Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing significant divergence, with core cities showing signs of recovery while lower-tier cities face challenges [2][3][4] - The market is no longer characterized by a uniform trend; instead, it reflects localized dynamics where different cities and even neighborhoods exhibit varying performance [3][4] - The shift in buyer sentiment has moved from fear of rising prices to fear of making the wrong purchase, leading to prolonged decision-making processes [12][15] Market Performance - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, there has been a structural recovery in the real estate market, with Beijing's second-hand home transactions reaching nearly 20,000 units in March 2025, a 62% increase month-on-month [5] - Shanghai saw a 75% month-on-month increase in transactions, with 26,300 units sold, marking a 44-month high [5][6] - However, this recovery is characterized by "price for volume" strategies, where only well-priced and desirable properties are selling quickly [7][9] Buyer Behavior - Buyers are increasingly focused on the "living value" of properties rather than speculative price increases, indicating a return to practical considerations in home buying [9][12] - The average decision-making period for buyers has extended by nearly a month, reflecting a more cautious approach to purchasing [15] Regional Disparities - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities are struggling, with a housing price-to-income ratio of 7.4, indicating that it takes an average family 7.4 years of disposable income to purchase a home [10] - The supply-demand imbalance in these cities is exacerbated by population outflows and insufficient industrial support, leading to high inventory levels [11] Land Acquisition Trends - Nationally, the top 100 real estate companies' land acquisition totaled 727.8 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a 36.7% increase year-on-year, but concentrated in first-tier cities [11] - Developers are focusing on areas with population inflows and strong GDP growth, avoiding less desirable locations [11] Policy Environment - Recent policy changes, such as lower mortgage rates and reduced down payment requirements, are aimed at stimulating the housing market [17][18] - These changes are particularly beneficial for first-time buyers, who can now access lower down payment options and reduced monthly payments [20] Investment Considerations - The investment landscape has shifted, with a focus on quality properties in core urban areas, as the era of guaranteed profits from real estate investments has ended [22][24] - Investors are advised to carefully assess holding costs and market conditions before making purchases, as the market is no longer driven by speculative trends [21][24]

Core Insights - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged at 3.00% for 1-year and 3.50% for over 5 years, indicating a cautious approach in monetary policy [3] - The real estate market is experiencing significant price disparities, with some areas seeing price differences exceeding 6 times [8][11] - Recent sales data shows a strong performance in the Xiamen real estate market, particularly in the Tong'an district, where the average price is significantly lower compared to other districts [5][11] Market Overview - The A-share market has surpassed 3800 points, while gold prices have surged past $4000 per ounce, reflecting a broader trend of rising asset prices globally [2] - In Japan, average housing prices in core areas have increased by 17%, with Tokyo's 23 wards averaging over 70,000 RMB per square meter [2] - Vietnam's housing market is also experiencing rapid price increases, with high demand evident in sales offices [2] Xiamen Real Estate Dynamics - The Xiamen real estate market is characterized by a "dual city" phenomenon, with stark contrasts in pricing and sales performance between different districts [5] - The top-selling project, Zhonghai Huanyunqi, achieved 121 units sold at an average price of 23,571 RMB per square meter, showcasing a remarkable sales velocity [5][8] - The price structure is being redefined, with the highest tier in Siming District reaching 86,058 RMB per square meter, while the lowest tier in Tong'an District is around 13,697 RMB per square meter [8][11] Buyer Behavior and Market Segmentation - The purchasing logic in the market has shifted, with buyers now more selectively choosing properties based on price and location [12] - Improvement buyers are showing cautious preferences between island and non-island properties, with notable sales in the mid-range price segments [13] - For first-time buyers, properties in Tong'an and Xiamen districts are becoming more accessible, with prices as low as 13,697 RMB per square meter [14]

