今年的楼市"金九"，房价表现如何？ 10月1日，中指研究院发布的数据显示，9月，全国100个城市（以下简称百城）新建住宅均价为16926 元/平方米，环比微涨0.09%，同比上涨2.68%；二手住宅均价为13381元/平方米，环比下跌0.74%，同比 下跌7.38%。 《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，截至今年9月，百城二手房价格已连续41个月环比下跌；三季度，百城 二手房价格累计下跌2.26%，跌幅较二季度扩大0.14个百分点；前三季度，百城二手房价格累计下跌 5.79%。 具体来看，9月，上海（+0.82%）、杭州（+0.51%）、广州（+0.32%）等城市新房价格环比涨幅位居前 列；盐城（-1.87%）、徐州（-1.44%）、南通（-1.30%）等城市二手房价格环比跌幅靠前。 "房企今年上半年在核心城市竞得的部分地块，预计将在四季度逐步入市，（这部分）新增供应有望对 核心城市新房销售形成一定支撑，'好城市+好房子'仍具市场机会；二手房市场受挂牌量维持高位影 响，短期或将延续'以价换量'行情。"10月1日，中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶在接受《每日经济 新闻》记者微信采访时如是表示。 房企推盘潮起拉动新房价格 ...

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates that from January to July 2025, 24 out of 30 representative cities saw an increase in the proportion of transactions for residential properties over 120 square meters, highlighting the importance of improvement demand in the new housing market [1] Summary by Category Transaction Structure in Shanghai - In Shanghai, from January to July 2025, the transaction volume for properties under 90 square meters was 2,710 units, accounting for 9.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Properties between 90 and 200 square meters saw approximately 24,000 units sold, making up 85.0% of transactions, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For properties over 200 square meters, 1,544 units were sold, representing 5.4%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from 2024 [2] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 5 million accounted for 29.1% of transactions, down 5.1 percentage points from 2024 [2] - The segment priced between 5 million and 10 million saw an increase to 42.0% of transactions, while properties above 10 million accounted for 28.9%, up 4.4 percentage points [2] Transaction Structure in Chengdu - In Chengdu, from January to July 2025, transactions for properties under 90 square meters exceeded 5,411 units, with a slight increase to 9.2% [6] - The 90-200 square meter segment accounted for over 50,000 units sold, maintaining a stable share of 85.2% compared to 2024 [6] - For properties over 200 square meters, the share decreased to 5.7% [6] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 2.5 million accounted for 60.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from 2024 [6] - The segment priced between 2.5 million and 5 million increased to 30.8%, while properties above 5 million accounted for 8.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points [6] Transaction Structure in Foshan - In Foshan, from January to July 2025, transactions for properties under 90 square meters totaled 3,269 units, with a share of 17.6%, down 5.1 percentage points from 2024 [11] - The 90-200 square meter segment saw over 14,000 units sold, accounting for 77.3%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points [11] - For properties over 200 square meters, the share increased to 5.1% [11] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 2 million accounted for 70.2%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 2024 [11] - The segment priced between 2 million and 3 million saw a decrease to 16.7%, while properties above 3 million accounted for 13.0%, down from previous levels [11]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a downward trend, with first-tier cities seeing a decline in new home prices, leading to a significant drop in consumer confidence [1][4]. Market Overview - In June, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with the decline in prices expanding compared to the previous month [1]. - The overall sentiment towards the real estate market is pessimistic, with many expecting continued price drops [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The previous upward cycle in the real estate market has ended, shifting from a supply-demand imbalance to a situation where supply exceeds demand [5][6]. - The market is becoming more rational, and the likelihood of irrational price drops is decreasing [7]. Policy Support - Government policies are being implemented to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates and easing purchasing qualifications [6][7]. - These measures are intended to halt the decline in prices and provide support to the market [5][6]. City-Specific Trends - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are showing signs of recovery, with increases in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes [8]. - In contrast, many small and medium-sized cities are facing severe oversupply, leading to continued price adjustments, albeit at a reduced rate compared to previous years [9][11]. Future Demand Trends - As basic housing needs are met, there is expected to be a significant increase in demand for improved housing options [13][14]. - Developers are beginning to focus on high-quality residential projects to cater to the emerging demand for better living conditions [14].

Core Insights - The data from the China Index Academy indicates a shift in the transaction structure of residential properties, with an increase in the proportion of transactions for residential units larger than 120 square meters in 20 out of 30 representative cities from January to April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting a release of improvement-driven demand [1] - Cities such as Nanjing, Qingdao, Dongguan, Quanzhou, and Ganzhou saw an increase of over 8 percentage points in the transaction share of residential units larger than 120 square meters [1] - In Beijing, the proportion of transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan reached 24.9%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The real estate market in China has shown signs of recovery since 2025, with significant improvements noted during the recent "May Day" holiday due to a series of policy measures [1][7] - In Shanghai, the second-hand housing market was particularly active during the "May Day" holiday, with a year-on-year increase in transaction volume exceeding 40% [2][6] - Data from April 2025 indicates that Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 20,700 units, a 32% increase year-on-year, while cumulative transactions from January to April totaled 78,500 units, up 45% year-on-year [6] Group 2 - In Guangdong, various cities hosted home-buying festivals during the "May Day" holiday, with Shenzhen's event attracting over 100,000 attendees [9] - From May 1 to May 5, Shenzhen recorded 826 new home purchases, with a 23.89% increase in signed contracts compared to the same period in 2024, and 367 second-hand home transactions, marking a 36.96% increase year-on-year [9] - In Huizhou, a home-buying festival featured nearly 100 projects with exclusive time-limited offers, including first-time home loan rates as low as 3.0% [11]