其 他 报 告 2025年06月09日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3385 | 0.04 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10184 | -0.19 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3874 | -0.09 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2039 | -0.45 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.03 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.00 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23793 | -0.48 | 2.16 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8630 | -0.63 | 2.34 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21661 | -0.06 | 1.47 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42763 | 1.0 ...

Group 1 - Multiple important domestic data will be released this week, including May CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing, and import-export data [1][2] - The U.S. will release May CPI and PPI data, which are critical for assessing inflation trends [1][2] - Significant events include He Lifeng's visit to the UK and the opening of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 41 stocks will face lock-up expiration this week, with a total unlock volume of 2.054 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 44.123 billion yuan [3][4] - The top three companies by unlock market value are: Dameng Data (10.752 billion yuan), Huahai Qingke (10.4 billion yuan), and YN Technology (3.059 billion yuan) [3][4] Group 3 - He Lifeng will visit the UK and hold the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism [5] - The Ministry of Commerce addressed concerns regarding China's export control measures on rare earths, emphasizing compliance and communication with other countries [5] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 73.83 million ounces by the end of May [5] Group 4 - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 328.53 billion USD, reflecting a slight increase of 36 million USD from the previous month [6][7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting increased dividend payouts by listed companies to enhance investment value [7] - Central Huijin has become the actual controller of multiple securities and fund management companies [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing an "AI + Manufacturing" initiative to deepen the application of AI in the industrial sector [7] - The U.S. State Department has resumed processing student visas for international students planning to attend Harvard University [8] Group 6 - Two new stocks will be issued this week: Huazhi Jie on the Shanghai main board and Xinhenghui on the ChiNext [9][10] - The subscription limits and prices for these new stocks have been set, with Huazhi Jie priced at 19.88 yuan [10] Group 7 - Various securities firms are optimistic about sectors such as new consumption, banking, and insurance, indicating strong short-term demand and long-term investment value [11][12] - The focus on technology and high-end manufacturing sectors is expected to continue, particularly in defense and semiconductor industries [12][13] - The market is anticipated to experience a rotation of themes, with potential opportunities in new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technologies [13]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 作者 2025 年 06 月 06 日 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 唐梦涵 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060002 tangmenghan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：利率专题-6 月，债市关 键词》 2025-06-04 2 《固定收益：超预期的数据与极致的 可转债定期策略 证券研究报告 6 月，转债择券在"稳" 5 月，权益与转债市场行情复盘 医药与金融地产股领涨，科技 TMT 小幅回调。5 月，科创 50 指数下跌 3.5%，其余 A 股市场主要风格指数小幅收涨，中证 2000 领涨。产业链 看，科技 TMT 跌 0.87%；医药、金融地产板块领涨，分别录得 6.24%、 3.97%涨幅；先进制造、周期、消费板块分别涨 2.52%、2.23%、1.71%。 金融大盘转债领涨大盘，AAA、A 及以下转债表现强势，中评级转债弹性 偏弱。5 月，大盘转债涨 2. ...

