1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, resulting in a short - term shock - strengthening pattern. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell. The short - term shock - strengthening pattern is due to factors such as the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, high demand in the short - term, and low inventory. The price range for RM2601 is expected to be between 2540 and 2600. [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and import deposit collection has begun. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodity prices. [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, the spot is at a premium to the futures, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, and the oil mill's rapeseed meal inventory is not under pressure in the short term. Bearish factors: Rapeseed meal inventory has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, and the main short positions have increased with capital outflows. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain. [8] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - demand situation. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has affected the market. [10] - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, a 18.52% week - on - week increase and a 14.29% year - on - year increase. [8] - **Price**: The spot price is 2640, with a basis of 34, indicating a premium to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. [8] 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the lower - than - expected arrival of rapeseed, the increase in rapeseed imports, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to have a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend [8][13]. - The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and the inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is under short - term control, but the upside potential may be limited due to the lack of tariff on rapeseed imports [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - The arrival of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased from a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [20][22][24]. - Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. The rapeseed meal futures price recovered from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuated slightly, with a relatively high premium [32][34]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the supply of the domestic rapeseed market has improved. The annual rapeseed output in Canada has decreased slightly, and the global rapeseed output has also decreased slightly due to the reduction in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators [17][19]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: It includes the production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimps, as well as the OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports [26][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 102, indicating a discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 15,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 228% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.06% [8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Futures are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with the RM2509 contract ranging above 2600. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [13][14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has recovered from the bottom and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short and medium term. The KDJ and MACD indicators show a slightly bullish short - term trend, but the upside potential may be limited [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating and slightly bullish" rating for rapeseed meal futures [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. With low oil - mill operation and low inventory, and short - term peak demand, the market is in short - term range oscillation. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. In the short term, rapeseed meal may rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Rapeseed meal is expected to be influenced by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, rising and then falling, and returning to range oscillation due to soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed improves the supply - tight expectation. The demand side has good expectations. Canadian rapeseed annual output decreases slightly, and China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, along with ongoing anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed imports, have uncertain future results. Global rapeseed output decreases slightly due to EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts support commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and seasonal low demand for rapeseed meal [12]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed arrival**: The arrival of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [20]. - **Oil - mill crushing and inventory**: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory drops slightly, rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and the rapeseed crushing volume fluctuates slightly [22][24]. - **Rapeseed meal transaction**: Rapeseed meal rebounds from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuates slightly following the futures, with a high - level spot discount [34]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [32]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in peak season, and the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, but short - term inventory pressure is low. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a 58.18% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.1 tons and an 84.67% year - on - year decrease from last year's 3 tons [8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [8]. - **Main positions**: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal may rise and then fall in the short term due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Futures**: Short - term oscillation is slightly bullish. RM2509 oscillates above 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [13]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal rebounds and returns to range oscillation in the short and medium term, influenced by the listing of domestic rapeseed and good demand. Future Sino - Canadian trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a high level, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the upward space may be limited. The MACD rebounds, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the red energy is insufficient. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [43]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - **Most important**: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - **Second - most important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [47]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Palestine - Israel conflict.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a short - term rise followed by a fall. With the influence of soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future outcome uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [24][25]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: From June 17 - 26, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 2994 yuan/ton to 2889 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2600 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Inventory Data**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.93% [9]. - **Aquaculture Data**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal and technical oscillations. Low oil mill operation and low inventory support the market. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, short - term inventory pressure is low, making the short - term market oscillate strongly [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory has decreased significantly compared to the previous week and the same period last year [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580 in the short term [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2610 - 2670. The short - term trend is slightly bullish due to factors such as low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but it will return to range - bound trading influenced by factors like increased imports of rapeseed and the impact of soybean meal [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal enters the peak season. The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed does not pose short - term pressure on the inventory of oil mills. The short - term trend is slightly bullish. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain. - The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the decline in EU rapeseed output and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offsetting each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease from last week's 20,000 tons and a 32.14% year - on - year decrease from 28,000 tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Price**: The spot price is 2540, with a basis of - 98, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [9]. - **Supply and demand balance sheets**: Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including information on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players have increased, and capital has flowed in [9]. - The import of rapeseed in June is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates strongly. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has stopped falling and rebounded, while the rapeseed meal inventory has slightly declined. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly increased [25][28][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for a return to range - bound trading [9]. - The spot market for rapeseed meal is in a situation where supply is tight and demand is rising as domestic aquaculture is emerging from the off - season. