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“十五五”如何布局?黄奇帆、林毅夫、朱民、吴晓求、张军发声
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-25 06:37
Group 1: Economic Strategy and Development - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the need for a new blueprint and new momentum for China's economic growth, with discussions led by economists like Huang Qifan and Lin Yifu [1] - Huang Qifan highlights the importance of developing the productive service industry as a key driver for GDP growth and overall productivity, suggesting that it should be a focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4] - Lin Yifu warns of a potential AI bubble in the U.S. during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, and suggests that China should aim for an 8% annual growth rate until 2035 [5][6] Group 2: Manufacturing and Trade - Zhu Min stresses the need for China to enhance product quality and build a new type of manufacturing industry, moving from labor-intensive to capital and technology-intensive products [7][8] - The global trade structure is changing, and China is diversifying its exports, focusing on capital and technology-intensive products rather than labor-intensive ones [7] - The goal is for manufacturing to remain a significant part of the economy, with a target of 25% by 2040, while the productive service sector should rise to 35%-40% of GDP [4] Group 3: Capital Market Reforms - Wu Xiaoqiu calls for a restructuring of the capital market ecosystem to better protect investor interests, moving away from a focus solely on financing [9][10] - The reform aims to increase the presence of high-tech companies in the stock market, with expectations that 35 out of the top 50 listed companies will be high-tech by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] - There is a push for greater transparency and improved regulatory frameworks in the capital market to enhance liquidity and attract larger investments [9] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Service Trade - Zhang Jun emphasizes the need for China to reduce reliance on exports and increase domestic demand, suggesting that trade surpluses should approach zero [12] - Recommendations include lowering barriers to service trade, adjusting exchange rate policies, and increasing investment in social sectors to support domestic consumption [12]
“十五五”如何布局?黄奇帆、林毅夫、朱民、吴晓求、张军发声
证券时报· 2025-11-25 06:34
Group 1: Core Perspectives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of the productive service industry as a key driver for GDP growth and innovation in manufacturing [4] - The international economic landscape is expected to remain weak, with potential risks of an AI bubble burst in the U.S. during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6] - China aims to enhance its manufacturing quality and transition to a new type of manufacturing that is not only cost-effective but also high-tech [8] Group 2: Economic Strategies - The productive service industry is identified as a crucial element for improving total factor productivity, with a target for its GDP share to rise to 35%-40% by 2040 [4] - Recommendations include adopting more proactive monetary and fiscal policies to tap into China's economic growth potential, estimated at 8% annually until 2035 [6] - The need for restructuring the capital market ecosystem to prioritize investor protection and enhance market transparency is highlighted [10][11] Group 3: Trade and Domestic Demand - The strategy to reduce reliance on exports and increase domestic demand is emphasized, with a goal to bring trade surplus close to zero [13] - Suggestions include lowering market access barriers in service trade and adjusting the exchange rate to support manufacturing upgrades and consumer spending [14] - Increased investment in social welfare sectors like education and healthcare is recommended to support the domestic demand strategy [15]
黄奇帆:生产性服务业是制造业高附加值的核心
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-23 13:26
在23日举行的2025第十届复旦首席经济学家论坛上,中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副 主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆指出,生产性服务业是GDP最大板块的增长极,是催生"独角兽"企业的动力 源泉,是提升服务贸易竞争力的坚实基础,是提高终端产品附加值的灵魂,也是提高一个国家全要素生 产率的重要基础。 现代制造业的高附加值更多体现在"看不见"的服务、专利与软件上。 生产性服务业是促进制造业技术进步、提升制造业生产效率和生产效益的关键环节,也对地区的国家的 经济发展起着关键作用。 对于生产性服务业的发展,他建议应把生产性服务业与制造业同等看待,除了保持制造业在GDP中占比 不低于25%的比例,还应把生产性服务业作为实体经济的重要组成部分来培育。 他以美股"七姐妹"举例,包括英伟达、苹果在内的美国"恐龙级"独角兽,它们共同的特征就是除了特斯 拉直接参与汽车和硬件制造外、其他企业的制造全是交给代工龙头企业生产,却成为制造业的龙头与价 值创造核心。这说明现代制造业的高附加值更多体现在"看不见"的服务、专利与软件上,而非仅靠零部 件的物理成本。 黄奇帆称,生产性服务业是制造业高附加值的核心。以手机为例,终端售价在700 ...