Core Insights - The delayed release of the 70-city housing price report has led to speculation about the state of the housing market, particularly concerns over poor data [1][3] - The September data shows a continued decline in housing prices, with new homes in first-tier cities down 0.3% and second-hand homes down 1.0% month-on-month, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization [3][5] Summary by Category Housing Market Trends - The September report indicates a month-on-month decline in housing prices across various cities, with first-tier cities experiencing a slight decrease [3] - Year-on-year declines are showing signs of narrowing, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [3][4] Market Dynamics - The housing market is no longer characterized by uniform price movements; instead, there is a clear differentiation between first-tier and third-tier cities, influenced by population inflows and economic factors [3][5] - For instance, while new home prices in Shanghai increased by 0.3%, Shenzhen saw a decline of 1.0%, highlighting the impact of local demographics and industry [3] Investor Sentiment - The delay in data release should not be interpreted as a sign of significant market issues; rather, it reflects routine statistical adjustments [4] - Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term trends and local population dynamics rather than short-term fluctuations in housing prices [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional belief that real estate is the only path to wealth accumulation is being challenged as China transitions to a new economic phase, marking the end of a golden era for the housing market and the onset of a harsh era of differentiation [1] Group 1: End of Universal Price Increase - The foundation for universal price increases in the housing market, which relied on a large population dividend and rapid monetary expansion, has fundamentally changed [2] - China's total population has entered a phase of negative growth, and aging is accelerating, leading to a continuous decline in housing demand nationwide [2] - Only cities that can attract young labor and high-net-worth individuals will sustain property value [2] Group 2: Asset Differentiation - The criteria for measuring property value have fundamentally changed, necessitating the identification of true core assets to avoid liquidity traps [4] - The core of the value triangle remains location, but it now refers to areas with scarce resources rather than just city centers [5] Group 3: Key Factors for Core Assets - Top-tier educational and medical resources are crucial, as properties in quality school districts and near top hospitals exhibit strong resilience and scarcity premiums [6] - Proximity to high-paying job centers, such as tech parks and financial hubs, ensures stable rental returns and higher liquidity [6] - The quality of the property and the level of property management are critical in the era of existing stock, with poorly constructed and older properties facing greater depreciation risks [6] Group 4: Cash Flow Challenges - The rapid increase in property prices previously masked the risks associated with holding costs and high debt levels, which are now magnified in a sluggish market [7] - High loan-to-income ratios increase the risk of default during income fluctuations or unemployment, making cash flow stability more important than high leverage [8] - Holding costs, including property fees, maintenance costs, and potential future property taxes, will significantly impact net returns, especially for properties that do not generate stable rental income [8] Group 5: Strategic Shift - Ordinary individuals must evolve their investment mindset into an asset allocation mindset in response to the new normal in the housing market [9] - It is essential to optimize asset structure by discarding properties lacking industrial and population support and replacing them with core location assets that have strong growth potential [10] - Reducing leverage while ensuring core assets are maintained will enhance risk resilience through increased cash reserves and low-risk financial asset allocations [10] - A long-term perspective is necessary, as the housing market cycle is lengthening, and only investments in properties linked to China's best growth engines will preserve and enhance family wealth over time [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has reiterated the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a slight recovery in September, particularly in core cities, despite overall market activity remaining below last year's levels during the National Day holiday [1][11]. Market Performance - In September, new home sales in Beijing reached 460,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 21% and a year-on-year increase of 22%. During the National Day holiday, daily new home sales averaged 6,100 square meters, up 52% from last year [3]. - Shanghai's new home sales in September were 970,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 16%. Daily new home sales during the holiday averaged 6,200 square meters, a slight increase of 3% from last year [4]. - Shenzhen saw a daily new home sales average of 2,300 square meters during the holiday, a 22% increase compared to last year, following a 44% month-on-month increase in September [4]. - Guangzhou's new home sales in September were 5,258 units, with a month-on-month increase of 18% and a year-on-year increase of 10%. However, daily sales during the holiday averaged 8,100 square meters, a slight decrease of 4% from last year [4]. - In Hangzhou, 575 new units were launched during the holiday, with high demand for core area projects, although overall market activity was still below last year's levels [3][5]. Marketing Strategies - Developers in major cities have employed various promotional strategies, including discounts, special offers, and marketing events, to stimulate sales during the holiday period [2][3][5]. - In cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, developers have focused on price reductions and promotional activities to enhance sales performance, particularly in core areas [2][3]. Land Market Trends - The residential land market has seen a decrease in transaction volume, with September's land sales down 3.3% year-on-year, and total land sales revenue down 8.8% [8]. - The average premium rate for land sales in September dropped to 3.8%, indicating a cautious approach from developers in acquiring new land [8]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue showing signs of differentiation, with core city projects maintaining higher demand while peripheral areas face challenges [11]. - The introduction of new quality projects in core cities is anticipated to support new home sales in the fourth quarter [11].