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老,无所“依”|青山资本2025年度研究报告
混沌学园· 2025-09-17 11:58
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity and diversity within the elderly population in China, challenging the common narratives of aging as a homogeneous experience and highlighting the need for a nuanced understanding of their needs and behaviors [3][9][20]. Demographic Changes - Global population structures are undergoing significant changes, with median ages rising in both developed and emerging economies. By 2075, the median age in developed economies is projected to reach 47 years, while in emerging economies, it will be around 40 years [5]. - Life expectancy has increased globally, with the average rising from 62 years to 75 years over the past 50 years. In developed economies, it has risen from 72 years to 82 years, and in emerging economies, from 58 years to 73 years [7]. Aging in China - By the end of 2024, the elderly population (aged 60 and above) in China is expected to reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population. The proportion of those aged 65 and above will be 15.6%, indicating that China has entered a deep aging society [9]. - The speed of aging in China is unprecedented, with the transition to a deep aging society occurring in just 21 years, compared to much longer periods in other countries [9]. Definition of Aging - Aging is a natural biological process experienced by nearly all animals. The concept of "elderly" has evolved from being a symbol of wisdom and authority in primitive and agricultural societies to a defined life stage in modern welfare states [15][16]. Internal Diversity of the Elderly Population - The elderly population in China is characterized by significant internal diversity, with varying experiences and backgrounds leading to different consumption behaviors and needs. This diversity is more pronounced than in previous or subsequent generations [18][20]. - Historical events and socio-economic changes have created distinct cohorts within the elderly population, leading to varying levels of education, health, and economic stability [21][24]. Consumption Patterns - The elderly population holds substantial wealth, with approximately 20% of global wealth owned by those aged 75 and above. In China, the total wealth of individuals aged 60 and above reached 78.4 trillion yuan in 2023 [28]. - The elderly exhibit a high savings rate of 60%, indicating a strong tendency towards precautionary savings. Their consumption patterns are influenced by their income, health status, and life experiences [29][31]. Market Opportunities - The elderly consumer market in China is vast and complex, with significant opportunities for businesses that can navigate its diversity. However, it is not a monolithic market, and understanding the nuances of different consumer segments is crucial for success [31][76]. - The article highlights the need for tailored products and services that address the specific needs of various subgroups within the elderly population, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [76]. Digital Engagement - There is a significant digital divide among the elderly, with about 52% of those aged 60 and above being internet users. However, many remain excluded from the digital world due to various barriers, including lack of skills and access [78][80]. - The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital adoption among the elderly, with many being forced to learn how to use smartphones and online services for essential tasks [84].
《世界贸易报告》:到2040年AI将推动全球贸易增长近40%
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-17 11:50
Core Insights - The WTO's 2025 World Trade Report highlights the evolving relationship between AI and international trade, emphasizing AI's potential to drive inclusive growth and significantly enhance global trade value by nearly 40% by 2040 [1] Group 1: AI's Impact on Trade and Growth - AI is expected to serve as a catalyst for more inclusive growth by lowering trade costs and expanding access to global markets, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2] - The report forecasts that AI could lead to a substantial increase in global trade and GDP, with trade expected to rise by 34% to 37% by 2040, and digital services trade, including AI services, projected to grow by 42% [3] - AI's development and application are anticipated to contribute to global GDP growth, with increases ranging from 12% to 13% across different scenarios [4] Group 2: Trade's Role in AI Innovation - Trade can facilitate the diffusion of AI innovation, with a strong correlation between the growth of digital services trade and cross-border AI patent citations, indicating knowledge flow [5] - In 2023, the global trade value of AI-related inputs, including raw materials and semiconductors, reached $2.3 trillion, highlighting the importance of international markets for AI development [4] Group 3: Challenges and Policy Considerations - The report warns that the impact of AI on inclusive growth depends on the design of trade and related policies, as disparities in policy adoption between countries can exacerbate structural gaps, particularly regarding the digital divide [6][7] - High-income and upper-middle-income economies have more advanced policy frameworks for AI and digital trade, while low-income economies are lagging, limiting their ability to harness AI's potential [7] - The WTO emphasizes the need for targeted government support and international cooperation in policy adoption to ensure that trade continues to be a force for inclusive progress in the AI era [8]
