1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation has fully priced in the supply recovery, and the market will fluctuate repeatedly [3]. - After the parade, the upstream production in China quickly recovered, and the customs clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained at a high level, resulting in a relatively large month - on - month increase in overall supply [5]. - The market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectations, and the risk appetite in domestic and international capital markets remains relatively strong, providing some macro - level support for commodity valuations [5]. - Although the actual supply - demand situation has eased after the parade, the previous strong consensus has been fully reflected in the market. Currently, the market still has strong support for future raw material demand expectations, and combined with the rapidly recovering blast furnace hot metal production, the short - term raw material valuation may have some support [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: FW raw coal production was 861.07 million tons (+43.76 million tons), FW clean coal production was 442.45 million tons (+23.31 million tons); independent coking plants' daily average production was 66.76 million tons (+2.44 million tons), and steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average production was 46.6 million tons (+0.88 million tons) [7]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production was 240.55 million tons (+11.71 million tons) [7]. - **Inventory**: MS total coal inventory decreased by 58.1 million tons, independent coking plants' coal inventory decreased by 36.5 million tons, mine raw coal inventory decreased by 1.6 million tons, mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.6 million tons, steel mill coking inventory decreased by 2.0 million tons, and port coal inventory decreased by 4.4 million tons, while FW port inventory increased by 23.3 million tons; MS total coke inventory increased by 11.0 million tons, independent coking plants' coke inventory increased by 1.3 million tons, steel mill inventory increased by 9.6 million tons, and port coke inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [7]. - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal was 404 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 35 yuan/ton (-29 yuan/ton) [7]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt price of Meng 5 coal in Tangshan was 1099 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1525 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weekly**: The 523 - sample mine raw coal production and clean coal production showed certain trends, and the customs clearance volume at Mongolian coal ports such as Ganqimaodu, Manzhouli, and Ceke also had different levels of performance [10][12][17]. - **Monthly**: The production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal had different trends in different months from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - **Inventory** - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 5.70 million tons week - on - week to 199.77 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 1.45 million tons week - on - week to 124.96 million tons [27]. - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 271.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.38 million tons [29]. - **Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants were provided, including overall and regional data [32][34]. - **Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their coking plants were provided, including overall and regional data [37]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Capacity Utilization** - **Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises, including different - scale plants and those in different regions, were presented [40]. - **Steel Mill**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants was provided [42]. - **Output** - **Coking Plant**: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises was presented [44]. - **Steel Mill**: The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants was provided [46]. - **Inventory** - **Coking Plant**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants was presented [48]. - **Steel Mill**: The inventory, average available days, and regional inventory data of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants were provided [49][51]. - **All - sample Aggregation**: The total coke inventory and supply - demand difference were presented [54][56]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures** - **Coking Coal Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from September 5 - 12, 2025 were provided [63]. - **Coke Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from September 5 - 12, 2025 were provided [66]. - **Coal and Coke Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 were presented [69]. - **Spot** - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, such as the car - loading prices of different grades of coking coal in different regions and the prices of quasi - first - grade and second - grade coke, were provided [72]. - **Basis** - The basis showed narrow - range fluctuations, and the futures market has been relatively firm recently, preventing the basis from further breaking through the previous high [75]. The basis data of coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 were presented [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the coal mine over - production inspection intensified again, and some coal mines in Shanxi received notices to organize production according to the 276 - working - day plan. The sentiment of going long on coking coal remained strong, driving up the price of coking coal and coke. The downstream procurement rhythm of coking coal and coke slowed down, and speculative demand weakened. However, the supply - side disturbances in coal mines may last until around the National Day, so coking coal is still prone to rise and hard to fall. After a short - term rapid increase, the upward momentum is expected to weaken. Coke has few contradictions and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend supported by coking coal costs. The strategy is to exit short positions in coking coal and focus on the 9 - 1 reverse spread [3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Coke Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - The futures market rallied again last week, and it is prone to rise in the short term. The fifth round of spot price increases was implemented, and the sixth round has started. The steam freight rate remained stable. For example, the coke 01 contract rose 4.55% to 1734. The prices of various types of coke in different regions and ports all increased to varying degrees, such as the Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price rising from 1180 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton [6][8][9]. 