Core Viewpoint - The decline in on-grid electricity prices has significantly impacted the performance of major power generation companies, exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Power Companies - All five major power generation companies reported a year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of the year, compared to only three companies experiencing a decline in the same period last year [1] - Huaneng International (600011.SH) reported revenue of 112.032 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in both electricity volume and price, with an average on-grid price of 485.27 yuan/MWh, down 2.69% [2] - Guodian Power (600795.SH) saw revenue of 77.655 billion yuan, down 9.52% year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in the selling price of electricity, with an average on-grid price of 409.7 yuan/MWh, down 6.72% [2] - Huadian International (600027.SH) reported revenue of 59.953 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.98%, mainly due to reduced power generation and lower electricity prices, with an average on-grid price of 516.8 yuan/MWh, down approximately 1.44% [2] - Datang Power (601991.SH) had operating revenue of 57.193 billion yuan, down 1.93%, with an average on-grid settlement price of 444.48 yuan/MWh, a decrease of about 3.95% [2] - China Power (02380.HK) reported main business revenue of 23.858 billion yuan, down 9.87%, with wind power average price at 410.66 yuan/MWh, down 8.05%, and solar power at 376.80 yuan/MWh, down 5.97% [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The decline in on-grid electricity prices is attributed to the accelerated construction of a unified national electricity market, increasing market-based trading volumes, and the entry of renewable energy sources, which have led to intensified competition and lower prices [4][8] - During peak output periods for renewable energy, aggressive pricing strategies are employed to ensure power clearance, with some regions reporting prices as low as 0.04 yuan/kWh, and instances of negative pricing [4][5] - The current market environment has resulted in a competitive landscape where renewable energy sources are prioritized for dispatch due to their lower marginal costs, leading to a homogenized competition pattern across different power sources [5] - The performance of nuclear power companies has also been affected, with China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) reporting revenue of 39.167 billion yuan, down 0.53%, and China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) seeing a decline in net profit margins due to falling electricity prices [6] - The overall electricity supply has outpaced demand growth, contributing to the downward pressure on prices, with total installed capacity reaching 3.65 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [7] Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Future Outlook - Recent regulatory changes, including the issuance of documents promoting market-oriented pricing for renewable energy, are expected to further influence electricity pricing dynamics [8] - The transition to a spot market for electricity trading is anticipated to enhance price discovery and reflect supply-demand relationships more accurately, potentially leading to continued price declines [8][9] - The current trend of declining electricity prices may persist unless new supportive policies are introduced to stabilize the market [9]

今年迎峰度夏期间，山东电网负荷8次创历史新高，并首次突破1.3亿千瓦。同时，截至今年8月底，山 东新能源装机达1.2367亿千瓦。 随着市场化改革不断深入，电力市场助力新能源高质量发展的作用越发凸显。9月11日，山东新能源增 量项目机制电价竞价结果进入公示阶段，这是全国首次开展的新能源机制电价竞价。在首轮竞价中，有 3000多个新能源项目参与，覆盖风电、太阳能发电两大类别。此次竞价标志着电力市场化改革迈出了关 键一步。 如何平衡好规模与效率，促进新能源高质量发展？机制电价是一项重要创新。机制电价竞价类似于投 标，可以从"量"和"价"两个维度来理解。山东省发展改革委价格处副处长史华南介绍，"量"可以理解为 能"中标"的总规模，根据年度风电光伏消纳责任权重完成情况等因素确定。在总量之下，按照报价"低 价优先"的方式入围，"中标价"取入围项目的最高价。这样能够有效实现新能源"量"的合理增长 与"价"的有效竞争。 山东这次竞价形成的新能源机制电价，相当于一个动态的"价格保险"：当电力市场价格低的时候，"价 格保险"会支付费用保证项目得到入围时获得的电价；当电力市场价格高的时候，"价格保险"会回收项 目高于入围电价的收 ...

年度代表作 《现货申价或见底、估值+业绩双提升》 Alily 国泰海通证券 | 研究所 吴杰 公共事业首席分析师 行业核心洞察 电价供需决定,2026 年北方止跌,南方震荡 价值主张 开创性:创建电力供需模型,预测电价,实证 有效,个人周期研究十七年,观点持续性强, 擅长把握拐点机会 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求 若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户 为保证服务质量 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：电力市场化改革全景图——寻找系统成本最优 解；报告日期：20240710；报告作者：吴杰S0880525040109；风险提示：用电量增速的不确定性。 经济增速预期和货币政策导致市场风格波动较大。新能源和储能等技术进步、成本下降不及预期。电力 市场化方向确定，但推进节奏难以确定。 ...