老,无所“依”|青山资本2025年度研究报告
首席商业评论· 2025-09-16 04:16
Core Insights - The article discusses the profound and rapid aging of the population in China, highlighting the complexities and internal diversities within the elderly demographic, which is often overlooked by society and market research [4][10][18]. Group 1: Demographic Changes - The median age in developed economies has increased from 30 to 43 years over the past 50 years, with projections indicating it will reach 47 years by 2075. Emerging economies have seen a rise from 19 to 30 years [5]. - Global life expectancy has risen from 62 to 75 years in the last 50 years, with developed economies seeing an increase from 72 to 82 years [8]. - By the end of 2024, China's population aged 60 and above is expected to reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population, marking the country’s entry into a deeply aging society [10]. Group 2: Aging Process and Definitions - Aging is a natural biological process experienced by nearly all animals, characterized by various physiological changes [12]. - The definition of "elderly" has evolved over time, with the World Health Organization defining elderly individuals as those aged 60 and above, while in developed countries, the age is often set at 65 [14]. Group 3: Internal Diversity of the Elderly Population - The elderly population in China is marked by significant internal diversity, with varying experiences and backgrounds leading to different consumption behaviors and needs [16][18]. - Historical events, such as the Great Chinese Famine and the Cultural Revolution, have created distinct generational experiences that influence the current elderly population's values and consumption patterns [20][21]. Group 4: Economic Disparities - There is a stark disparity in income among retirees in China, with pensions for civil servants being 28 times higher than those for rural residents [24]. - The elderly population's wealth is substantial, with the total wealth of individuals aged 60 and above in China reaching 78.4 trillion yuan, averaging 264,000 yuan per person [25]. Group 5: Consumption Patterns - The elderly consumer market is complex and multifaceted, with a significant portion of the population exhibiting low consumption levels despite the overall market potential [28][69]. - Many elderly individuals prioritize essential spending and exhibit high price sensitivity, often focusing on tangible benefits rather than abstract services [60][63]. Group 6: Digital Engagement - Approximately 52% of elderly individuals in China are internet users, indicating a significant digital divide where many remain disconnected from online resources [71]. - The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital engagement among the elderly, with many being forced to learn to use smartphones for essential services [78]. Group 7: Market Opportunities - The elderly market presents a vast opportunity for businesses, but it requires a nuanced understanding of the diverse needs and preferences within this demographic [28][69]. - Companies must focus on tailored services and products that address the specific challenges faced by different segments of the elderly population, rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach [69].
让数字公共服务惠及更多农村居民
Core Insights - The construction of digital rural services is rapidly advancing, with a nationwide survey conducted by China University of Political Science and Law in 2024 revealing significant findings about rural residents' engagement with digital media and services [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Media Usage - Rural residents are not isolated from digital media; new media, especially short videos, have become the primary tools for information and social interaction among them [1]. - The survey indicates a high preference for new media among rural residents, with short videos being the most popular due to their low entry barrier and ability to meet information needs quickly [1]. Group 2: Digital Divide - Despite the preference for new media, many rural residents primarily consume entertainment content rather than accessing public services or participating in social governance [2]. - The "digital divide" persists in rural areas, particularly among older individuals and those with lower education levels, who often lack the skills and equipment to utilize digital service platforms effectively [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - To ensure digital public services benefit more rural residents, services should align with user habits by integrating public service information with entertainment content, such as creating engaging and interactive public service short videos [3]. - Information dissemination should be precise, targeting specific demographics like the youth for employment and the elderly for health information through tailored advertising and recommendations [3]. - Enhancing digital literacy among rural residents is crucial, with suggestions for government and social organizations to provide training and support through hotlines, workshops, and community leaders [3].
