化工日报 | 2026-01-21 我国12月天然橡胶进口量继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15620元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨；NR主力合约12550元/吨，较前一日变动-105 元/吨；BR主力合约11585元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15400元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14750元/吨，较前一 日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1880美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR - RU spread is the best tool to reflect the supply difference in the rubber sector, offsetting most macro and consumption disturbances and highlighting the supply differences between synthetic and natural rubber [58]. - The ENSO index suggests that in the first half of 2026, natural rubber supply is likely to increase, putting downward pressure on RU. The fixed - asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry indicates limited production pressure, and BR is expected to stabilize [58]. - As of the end of 2025, the absolute spread of BR - RU has reached a stage low. Before the third quarter of 2026, a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber is recommended [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Comprehensive Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The price center of RMB - denominated rubber has generally risen. The price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 115 yuan to 15,750 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase. The price of Shandong STR20 mixed rubber rose by 166.5 yuan to 15,069 yuan/ton, a 1.12% increase. The price of North China BR9000 first rose rapidly and then fell, closing at 11,500 yuan/ton on Thursday, down 100 yuan from last Thursday, but the weekly average price of 11,510 yuan was still 230 yuan higher, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to around 17% [2]. - **Supply**: For natural rubber, domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping. Overseas, the tapping season in northern Thailand and Vietnam is coming to an end, and only southern Thailand is in the peak production stage, showing a pattern of "decreasing supply at home and increasing supply abroad". For cis - polybutadiene rubber, the average operating rate of domestic high - cis cis - polybutadiene plants was 75.9%, the same as last week. The overall output was stable [2]. - **Demand**: After the festival, the operating rate of tire factories increased, and rigid demand procurement rose. However, the rising price center suppressed buying sentiment, and there was only limited replenishment on dips during the week, with limited real - deal follow - up [3]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.96 million tons to 563,900 tons, a 3.6% increase. The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber in production enterprises decreased by 3.24% month - on - month, but the social inventory increased slightly. The overall inventory level was still lower than the same period last year [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - sided Trading**: Hold short positions in the RU main 05 contract, with the stop - loss price lowered to the recent high of 16,115 points. Try short positions in the NR main 03 contract at an appropriate time, with a stop - loss set at the recent high of 12,970 points. Try a small number of short positions in the BR main 03 contract, with a stop - loss set at the previous low of 11,945 points [4]. - **Arbitrage**: The spread of BR2603 - NR2603 (2 lots vs. 1 lot) closed at - 850 points. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the support at the recent low of - 945 points [4]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Supply - **Apparent Consumption**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of butadiene increased to 556,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. The apparent consumption of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased to 131,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The net import volume of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased year - on - year, which was slightly positive for the BR - RU spread [14][16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber increased to 34,900 tons, a 5.50% month - on - month increase. Due to strong downstream resistance to high - price raw materials, the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased to varying degrees [18]. - **Supply Scale and Cost Support**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of BR&BR (calculated) increased to 3.28 million tons. In January, the explicit inventory of BD&BR increased for five consecutive months to 47,000 tons. The combined figure of the above two items was 375,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, which was positive for the BR - RU spread. In January, the price of Brent crude oil fell for four consecutive months to $60.8 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 25.4%, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [27]. - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The profit of the C4 extraction process was 2,376 yuan/ton, an increase of 234 yuan/ton from the previous period. The profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process was 681 yuan/ton, an increase of 595 yuan/ton from the previous period. The theoretical production cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber increased significantly, and the production profit decreased [37]. - **Processing Margin**: In January, the margin of domestic butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation plants improved for two consecutive months to - 50 yuan/ton, and the margin of domestic butadiene C4 extraction method increased for two consecutive months to 1,877 yuan/ton. The domestic production margin of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased for two consecutive months to 211 yuan/ton. The BD margin - BR margin was reported at + 0.17 million yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of - 0.37 million yuan/ton, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [41][45]. - **Margin Variance and Import Margin**: In January, the FOB price of butadiene in South Korea and the CFR price in China both increased for two consecutive months. The margin of BD to South Korea was reported at - 35.0 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of + 7.5 US dollars/ton, which was positive for the BR - RU spread. The variance of the three margins was reported at 7.3×10^5, a year - on - year decline of - 188.2%, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [52]. 3.4 Rubber Supply: Synthetic Rubber Production vs. Natural Rubber Climate - Although the valuation of the chemical industry has been under pressure due to oversupply during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the BR - RU spread can reflect the supply difference in the rubber sector. The ENSO index is favorable for the increase of natural rubber supply in the first half of 2026, and the fixed - asset investment in the chemical industry indicates limited production pressure on synthetic rubber. Before the third quarter of 2026, a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber is recommended [58]. 3.5 Natural Rubber Supply: ANRPC Member Countries' Production and Export - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 1.144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% with a narrowing growth rate. The total export volume increased to 826,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% with a narrowing growth rate for four consecutive months [64]. 3.6 Micro - consumption - The average year - on - year production increase of automobiles in China and South Korea was 7.7%, which was positive for the single - sided trading of BR. In November, the export value of domestic tires increased to 1.82 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, which was negative for the single - sided trading of BR [65][70]. 3.7 Micro - consumption: Tires - The semi - steel tire market was weak, with sufficient supply and mainly rigid - demand replenishment in the channel. The all - steel tire market continued to be weak, with low purchasing willingness among merchants. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days and a year - on - year increase of 5.49 days. The average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 days [77]. 3.8 Macro - consumption - In a series of data affecting the downstream consumption of the rubber sector, the data farther away from rubber had larger increases, while the data closer to rubber had not yet stabilized. For example, the CSI 1000 index declined for two consecutive months but still had a year - on - year increase, the global auto industry index rebounded for two consecutive months with a narrowing growth rate, the domestic rubber and plastic industry electricity consumption declined with a narrowing growth rate, and the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased year - on - year with a marginal increase for two consecutive months [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR: Neutral [12] - BR: Cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - RU and NR prices are expected to stabilize slightly this week with the recovery of tire factory operating rates, but the pressure of domestic arrivals will suppress spot prices, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue in China. The cost - end support for rubber is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12]. - BR is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material prices and maintain a relatively strong trend. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream demand has no obvious highlights [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Heavy - truck market**: In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the heavy - truck market achieved nine consecutive months of growth from April to December, with an average growth rate of up to 41% [2]. - **Natural rubber imports**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2]. - **Global natural rubber production and consumption**: ANRPC predicted that in November 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [2]. - **Automobile tire exports**: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3]. - **Automobile production and sales**: In November, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a new historical high [4]. - **Côte d'Ivoire natural rubber exports**: In 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 1.98 million tons, a 13.4% increase compared to 1.74 million tons in the same period of 2024 [5]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and spreads**: On January 12, 2026, the RU basis was - 330 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,000 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton); the NR basis was 451.00 yuan/ton (up 7.00 yuan/ton); whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton); 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars/ton); the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) [6]. - **Raw materials**: Thai smoked sheets were 60.09 Thai baht/kg (down 0.13 Thai baht/kg); Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg); Thai cup lump was 52.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged); the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg) [7]. - **Operating rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 55.50% (down 2.43%); the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 63.78% (down 2.75%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (up 19,829 tons); the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,232,533 tons (up 30,677 tons); the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (up 3,900 tons); the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (down 1,007 tons) [8]. Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and spreads**: On January 12, 2026, the BR basis was - 270 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton); the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 443 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Operating rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.15% (up 1.97%) [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,770 tons (down 410 tons); the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons (up 50 tons) [11].

化工日报 | 2026-01-09 下游轮胎开工率继续示弱 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16120元/吨，较前一日变动-60元/吨；NR主力合约13065元/吨，较前一日变动-85 元/吨；BR主力合约12195元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15800元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15080元/吨，较前一 日变动-20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1920美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1865 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11950元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月下降1.5%；天胶消费量 料降1.4%至124.8万吨，较上月下降0.9%。前11个月，全球天胶累计产量料增2%至1337.5万吨，累计消费量料降1.7% 至1393.2万吨。 据隆众资讯了解，上周期，轮胎样本企业产能利用率走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the natural rubber market is affected by macro factors and is expected to follow the overall trend of the energy - chemical sector. After the holiday, the weather in overseas main producing areas is expected to improve, increasing supply and weakening cost support. Although downstream enterprises plan for short - term maintenance during the holiday and the spot inventory is continuously accumulating, the return of funds after the holiday and the impact of the external market during the holiday may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a 0.6% year - on - year decrease in exports to China. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, with a 24% year - on - year increase in exports to China. The implementation details of the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy were released, expanding the scope of support [5][7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared to the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price - Related - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of whole milk - RU05 and the 05 - 09 calendar spread both increased, with a 26.04% and 100.00% increase respectively compared to the previous period [12]. - **Other Spreads**: Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased. The basis of non - standard rubber strengthened, and the spreads between whole milk - Thai mixed rubber and 3L - Thai mixed rubber expanded [17][20][23]. - **Substitute Prices**: The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, continued to rise, providing bottom support for the short - term market price [30]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared to the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [33][35]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weather**: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching the end, and the rainfall is decreasing. The rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [38][40]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Due to the缓解 of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices have fallen [42]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The water - cup spread in Thailand has expanded, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole milk factories has remained stable [46]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices fall, the rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally improved [49]. - **Delivery Profits**: The delivery profit in Hainan has decreased, and the data in Yunnan has stopped updating due to the suspension of tapping [53]. - **Exports**: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber. The exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - month due to a sharp decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China rebounded seasonally, with a large increase in standard rubber and latex exports. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased significantly [60][66][72]. - **Imports**: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 643,600 tons, a 25.98% increase month - on - month and a 14.76% increase year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. - **Demand** - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some tire enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and the tire inventory continued to accumulate last week [81]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with an accelerated growth rate. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - month growth rate continued to decline. Tire exports improved slightly month - on - month [84]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In November 2025, the freight turnover of road transport rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. - **Inventory** - **Spot Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The increase in Qingdao's inventory slowed down compared to the previous period, mainly due to a 7.8% decrease in the warehousing volume of sample warehouses and some tire enterprises' procurement before the festival. The inventory in Yunnan continued to accumulate [94]. - **Futures Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 100,600 tons, a 7.09% increase compared to the previous week, and the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 58,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous week [100]. This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of December 31, there was no data on raw material prices in Thailand due to the holiday. The price of Hainan glue for whole milk production was 15,000 yuan/ton, and the price for concentrated latex production was also 15,000 yuan/ton. As of December 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.201 million tons, a 1.7% increase compared to the previous period [104]. - **Demand**: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and most enterprises maintained normal production, adjusting according to their own inventory and order situations [104]. - **View**: After the holiday, the supply in overseas main producing areas is expected to increase, weakening cost support. Although the downstream inventory is accumulating and enterprises are having maintenance, the return of funds and the external market impact may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger. The recommended strategies are to wait and see for RU and look for short - selling opportunities when the price is high, and to observe for cross - period and cross - variety trading [104][105].

