Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3] - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2] Market Changes - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant increase in the stock of existing homes, leading to first-time buyers predominantly opting for second-hand homes, while new homes are increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][5] - The sales area of new residential properties from January to September 2025 was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase, with a decline in new residential property sales. However, recent policies have aimed to stabilize the market [3][5] - The government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market in its work report for the 2025 National Congress, indicating a sustained commitment to policy support [3] Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in key cities from January to July 2025, and second-hand home transactions accounted for 68% of total transactions by July, a record high [5][9] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand home prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [5] Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new home prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [10][12] - The investment strategies of real estate companies are increasingly focused on core cities, with significant competition for high-quality land parcels leading to record land prices in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [13][15] Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new home market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025 [16][20] - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant sales in luxury projects, indicating a release of demand from high-net-worth individuals [19][20] Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [20]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3]. Market Changes - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2]. - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant portion of demand now being met through second-hand housing, while new housing is increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][6]. Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the sales of new residential properties have been on a continuous decline, with a notable policy shift in September 2024 aimed at stabilizing the market [3][6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [6][10]. Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 10% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching a peak share of 68% in July [6][10]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand housing prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a rise in new housing prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [11][13]. - The investment focus of real estate companies has shifted towards core cities, with significant land auction prices being recorded in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [14][16]. Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new housing market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities [17][21]. - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant increases in transactions for properties priced between 10 million to 20 million yuan in cities like Beijing and Chengdu [20][21]. Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan: Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [21][22].

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed mixed signals, with new home prices experiencing slight increases while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][2][5]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2]. - The new home prices in the third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47%, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2]. - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, exhibited strong performance with new home prices rising by 0.48% month-on-month and 6.87% year-on-year [2][3]. - The market remains uneven, with second and third-tier cities struggling to reduce inventory, as evidenced by a 0.35% month-on-month decline in new home prices in September [3]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, marking a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [5][6]. - The second-hand home market has faced continuous pressure, with prices declining for 41 consecutive months, and a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [5][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced the largest declines in second-hand home prices, with a month-on-month drop of 0.87% in September [6]. Market Dynamics and Policy Responses - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects by developers in core cities, which has helped stabilize the market [3][4]. - Various cities have begun implementing targeted policies to alleviate pressure on the second-hand home market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing tax policies [7]. - Despite these efforts, the second-hand home market is expected to continue facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak market expectations [7].

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates that from January to July 2025, 24 out of 30 representative cities saw an increase in the proportion of transactions for residential properties over 120 square meters, highlighting the importance of improvement demand in the new housing market [1] Summary by Category Transaction Structure in Shanghai - In Shanghai, from January to July 2025, the transaction volume for properties under 90 square meters was 2,710 units, accounting for 9.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Properties between 90 and 200 square meters saw approximately 24,000 units sold, making up 85.0% of transactions, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For properties over 200 square meters, 1,544 units were sold, representing 5.4%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from 2024 [2] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 5 million accounted for 29.1% of transactions, down 5.1 percentage points from 2024 [2] - The segment priced between 5 million and 10 million saw an increase to 42.0% of transactions, while properties above 10 million accounted for 28.9%, up 4.4 percentage points [2] Transaction Structure in Chengdu - In Chengdu, from January to July 2025, transactions for properties under 90 square meters exceeded 5,411 units, with a slight increase to 9.2% [6] - The 90-200 square meter segment accounted for over 50,000 units sold, maintaining a stable share of 85.2% compared to 2024 [6] - For properties over 200 square meters, the share decreased to 5.7% [6] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 2.5 million accounted for 60.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from 2024 [6] - The segment priced between 2.5 million and 5 million increased to 30.8%, while properties above 5 million accounted for 8.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points [6] Transaction Structure in Foshan - In Foshan, from January to July 2025, transactions for properties under 90 square meters totaled 3,269 units, with a share of 17.6%, down 5.1 percentage points from 2024 [11] - The 90-200 square meter segment saw over 14,000 units sold, accounting for 77.3%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points [11] - For properties over 200 square meters, the share increased to 5.1% [11] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 2 million accounted for 70.2%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 2024 [11] - The segment priced between 2 million and 3 million saw a decrease to 16.7%, while properties above 3 million accounted for 13.0%, down from previous levels [11]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a downward trend, with first-tier cities seeing a decline in new home prices, leading to a significant drop in consumer confidence [1][4]. Market Overview - In June, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with the decline in prices expanding compared to the previous month [1]. - The overall sentiment towards the real estate market is pessimistic, with many expecting continued price drops [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The previous upward cycle in the real estate market has ended, shifting from a supply-demand imbalance to a situation where supply exceeds demand [5][6]. - The market is becoming more rational, and the likelihood of irrational price drops is decreasing [7]. Policy Support - Government policies are being implemented to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates and easing purchasing qualifications [6][7]. - These measures are intended to halt the decline in prices and provide support to the market [5][6]. City-Specific Trends - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are showing signs of recovery, with increases in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes [8]. - In contrast, many small and medium-sized cities are facing severe oversupply, leading to continued price adjustments, albeit at a reduced rate compared to previous years [9][11]. Future Demand Trends - As basic housing needs are met, there is expected to be a significant increase in demand for improved housing options [13][14]. - Developers are beginning to focus on high-quality residential projects to cater to the emerging demand for better living conditions [14].

Core Insights - The data from the China Index Academy indicates a shift in the transaction structure of residential properties, with an increase in the proportion of transactions for residential units larger than 120 square meters in 20 out of 30 representative cities from January to April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting a release of improvement-driven demand [1] - Cities such as Nanjing, Qingdao, Dongguan, Quanzhou, and Ganzhou saw an increase of over 8 percentage points in the transaction share of residential units larger than 120 square meters [1] - In Beijing, the proportion of transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan reached 24.9%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The real estate market in China has shown signs of recovery since 2025, with significant improvements noted during the recent "May Day" holiday due to a series of policy measures [1][7] - In Shanghai, the second-hand housing market was particularly active during the "May Day" holiday, with a year-on-year increase in transaction volume exceeding 40% [2][6] - Data from April 2025 indicates that Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 20,700 units, a 32% increase year-on-year, while cumulative transactions from January to April totaled 78,500 units, up 45% year-on-year [6] Group 2 - In Guangdong, various cities hosted home-buying festivals during the "May Day" holiday, with Shenzhen's event attracting over 100,000 attendees [9] - From May 1 to May 5, Shenzhen recorded 826 new home purchases, with a 23.89% increase in signed contracts compared to the same period in 2024, and 367 second-hand home transactions, marking a 36.96% increase year-on-year [9] - In Huizhou, a home-buying festival featured nearly 100 projects with exclusive time-limited offers, including first-time home loan rates as low as 3.0% [11]