➢ 摘要： 2025 年沪铝震荡上行，氧化铝则持续一路走弱。铸造铝合金自上市后行情走势基 本与沪铝同频。 2025 年产业链上游紧张态势有所缓解。矿石进口量增加，国内矿山生产扰动相对 有限。氧化铝产能开工率维持高位，且有多项新产能及复产产能陆续投放。然而，随 着氧化铝现货价格大幅下跌、利润显著收缩甚至陷入亏损，部分高成本产能已出现停 产检修。未来，停产产能与新投、复产产能之间的博弈将成为影响氧化铝价格的核心 因素。电解铝环节因成本下降、利润大幅提升，开工率随之上升，在产产能近乎满负 荷运行，预计 2026 年这一态势仍将延续。 下游加工行业开工率呈现明显分化：建筑型材、板带箔等传统领域表现平淡，而 线缆、合金及工业型材等领域则相对亮眼。终端需求中，新能源相关产业及电网建设 领域保持良好增长。预计 2026 年新能源汽车产销量增速可能随补贴退坡而放缓，但电 网建设在"十五五"新规划周期内仍将维持较高增长水平。库存方面则存在一定隐忧： 行业铸锭量持续偏低导致库存重心不断下移，低库存水平削弱了价格缓冲空间，这一 点从每逢交割临近时盘面资金的活跃度即可见一斑。 展望 2026 年，全球宏观环境的复杂性与严峻性仍将显著 ...

国网山西省电力有限公司建设部建设管理处负责人闫杰表示，针对迎峰度冬工程"时间紧、任务重"的特 点，将科学排定工程建设计划，统筹建设资源，优化施工组织，配足施工力量，全力加快推进施工进 度，确保本月底前全部投运。 （文章来源：新华财经） 近日，山西省2025年迎峰度冬重点工程——太原北500千伏变电站主变扩建工程建成投运。此次扩建新 增两台100万千伏安变压器，投运后可进一步提升太原北部地区供电能力，更好满足太原北部经济社会 发展和人民群众美好生活用电需求。 今年以来，山西电网用电负荷保持增长态势。1至10月份，山西省全社会用电量达2629.1亿千瓦时，同 比增长7%。据预测，2025年度冬期间，全省最大用电负荷将再创新高。为保障人民群众温暖度冬和山 西转型发展用电需求，国网山西电力加快推进16项主网迎峰度冬重点工程建设，全力提升电网供电能 力。目前，已投产9项，剩余重点工程建设现场正火热推进，高效有序施工。 ...

国内电网建设叠加AI电力缺口催化，电网设备板块利好不断，电网ETF（561380）涨超2.8%。 AI发展带来用电需求激增。今年1-10月，我国互联网数据服务用电量同比增长43%。"算力的尽头是电力"已逐步成为全球共识，微软CEO纳德拉近期多次公 开表示，当前人工智能产业面临的核心瓶颈为电力短缺。北美缺电情况延续，全球电力系统存在迫切的升级和扩建需求。传统电网扩容速度较慢，或将倒逼 分布式、高弹性供电技术（如SOFC）与主网投资双轨并进，中国电网设备供应链迎来有望迎来系统性发展机遇。 看好电网板块后续表现，关注电网ETF（561380）。 产业趋势看，AI产业持续爆发引发全球性电力短缺，电力设备成为市场焦点。相关机构表示，根据EIA的预测，2030年数据中心的电力需求将较2023年增加 150%以上，AI驱动的数据中心将占美国总电力负荷的9%，将带来14GW的装机缺口。装机缺口的需求将对电源电网设备形成强拉动。同时，英伟达此前发 布800V电源架构白皮书，单机能耗和电压提升，指引了800v供电、SST等新技术的发展需求。这也印证了那句话"AI的基础是算力，算力的尽头是电力。" 考虑到国内电网建设投资增长预期， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车-2025-12-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10. ...

今年以来，山西电网用电负荷保持增长态势。1至10月份，山西全社会用电量达2629.1亿千瓦时，同比 增长7%。2025年度冬期间，全省最大用电负荷预计将再创新高。 为保障民众温暖度冬和山西转型发展用电需求，国网山西电力加快推进16项主网迎峰度冬重点工程建 设，全力提升电网供电能力。目前，已投产9项，剩余重点工程建设现场正火热推进，高效有序施工。 中新网太原12月5日电 (高雨晴薛继斌)记者5日从国网山西省电力有限公司获悉，山西2025年迎峰度冬重 点工程——太原北500千伏变电站主变扩建工程于12月4日建成投运。 "针对迎峰度冬工程时间紧、任务重的特点，我们科学排定工程建设计划，统筹建设资源，优化施工组 织，配足施工力量，全力加快推进施工进度，确保本月底前全部投运。"国网山西省电力有限公司建设 部建设管理处负责人闫杰说。(完) 此次扩建，新增两台100万千伏安变压器，投运后可进一步提升太原北部地区供电能力，更好满足太原 北部经济社会发展和民众美好生活用电需求。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

