Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: Recently, coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent. The upstream coal mines have seen an inventory inflection point, and coking coal may continue to show a volatile and upward trend in the short term [2][3] Group 3 - Coal and coke market situation: Yesterday, coking coal futures prices showed a volatile rebound trend and continued at night. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price cut dynamic for the time being [3] - Production data: This week, the daily output of raw coal in coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 35,000 tons [3] - Mine production changes: This week, 11 coal mines such as Jining and Huaning stopped production, involving a production capacity of 14.45 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 45,800 tons; 1 coal mine resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.5 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 4,000 tons [3] - Regional production reduction: This week, coal mines in Changzhi and Linfen, Shanxi, reduced production and stopped production due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, environmental inspections continued, and surrounding open-pit coal mines voluntarily stopped production [3] - Demand situation: This week, steel mills maintained a high operating rate, and the rigid demand for raw materials was good. The combination of coal mine production cuts and strong demand led to a downward inflection point in the inventory of upstream coal mines [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has improved, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed of upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal and coke continued the upward trend of fluctuations. Currently, the coking coal 09 contract has rebounded 12% from the bottom, and coke has rebounded 7%. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price - cut dynamic for the time being [2]. - Recently, affected by safety factors, some coal mines in Changzhi area have received notices to stop production for self - inspection. The shutdown period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan area have received shutdown notices, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily output of raw coal by 82,200 tons, and the affected coal types are lean coal and lean primary coking coal. In the short term, the supply has tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [2]. Inventory Data - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [2]. Downstream Conditions - Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [2]. Import Data - According to customs data, in May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports is mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 billion tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, affected by high tariffs, the import of US coal was zero in May [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, market sentiment has recovered, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the speed of inventory accumulation in upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Logic and Price Trends - Last week, the overall price of coal and coke continued to fluctuate, with the price center rising slightly. On the spot side, on June 20, steel mills in Hebei began the fourth round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, planned to be implemented on the 23rd [2]. Import Data - In May, China imported 7.3869 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 43.7139 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decrease of 8.01%. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 20.0486 million tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decrease of 16.6%. In addition, due to high tariffs, US coal imports were zero in May [2]. Market Conditions - The decline in spot coal prices has narrowed, market transactions have improved, and the situation of low - price resources has improved. Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi that had stopped production due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and the output stopped falling. The growth rate of clean coal inventory at the mine end has slowed down. Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.165 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high. Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [3].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large. Prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 Summary of logic - Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area remained stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - As of the morning of June 17, according to the latest research, coal mines in Puxian area have not stopped production. The corresponding shutdown capacity of pithead coal washing is 7.2 million tons, and the shutdown time is generally about ten days. One pithead coal washing plant that shut down yesterday has resumed production. Although coal mines are operating normally, some transportation has been affected by environmental inspections. In the short term, the reduction of coking coal supply in Linfen is less than expected [2] - Last week, the refined coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. The raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound is still insufficient [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will remain weak in the short term. Coking coal prices are likely to be weak, while coke is expected to run weakly and stably [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in production areas have halted operations, leading to a slight tightening of overall supply. Downstream procurement is cautious, with more declines than increases in online transaction prices. After previous price drops, the decline has significantly narrowed, and the probability of further sharp drops is low. In the short term, coal prices will run weakly and stably [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 150.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, coking enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, and they mainly consume inventory, reducing the demand for raw coal. Coupled with the off - season in the finished product market and the decline in hot metal production, the rigid demand for the coking coal market is under pressure. It is expected that coking coal prices will be weak in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: An increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After three rounds of coke price cuts, the profitability of coking enterprises has declined. Some coking enterprises have actively reduced production due to losses and inventory pressure. However, the market is观望, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is generally low, and some coking enterprises still have inventory accumulation. They mainly focus on active sales [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1320, with a basis of - 45.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons. The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Recently, due to stricter environmental inspections, the operating rate of coking enterprises has been restricted. However, considering the traditional off - season in the steel market, the terminal demand expectation remains weak, and steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is still cautious. Some steel mills continue to adopt a strategy of controlled procurement, and the overall market supply is still abundant. It is expected that coke will continue to run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: An increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 17th (17:30), the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and regions are provided, with prices ranging from 668 to 1250 [9]. - **Coke**: On June 17th (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have declined, with a decrease of 10 for some prices [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Supply and demand both declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remained high, and a short - term volatile and weak trend was maintained [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures market continued its volatile and weak trend, with prices further declining. On the spot side, the second round of coking price cuts was fully implemented, with a cumulative decline of 100 - 110 yuan/ton in two rounds; the spot price of coking coal declined under pressure, and the self - pick - up quotation of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal at the port dropped to 918 yuan/ton [3] Data on Production and Inventory - Last week, for 523 coking coal sample mines, the daily output of raw coal was 1.918 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared to the previous week, and production declined for two consecutive weeks. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.411 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.051 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.987 million tons [3] Demand Situation - Last week, the demand for coking coal and coke continued to decline slightly. The average daily molten iron output of steel mills dropped to 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 60,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines, and coal prices remained weak [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On May 27, the coke main contract closed at 1364 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.94%. The supply of coke increased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the demand decreased week - on - week. Coke inventory increased significantly at independent coking plants. Affected by upstream cost and downstream demand concerns, the coke futures will maintain a weak operation [5][33]. - On May 27, the coking coal main contract closed at 799.5 points, with an intraday decline of 0.12%. The supply of coking coal is expected to contract in late May, and the demand increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has been partially repaired, but the overall situation is still loose. The coking coal futures will oscillate weakly due to the weak market atmosphere [6][34]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industry News - In April 2025, the weighted average procurement cost of steel raw materials converted to dry basis was 1238.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38.32 yuan/ton or 3.00%. From January to April, the cumulative average procurement cost was 1328.03 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 637.98 yuan/ton or 32.45% [8]. - On May 27, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 65.4 US dollars/ton, up 0.8 US dollars/ton from the previous auction on May 9. All 64,000 tons of the listed quantity were unsold [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - price is 1390 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 3.47%, an annual decline of 17.75%, and a year - on - year decline of 31.86%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse is 1250 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.57%, a monthly decline of 6.72%, an annual decline of 22.84%, and a year - on - year decline of 38.42% [10]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 970 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 6.28%, an annual decline of 17.80%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.38%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1290 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 0.77%, an annual decline of 13.42%, and a year - on - year decline of 40.83%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1320 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 5.71%, an annual decline of 13.73%, and a year - on - year decline of 38.60% [10]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract was 1364.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.94%. The highest price was 1382.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1348.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 26,256, the volume difference was 4,779, the position was 56,307, and the position difference was 591 [13]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the active contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12%. The highest price was 806.5 yuan/ton, the lowest was 788.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 521,082, the volume difference was - 71,174, the position was 521,014, and the position difference was 1,529 [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including independent coking plants, steel mills, ports, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, ports, steel mills, and independent coking plants), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal line - screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][28]. Market Outlook - Coke: The supply and demand situation remains unchanged from the core view, and it is expected that the coke spot market will maintain a bearish atmosphere in the short term [5][33]. - Coking Coal: The supply and demand situation remains unchanged from the core view, and the coking coal market atmosphere is still under pressure from downstream price - cut expectations [6][34].

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晨报 煤焦 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 煤焦：盘面维持低位震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.z ...