以下文章来源于亿欧汽车 ，作者彭苏平 亿欧汽车 . 专注汽车出行领域科创报道与投资价值研究 零跑汽车创始人、董事长朱江明第一时间在朋友圈转发了这个消息，并自信地立了一个新的 目标 ：明年将冲击 100 万辆，争取更上一层楼。 作者 | 彭苏平 来源 | 亿欧汽车 点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 自动驾驶之心 "公众号 戳我-> 领取 自动驾驶近30个 方向 学习 路线 >>自动驾驶前沿信息获取 → 自动驾驶之心知识星球 本文只做学术分享，如有侵权，联系删文 在过去几个月里，零跑的销量节节攀升。 今年三季度零跑共卖出了 17.4 万辆新车 ， 同比增长 101.77% ，环比也增长了 29.63% ，月销量接连突破 5 万辆、 6 万辆，四季度首月更是突破了 7 万辆大关。 在大规模的销量支撑下，零跑汽车也率先跑通了新能源车企的盈利模型。 11 月 17 日发布的三季报显示，零跑汽车三季度净利润 1.5 亿元，继半年度盈利之后，再度实现单季盈利。而在流动性方面，零跑也保持着正向的经营现金流与自由现金 流，在手资金 339.2 亿元。 这意味着，这家曾经不被看好的造车新势力，已经成功穿越生存考验，其 " 全域自研 " ...

Core Insights - The core message of the article emphasizes Leap Motor's commitment to providing high-quality electric vehicles at competitive prices, avoiding high-end premium strategies while focusing on self-research and development [2][8]. Sales and Growth Strategy - Leap Motor achieved a significant milestone by reaching 250,000 sales by November 15, 2023, with a target of 500,000 sales in 2024 and aiming for 1 million by 2025, driven by precise planning and product strategy [4][6]. - The company has established two core strategies for 2024: equipping all models with intelligent driving assistance and focusing on long-range and high-speed charging capabilities [4][6]. - Leap Motor's self-research system allows for a 65% self-manufacturing rate of core components, with plans to increase this to over 80%, enabling better cost control and higher product value [4][6]. Product Development and Market Positioning - The launch of the Lafa5 model targets the 10-15 million RMB market segment, filling a gap for sporty electric sedans that appeal to younger consumers [6][7]. - The company learned from the initial failure of the S01 model, leading to a more cautious approach in product definition and market strategy [6][7]. - Leap Motor's product matrix, including the successful C series and the upcoming D series, is crucial for achieving the sales target of 1 million units [7][8]. Brand Strategy and Market Differentiation - Leap Motor maintains a single-brand strategy, avoiding segmentation into high-end and low-end brands, focusing instead on delivering consistent quality across all price ranges [8][10]. - The brand is likened to Uniqlo in the automotive industry, emphasizing high cost-performance and reliability without brand premium pricing [8][10]. Future Outlook and Technological Development - The company plans to expand into overseas markets, with the Lafa5 model set to launch globally in the second quarter of the following year [10][11]. - Leap Motor is cautious about diversifying into other industries, preferring to focus on its core automotive business while exploring technological advancements [11][12]. - The company aims to leverage its self-research capabilities to enhance product competitiveness and maintain a long-term value investment approach [12].

Core Insights - The global smartphone shipment is expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year in 2025, with Apple projected to reclaim the top position in the market for the first time since 2011, achieving a global shipment share of 19.4% [1][3] - Samsung's shipment is also expected to grow by 4.6%, reaching a global share of 18.7%, but it will lose its long-held top position [1][6] Group 1: Apple - Apple's iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, driven by the successful launch of the iPhone 17 series [3][4] - The iPhone 17 series saw a 12% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 series in the first four weeks post-launch in the U.S., and an 18% increase in China [3][4] - The demand for iPhones is expected to be supported by a significant upgrade cycle, as many consumers who purchased smartphones during the pandemic are now looking to upgrade [4] - Apple is also benefiting from a favorable macro environment, including lower-than-expected global tariffs and easing trade tensions, which enhance demand in key growth markets [4][5] - The company plans to launch the iPhone 17e in the first half of 2026 and its first foldable iPhone by the end of the same year, which is expected to further solidify its market position [5] Group 2: Samsung - Samsung is expected to achieve a 5% growth in shipments in 2025, supported by a resilient supply chain and competitive pricing strategies in emerging markets [6] - Despite this growth, Samsung is unlikely to regain its top position in the global market from 2025 to 2029 due to increasing competition from Chinese smartphone brands in the mid-to-low-end market [6] Group 3: Chinese Smartphone Brands - Chinese smartphone brands are increasingly relying on overseas markets for growth, particularly in regions like India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, as domestic markets become saturated [7] - These brands are shifting towards higher price segments and investing in premium devices and AI features to enhance profitability [7] - However, supply chain uncertainties, particularly shortages in LPDDR4 memory, pose challenges for these brands, leading to a cautious outlook for their growth in 2026 [7]

