有种葫芦娃救爷爷的感觉一个接一个的被套牢，一个接一个的不割肉，一个接一个的来抄底来不及为上一个 96 抄底的大户哀悼，下一个来到战场的是 90 抄底的大户。。。 ...

Market Trend Analysis - The analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a continuous downward trend, with no clear signs of a rebound [1] - The report highlights that high points are consistently decreasing, confirming the ongoing downtrend [1] - The industry observes that even attempts to hunt stop-loss orders are weak, suggesting significant selling pressure [1] Funding Rate Observation - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring the funding rate of USDT-based contracts, noting that high funding rates are rarely followed by substantial rebounds [1] - Historical data over the past two years suggests that negative funding rates often precede significant rebounds, providing a probabilistic reference for current market conditions [1] - The report suggests that a complete reduction in funding rates may signal a potential for a more substantial rebound [1] Trading Strategy Recommendations - The analysis advises caution against blindly buying the dip, as there are no apparent signs of a market bottom [1] - The industry suggests that any upward rebounds should be viewed as opportunities to short Bitcoin, particularly around previous resistance levels [1] - The report recommends against trying to catch falling knives, emphasizing the need to align with the prevailing trend [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, while over 4,100 stocks remained down, indicating a significant exchange of shares with stronger selling pressure [1][9] - The trading volume in the market decreased by 2,033.24 million yuan, totaling 17,428.46 million yuan for the day [9] Sector Performance - The aquaculture sector showed strong performance, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, driven by news of China suspending imports of Japanese seafood [9] - The organic silicon sector also saw a surge, with prices for DMC rising to 13,200 yuan per ton, up from 11,300 yuan per ton [9][19] Global Market Context - Global markets are experiencing a risk-off sentiment, primarily due to overbought conditions in markets like Japan and South Korea, leading to significant corrections [2][4] - The Nasdaq index has shown signs of being overbought, resulting in a 5% pullback, which is not unexpected [2] Investment Trends - The movement of bottom-fishing funds will ultimately determine market direction, with speculation on whether investors will engage in bottom-fishing tomorrow [4] - The Chinese government has indicated dissatisfaction with negotiation outcomes, leading to further trade restrictions with Japan, which may continue to influence market sentiment [5][20] Capital Flow - There was a net outflow of 24.491 billion yuan from major funds, with the electronics sector experiencing the largest outflow [22] - The top sectors with net inflows included defense, non-ferrous metals, and banking, while electronics and pharmaceuticals saw significant outflows [22]

Project Assessment - The project is perceived negatively, with concerns about the project team's integrity [1] - Doubts are raised about the possibility of redeeming tokens at the original ratio, regardless of any modifications to the points system [1] Financial Implications - The feasibility of enabling token redemption is questioned, highlighting potential financial burdens [1] Call for Ethical Conduct - A plea is made for the project team to act ethically and allow token holders to profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of a true market bottom, emphasizing that it is often quiet and overlooked, contrasting it with a noisy bottom where many investors are still interested in buying [1][2][3]. Group 1: Characteristics of Market Bottoms - A "noisy bottom" occurs when stock prices decline and there is significant discussion among investors about buying opportunities, indicating ongoing interest in the asset [2]. - A true market bottom is characterized by a lack of interest and discussion about the asset, where most investors dismiss it as a viable investment [3][4]. - The quiet nature of a true bottom is exemplified by the banking sector in 2023, where the Shanghai Banking Index hit a multi-year low, and discussions about investment opportunities in bank stocks were minimal [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - During the true bottom, many quantitative reports excluded bank stocks from analysis, indicating a widespread avoidance of the sector [5][6]. - Fund managers expressed reluctance to invest in bank stocks due to concerns about professional reputation and potential criticism from investors, highlighting a significant aversion to discussing these stocks [6].

Core Insights - 7 Siblings has continued to purchase Ethereum (ETH), acquiring 1,601 ETH for approximately $5.25 million today [1] - Since the significant drop on October 11, the institution has been buying the dip, accumulating a total of 45,800 ETH at an average price of $3,561, spending a total of $163 million USDC [1] - Currently, the ETH price is below the average purchase price, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $9.48 million [1]

Core Insights - China has significantly increased its oil imports, with daily imports exceeding 11 million barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia's production levels [3][5] - A substantial portion of these imports, estimated at 1 to 1.2 million barrels per day, is being stored in national reserves, indicating a strategic move rather than mere consumption [3][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced unprecedented volatility, with prices soaring to $130 per barrel during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by a decline to around $65 by 2025 due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions [5][7] - China's strategy of accumulating oil during price dips is akin to shopping during a sale, allowing for significant cost savings on imports, which can amount to hundreds of billions of yuan annually [7][13] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - China's oil import strategy is characterized by a calculated approach, waiting for optimal market conditions rather than engaging in panic buying [9][11] - The country has developed strong bargaining power with major oil-producing nations, enabling it to secure favorable terms for its imports [11][20] Group 3: Energy Security - China’s oil import structure is notably reliant on sensitive regions, with approximately 25% of its crude oil sourced from Russia and Iran, making it vulnerable to geopolitical risks [15][17] - The country’s strategic oil reserves, currently estimated at 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels, are three times larger than those of the United States, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions [29][31] Group 4: Future Preparedness - The ongoing accumulation of oil reserves is part of a broader strategy to prepare for potential global energy shocks, ensuring that China can maintain economic stability even in extreme scenarios [20][37] - The implementation of advanced technologies, such as blockchain for tracking oil supply, enhances the efficiency and responsiveness of China's oil reserve management [33][35]