化工日报 | 2025-12-30 青岛港口库存继续回升 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1875美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11300元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传化 BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月下降1.5%；天胶消费量 料降1.4%至124.8万吨，较上月下降0.9%。前11个月，全球天胶累计产量料增2%至1337.5万吨，累计消费量料降1.7% 至1393.2万吨。 据隆众资讯了解，目前半 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-26 下游轮胎开工率涨跌互现，总体表现一般 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15730元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨；NR主力合约12695元/吨，较前一日变动+80 元/吨；BR主力合约11285元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15300元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14800元/吨，较前一 日变动+20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1880美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11100元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [11] - The rating for BR is neutral [11] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the domestic supply is increasing slowly, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports and in society. Although the cost - end support is strong, the supply is likely to recover, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, making it difficult for the factory's operating rate to rise [11] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply will remain abundant, the downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. However, the upstream raw material cost support may continue [11] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,650 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,615 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,395 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information Import Volume - In November 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Production and Consumption - According to the ANRPC's November 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in November was expected to drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% drop from the previous month; the consumption was expected to drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% drop from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the global cumulative natural rubber production was expected to increase 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to drop 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] Tire Market - The supply of semi - steel all - season tires was relatively sufficient, and the market was mainly digesting previous inventories with a slower shipment pace. There was a shortage of some specifications, but weak demand suppressed the market's purchasing sentiment. The supply of semi - steel snow tires in the distribution channels was sufficient, and it was in the terminal inventory - reduction stage, waiting for more snowfall to release replacement demand. Overall, the market transactions were dull, and prices were weak [2] Heavy - Truck Sales - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - truck market this year [3] Automobile Production and Sales - In November, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On December 24, 2025, the RU basis was - 400 yuan/ton (- 60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 870 yuan/ton (+ 100), the NR basis was 528.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 300), the price of mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton (+ 260), the price of 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (+ 200). The STR20 was quoted at 1,865 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,480 yuan/ton (+ 160) [5] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.22 Thai baht/kg (- 0.03), the price of Thai latex was 55.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.80 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50) [6] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.61% (- 0.94%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.01% (- 0.13%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 515,227 tons (+ 16,339), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+ 29,327), the RU futures inventory was 87,160 tons (+ 30,170), and the NR futures inventory was 58,968 tons (- 605) [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On December 24, 2025, the BR basis was - 445 yuan/ton (- 170), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,630 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,303 yuan/ton (+ 14) [8] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.26% (+ 5.58%) [9] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber among traders was 5,690 tons (- 720), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber among enterprises was 28,850 tons (+ 1,250) [10] Strategy Natural Rubber (RU and NR) - With the domestic Hainan production area approaching the end of the tapping season, the supply increase is slow. Although the far - month price of blended rubber has strengthened, the near - month price is average, and the basis is weakly stable. The continuous inventory accumulation at ports and in society, combined with the off - season of downstream demand, makes it difficult for the factory's operating rate to rise. The cost - end support is strong, but the supply is likely to recover [11] Cis - Butadiene Rubber (BR) - With less upstream maintenance, the supply of cis - butadiene rubber will remain abundant. Downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. The self - supply - and - demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber remains weak, but the upstream raw material cost support may continue [11]

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化工日报 | 2025-12-16 青岛港口天然橡胶库存继续增加 据隆众资讯了解，进入12月份全钢胎交投表现平淡，受季节性淡季影响，市场需求进一步转弱，市场货源相对充 足情况下，渠道以及终端门店消化现有库存为主，进货积极性一般，市场成交价格稳中趋弱，为增加销量及回收 资金，部分商家根据自身库存情况有促销行为。 2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新 的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达 58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽车轮胎出口量为685万吨，同比增长3.3%；出口金额为1158亿元，同比增长2.1%。 2025年10月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量51.08万吨，环比减 少14.27%，同比减少0.9%，2025年1-10月累计进口数量522.81万吨，累计同比增加17.27%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前三个季度，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为199.3万吨，同比降8%。其 ...