1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise profitability improved slightly, and the supply of independent coke enterprises increased slightly. As of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coke enterprise full - sample was 74.03%, a 0.34 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 65.1 tons, a 0.29 - ton increase from the previous week. However, the coking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 86.3%, and the daily coke output decreased by 0.17 tons to 46.8 tons [27][33]. 1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong rigid demand support. Speculative goods increased, export profits declined, and the daily trading volume of building material spot improved slightly. As of August 8, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.75%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, a 0.15 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the daily pig iron output was 240.32 tons, a 0.39 - ton decrease from the previous week; and the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4%, a 3.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [36]. 1.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased slightly, while steel mills' and coking plants' inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined. As of August 8, the total coke inventory decreased by 8.25 tons to 907.16 tons, with port inventory increasing by 3.05 tons to 218.15 tons, independent coke enterprise full - sample inventory decreasing by 3.89 tons to 69.73 tons, and 247 sample steel mill inventory decreasing by 7.41 tons to 619.28 tons [42][45]. 1.5 Profit - Coke enterprise profitability improved slightly, but the coke futures market profit continued to decline. The national 30 independent coke enterprise sample had a ton - coke profit of - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week. The coke 01 futures market profit decreased by 64.85 yuan/ton to 138.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [53]. 1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened oscillatingly. The coke 01 basis decreased by 56.2 to - 206.42 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 39 to - 83 compared to the previous week [57]. 2. Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - The futures market rallied again last week, and it is prone to rise in the short term. The spot price increase slowed down. For example, the coking coal 01 contract rose 10.04% to 1227. The prices of various types of coking coal in different regions and origins showed different trends, such as the price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal dropping from 1500 yuan/ton to 1480 yuan/ton [60][62][63]. 2.2 Supply - The supply in the production area was still restricted, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly, the number of customs - cleared vehicles of Mongolian coal rebounded, and the import of coking coal from January to June decreased year - on - year. As of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.22%, a 1.19 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the daily clean coal output was 26.04 tons, a 0.59 - ton increase from the previous week. In 2025, from January to June, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 52.9 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.26% [71][74]. 2.3 Inventory - The downstream replenishment rhythm slowed down, the coal mine inventory reduction slowed down, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of August 8, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 5.21 tons to 26.0769 million tons, with mine enterprise coking coal inventory decreasing by 2.6 tons to 245.66 tons, port inventory decreasing by 4.77 tons to 277.34 tons, coal washing plant clean coal inventory increasing by 2.1 tons to 288.11 tons, independent coke enterprise full - sample inventory decreasing by 4.81 tons to 9.8792 million tons, and 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 4.87 tons to 8.866 million tons [77][80]. 2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 01 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread both weakened. The coking coal 01 basis decreased by 134.5 to - 232 compared to the previous week. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50 to - 157.5 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 39 to - 11.5 compared to the previous week [92][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term coal and coke prices may show a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall due to frequent disturbances in the news and fundamental support. After the coke price increase, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking enthusiasm. The supply will be more focused on stable production and environmental safety inspections in the second half of the year, and the supply increase will be affected. With healthy steel mill profits and high - level hot metal production, coal and coke prices are supported. The market is in a positive feedback trading logic, and the short - term trend is regarded as oscillating upward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Coal**: Domestic coal supply has slightly decreased. The production of some previously overhauled and accident - halted mines in the main producing areas has gradually recovered, while some mines have reduced production due to factors such as underground working face replacement. The weekly sample coal mine raw coal output