华能国际 20250917 摘要 华能国际受益于电力行业改革，电价市场化机制的放开显著改善了火电 企业的盈利能力，尤其是在 2021 年后，电价允许上浮，缓解了煤价上 涨带来的成本压力。 煤炭价格的合理控制对华能国际的业绩至关重要。2022 年煤价回落及 中长期价格新政（500-700 元/吨）的实施，有效降低了燃料成本，提 升了公司盈利水平。 容量电价政策的实施提升了火电竞争力，通过补偿新能源挤压导致的利 用小时数下降，降低了新能源发展对传统火电竞争带来的压力，稳定了 盈利预期。 华能国际在火电领域具有显著优势，装机规模大，东部、中东部地区竞 争优势突出，煤耗水平低于行业平均，使其能更好地适应政策变化和市 场需求。 华能国际新能源业务占比逐步提升，虽目前仍以火电为主，但新能源业 务已成为重要的盈利增长点，未来将继续增加新能源装机容量，优化能 源结构。 Q&A 华能国际资源公司近年来的业绩表现为何优于市场预期？ 华能国际资源公司近年来的业绩表现优于市场预期，主要原因在于其在多个方 面的转型和调整。首先，从 2021 年开始，国家提出了"双碳目标"，这促使 华能国际等电力企业加大了对新能源项目的投资，从而为未来 ...

9月16日，国网甘肃省电力公司在张掖市举办"聚焦市场新政 共筑绿色未来"甘肃省2025年电力市场服务提升暨电价政策宣讲活动（河 西片区），各级政府相关部门代表和嘉峪关、金昌、酒泉、张掖、武威五市发电、用电企业代表90余人参加会议。 在互动交流环节，参会企业积极提问，就交易流程、电价波动风险、绿电绿证交易细节等问题与专家深入探讨。张掖一家企业负责 人表示："本次宣讲让我们清晰掌握了电价政策与市场交易规则，后续我们会参照分时电价调整生产计划，控制最大需量电费成本，同时 跟进现货市场峰谷价差变化，在降低用电成本的同时，主动消纳绿电。"活动中5家地市政府代表围绕区域电力保障与新能源发展建言献 策，10家发电、用电企业代表结合自身经营实际交流经验，国网甘肃省电力公司相关部门还对企业提出的意见建议进行现场答复，切实 解决市场主体实际需求。 下阶段，国网甘肃省电力公司将持续深化电力市场体系建设，为企业提供更加精准的政策服务和技术支持，助力更多企业在电力市 场化改革中把握机遇、实现绿色发展，为构建新型能源体系、推动地方经济高质量发展贡献力量。 【责任编辑：刘澄谚 】 活动现场，授课专家们围绕电力市场改革核心内容展开深入讲解， ...

北极星电力市场网获悉，9月16日，陕西省发展和改革委员会、陕西省市场监督管理局发布了关于进一 步加强售电市场规范运营有关事项的通知，其中提到，售电公司应尽到告知义务，向零售用户准确宣传 政策规则，提供真实、准确、全面的市场信息。与用户签订零售合同时，主动告知电力用户登录交易平 台签约，保证用户充分知悉交易价格形成机制、入市交易风险及市场价格信息获取途径等内容，不得对 用户进行虚假营销宣传或作出虚假承诺。要为电力用户提供优质服务，满足用户合理诉求，提高交易能 力、技术水平，综合施策优化用户用能方案，降低用户用能成本；如遇投诉举报，积极主动配合问询， 不得进行虚假性、误导性陈述或提供虚假材料。 持续规范企业管理与运营。禁止不正当价格行为，售电公司不得与发电企业签订阴阳合同，损害用户利 益，不得与用户签订明显低于市场均价的合同，降低自身零售侧均价，损害其他签约用户利益。不得与 转供电主体串通签订明显高于市场均价的合同，损害最终用电户利益；要规范开展售电业务，直接对接 服务零售用户，与用户签订零售合同，开展注册入市、合同调整、政策告知等服务。发售一体的售电公 司要确保发电业务与售电业务在人员、财务、信息等方面的独立性 ...