Core Insights - Leap Motor has announced a sales target of 1 million units for 2026, having completed its 2025 target of 500,000 units 45 days ahead of schedule [2][5] - The company has become the first new car manufacturer to achieve its 2025 sales target and is positioned to be the leader in the new car manufacturing sector for that year [5] - Leap Motor has consistently been the monthly sales leader among new car manufacturers since March 2025, with record monthly deliveries exceeding 60,000 units in September and 70,000 units in October 2025 [5] Sales Performance - Leap Motor's early achievement of the 2025 sales target was anticipated, with CEO Zhu Jiangming expressing optimism about the fourth quarter of 2025 and confirming that orders were meeting expectations [5][7] - The company aims to launch 2 to 3 new models from the D series and 2 models from the A series in 2026, indicating a strong product pipeline [7] Historical Context - Leap Motor was founded in 2015 and reached its 1 millionth vehicle production milestone on September 25, 2025, becoming the second new car manufacturer to join the "million club" after Li Auto [7] - The company took five years to produce its first 500,000 vehicles but achieved the next 500,000 in less than a year, showcasing rapid growth [7] Strategic Focus - Leap Motor's strategy for achieving its next 1 million vehicle production target is centered on "upgrading and sincerity," emphasizing the importance of superior products and positive user feedback [7]

Core Insights - Leap Motor announced a sales target of 1 million vehicles for 2026, having completed its 2025 target of 500,000 vehicles 45 days ahead of schedule [2][8] - The company has been the top performer among new car manufacturers for eight consecutive months since March 2025, setting monthly delivery records [6] - Leap Motor's CEO expressed optimism about achieving the 2025 target, indicating strong order levels and expectations [6][9] Group 1 - Leap Motor achieved its 2025 sales target of 500,000 vehicles ahead of schedule, with September and October 2025 deliveries exceeding 60,000 and 70,000 vehicles respectively [6] - The company plans to launch 2 to 3 new models from the D series and 2 models from the A series in 2026, marking it as a significant product year [9] - Leap Motor became the second new car manufacturer to reach the milestone of 1 million vehicles produced, following Li Auto [9][11] Group 2 - The CEO highlighted that it took Leap Motor five years to produce its first 500,000 vehicles, but less than a year to reach the next 500,000 [11] - The key to achieving the next 1 million vehicles is believed to be "upgrading and sincerity," focusing on superior products and improved customer reputation [11]

Core Insights - The company has established a strategic plan and sales targets for the next five years, aiming to achieve the previously announced goal of 500,000 units sold before revealing next year's sales targets, indicating potential for significant growth in the coming year [1] Group 1 - In September, the company achieved a record monthly delivery of 66,657 units, ranking first among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with total sales for the first nine months reaching 395,516 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 129% [1] - The company has raised its annual sales target to between 580,000 and 650,000 units [1] Group 2 - The founder and CEO expressed optimism for 2026, highlighting the competitive nature of the already released B series, Lafa5, and C series products, along with plans to launch 2-3 new models from the D series and 2 models from the A series next year [3] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be the most significant for the company's product lineup, with expected overall sales growth [3]

Core Insights - The SOC (System on Chip) industry is experiencing significant growth due to its high integration, low power consumption, and enhanced performance, with the market size in China projected to increase from 221 billion yuan in 2020 to 341.2 billion yuan by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% [1][9]. SOC Chip Industry Overview - SOC chips integrate all components required for an electronic system into a single chip, including CPU, GPU, memory, and power management units, allowing for a complete microcomputer system [3]. - The applications of SOC chips span across various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive electronics, IoT, and AI [3]. SOC Chip Industry Chain - The SOC chip industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (chip IP cores, EDA software, semiconductor materials), midstream (chip design, wafer manufacturing, packaging), and downstream (applications in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, IoT, and AI) [5]. SOC Chip Industry Competitive Landscape - The global SOC chip market is highly competitive, with major players like Tesla, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm leading in technology and market share. Domestic companies such as Unisoc, Horizon Robotics, and Huawei HiSilicon are also emerging as significant competitors [9]. SOC Chip Industry Development Trends - Continuous technological innovation is expected to enhance SOC chip performance, with increased R&D investments aimed at achieving higher computing power and lower power consumption [11]. - The trend of domestic substitution is strengthening, with local manufacturers gradually replacing foreign companies in the market, particularly in the smart cockpit SOC chip sector [12]. - The industry has substantial growth potential driven by global digital transformation, 5G proliferation, AI applications, and the rise of IoT devices [14].