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the real estate market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday was relatively flat, but high-quality projects in core cities maintained strong interest, indicating a differentiated market trend [1] Market Performance - During the holiday, the average daily transaction area of new residential properties in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai increased by 52%, 22%, and 3% year-on-year, reaching 0.61 million square meters, 0.6 million square meters, and 0.62 million square meters respectively [1] - Conversely, cities like Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw a decline in average daily transaction areas, with Guangzhou down 4% to 0.81 million square meters, Hangzhou down significantly, and Chengdu down 5% to 0.29 million square meters [1] Online Search Trends - The online search heat for new homes in 60 key cities during the National Day period in 2025 averaged 69.8, a 44.1% decrease compared to the previous year, reflecting a downward trend over the past three years [2] - The decline in online search heat is attributed to high base effects from last year's market improvement driven by significant policy changes [2] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to transition from "volatile decline" to "steady" as policies such as optimizing housing fund support and purchase subsidies are implemented to stimulate demand [3] - An increase in new supply from major developers in core cities is anticipated in the fourth quarter, which may support new home sales [3] - The second-hand housing market has shown significant recovery in September, with expectations for continued moderate increases in transaction activity in October, although the trend of "price for volume" is likely to persist in the short term [3] - The fourth quarter is projected to be a peak trading season, with developers likely to enhance supply and promotional policies to boost sales [3]

Core Insights - The dual holiday period (October 1-8) saw a notable increase in customer visits and transaction volumes in the Shanghai real estate market, despite a general decline in customer footfall due to travel [1][2][3] - New promotional strategies by various developers, including "11 project linkage" by Poly Developments, successfully attracted buyers, resulting in significant sales figures [2][3] - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai experienced a substantial decline in transaction volume compared to the previous year, with a drop of over 63% during the holiday period [4][5] New Housing Market - Multiple new projects launched promotional activities during the holiday, combining incentives and interactive events to attract buyers, leading to increased customer engagement and sales [2][3] - Poly Developments reported over 4,000 customer visits and a transaction volume of 1.28 billion yuan during the holiday [2] - The "six project linkage" strategy by China National Trade also contributed to increased customer traffic and sales [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai remained sluggish, with only 780 transactions recorded during the holiday, a significant drop from 2,133 transactions in the same period last year [4][5] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes was only 111 units, indicating a prolonged negotiation period between buyers and sellers [4][5] - Despite the decline, the overall resilience of the second-hand market was noted, with a year-to-date increase in transactions compared to the previous year [5] Market Outlook - The real estate market in Shanghai is expected to remain cautiously optimistic for the fourth quarter, driven by the recovery in the new housing market and upcoming supply plans [6][8] - Recent policy changes, including the "Six Policies" aimed at addressing structural issues in the market, have positively impacted sales and customer visits [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while the market is stabilizing, further policy adjustments may not be necessary, with expectations leaning towards a potential reduction in LPR (Loan Prime Rate) [9]