decreased by 26,500 tons to 12.2788 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.18% to 85.43%. Overseas, the port was closed for 5 days during the Nadam Fair (July 11 - 15) and resumed customs clearance on the 16th. The customs clearance volume has gradually recovered in the past two days. The average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port from July 14 - 17 was 779 vehicles [6] - **Coke**: The supply of coke production areas has gradually increased, but the growth rate is limited. The daily average output of independent coking plants is 642,000 tons (+1,000 tons), and that of steel mills and coking enterprises is 471,000 tons (-1,000 tons) [3][9] 3.2 Demand - **Coal**: Coke enterprises and intermediate links are actively purchasing, and coal mines have booming orders. Some resources at the mine mouth are in short supply, but the overall arrival of coke enterprises has not improved significantly, and some have difficulty increasing inventory and even experience passive inventory reduction [6] - **Coke**: After the blast furnace overhaul, the hot metal production has increased month - on - month, and the demand for coke has strengthened. The hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons) [6][9] 3.3 Inventory - **Coal**: The total MS inventory of coking coal decreased by 776,000 tons. Mine inventory decreased by 503,000 tons, independent coking plant inventory increased by 368,000 tons, steel mill coking plant inventory increased by 82,000 tons, port inventory decreased by 66,000 tons, and port - related inventory decreased by 688,000 tons [9] - **Coke**: The total MS inventory of coke decreased by 73,000 tons. Independent coking plant inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, steel mill inventory increased by 12,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons. The available days of coke inventory in the monitored steel enterprises are 10.85 days, a decrease of 0.18 days compared with the same period last week [4][9] 3.4 Investment Outlook - Not provided in the document 3.5 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data - **Coking Coal**: FW raw coal is 8.6656 million tons (-15,600 tons), FW clean coal is 4.4244 million tons (-10,500 tons), hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons), the profit of commercial coal is 326 yuan/ton (+36 yuan/ton), and there are different warehouse receipt prices [9] - **Coke**: The daily average output of independent coking plants is 642,000 tons (+1,000 tons), that of steel mills and coking enterprises is 471,000 tons (-1,000 tons), hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons), the average profit of coking enterprises is - 65 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton), and the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1,384 yuan/ton [9] 3.6 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts have changed. For example, on July 18, 2025, the closing price of coking coal 2509 was 926 yuan/ton, with a change of 7.5 yuan [60] - **Coke Futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts have also changed. On July 18, 2025, the closing price of coke 2509 was 1,518 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan [63] - **Spot Prices**: Different types of coking coal and coke have corresponding spot prices, and the basis of coking coal and coke is also provided. For example, on July 18, the basis of coking coal was 14, and that of coke was - 134 [70][74]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, under the influence of a bullish market sentiment and a slight relief in supply - demand pressure, both the futures and spot markets have strengthened in resonance. The short - term market should be treated as a volatile rebound [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated and trended stronger. On the spot side, the first - round price increase of coke was 70 - 95 yuan/ton, and the mainstream steel mills have accepted a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, with a still existing price - increase expectation in the market. The price of coking coal also maintained a rebound trend [2] Fundamental Analysis - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the demand for replenishment and speculation was concentratedly released. Coal resources were in short supply, and most pre - sale orders were signed for more than half a month. The pressure of high supply and high inventory in coal mines was significantly reduced, and coal prices were likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.929 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 6.153 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 276,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.391 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 tons [2] Demand - side Situation - Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from a low level. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent improvement in market sentiment and the slight alleviation of coking coal supply - demand pressure on the fundamentals, along with the follow - up increase in the spot market, are expected to support the futures market to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Trend - On July 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to rise in a volatile manner, and the spot market followed suit. Some coke enterprises in certain regions planned the first - round price increase. Market sentiment has been warming up, and positive rumors have stimulated price increases, but the actual implementation of relevant policies and measures needs attention. [2] Fundamental Analysis of Coking Coal - The proportion of unsold lots in the coking coal spot auction market has significantly decreased, and coal prices in most regions have rebounded. This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall process was relatively slow. The regional, phased, and structural supply - demand mismatch of coking coal has not been effectively alleviated. With the increase in macro - expectations this week, speculative demand has been released, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. The inventory at coal mine pits has continued to decline significantly, and there have been frequent cases of trucks waiting for coal. [2] - The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 191.