夜幕降临，邻居小陈满面愁容地敲开了我家门，开口便抛出了一个让人深思的问题："你说，我这房子 现在到底该卖不该卖？"。他那套老房子买了将近十年，如今有人出价，足足比当初买入时高出了五十 万。然而，小陈的内心却充满了矛盾，他既渴望抓住这次盈利的机会，又担心一旦出售，房价再度上 涨，到时候想买都买不起了。 小陈的纠结，实际上是当下无数人的真实写照。手里握有房产的人，内心挣扎于是否要抛售；而那些尚 未拥有住房的人，也在犹豫着是否要踏入市场。这个问题看似简单，背后却牵扯着错综复杂的因素，值 得我们深入探讨。 当下房地产市场的局势确实让人难以捉摸。根据国家统计局最新发布的数据，截至2024年12月，全国70 个大中城市中，新建商品住宅价格环比出现下降的城市达到了48个，而价格上涨的城市仅有15个。二手 房市场的表现更是疲软，价格环比下降的城市数量高达55个。这些数字清晰地表明，楼市正处在一个调 整期，市场正在经历变化。 让我们首先分析一下当前购房者的心态。中国房地产业协会的调研数据显示，2024年购房群体中，刚性 需求占据了65%的比例，改善性需求占比为28%，而投资性需求仅占7%。这种结构性的变化非常显著， 意味着投资 ...

Core Insights - The trading structure of new and second-hand houses has changed, with second-hand houses increasingly replacing new houses as the market enters a stock era [1] - From January to October, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating stable overall market demand despite a high base from the previous year [3] - Various policies aimed at stabilizing the market are gradually showing positive effects, contributing to a stable total transaction volume compared to last year [5] Group 1 - The transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with second-hand houses accounting for 45% of the total transaction volume [7] - In several cities, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chongqing, the transaction area of second-hand houses has seen a year-on-year growth of over 10% [7] - There is a continuous release of housing demand, particularly for improvement needs, supported by policies such as increased housing provident fund loan limits and purchase subsidies [9]

"十五五"时期，房地产市场总体处于去库存阶段。房价总体水平走低，投资性购置需求明显减弱。 "十五五"时期，与房地产有关的宏观因素和行业因素将会发生哪些重要变化及其影响，市场的供求关系将会怎样演绎，市场结构将如何变化，政策怎样进 行应对？ 宏观因素对住房总需求和市场结构的影响 展望"十五五"，全国住房总需求和总供给都可能进一步收缩。总需求主要受长周期人口下降、城镇化建设放缓等因素影响而回落；而房企风险较高和投资 能力有限，供给端收缩的程度很可能大于需求端。供求关系有望向着平衡的方向发展，总供给过剩的程度将得到缓和。区域差异化的结构性市场特征将逐 步显现，城镇化建设更加侧重和聚焦于重点城市群都市圈的发展，高能级城市的住房市场相较之下更具竞争力，其住房销售、土地和投资市场份额将进一 步提升，与房地产相关的各项主要资源要素的分配将趋向合理。 我国将进入第一个完整五年规划期的人口减少周期。根据联合国发布的《世界人口展望2024版》的预测，到2030年，我国总人口约14亿人，较2025年总人 口净减少480万人左右。经测算，适龄购房人群总量和占比均有所下降，适龄购房人群总数可能减少2100万人，占总人口比重将从39.2% ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities, particularly Shanghai, continues to show positive price trends, with Shanghai's new home prices increasing by over 10% year-on-year in October [1][4] - Eight out of ten major cities reported both month-on-month and year-on-year increases in new home prices for October [2] Price Trends - Shanghai's new home prices rose by 10.7% year-on-year, while other cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw more modest increases ranging from 1% to 3% [3][4] - The average price per square meter in Shanghai reached 61,185 yuan, with a median price of 56,000 yuan [3] Sales Performance - Despite the price increases, new home transaction volumes in Shanghai decreased significantly in October, with a 24% month-on-month drop and a 35% year-on-year decline [5] - The only notable project in October was "Shangyuan" in the Minhang district, which sold 44 units at an average price of approximately 61,601 yuan per square meter [5] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a healthy inventory level in Shanghai, with a de-stocking cycle of 7 to 8 months [6] - Improvement in market sentiment is attributed to the performance of quality projects in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, which are seen as benchmarks for positive development in the real estate sector [4] Regional Comparisons - Hangzhou's new home prices increased by 6.51% year-on-year, with significant sales in high-priced projects, while Chengdu's prices rose by 6.18% year-on-year [7][9] - Chengdu's new home transaction volume reached 85,000 square meters in October, maintaining stability despite a year-on-year decline in sales [9] Future Outlook - The end of the year is expected to see increased supply from real estate companies, which may support new home sales in core cities [9]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities, particularly Shanghai, continues to show positive price trends, with new home prices in Shanghai increasing by 10.7% year-on-year in October [2][6] - Eight out of ten major cities reported both month-on-month and year-on-year increases in new home prices for October [3] - Despite the price increases, the transaction volume in Shanghai decreased significantly in October, with a 24% month-on-month drop and a 35% year-on-year decline [7] Price Trends - Shanghai's new home prices have risen for 83 consecutive months, with monthly year-on-year increases exceeding 5% since October 2024 [6] - Specific cities showed notable year-on-year price increases: Shanghai (10.7%), Hangzhou (6.51%), and Chengdu (6.18%), while Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, and Guangzhou saw increases between 1.0% and 3.0% [6][11] - The average price per square meter in Shanghai reached 61,185 yuan, with a median price of 56,000 yuan [4] Transaction Volume - In October, Shanghai's new home transaction volume was 740,000 square meters, marking a significant decrease due to high September figures and less appealing product offerings in October [7] - The top-selling projects in Shanghai included high-priced developments, with one project exceeding 214,000 yuan per square meter [9] Market Dynamics - The market in Shanghai is characterized by a relatively low short-term inventory and a healthy absorption cycle of 7-8 months [10] - Improvement in housing demand remains strong, particularly for quality projects in cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu, which have also seen significant sales in high-end segments [11][14] - The overall market is expected to face pressure towards the end of the year, with noticeable declines in sales volume for both new and second-hand homes in key cities [15]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is entering a critical bottoming phase due to intensive policy measures since the second half of 2021, with a projected cumulative sale of approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Policy Signals - The real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase since the second half of 2021, with a decline in new residential property sales. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been implemented, including a focus on stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][6]. Market Performance - From January to September 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year. The sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year, indicating a clear improvement trend despite remaining in negative territory [6][10]. Secondary Market Resilience - The secondary housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in 30 key cities from January to July 2025. By July, the proportion of secondary housing transactions reached 68%, a record high [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing price increases in new homes, while second and third-tier cities face price declines. For instance, new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 6.87% year-on-year in September 2025, marking 27 consecutive months of increases [11][13]. Investment Focus - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing their investments on core cities, with significant land acquisition activity in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu, leading to record land prices. For example, a land parcel in Shanghai was sold for 34.135 billion yuan, setting a new record for total land price in the country [13][15]. Demand Shift - The demand structure in the new housing market is shifting towards improvement needs, with larger units (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025. In Beijing, units over 120 square meters made up 42% of sales [16][20]. High-End Market Dynamics - The high-end market is performing well, with significant sales in luxury properties. For instance, over 25 "sunshine plates" (properties sold out on the first day) were recorded in Shanghai, most priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter. However, this segment may face demand exhaustion due to limited overall transaction volume [19][20]. Upcoming Report - The "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan" report will be officially released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the real estate industry [21].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3] - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2] Market Changes - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant increase in the stock of existing homes, leading to first-time buyers predominantly opting for second-hand homes, while new homes are increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][5] - The sales area of new residential properties from January to September 2025 was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase, with a decline in new residential property sales. However, recent policies have aimed to stabilize the market [3][5] - The government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market in its work report for the 2025 National Congress, indicating a sustained commitment to policy support [3] Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in key cities from January to July 2025, and second-hand home transactions accounted for 68% of total transactions by July, a record high [5][9] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand home prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [5] Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new home prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [10][12] - The investment strategies of real estate companies are increasingly focused on core cities, with significant competition for high-quality land parcels leading to record land prices in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [13][15] Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new home market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025 [16][20] - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant sales in luxury projects, indicating a release of demand from high-net-worth individuals [19][20] Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [20]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3]. Market Changes - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2]. - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant portion of demand now being met through second-hand housing, while new housing is increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][6]. Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the sales of new residential properties have been on a continuous decline, with a notable policy shift in September 2024 aimed at stabilizing the market [3][6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [6][10]. Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 10% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching a peak share of 68% in July [6][10]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand housing prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a rise in new housing prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [11][13]. - The investment focus of real estate companies has shifted towards core cities, with significant land auction prices being recorded in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [14][16]. Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new housing market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities [17][21]. - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant increases in transactions for properties priced between 10 million to 20 million yuan in cities like Beijing and Chengdu [20][21]. Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan: Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [21][22].