Core Insights - Leap Motor has emerged as a leading player in the new energy vehicle sector, achieving significant growth in revenue and profitability during a traditionally slow sales season [2][3][5] - The company reported a remarkable increase in sales volume, reaching 221,700 units in the first half of the year, and aims to sell between 580,000 to 600,000 units by year-end [3][10] - Leap Motor's strategy focuses on cost control and self-research, allowing it to offer competitive pricing and advanced features, which has resonated well with consumers [7][8][19] Financial Performance - Leap Motor's revenue surged to 15.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase from 1.1% to 14.1% year-on-year, marking a significant turnaround to profitability [7][8] - The company achieved its first half-year net profit, becoming the second new force in the industry to do so after Li Auto [2][3] Market Strategy - The company plans to challenge the sales limit of 750,000 units per month and aims for a target of 1 million units by next year, which is considered a survival threshold [4][10][14] - Leap Motor is expanding its product lineup, with new models in the B series and plans for the A and D series to cover a broader price range [15][16] Competitive Landscape - The current market environment is characterized by aggressive pricing strategies, and Leap Motor is capitalizing on this by penetrating the 150,000 yuan segment effectively [7][19] - The company is also expanding its presence in overseas markets, with plans for local assembly in Malaysia and partnerships to enhance its global footprint [18][19] Future Outlook - Leap Motor's management is optimistic about continued growth, with expectations of significant sales increases in the upcoming months [9][10] - The company is positioning itself to become a top-tier player in the global automotive industry, with ambitious long-term sales targets [11][13][19]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor, raising the target price to HKD 83.0, indicating a potential upside of 22% [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - Leap Motor's revenue for Q2 reached RMB 14.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 166% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42% [2] - The gross margin improved to 13.6%, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company achieved an operating profit of RMB 61.37 million, marking its first positive result, exceeding both internal and market expectations [2] - Net profit for Q2 was RMB 16.3 million, returning to profitability after Q1 [2] Group 2: Sales Guidance and Future Outlook - The company has raised its sales guidance for 2025, expecting Q3 vehicle sales to be between 170,000 and 180,000 units, and adjusting the annual sales target to a range of 580,000 to 650,000 units [2] - With the growth in sales volume and the completion of model transitions, there is potential for further improvement in gross margin in the second half of the year, with an annual gross margin expected to reach 14%-15% [2] - The company aims to control expenses, projecting an annual profit of RMB 500 million to 1 billion [2] Group 3: Valuation - The company is valued using a sum-of-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x for automotive sales/services and 2.0x for other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 83.0, corresponding to a target price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 83.0, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 68.15 [2][4]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales and net profit guidance for the year exceed expectations, with a target of 580,000 to 650,000 vehicles for 2025. The company anticipates significant growth in both domestic and overseas markets, supported by new model launches and partnerships [8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted annual gross margin of 14%-15% for the year, driven by increased sales volume and better product mix [8]. - The valuation methodology used is a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x for 2025 sales, leading to the target price of HKD 83.0 [8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For Q2 2025, Leap Motor reported revenue of RMB 14.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 166% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42%. The gross margin was 13.6%, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 163 million in Q2 2025, marking a return to profitability after a loss in the previous quarter [12]. - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show significant growth, with expected revenues of RMB 16.75 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 108.44 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][9]. Valuation and Market Position - The current market capitalization of Leap Motor is approximately HKD 91.11 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 472.2 million over the past three months [4]. - The report highlights that Leap Motor's current price-to-sales ratio is 1.1x, suggesting potential for revaluation as the company continues to grow [8]. - The financial forecasts indicate a steady improvement in profitability, with net losses expected to turn into profits by 2025, projecting a net profit of RMB 634 million [3][9].