Core Viewpoint - The US dollar against the Japanese yen experienced a slight increase of 0.44% to 147.66 yen, despite a weekly decline of 0.77%, indicating a W-shaped downward trend throughout the week [1] Currency Performance Summary - The euro against the Japanese yen rose by 0.36%, with a cumulative weekly increase of 0.20% [1] - The British pound against the Japanese yen fell by 0.15%, resulting in a total weekly decline of 0.66% [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.80% to close at 98.64, with a weekly high of 98.95 [1] - USD/CNY rose by 0.10% to 7.1776, while USD/CNH increased by 0.11% to 7.1802 [1] - The Chinese Yuan showed mixed performance against other currencies, with notable declines against EUR, JPY, and AUD [1] Group 2: Economic Data Focus - Key economic data releases include the US Leading Economic Index for June, expected to decline from -0.1% to -0.2% [2] - The Eurozone's manufacturing and services PMI for July are anticipated to improve, while the US manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from 52.9 to 52.5 [2][4] - The US durable goods orders for June are forecasted to decrease significantly by 10.5% after a previous increase of 16.4% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Decisions - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting, with market focus on President Lagarde's comments regarding future monetary policy [3][11] - The market anticipates that the ECB will continue to reference inflation and tariff policies in its future decisions, which could impact the Euro's value [3][11] Group 4: Currency Trends - The USD/CNY is expected to remain stable around 7.18, influenced by the performance of the US Dollar Index [9][10] - The Euro is projected to face downward pressure if the ECB signals potential rate cuts, especially with upcoming PMI data expected to show improvement [11] - The Japanese Yen is under pressure due to inflation data and impending tariffs from the US, with the USD/JPY reaching a high of 149.18 [15]

智通财经6月2日电，日元上涨1%至盘中高点，报1美元兑142.54日元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuating exchange rate of the Japanese yen is influenced by the inconsistent statements from the Trump administration regarding tariffs and currency, leading to market participants avoiding directional trading [2][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - Since April, the yen has been oscillating between 140 to 150 yen per dollar, lacking a clear direction due to the mixed signals from the Trump administration on tariffs and currency policy [2]. - The yen appreciated significantly from nearly 160 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to around 140 yen by April, marking an increase of approximately 20 yen [4]. - As of late May, speculative positions in yen against the dollar had reached historical highs but began to decrease, returning to levels seen in early April [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculative Behavior - Concerns over the outflow of U.S. investment funds have intensified, particularly in response to fears that the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies could harm the U.S. economy [2]. - The Trump administration's recent softening stance on tariffs, especially in negotiations with China and the EU, has contributed to the volatility in the yen's exchange rate [2][4]. - The upcoming expiration of the suspension of certain tariffs in early July raises questions about future negotiations and their potential impact on the yen's direction [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the Trump administration continues to weaken its stance on tariffs and the strong dollar, the yen may remain directionless and stuck in a range [6]. - Conversely, if tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk of a repeat of the "triple kill" scenario where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all face selling pressure, potentially leading to further chaos in the yen's exchange rate [6].

小栗太：特朗普政府在关税和汇率方面的言论反复不一，导致市场参与者避免倾向于单一方向的 买卖操作。失去方向感的日元汇率，今后将如何发展？有观点认为，关税问题可能会在7月4日美 国独立日告一段落…… 小栗太： 日元汇率正在徘徊不定。自4月以来，围绕1美元兑140至150日元的区间震荡，走势缺 乏明确方向。这是因为美国特朗普政府在关税和汇率方面的言论反复不一，导致市场参与者避免 倾向于单一方向的买卖操作。如果继续找不到明确的走势方向，从中长期来看，日元汇率可能陷 入胶着状态。 "在美国华尔街，关于美国投资资金外流的担忧前所未有地加剧了"，福冈金融集团首席策略师佐 佐木融在4月访问当地时如此感受到。从4月初开始，日元升值、美元贬值的趋势加快，日元汇率 一度迅速跃升至140日元左右兑1美元的水平。 这一背景是由于市场对特朗普政府强硬关税政策可能导致美国经济恶化的担忧。美国一度出现了 美元、美股和美债同时遭到抛售的"三杀"局面，对此，特朗普政府慌忙放松了加征关税的态度。 在与对美贸易顺差较大的中国和欧盟的关税谈判中，美国也转而趋于软化，开始放宽税率或延长 实施期限。 市场对特朗普政府政策的变化极为敏感。从年初以来日元汇率 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar has increased by 1% against the Swiss franc, reaching a daily high of 0.8320 [1] - The US dollar has risen by 1.5% against the Japanese yen, currently trading at 145.92 [1]

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：希望基于现有汇率协议与美国财长进行会谈 智通财经4月24日电，日本财务大臣加藤胜信表示，希望基于现有的汇率协议与美国财政部长贝森特举 行会谈。此前，贝森特称美国不会寻求特定的日元汇率目标。美日财长周四即将就汇率问题举行会谈。 此前，美国总统特朗普曾抱怨弱势日元让日本在贸易中获益，引发市场猜测美国可能向日本施压要求日 元升值。 ...

据消息人士透露，日本财政大臣加藤胜信本周在华盛顿会见美国财长贝森特时，日元汇率问题正成为讨 论的主要议题，尽管消息人士称东京将抵制任何要求提振日元的请求。 据三位了解谈判情况的消息人士透露，虽然一些分析师猜测华盛顿将向东京施压，要求其帮助提振日 元，但日本认为通过外汇干预或央行立即加息等直接行动来影响汇率的空间很小。 消息人士称，相反，日本政策制定者希望更好地了解美国在汇率问题上的想法，以及这些想法如何融入 两国为达成贸易协议将要谈判的一系列措施中。 这意味着加藤与贝森特之间的会晤（这将是他们首次面对面会谈）可能达不到一些市场参与者对于出台 旨在提振日元的大规模协调措施的期望。 分析师表示，为回应美国要求而加息，也将削弱日本央行制定货币政策的独立性，并损害央行的信誉。 一位消息人士在谈到日本关于预计举行的加藤和贝森特会晤的策略时表示："（日本）很大程度上将是 探听华盛顿的意图。" 二者的会晤将在国际货币基金组织华盛顿春季会议期间举行。 加藤周二告诉记者，两国仍在安排会晤日期。日本政策制定者表示，他们尚未收到美国关于货币政策的 任何具体要求。 美国上一次主要向日本施压要求其加强日元是在1985年，当时华盛顿在广 ...