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons; the daily average cleaned coal output was 76.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4 million tons; the coking clean coal inventory at the mine end was 377.2 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 122 million tons in the past three weeks and a year - on - year increase of 108.3 million tons. [2] Demand Side - Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment, and the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level. However, this week, the molten iron output dropped below 2.4 billion tons, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation. [2] Import Side - Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has remained relatively low, and the port inventory has steadily decreased. From July 11th to 15th, the ports will be temporarily closed due to the Mongolian Naadam Festival. [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up rate of steel mills and the customs clearance situation of imported coal. [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The simultaneous increase in short - term spot and futures prices is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. Although downstream has some restocking demand for high - quality scarce resources and the transaction of some coal types has improved, the market's expectation of long - term production capacity remains unchanged. Once prices rise, the impact of resumption of production will become the main contradiction. With the expected reduction of the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal, the shortage of domestic coal will be alleviated. Before seeing the stable recovery of production data, it is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of sentiment. Maintain the idea of lightly shorting on rebounds [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamentals - **Supply** - **Domestic coal**: In the current week, coal mines in Changzhi that were shut down due to safety reasons resumed production, while some mines in Lvliang had a decline in output. The total output of sample coal mines increased by 149,000 tons week - on - week to 12.2691 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.04% to 85.36%. FW raw coal was 8.6527 million tons (+123,800 tons), and FW clean coal was 4.4228 million tons (+73,600 tons) [3][9]. - **Overseas coal**: The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained low. With the sharp rise of the futures market, the trading atmosphere at the port was good, and the mainstream transaction price continued to rise slightly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 740 - 750 yuan/ton. The independent coking plant's daily average output was 644,000 tons (-1,000 tons), and the steel mill and coking enterprise's daily average output was 474,000 tons (+0 tons) [3][9]. - **Demand** - Steel prices fluctuated, and steel mills and traders increased their purchases of coke. The iron - making water output was 2.4085 million tons (-14,400 tons). The inventory of sample coking enterprises decreased by 404,500 tons to 1.2811 million tons compared with the previous week [4][9]. - **Inventory** - **Coking coal**: The MS total inventory increased by 600,000 tons. Mine inventory decreased by 644,000 tons, independent coking plant inventory increased by 392,000 tons, steel mill coking plant inventory increased by 84,000 tons, port inventory increased by 259,000 tons, and port - side inventory decreased by 167,000 tons [9]. - **Coke**: The MS total inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons. Independent coking plant inventory decreased by 109,000 tons, steel mill inventory increased by 97,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 99,000 tons [9]. - **Profit** - The profit of commercial coal was 292 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was - 4 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Warehouse Receipt** - For coking coal, the warehouse receipt price of Xiangning low - sulfur coal was 800 yuan/ton, Lvliang Shenjiamao was 894 yuan/ton, and Mongolian No. 5 coal in Tangshan was 793 yuan/ton. For coke, the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1286 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamentals - **Supply** - **Domestic coal production**: The output of raw coking coal and clean coking coal showed an upward trend. The output of sample coal mines' raw coal and clean coal increased week - on - week [3][11]. - **Mongolian coal customs clearance**: The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports showed different trends, with the total customs clearance volume of the three ports fluctuating [15][17][18]. - **Inventory** - **Mine inventory**: The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 463,300 tons to 3.4992 million tons week - on - week, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 586,200 tons to 3.0838 million tons [23]. - **Port inventory**: The coking coal port inventory was 3.0427 million tons, an increase of 186,800 tons week - on - week [27]. - **Coking plant inventory**: The inventory and available days of coking plants in different regions and capacities showed different trends [30][32][34]. - **Steel mill inventory**: The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises and the available days of inventory also showed certain changes [35]. 