离岸人民币市场

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渣打人民币环球指数连续上行 升至八个月以来高点
news flash· 2025-06-03 06:37
Core Insights - The Standard Chartered Renminbi Global Index (RGI) has risen to its highest level in eight months, reaching 5167, with an increase of 8.3% since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1 - The RGI has shown continuous growth in the first four months of 2025 [1] - Positive factors driving the offshore Renminbi market include stable capital flows in the northbound bond market, southbound stock market, and the consistent share of Renminbi trade settlement in goods trade [1]
巴克莱银行余玮杰:离岸人民币债市显韧性,四大积极变化驱动发行市场
券商中国· 2025-05-01 15:09
Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB bond market is experiencing significant growth, driven by various factors including increased issuance from the Chinese government and private institutions, as well as a favorable macroeconomic environment [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds is projected to reach a peak of 16,124 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 26% year-on-year increase from 2023 [3]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale exceeded 3,780 billion RMB, marking a 53.7% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [3]. - The secondary market for offshore RMB bonds remains resilient despite global market volatility, with trading prices tightening by 15-20 basis points since early April [6]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The Chinese Ministry of Finance has diversified its supply, establishing benchmarks for the market, including the issuance of green sovereign bonds in London and Hong Kong [3][4]. - There is a trend of longer maturities in bond issuance, with notable examples including Baidu's issuance of 10 billion RMB bonds and the Hong Kong Airport Authority's issuance of 10-year and 30-year bonds [4]. - The offshore RMB market is becoming more attractive for private institutions, which previously favored the US market for bond issuance [2]. Group 3: Changes in Issuer Landscape - The first quarter of 2025 saw new borrowers entering the market, issuing large-scale bonds, and structural innovations such as green bonds backed by multilateral institutions [4]. - The total issuance from international multilateral institutions reached 8.9 billion RMB in the first quarter of 2025, significantly up from 3.2 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The issuance volume of offshore RMB bonds is expected to remain stable, with a significant portion being short-term deposits that will likely be rolled over [7]. - There is a potential shift of investor interest from US Treasury bonds to RMB assets, which could lead to increased inflows into the offshore RMB market [7]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - There is a call for further development of cross-currency swaps and derivative markets to attract more foreign issuers [8]. - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is deemed crucial to enhance investor confidence and participation in the offshore RMB market [8]. - Expansion of the "Southbound Pass" plan is anticipated to provide more diversified investment options for domestic liquidity and enhance the attractiveness of the offshore RMB market [8].
专访巴克莱银行余玮杰:全球波动加剧下离岸人民币债市显韧性 四大积极变化驱动发行市场
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-04-30 04:19
Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB bond market has shown resilience despite global market volatility, driven by strong issuance growth and favorable conditions for private sector borrowers [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds is expected to reach a peak of 16,124 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 26% increase from 2023 [2]. - In Q1 2025, the issuance scale is projected to exceed 3,780 billion RMB, marking a 53.7% year-on-year growth compared to Q1 2023 [2]. - The market has seen a trend towards longer maturities, with notable issuances such as Baidu's 10 billion RMB bond and Hong Kong Airport Authority's 10 and 30-year bonds [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Factors - The Chinese Ministry of Finance has diversified its supply, establishing benchmarks in the market, including the issuance of green sovereign bonds [2][3]. - The liquidity and investor base in the offshore RMB market have deepened, providing better market access and competitive pricing for private issuers [2][3]. - Structural innovations have emerged, such as the issuance of green bonds backed by multilateral institutions, indicating a growing trend in the market [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Despite recent market volatility, the secondary market for offshore RMB bonds remains relatively strong, with trading prices tightening by 15-20 basis points since early April [5][6]. - High-quality offshore RMB bonds are seen as scarce, enhancing their value in a moderately loose macroeconomic environment [6]. - Investor sentiment is cautious, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach before making further allocations [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The issuance volume of offshore RMB bonds is expected to remain stable in the short term, influenced by global volatility and market re-pricing [6]. - There is optimism for medium to long-term recovery in demand and supply, driven by potential shifts in investor allocations from US Treasuries to RMB assets [6]. - Recommendations for further development of the offshore RMB market include enhancing cross-currency swaps and derivative markets, and implementing proactive macroeconomic policies [7].