聚湾区之心 话发展大计
Guang Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-11-19 00:42
Core Viewpoint - The 20th China Economic Forum held in Guangzhou's Nansha district focused on "Chinese-style modernization and the economic outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing high-quality development strategies for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [9][10]. Group 1: Economic Achievements and Future Directions - China's manufacturing sector has made significant progress, achieving "five leading and five parallel" advancements in key industrial fields, including shipbuilding, high-speed rail, and new energy [10]. - The forum highlighted the need to focus on new productive forces, emphasizing green, low-carbon, and digital transformation, as well as the development of strategic emerging industries [12][20]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Industry Development - Companies like Xiaoma Zhixing have achieved L4-level autonomous driving operations, with over 58 million kilometers driven on public roads, showcasing advancements in the autonomous vehicle sector [11]. - Gree Electric Appliances has significantly increased its R&D workforce from hundreds to 20,000, focusing on core technologies and components to enhance its competitive edge [11]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Smart City Initiatives - Guangzhou is leading in digital development, integrating data as a key production factor and establishing a digital government framework to enhance urban management [13]. - The city aims to create a smart city service model that combines AI platforms and intelligent equipment to improve urban services [14]. Group 4: Regional Cooperation and Open Innovation - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is positioned as a model for high-level open innovation, with plans to enhance collaboration and regulatory alignment between regions [15][16]. - The forum underscored the importance of leveraging Hong Kong's international advantages and Nansha's development platform to support Chinese enterprises in global markets [17].
黄奇帆:十五五期间,民营企业最重要的赛道
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 17:24
声明 来源:北京商报,转载的目的在于传递更多信息及分享,并不意味着证实其真实性,也不构成其他建 议。仅提供交流平台,不为其版权负责。如涉及侵权,请联系我们及时修改或删除。本文编辑:微明 10月28日,在2025金融街论坛年会平行论坛"金融创新赋能民营经济高质量发展论坛"上,中国国家创新 与发展战略研究会常务副主席黄奇帆指出,我国制造业已实现"五大领跑、五大并跑"——汽车、造船、 电力装备、高铁装备、新能源装备领域领跑全球,新材料、生物医药、高端装备、航空航天、人工智能 领域与发达国家并跑,制造业全球占比达32%。 黄奇帆强调,生产性服务业涵盖研发、物流、检验检测、金融、绿色低碳、数字化、贸易、知识产权、 专业咨询、人力资源十大类范畴,是GDP增长极、独角兽培育极、服务贸易提升极、全要素生产率驱动 极。黄奇帆呼吁民营企业拓展生产性服务业赛道,既能缓解制造业内卷,又能吸纳高校毕业生就业,还 可盘活写字楼资源,为"十五五"民营经济高质量发展开辟新空间。 ...
国务院印发!深圳民间资本可以参与投资这些项目了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 14:39
Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued measures to further promote private investment, aiming to expand investment opportunities in new productive forces, emerging service industries, and new infrastructure projects. Group 1: Encouragement of Private Capital Participation - Private capital is encouraged to participate in key projects that require national approval, particularly in sectors like railways, nuclear power, and water supply [1][4]. - Support is provided for private capital to engage in the construction and operation of smaller urban infrastructure projects that have profit potential [3][4]. - Private capital is guided to invest more in productive service sectors, including industrial design, common technology services, inspection and testing, quality certification, and digital transformation [5][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Mechanisms - A new mechanism for public-private partnerships (PPP) is to be implemented, with a revised list of projects that support private enterprise participation [5][6]. - The government will ensure that bidding processes do not impose unreasonable restrictions on private enterprises, such as mandatory membership in associations or excessive historical performance requirements [5][6]. - The government will increase procurement support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), reserving at least 40% of the budget for eligible projects exceeding 4 million yuan for SME procurement [5][6]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Technological Development - There will be a focus on enhancing the regulatory oversight of network-based infrastructure operations to protect the rights of private enterprises in areas like electricity and oil and gas pipeline usage [6][7]. - Private enterprises are encouraged to build significant pilot platforms in key industries, with support from state-owned enterprises and research institutions [6][7]. - The government aims to support the digital transformation of private enterprises by fostering the development of comprehensive digital empowerment platforms [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Support and Investment - The central government will increase budgetary support for eligible private investment projects, utilizing new policy financial tools to bolster capital [6][7]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to set annual service goals for private enterprises, ensuring that credit resources are accurately allocated to meet their needs [7][8]. - The government will facilitate the issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) for qualifying private investment projects in infrastructure [8].