11月30日，榆林靖边北330千伏输变电工程顺利合闸送电。该工程于2024年10月开工，新建变电站 与750千伏榆横变电站、330千伏统万变电站互联互通，形成区域电网骨干节点。该工程将为榆林经济社 会发展和能源转型提供坚实电力支撑。国网陕西电力榆林供电公司创新采用"网格化"施工组织模式，运 用"基建e安全"数字化管控手段，实现安全、质量、进度"三统一"，确保工程顺利完成。 "两项工程投运进一步完善了陕西北部电网骨干网架，将有效提升区域电力输送效率和应急保障能 力，为全省能源保供和经济社会高质量发展注入新活力。"国网陕西电力相关负责人说。（记者：肖倩 见习记者：柯雁清） 12月3日，记者从国网陕西电力获悉：咸阳长武（昭仁）330千伏输变电工程、榆林靖边北330千伏 输变电工程近日相继投运。作为陕西电网建设重点项目，两项工程将显著优化区域电网结构，大幅提升 供电能力与可靠性，为全省迎峰度冬提供电力保障，为能源化工产业升级、乡村振兴等提供强劲动能。 11月28日，历时8个月建设的咸阳长武（昭仁）330千伏输变电工程竣工投运。该工程新建变电站占 地面积41亩，线路总长81.5千米，将重点保障彬州、长武、旬邑等地能源化 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with major indices closing lower, particularly the ChiNext index which fell by 1.12% [2] - Resource-related cyclical sectors, specifically metals and coal, showed strength with the non-ferrous metals and coal indices rising by 0.63% and 0.57% respectively [2] - Global metal prices are on the rise, with copper prices reaching a historical high of over $11,350 per ton, marking a 30% increase year-to-date [2] Group 2 - According to a report by CICC, the demand side will determine future price heights for metals, with short-term demand depending on downstream purchasing acceptance and long-term focus on AI and electricity growth trends [3] - The coal sector is expected to benefit from dual upward logic, with current coal prices at historical lows and potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics as winter heating demand increases [3] - The market is anticipated to maintain a loose liquidity environment in December, with recommendations to position in sectors expected to perform well, such as technology and certain cyclical and consumer sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Western Electric's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 19.29%, indicating strong growth [1] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is 22.14%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting an overall improvement in profitability [1] Market Outlook - The core growth in the first three quarters is expected to be driven by key products such as switches and transformers [1] - The investment scale for national grid construction in 2025 is projected to exceed 650 billion yuan, continuing a high growth trend [1] - Fixed asset investment by the Southern Power Grid is expected to surpass 175 billion yuan [1] Industry Demand - The demand for ultra-high voltage construction is rigid and sustained, driven by the delivery from the Shage Desert Base and the demand for hydropower in the southwest [1] - The company maintains a solid market position, with products like switchgear and transformers ranking among the industry leaders [1] - As a comprehensive leader in transmission and distribution equipment, the company is poised to benefit from the high demand in grid construction and a robust downstream market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 19.29% for the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 22.14%, reflecting improved profitability [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand for high-voltage equipment, with significant investments in the national grid projected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025 [1][10]. - The core products, including switches and transformers, are anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 939 million yuan, up 19.29% [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 22.14%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale effects and cost reduction efforts [3]. Product Contribution - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from the transformer segment was 4.94 billion yuan, up 10.4%, while the switch segment generated 4.25 billion yuan, a 4% increase [4]. - The company’s core products, including power transformers and high-voltage switches, are expected to see substantial revenue growth [4]. Market Outlook - The investment in the national grid is projected to continue at a high level, with the first nine months of 2025 seeing an investment completion of 398.2 billion yuan, a 21.1% increase year-on-year [10]. - The demand for high-voltage equipment remains strong, with significant procurement planned by the State Grid, including approximately 119 billion yuan for transformers and 135 billion yuan for combination electrical equipment [10].

Core Insights - The transformation of Yongxing Island from a primitive state with inadequate infrastructure to a vibrant community is largely attributed to the development of a stable power supply [1][3] - The establishment of a smart microgrid has significantly reduced the average power outage time for households from over 200 hours in 2012 to just 2.25 minutes last year [3] Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The South China Power Grid's establishment in Yongxing Island in 2012 marked a pivotal moment for the island's infrastructure [1] - The initial conditions on the island included frequent power outages, which hindered daily life and economic activities [1][2] Group 2: Community Engagement - The collaboration between power supply personnel and local residents has fostered a strong sense of community, with islanders actively participating in maintenance and repair efforts [2] - The relationship between the power supply team and the islanders has evolved into a partnership, emphasizing mutual support and shared responsibility [2] Group 3: Resilience and Preparedness - The team has developed a culture of preparedness, regularly training for extreme weather events such as typhoons and heavy rains [2][3] - The successful response to the challenges posed by natural disasters is attributed to extensive practice and teamwork [3] Group 4: Long-term Commitment - The commitment to improving the power supply and community welfare is reflected in the ongoing efforts to ensure every household has access to electricity [3] - The personal dedication of the power supply team members has created a lasting impact on the community, making them integral to the island's development [3]