3.3 Coke Fundamentals - **Supply** - **Coking plant production**: The capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants showed different trends [38][40][42][44]. - **Inventory** - **Coking plant inventory**: The inventory of independent coking plants decreased compared with the previous period [46]. - **Steel mill inventory**: The inventory and available days of steel mill coking plants in different regions showed different trends [47][49][50]. - **Total inventory**: The total coke inventory showed a certain change trend [52]. - **Demand** - The iron - making water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4085 million tons (-14,400 tons), which had an impact on coke demand [9][54]. - **Profit** - The average profit of coking enterprises was - 4 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton), and the disk profit and spot profit of coke also showed certain changes [9][56]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Market** - **Coking coal futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts changed from July 1 - 4, 2025 [60]. - **Coke futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts changed from July 1 - 4, 2025 [63]. - **Futures Spread** - The spreads between JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 showed certain trends from March 21 - June 21, 2025 [67]. - **Spot Market** - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different trends [70]. - **Basis** - On July 4, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was 18 yuan/ton, and the basis of coke was - 147 yuan/ton [74].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: Recently, coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent. The upstream coal mines have seen an inventory inflection point, and coking coal may continue to show a volatile and upward trend in the short term [2][3] Group 3 - Coal and coke market situation: Yesterday, coking coal futures prices showed a volatile rebound trend and continued at night. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price cut dynamic for the time being [3] - Production data: This week, the daily output of raw coal in coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 35,000 tons [3] - Mine production changes: This week, 11 coal mines such as Jining and Huaning stopped production, involving a production capacity of 14.45 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 45,800 tons; 1 coal mine resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.5 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 4,000 tons [3] - Regional production reduction: This week, coal mines in Changzhi and Linfen, Shanxi, reduced production and stopped production due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, environmental inspections continued, and surrounding open-pit coal mines voluntarily stopped production [3] - Demand situation: This week, steel mills maintained a high operating rate, and the rigid demand for raw materials was good. The combination of coal mine production cuts and strong demand led to a downward inflection point in the inventory of upstream coal mines [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has improved, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed of upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal and coke continued the upward trend of fluctuations. Currently, the coking coal 09 contract has rebounded 12% from the bottom, and coke has rebounded 7%. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price - cut dynamic for the time being [2]. - Recently, affected by safety factors, some coal mines in Changzhi area have received notices to stop production for self - inspection. The shutdown period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan area have received shutdown notices, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily output of raw coal by 82,200 tons, and the affected coal types are lean coal and lean primary coking coal. In the short term, the supply has tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [2]. Inventory Data - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [2]. Downstream Conditions - Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [2]. Import Data - According to customs data, in May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports is mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 billion tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, affected by high tariffs, the import of US coal was zero in May [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, market sentiment has recovered, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the speed of inventory accumulation in upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Logic and Price Trends - Last week, the overall price of coal and coke continued to fluctuate, with the price center rising slightly. On the spot side, on June 20, steel mills in Hebei began the fourth round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, planned to be implemented on the 23rd [2]. Import Data - In May, China imported 7.3869 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 43.7139 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decrease of 8.01%. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 20.0486 million tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decrease of 16.6%. In addition, due to high tariffs, US coal imports were zero in May [2]. Market Conditions - The decline in spot coal prices has narrowed, market transactions have improved, and the situation of low - price resources has improved. Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi that had stopped production due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and the output stopped falling. The growth rate of clean coal inventory at the mine end has slowed down. Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.165 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high. Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [3].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large. Prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 Summary of logic - Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area remained stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - As of the morning of June 17, according to the latest research, coal mines in Puxian area have not stopped production. The corresponding shutdown capacity of pithead coal washing is 7.2 million tons, and the shutdown time is generally about ten days. One pithead coal washing plant that shut down yesterday has resumed production. Although coal mines are operating normally, some transportation has been affected by environmental inspections. In the short term, the reduction of coking coal supply in Linfen is less than expected [2] - Last week, the refined coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. The raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound is still insufficient [2]