让数字公共服务惠及更多农村居民(新媒视点)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-09-14 20:28
Core Insights - The construction of digital rural services is rapidly advancing, with a nationwide survey conducted by China University of Political Science and Law in 2024 revealing significant findings about rural residents' engagement with digital media and public services [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Media Usage - Rural residents are not isolated from digital media; new media, especially short videos, have become the primary tools for information and social interaction among them [1]. - The survey indicates a high preference for short videos among rural residents due to their low entry barrier and ability to quickly meet information needs [1]. - Algorithmic recommendations have increased visibility for ordinary users, allowing more rural residents to participate in information dissemination [1]. Group 2: Digital Divide - Despite the usage of new media, many rural residents primarily consume entertainment content, highlighting the persistence of the "digital divide" phenomenon [2]. - The divide is characterized by older age and lower education levels, which hinder these groups from effectively utilizing digital service platforms [2]. - Some individuals may access new media with assistance from family or community, but their digital engagement remains limited [2]. Group 3: Enhancing Digital Public Services - To ensure digital public services benefit more rural residents, services should align with user habits, integrating public service information with entertainment content [3]. - Information dissemination should be precise, targeting specific interests of different demographic groups, such as employment for youth and health for the elderly [3]. - Training programs to enhance digital literacy among low-education and elderly groups are essential, with support from government and social organizations [3].
全球治理倡议因何赢得世界广泛支持?
浏览近半个月国际媒体报道,"全球治理倡议"是一大热词。根据大数据分析,自9月1日中国国家主席习近平在上 合组织天津峰会上提出这一倡议以来,该词条的全球搜索热度在次日即达到峰值,之后持续保持高关注度。连日来, 从上合组织天津峰会,到纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年活动,再到金砖国家领导人线上峰 会,多国领导人纷纷对全球治理倡议给予支持与赞同,表示乐见中方为完善全球治理体系作出更大贡献。 这样的全球热度背后,原因是什么?不妨从时、势、人三个维度去观察。 当前,百年变局加速演进。个别国家推行霸权主义、保护主义,严重冲击二战后伴随联合国成立而形成的国际治 理秩序。与此同时,全球南方整体崛起,但在现行国际治理机制中的代表性严重不足。此外,气候变化、数字鸿沟、 人工智能、外空治理等新旧全球性挑战相互叠加,迫切需要国际社会共同创建行之有效的治理机制。 从全球治理倡议的核心理念看,无不体现了问题导向。比如,将"奉行主权平等"作为首要前提,强调各国无论大 小、强弱、贫富,都享有平等参与国际事务的权利,针对的是"谁拳头大谁说了算"的霸权逻辑;强调"遵守国际法 治""践行多边主义",是对个别大国搞"家法帮规"、单 ...
国际锐评丨全球治理倡议因何赢得世界广泛支持?
浏览近半个月国际媒体报道,"全球治理倡议"是一大热词。根据大数据分析,自9月1日中国国家主席习近平在上合组织天津峰会上提出这一倡议以来,该词 条的全球搜索热度在次日即达到峰值,之后持续保持高关注度。连日来,从上合组织天津峰会,到纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年活 动,再到金砖国家领导人线上峰会,多国领导人纷纷对全球治理倡议给予支持与赞同,表示乐见中方为完善全球治理体系作出更大贡献。 这样的全球热度背后,原因是什么?不妨从时、势、人三个维度去观察。 第一个维度:正当其时。 全球治理是否管用,关键在于能否解决实际问题。全球治理倡议,针对的是时弊,解决的是真问题。 当前,百年变局加速演进。个别国家推行霸权主义、保护主义,严重冲击二战后伴随联合国成立而形成的国际治理秩序。与此同时,全球南方整体崛起,但 在现行国际治理机制中的代表性严重不足。此外,气候变化、数字鸿沟、人工智能、外空治理等新旧全球性挑战相互叠加,迫切需要国际社会共同创建行之 有效的治理机制。 从全球治理倡议的核心理念看,无不体现了问题导向。比如,将"奉行主权平等"作为首要前提,强调各国无论大小、强弱、贫富,都享有平等参与国际事务 的权利 ...