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed mixed signals, with new home prices experiencing slight increases while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][2][5]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2]. - The new home prices in the third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47%, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2]. - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, exhibited strong performance with new home prices rising by 0.48% month-on-month and 6.87% year-on-year [2][3]. - The market remains uneven, with second and third-tier cities struggling to reduce inventory, as evidenced by a 0.35% month-on-month decline in new home prices in September [3]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, marking a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [5][6]. - The second-hand home market has faced continuous pressure, with prices declining for 41 consecutive months, and a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [5][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced the largest declines in second-hand home prices, with a month-on-month drop of 0.87% in September [6]. Market Dynamics and Policy Responses - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects by developers in core cities, which has helped stabilize the market [3][4]. - Various cities have begun implementing targeted policies to alleviate pressure on the second-hand home market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing tax policies [7]. - Despite these efforts, the second-hand home market is expected to continue facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak market expectations [7].

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates that from January to July 2025, 24 out of 30 representative cities saw an increase in the proportion of transactions for residential properties over 120 square meters, highlighting the importance of improvement demand in the new housing market [1] Summary by Category Transaction Structure in Shanghai - In Shanghai, from January to July 2025, the transaction volume for properties under 90 square meters was 2,710 units, accounting for 9.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Properties between 90 and 200 square meters saw approximately 24,000 units sold, making up 85.0% of transactions, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For properties over 200 square meters, 1,544 units were sold, representing 5.4%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from 2024 [2] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 5 million accounted for 29.1% of transactions, down 5.1 percentage points from 2024 [2] - The segment priced between 5 million and 10 million saw an increase to 42.0% of transactions, while properties above 10 million accounted for 28.9%, up 4.4 percentage points [2] Transaction Structure in Chengdu - In Chengdu, from January to July 2025, transactions for properties under 90 square meters exceeded 5,411 units, with a slight increase to 9.2% [6] - The 90-200 square meter segment accounted for over 50,000 units sold, maintaining a stable share of 85.2% compared to 2024 [6] - For properties over 200 square meters, the share decreased to 5.7% [6] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 2.5 million accounted for 60.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from 2024 [6] - The segment priced between 2.5 million and 5 million increased to 30.8%, while properties above 5 million accounted for 8.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points [6] Transaction Structure in Foshan - In Foshan, from January to July 2025, transactions for properties under 90 square meters totaled 3,269 units, with a share of 17.6%, down 5.1 percentage points from 2024 [11] - The 90-200 square meter segment saw over 14,000 units sold, accounting for 77.3%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points [11] - For properties over 200 square meters, the share increased to 5.1% [11] - In terms of total price structure, properties priced below 2 million accounted for 70.2%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 2024 [11] - The segment priced between 2 million and 3 million saw a decrease to 16.7%, while properties above 3 million accounted for 13.0%, down from previous levels [11]