Core Viewpoint - Japan's core inflation rate in July has slowed for the second consecutive month but remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, leading to market expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the coming months [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - In July, the nationwide core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing the market forecast of 3.0% [1] - This increase is lower than June's 3.3% rise, indicating a deceleration in inflation [1] - Another index, which excludes fresh food and fuel costs, increased by 3.4% year-on-year in July, a key measure closely monitored by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The persistent rise in food and raw material prices has kept Japan's core inflation rate above the central bank's target for over three years [1] - Concerns among policymakers are growing regarding the potential for second-round price effects due to sustained inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has increased significantly from 2.3% last year to 15.2%, marking the highest level since World War II [3] - The new tariff policy has led to increased costs for U.S. automakers, with Ford reporting an $800 million loss due to tariffs in Q2 2025, General Motors losing $1.1 billion, and Stellantis losing $350 million [15] - The retail industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to rising import costs, with retailers forced to stockpile goods primarily from China to mitigate short-term pressures [17][18] Group 2 - The new tariffs have resulted in a significant increase in trade barriers, leading to a collapse of the global trade system and a reconfiguration of multinational production and trade costs [6] - The tariffs are expected to trigger inflationary pressures in the U.S., with core inflation rising to 3.2% by June 2025, affecting consumer spending habits [20] - The global supply chain is experiencing a shift away from the U.S., with countries accelerating multilateral cooperation and seeking new trade partnerships in response to U.S. tariff policies [22][25]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for July is reported at 2.0% year-on-year, unchanged from June, aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1] - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.3%, service prices rose by 3.1%, and non-energy industrial goods prices went up by 0.8%, while energy prices decreased by 2.5% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remains steady at 2.3% for July, consistent with June [1] Group 2 - Major Eurozone economies reported varying inflation rates for July: Germany at 1.8%, France at 0.9%, Italy at 1.7%, and Spain at 2.7% [1] - The European Central Bank noted that the inflation rate has reached the 2% medium-term target, with most long-term inflation expectations also around 2%, supporting price stability [1] - The chief economist of ING, Bert Colijn, indicated that the short-term inflation environment in the Eurozone is relatively mild, which helps maintain price stability, but global trade tensions pose a risk of renewed inflation [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting, highlighting the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and the distorting effects of tariffs [1] - Despite fluctuations in overall GDP data, actual economic growth is gradually slowing under persistent uncertainty, with tariffs expected to rise further, impacting consumer prices by the end of the year [1] - Nuveen forecasts that U.S. economic growth will continue to slow but can avoid recession, with a projected core inflation rate of around 3.0% in 2025, potentially suppressing real income growth and overall economic performance [1] Group 2 - In fixed income, municipal bonds offer attractive yields and income advantages, remaining appealing even amid ongoing market volatility [2] - Nuveen sees investment value in preferred loans, currently yielding between 6.5% and 8%, with significant market opportunities available [2] - A substantial amount of loans, totaling $225 billion, is trading below $95, with an average price around $85 and a three-year maturity yield of approximately 16% [2]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：核心通胀率高企促使央行暂停降息。 ...

预计三季通胀率为1.8%，核心通胀率为3.1%。 加拿大央行：预计在当前的关税下，二季度GDP萎缩1.5%，三季度GDP增长1%。 人口增长乏力及投资疲软将制约加拿大下半年经济表现。 2025年下半年及2026年消费增长或持续温和。 在新贸易环境下，预计加拿大下半年出口有望"企稳"。 ...

加拿大央行：预计第三季度通胀率+1.8%，核心通胀率+3.1%。 ...

彭博社调查显示，经济学家普遍预计，截至2026年初，央行还将再降息三次。部分分析师指出，近期就 业市场疲软是值得担忧的因素之一——本月早些时候的数据显示，澳大利亚6月失业率从5月的4.1%升 至4.3%，创四年新高。 就业数据公布后，央行行长米歇尔·布洛克上周表示，当前失业率与央行5月的预测相符，并补充称，货 币政策委员会认为"渐进、审慎"的宽松节奏是合适的。 市场将密切关注澳大利亚央行对此次通胀报告的解读——副行长安德鲁·豪泽将于周四在悉尼的一场"炉 边谈话"活动中发表讲话。 智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚6月当季核心通胀率有所回落。随着物价压力缓解的迹象日益明显，这为 澳大利亚央行最早于8月启动货币政策宽松提供了更充分的理由。澳大利亚统计局周三发布的数据显 示，备受关注的"截尾均值"消费者价格指数(剔除波动性较大的项目)在二季度环比上涨0.6%，低于预期 的0.7%;同比上涨2.7%，符合预期，较一季度的2.9%有所下降。 由于政府补贴压低了整体通胀数据，模糊了对经济整体物价压力的判断，因此澳大利亚央行更关注核心 通胀指标。核心通胀率在一季度才刚刚回落至央行2%-3%的目标区间，如今进一步下行，意味着政策制 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，澳大利亚CPI报告中的关键数据是核心通胀率，从第一季度的2.9%下降到第二季 度的2.7%。Betashares首席经济学家David Bassanese表示，这反映了商品、服务和住房相关通胀的普遍 缓解。尽管这一结果比澳洲联储5月份预测的2.6%略高，但已经足够接近目标，8月份的降息现在看来 是板上钉钉的事了。 澳大利亚核心通胀数据接近目标，8月降息成大概率事件 ...

新加坡金管局维持新加坡元汇率区间的斜率、宽度和中点不变。 新加坡金管局预计2025年核心通胀率为0.5%-1.5%。 ...