"2027年……全国新型储能装机规模达到1.8亿千瓦以上，带动项目直接投资约2500亿元"。国家层面的 最新部署，让我们看到了中国储能行业正在从追求装机的"规模竞赛"转向运营效率的"价值博弈"。 9月12日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案(2025—2027年)》(以 下简称《方案》)，为未来三年储能发展指明方向。 这份文件清晰地传递出一个信号：储能行业竞争的核心将从"建设规模"转向运营效率和市场价值。那些 没有被频繁调用的储能设施，将成为"沉睡资产"；而没有深度融入市场机制的储能，则难以转化为"现 金流资产"。 从"量"的积累到"量""质"齐飞 国家能源局近日发布的《中国新型储能发展报告（2025）》显示，截至2024年底，全国已建成投运新型 储能7376万千瓦/1.68亿千瓦时，装机规模占全球总装机比例超过40%。中国新型储能规模已跃居世界第 一。 《方案》提出，到2027年，全国新型储能装机规模达到1.8亿千瓦以上，带动项目直接投资约2500亿 元。 AI成为唤醒"沉睡资产"的关键利器 随着一系列的电力市场化改革深化，传统储能依赖的峰谷价差套利模式面临挑战。 三年时间从7 ...

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing slight fluctuations while the ChiNext Index peaked and then retreated. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.28 trillion, a decrease of 245.8 billion from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.52% [1]. Investment Recommendations - Guotai Junan Securities indicated that the third round of revaluation for A-shares is approaching, driven by fundamental factors. They suggested three key strategies: existing investors should remain patient and not rush to exit, new investors should wait for better entry points, and there is no need to panic about potential market declines as systemic risks are gradually being resolved [1][2]. - The report highlighted three asset categories to focus on: 1) high-dividend assets, physical assets, and gold to mitigate uncertainties from global stagflation; 2) technology sector to capture hopes of breaking through economic stagnation; 3) unique structural opportunities in China's transformation, particularly for quality companies with competitive advantages in overseas expansion, industrial upgrading, and lower-tier consumption [2]. Policy Developments - Huatai Securities reported that recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim to deepen electricity market reforms. These include a special action plan for large-scale energy storage construction (2025-2027) and mechanisms to promote the consumption of renewable energy. These policies are expected to benefit the sustainability of energy storage and wind power orders [3]. Industry Insights - CICC expressed optimism about the development potential of leading indoor ski resort operators and related industry chain enterprises. The report noted a mismatch between the scarcity of quality ice and snow resources and the growing skiing population, indicating that indoor ski resorts can effectively address this issue and promote the popularity of skiing [4].

（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券研报表示，9月12日国家发改委和能源局密集发布3条政策及征求意见稿，包括《新型储能规模 化建设专项行动方案（2025—2027年）》，《关于完善价格机制促进新能源发电就近消纳的通知》， 《电力现货连续运行地区市场建设指引》，目前均已定稿，且此前已线下完成征求意见。文件大方向上 均聚焦深化电力市场化改革，明确了绿电直连、风光储一体项目的输配电价机制和未来路线图，并给储 能装机增长划定底线目标。将首先利好储能和风电订单持续性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance in its 2025 semi-annual report, benefiting from the booming renewable energy installation market and the growth of its distributed power forecasting business, achieving revenue of 321 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.48% [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 321 million yuan, up 43.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 46 million yuan, up 32.48% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 43 million yuan, up 53.52% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 176 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.74%, and a net profit of 29 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.32%, with a non-recurring net profit of 28 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.64% [2][3] Business Segments - The power forecasting business saw significant growth, generating revenue of 205 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.14%, accounting for 63.96% of total revenue, driven by rapid growth in upstream installation scale and new market opportunities [4] - The company added 1,116 new power station users, a 26% increase compared to the end of 2024, with a total of 5,461 power stations served, indicating strong user retention and potential for further business scale effects [4] Innovation and AI Integration - The company is steadily advancing its innovative business, which includes power trading, energy storage management systems, virtual power plants, and microgrid energy management systems, generating revenue of 16.16 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.53% [4] - The introduction of AI technology has optimized operational strategies in energy storage and enhanced product functionality, with international versions of energy storage management systems developed to meet overseas market demands [5] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 720 million yuan, 916 million yuan, and 1.148 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.92%, 27.26%, and 25.29% respectively, and net profits of 121 million yuan, 154 million yuan, and 193 million yuan for the same period [6]