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, and geopolitical conflicts still support commodity prices [11]. - The market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected outcome of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is emerging from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising [11]. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still rise and support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors are the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed meal inventory is 2.35 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67% [9]. - The spot price is 2520, with a basis of - 46, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has been narrowing at high levels, and the price difference for the 2509 contract has been oscillating [20]. - The import volume of rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost has been oscillating strongly [25]. - The rapeseed inventory at oil mills has continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills has rebounded to a relatively high level [29]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [37]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. Short - term factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory and China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes have caused prices to rise and then fall, and the soybean meal trend has also influenced the price to return to range - bound trading [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a rise followed by a fall. Influenced by soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9]. - The rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong oscillation, while the spot market follows the weak trend of soybean meal, with the spot remaining at a discount [18]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows from a high level, and the price difference of the 2509 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - The import volume of rapeseed in May is lower than expected, and the import cost shows a relatively strong oscillation [25]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the rapeseed meal inventory rebounds from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills rebounds to a relatively high level [29]. - The price of aquatic fish shows a slight increase, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [37]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - No relevant content provided 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is recovering from the off - season, with a tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market [11]. - The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia relatively offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24] - **Price and trading volume**: The report shows the trading average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 14th to May 23rd, as well as the futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal during the same period [13][14] - **Inventory**: As of a certain period, the rapeseed meal inventory is 2.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.38% [9] 5. Position Data - No relevant content provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal and technical oscillation. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually increasing. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure. The market will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the positive impact [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 56, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory shows a decreasing trend, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main positions**: The main long positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, increased imports of rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, the price will return to range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2540 - 2600 range - bound oscillation. The market is affected by the trend of soybean meal, low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of demand, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The neutral market situation is also affected by factors like the basis, inventory, price position on the moving average, and changes in the main positions [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, as well as the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From May 13th to May 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 3169 to 3000, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal increased from 2420 to 2500. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 749 to 500. The rapeseed meal futures price (主力2509) fluctuated between 2487 - 2562, and the spot price increased from 2420 to 2500. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31218 on May 12th to 28877 on May 22nd [13][14][16]. - The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2014 - 2023. The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance also shows corresponding changes from 2014 - 2023 [24][25]. - The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a strong - side oscillation. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased from a low level. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume rebounded to a relatively high level. Aquatic fish prices increased slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [26][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant content provided 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by the low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of demand, increased imports of rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has decreased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out. In the short term, due to the low - level inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price first rose and then fell, and then returned to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of import tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products [9]. - The short - term demand for rapeseed meal in the spot market is gradually recovering, but the impact of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products may be limited as tariffs on rapeseed imports have not been imposed [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rebounding. Influenced by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments, low oil - mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. The short - term demand for spot rapeseed meal is increasing, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is rising, but the short - term inventory pressure on oil mills is not significant. The market has returned to range - bound trading [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, leading to a tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the outcome uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From May 12 - 21, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 3200 to 3009, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2420 - 2480. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market narrowed from 750 to 549 [13]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory decreased from 3.6 million tons last week to 2.9 million tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 19.44%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.38% compared to 3.2 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in production, consumption, and inventory over the years [24][25]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: The market is neutral, affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low inventory, and tariff policies. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2460, with a basis of - 92, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. - **Inventory**: The decrease in inventory is bullish. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish. - **Main Position**: The decrease in long positions of the main contract is bullish. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, tariff policies, and soybean meal trends [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2480 - 2540. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for a return to range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, leading to a tightening supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: The average price and trading volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 9th to May 20th are provided, showing the price trends and trading volumes of both, as well as the price difference between them. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 2.9 tons, down 19.44% week - on - week from last week's 3.6 tons and 9.38% year - on - year compared to last year's 3.2 tons. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are presented, including data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [13][9][24]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal shows narrow - range oscillations, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical factors. Low oil mill operation and inventory support the market, and short - term demand is rising. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the lack of a tariff on rapeseed limits the upside. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2420, with a basis of - 90, indicating a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: As mentioned above, the inventory situation is favorable. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have increased, but funds are flowing out. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to return to range - bound trading in the short term [9].