畅通渠道、破解堵点!“硬核”举措加码 激发民间投资新活力
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-11-12 07:59
《关于进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施》(以下简称《若干措施》)近日出台,提出了13项政策举措,从扩大准入、打通堵点、 强化保障三个主要方面,支持民间资本参与重点领域投资、支持民间资本更多投向生产性服务业领域。政策措施力求畅通民营企业 投资渠道、破解民间投资发展堵点、积极支持民营企业扩大有效投资。 重点领域项目民间资本持股比例可超10% 《若干措施》提出,铁路、核电、水电等重点领域项目,鼓励支持民间资本参与,并明确民间资本持股比例可在10%以上。政策既 明确了可参与的重点领域,并量化了具备条件的项目持股比例。 民间投资在多领域将有更多准入机会 国家发展改革委投资司副司长关鹏表示,比如近年来,持续推动核电等重大项目引入民间资本,有的核电项目最高参股比例已达 20%。 中国民营经济研究会常务理事李志起表示,这些数字化的目标比以前更加精准和到位。在产业的发展方向上,向低空经济、商业航 天这些新兴的新的生产力领域都鼓励民营企业来大胆的进入。可以说,口开得更宽,民营企业的获得感会更强。 开放领域延伸至"高精尖"科研创新领域 开放领域还延伸到"高精尖"科研和创新领域,从实体经济延伸到服务业。 支持民间资本有序流向高价值服 ...
观察·畅通渠道、破解堵点!“硬核”举措加码 激发民间投资新活力
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-11-12 07:38
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of the "Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of Private Investment," which includes 13 policy initiatives aimed at supporting private capital in key sectors and enhancing investment channels for private enterprises [1][9] - The measures encourage private capital participation in key projects such as railways, nuclear power, and hydropower, allowing for a shareholding ratio of over 10% [4][2] - The policy aims to broaden access for private investment in various fields, including emerging sectors like low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace, thereby enhancing the sense of gain for private enterprises [11][9] Group 2 - The measures emphasize the importance of guiding private capital towards high-value service industries, focusing on areas such as industrial design, common technology services, inspection and testing, and quality certification [18][14] - There is a push for the construction of significant pilot platforms by private enterprises, with support for collaboration between state-owned enterprises, universities, and research institutions to provide market-oriented pilot services [20][22] - The policy also aims to enhance the effectiveness of private investment measures by optimizing funding channels and financial services, including support for technology companies in financing and issuing infrastructure REITs [23][9]
促进民间投资组合拳落地:加大投融资支持,重点领域项目持股可超10%
第一财经· 2025-11-12 05:51
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of stimulating private investment to enhance economic activity, stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, highlighting the recent measures introduced by the State Council to promote private investment in key sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The State Council's recent document outlines 13 targeted policy measures aimed at encouraging private capital participation in key projects such as railways and nuclear power, including specific shareholding requirements [3][6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 105 projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with 83 projects already listed, covering various sectors and expected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in new investments [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - In the first three quarters of the year, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 371.535 billion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year decline, with private fixed asset investment down 3.1% [7]. - However, excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 2.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing sectors showing positive growth rates of 7% and 3.2%, respectively [7][8]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The NDRC acknowledges existing challenges in private investment, including macroeconomic factors and market conditions, and emphasizes the need for targeted measures to enhance investment effectiveness [9][10]. - The new measures aim to lower barriers for private capital in traditional sectors like energy and railways, promoting a more open and fair investment environment [9][10]. Group 4: Focus on Service Industry - The measures also aim to eliminate unreasonable entry restrictions in the service industry, encouraging private capital to invest in high-value sectors such as industrial design and digital transformation [12][13]. - The NDRC highlights the potential for private investment in the service industry, which is seen as crucial for economic development and innovation [13][14]. Group 5: Financial Support - The measures emphasize the coordination of investment, fiscal, and financial policies to enhance the effectiveness of private investment promotion [16][17]. - The NDRC plans to utilize various financial tools to support eligible private investment projects, including the issuance of infrastructure REITs to broaden financing channels [16][17].
支持更多民间投资项目 发行基础设施REITs
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-12 01:08
Group 1 - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, focusing on addressing challenges faced by private investors in various sectors [1][2] - The measures encourage private capital participation in specific projects, with a minimum shareholding of 10% for eligible projects [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 18 private investment projects for infrastructure REITs, with 14 already listed, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The NDRC aims to support private investment in productive service sectors such as industrial design and digital transformation [3] - Future actions will focus on enhancing the quality and capacity of service industries, encouraging private enterprises to engage in high-value-added technology services [3] - The NDRC plans to implement measures to facilitate private investment in key projects within the productive service sector [3]