Core Insights - The overall real estate market in China continues to adjust, with the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 14 key cities dropping by nearly 30% year-on-year during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday [1][2] - Core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintain high market activity, while many second and third-tier cities show a significant decline, highlighting the structural characteristics of the current real estate market [1][2] Market Performance - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in the 14 key cities during the holiday was 449 units, a decrease of 27.2% compared to last year [2] - In Beijing, the average daily transaction volume of new residential properties increased by 52% year-on-year during the holiday, while second-hand homes saw a 73% increase [2][3] - Shanghai's new residential properties experienced a slight increase of 3% in daily transactions compared to last year [4] Policy Impact - Beijing implemented policies to stimulate the market, including relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing loan limits, which led to a 21% month-on-month increase in new home transactions in September [3] - Shanghai's new policies included removing purchase limits for eligible buyers and adjusting mortgage rates, resulting in a 23% month-on-month increase in new home transactions [3][4] - Shenzhen's new regulations led to a 44% month-on-month increase in new home transactions, although year-on-year growth was only 1% due to high base effects [4] Market Differentiation - The market is experiencing increasing differentiation, with over 470 policies introduced nationwide this year, primarily benefiting core cities [6] - Major real estate companies are cautiously acquiring land in core cities, with significant land transaction amounts reported in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing [6][7] - Analysts predict that new supply in core cities may support new home sales, while cities with limited new projects will focus on inventory reduction [7] Future Outlook - The upcoming policies are expected to maintain a loose stance, aiming to stabilize the market and accelerate the implementation of existing measures [7] - The 20th Central Committee's upcoming meeting may provide direction for the real estate sector's development over the next five years [7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China has shown significant declines in transaction volumes during the "Golden Week" of October, with 23 cities experiencing a year-on-year drop of 49% in sales [3] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have seen contrasting trends, with new home sales increasing despite overall market weakness [6][9] Market Performance - Transaction volumes in cities such as Shenzhen (-76%), Xiamen (-71%), Hangzhou (-61%), and Dongguan (-60%) have seen substantial declines compared to last year [3] - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in Beijing increased by 52% during the holiday period, while Shanghai's new home sales saw a slight increase of 3% [6][7] Policy Impact - Recent policy adjustments in major cities have led to a reduction in purchasing thresholds, which has positively influenced new home sales in core cities [4][5] - The "9.26 new policy" introduced last year aimed to stabilize the market, but this year's high base from last year's performance has contributed to the current decline in transaction volumes [3] City-Specific Trends - In Beijing, new home sales reached 0.61 million square meters daily during the holiday, marking a 52% increase year-on-year [6] - Shanghai's second-hand home market has seen a significant drop, with a 53% decrease in transactions compared to the previous year [7] - Shenzhen's new home sales increased by 22% during the holiday, attributed to relaxed purchasing policies and promotional activities by developers [9] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue showing a divided performance, with core cities likely to see better sales due to new projects entering the market [10] - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will see improved transaction activity compared to the third quarter, driven by developers' efforts to meet annual sales targets and potential policy support [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing real estate market has shown vitality during the National Day holiday, continuing the recovery trend observed after the new policies in August, although a divergence in project performance is expected to persist [1][4]. Market Performance - During the National Day holiday, the new housing market in Beijing maintained a positive trend, with some popular projects receiving over 100 daily visits [2]. - The Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan project reported approximately 5.6 billion yuan in sales during the holiday, with 573 units sold on the opening day [2]. - In contrast, the Huayu Jingyun project experienced slower sales, with only about 20 units sold during the holiday, attributed to its less favorable timing compared to other projects [2][3]. Project Analysis - The Yunqing Lanyue project has been successful due to the lack of competition in the area, while the Huayu Jingyun project struggled to attract buyers from outside the main city [3]. - The market is characterized by a significant disparity, with 20% of projects accounting for 80% of sales, indicating a clear divide between high-performing and underperforming developments [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will continue to show signs of divergence, with core cities benefiting from policy adjustments and increased supply [5][6]. - The overall market is expected to maintain relative heat in October, but not to the extent seen after the new policies in 2024, with a potential decline in transaction volumes compared to previous years [5][6]. - The introduction of promotional activities by developers during the holiday period, such as discounts and incentives, aims to boost sales in a still-recovering market [6].