1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The driving force for an uptrend is questionable, and it is currently regarded as range - bound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market have eased, leading to a decline in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures [2][14]. - Soybean: Affected by the fluctuations in the soybean meal spot market, it followed the downward trend [2][14]. - Corn: The trend is slightly bullish with oscillations [2][17]. - Sugar: It is in a range - bound consolidation [2][22]. - Cotton: Demand will continue to limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [2][26]. - Eggs: The spot market is weakly oscillating [2][31]. - Hogs: A phase of inventory reduction may commence [2][33]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills [2][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 1.77% increase, and the night - session was 8,310 yuan/ton with a 0.79% decrease. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,934 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session was 7,868 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [5]. - Spot: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [5]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 486 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 14.75% (AmSpec), 13.8% (ITS), and 3.6% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [6][8][9]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry urged the government to adjust import tariffs to support domestic refining capacity [9]. - According to the CFTC report, as of April 22, long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed increased, while short positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed also changed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of - 1 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE soybean 2507 closed at 4,237 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 1.42% decrease, and DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,031 yuan/ton with a 0.92% decrease [14]. - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal in Shandong was 3,750 - 3,850 yuan/ton, down 50 or 20 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On April 25, CBOT soybean futures mostly fell as China denied tariff negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of - 1 [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: C2505 closed at 2,292 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 0.39% increase, and C2507 closed at 2,336 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase [18]. - Spot: The price of Jinzhou's flat - price corn was 2,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Guangdong Shekou's corn was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Corn prices in northern ports and various regions showed an upward trend [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The main futures price was 5,974 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [22]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [22]. - **Macro and Industry News** - High - frequency information indicated drought in Guangxi, low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in Brazil's Q1 [22]. - CAOC estimated that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 1,100 million tons, consumption 1,580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons [23]. - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2509 closed at 12,990 yuan/ton during the day - session with no change, and CY2507 closed at 18,935 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [26]. - Spot: The price of 3128B cotton index was 14,224 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [26]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, and the cotton textile industry faced challenges such as insufficient orders and reduced procurement [27]. - ICE cotton closed at 68.7 cents/pound on Friday, affected by poor export data and favorable weather [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2505 closed at 3,164 yuan/500 kg with a 1.54% increase, and Egg 2509 closed at 3,818 yuan/500 kg with a 0.03% decrease [31]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Henan's spot price was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of hog 2505 was 14,115 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [35]. - Spot: The prices of hogs in Sichuan and Guangdong also decreased [35]. - **Market Logic** - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, second - fattening started, but recently, the sentiment has cooled, and a phase of inventory reduction may begin. The support level for the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: PK505 closed at 8,046 yuan/ton with a 1.52% decrease, and PK510 closed at 8,270 yuan/ton with a 0.78% increase [38]. - Spot: The prices of peanuts in various regions were relatively stable [38][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].

Report Overview - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series - Report Date: March 28, 2025 - Reported Industries: Iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, glass 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Intensified long-short game, wide-range oscillation [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Improved sentiment, short-term rebound [2]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Resonance in the black futures market, wide-range oscillation [2]. - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating at low levels [2]. - Thermal coal: Slow release of demand, weak operation [2]. - Glass: Stable prices of original sheets [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2505 futures was 789.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan or 1.15%. The position decreased by 715 lots to 412,123 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores generally rose. The basis for I2505 against Super Special decreased by 2.4 yuan to 67.1 yuan [5]. - **News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 0.3% [5]. - **Trend Strength**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2505 and HC2505 futures were 3,208 yuan/ton and 3,381 yuan/ton, down 0.19% and 0.12% respectively. Rebar trading volume was 1,477,756 lots, and hot-rolled coil trading volume was 470,455 lots. Spot prices generally declined. The basis for RB2505 decreased by 19 yuan to 32 yuan, and the basis for HC2505 decreased by 5 yuan to -11 yuan [7]. - **News**: On March 28, steel output increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. From January to February, total social electricity consumption increased by 1.3% year-on-year [8]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a bullish outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2504 and 2505 futures were 5,974 yuan/ton and 6,002 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan and 18 yuan respectively. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2504 and 2505 futures were 6,274 yuan/ton and 6,130 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan each. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained stable [11]. - **News**: On March 27, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The production of silicomanganese in northern regions in March decreased compared to February [12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of JM2505 and J2505 futures were 1,035 yuan/ton and 1,637.5 yuan/ton, up 0.93% and 1.36% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. The basis for JM2505 against Meng 5 decreased by 12 yuan to 48 yuan, and the basis for J2505 against Shanxi quasi-primary coke increased by 212.5 yuan to -240.5 yuan [14]. - **News**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index were released. On March 27, the long and short positions of JM2505 and J2505 decreased [14][15][16]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2504 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. Southern port and domestic production area prices were released. On March 27, the long and short positions of ZC2504 did not change [19][20]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of FG505 futures was 1,236 yuan/ton, down 0.96%. The trading volume was 2,256,780 lots, and the position increased by 54,786 lots. The basis for the 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan to -96 yuan, and the 05 - 09 contract spread increased by 11 yuan to -31 yuan. Spot prices in some regions decreased [22]. - **News**: The prices of domestic float glass original sheets were stable with local loosening. The futures price weakened, and downstream orders were limited [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 1, indicating a bullish outlook [23].