十方融海:以“人工智能+”驱动,探索技术与民生融合的创新之路
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-09-04 07:00
Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's Shifang Ronghai Technology Co., Ltd. is at the forefront of technological transformation, focusing on breakthroughs in large model technology and its integration with public welfare, driven by the government's "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1][6]. Group 1: Policy and Technological Breakthroughs - In 2023, Shifang Ronghai launched a series of large models such as Openbuddy, Tens AI, and Xiaozhi AI, establishing a robust technical matrix for vertical scene applications [2]. - The company innovatively resolved the contradiction between the generality of large models and their adaptability to specific scenarios through a "base model + scene fine-tuning" dual-driven technology model [2]. - Xiaozhi AI exemplifies this innovation, featuring real-time feedback and high-fidelity voice replication, enabling rapid and precise optimization across various industries like education and elderly care [2]. Group 2: Data-Driven AI Development - Shifang Ronghai has transformed the relationship between data and models from "feeding models" to "models nurturing data," enhancing the efficiency of skill transfer by 40% through its AI training products [3]. Group 3: AI in Industry - The company empowers traditional industries through a "model as a service" approach, particularly in the cultural and sports sectors, exemplified by the AI sports commentary agents "Zhe Xiaoti" and "Yu Dazui" during the Zhejiang Basketball League [4][5]. - These AI agents, developed in collaboration with Zhejiang companies, showcase a blend of professional and entertaining commentary, enhancing viewer engagement [5]. Group 4: Social Welfare and Humanistic Care - Shifang Ronghai emphasizes the integration of technology with humanistic care, focusing on smart elderly care and educational equity as key areas of development [6][7]. - The Xiaozhi AI model plays a crucial role in smart elderly care, utilizing a seven-dimensional emotional model to enhance interactions and address the emotional needs of the elderly [7]. - The company is also addressing the global challenge of digital inclusion for the elderly by participating in the development of international standards for digital economy inclusivity [8]. Group 5: Educational Equity - In the education sector, Shifang Ronghai's Nuwa Cloud Intelligent Teaching System has been implemented in rural areas, significantly improving student engagement and knowledge acquisition in AI and computer science [9]. - The company collaborates with local organizations to provide AI skills training for youth, contributing to the optimization of the talent structure in society [9].
美国2600万人没接入宽带,原因何在?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-03 05:13
美国宽带的发展水平,并不像很多人想象中那样领先。最近披露的两份报告,揭开了美国宽带发展所面 临的挑战。 除了"接入鸿沟",更严重的是"使用鸿沟"。BroadbandNow认为,即使某些地区已有宽带网络覆盖,高 昂的使用成本仍使许多家庭无法负担。 研究机构BroadbandNow最近发布的报告指出,尽管全美范围内的通信基础设施水平持续提升,但是"毁 灭性"的负担能力差距仍使很多人用不起固定宽带。例如,在排名垫底的阿拉斯加州,只有0.2%的居民 能够享受可负担的固定宽带服务。 该报告也对美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)的数据提出了强烈质疑。美国目前对宽带的定义为"100Mbps/ 下行速率、20Mbps/上行速率",FCC之前表示美国有1960万人未能用上宽带,而BroadBandNow调查后 认为,实际未用上宽带的美国人约2600万人。 而全球知名宽带测速机构Ookla对美国110个原住民部落进行的调研显示,近四成部落的网速中位值低于 FCC所设定的宽带最低下载速率标准(100Mbps)。 同时值得关注的是,受"可负担性"因素影响,在美国的一些州,即使光纤覆盖率较高,但宽带发展水平 却比较落后。这一现实正在推动美国 ...
(上合天津峰会)释放动能缩小鸿沟,上合组织《天津宣言》再谈数字经济
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-02 06:12
中新社天津9月2日电 题:释放动能缩小鸿沟,上合组织《天津宣言》再谈数字经济 《天津宣言》称,成员国致力于推进电子商务合作,注意到关于制定《上合组织成员国授权机构间发展 电子商务合作纲要》的建议。 数据显示,2024年,上合组织成员国网络零售市场规模超3.2万亿美元,占全球比重一半以上,中国自 其他成员国跨境电商进口同比增长34%,地区越来越多优质特色产品通过电商渠道进入中国市场。 辽宁大学校长、联合国国际经济学会会士余淼杰对中新社记者说,在全球范围内,中国本就是电商领域 的领跑者,加之自身数字技术、市场规模等优势,在上合组织深化跨境电商合作就成了为区域间经贸合 作注入新活力的有力抓手。 "跨境电商还有很大的发展潜力,上合组织国家通过对话协商能进一步优化各国间的电子商务政策环 境,变得更加公平、透明、可预期。"余淼杰说。 发展基础设施 中新社记者 夏宾 数字经济已成多届上海合作组织峰会的重要话题,《上海合作组织成员国元首理事会天津宣言》(下称 《天津宣言》)1日对外公布,再度谈及数字经济。 多位专家在接受中新社记者采访时称,数字浪潮席卷全球,数字红利规模巨大,上合组织成员国把发展 数字经济作为实现国家经济增长 ...