调研纪要：未来几年，中国海油国内外产量将持续增长，主要来自渤海、圭亚那和巴西。公司追求相对 成本优势，不追求绝对成本下降。资本支出计划基于中长期油价假设，保持稳定预算和合理结构。公司 坚持油气并举、向气倾斜，推进天然气勘探，提高国内天然气产量。天然气项目稳产周期长、采收率 高、作业成本低，国内海气销售价格稳定。公司已建立完整技术体系，突破1500米超深水开发关键技 术，科技自主可控水平不断提高。 机构简介： 根据市场公开信息及6月4日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募久期投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 1）中国海油 （上海久期投资有限公司参与公司现场参观） 上海久期投资有限公司（简称"久期投资"）是一家专注于固定收益类投资的阳光私募资产管理机构，成 立于2013年12月，2014年4月获得中国基金业协会颁发的私募基金管理人资质。公司产品条线分为固定 收益类、固收增强类和宏观策略类，通过债券、股票和黑色大宗商品市场的大类资产配置和价值发掘， 为投资者创造长期可持续的稳健回报。"固收+"产品以利率趋势判断下的信用策略为基础策略，根据宏 观资产轮动判断，选择合适的资产种类如利率、可转债、权益资产等，分 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline this week, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.61%, the S&P 500 down by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1% [1] - The dollar index dropped by 0.82%, while copper and aluminum prices rose on the London Metal Exchange [1] Economic Events - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which negatively impacted European stock markets [1] - Recent bond auctions in Japan and the US were poorly received, raising concerns about global market liquidity [4][5] Investment Insights - Analysts are optimistic about sectors such as technology, high-dividend assets, and non-ferrous metals [8][11] - The potential for a decline in the dollar index is seen as beneficial for international non-ferrous metal prices [11] Upcoming Events - Japan will conduct several important bond auctions on May 28, June 3, and June 5, with the June 3 auction of 10-year bonds being particularly significant [4] - The 61st simulated stock trading competition is set to begin, with participants focusing on opportunities in controllable nuclear fusion and the pet economy [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the importance of developing a robust capital market in China as part of the financial power strategy, highlighting the need for investors to adapt their investment approaches to the new normal [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Market Context - The current global economic and geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, necessitating a stable and active capital market, which has become a top-level design priority [1]. - The recent secondary listing of CATL in Hong Kong set a record for the largest IPO in nearly three years, indicating a critical moment for the development of direct financing and capital markets in China [2]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Liu Jipeng argues that revitalizing the stock market is essential for reversing economic downturns and that a strong financial sector will enhance China's position in global power dynamics [2]. - Xiao Lisheng expresses optimism about the medium to long-term development of China's stock market, noting signs of stabilization in consumer spending and the real estate sector [3]. - Hu Xianghui discusses the journey of China's technological self-sufficiency and its importance in overcoming the middle-income trap, emphasizing sectors like AI and biotechnology as future investment opportunities [3]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Hou Wentao provides insights into the A-share market, identifying external tariffs and internal policies as key variables affecting market performance, and suggests that there are many tools available to support the market [4]. - The forum collectively aims to contribute to the high-quality development of China's financial market, encouraging investors to learn and adapt their strategies accordingly [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced significant volatility from April 16 to May 13, 2025, driven by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the evolution of the China-U.S. tariff conflict [1][2] - In the first phase (April 16-22), gold prices surged due to heightened risk aversion, with London spot gold breaking through $3,274 per ounce [2][3] - The second phase (April 23-May 6) saw gold prices fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce, influenced by liquidity tightening and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [4][5] - In the third phase (May 7-13), a joint statement from China and the U.S. to suspend 24% of mutual tariffs led to a sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly $50 to $3,218 per ounce [5][6] Group 2: Trade and Economic Implications - The suspension of tariffs is expected to boost market sentiment, with potential short-term rebounds in global stock markets, particularly in U.S. technology stocks and export-oriented companies [6][7] - China's trade with the U.S. showed short-term pressure but long-term resilience, with high-tech product exports increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [7][8] - The tariff suspension may lead to a recovery in exports of machinery and electrical products, while low-value goods like steel imports will continue to be suppressed [8][9] - The trade dynamics indicate a shift towards transshipment trade and adjustments in industrial chains, with companies potentially relocating production to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs [9][10] Group 3: Sectoral Analysis - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and demand release, while traditional manufacturing faces cost pressures and weak demand [9][10] - Long-term impacts include increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector in Q1 2025 [10][11] - The push for domestic autonomy in supply chains is accelerating, particularly in semiconductor equipment and industrial software, driven by the tariff conflict [11][12] Group 4: Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China from mid-April to early May 2025 appears stable, although the tariff conflict continues to exert significant influence on imports and exports [12][13] - The social financing scale is projected to be between 1.47 trillion and 1.48 trillion yuan in April, supported mainly by government bond net financing and corporate bond financing [13][14] - The real estate market shows a divergence in investment and sales, with a 9.9% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in Q1 2025, while transaction volumes in major cities increased by 14.7% in April [14][21]

Group 1 - The electronic industry is a technological pillar of modern society, with downstream applications in defense, communication, automotive, and healthcare, where semiconductors are a key segment for China's technological self-sufficiency [1] - The electronic industry is experiencing an upward cycle, driven by the rise of AI and robotics applications, with the release of DeepSeek R1 causing significant industry disruption [1] - The upcoming release of the R2 version of DeepSeek is expected to enhance the performance of domestic AI models, leading to a surge in demand for domestic AI applications and computing chips [1] Group 2 - China is a major supplier of optical modules globally, with leading manufacturers and stable production capacity, benefiting from the AI trend and achieving reasonable performance [2] - The electronic industry is projected to maintain a positive growth trend, with advancements in large models leading to diverse AI applications and the acceleration of domestic chip upgrades [2] - Humanoid robots are identified as a core scenario for the commercialization of AI, with domestic chip manufacturers like Rockchip (瑞芯微) supporting the intelligent upgrade of domestic robots [2]

面对全球经济格局加速重构、中美贸易摩擦与科技竞合交织的复杂形势，由 九方智投控股（ 9636.HK）旗下九方智投主办的"轻舟已过万重山"——九方金融研究所2025高端投资论坛将于5月 23日正式举办。 论坛汇聚杰出学者与业界领袖，聚焦 "金融强国战略"、"科技自主可控""中期策略 展望"三大核心议题 ，为投资者呈现一场思想盛宴。 其中， 中国政法大学教授、博导、中国行为法学会财经专业委员会会长、国家社科基金重大项目首 席专家刘纪鹏，将出席论坛并作《拉动股市是金融强国的战略举动》主旨演讲。 之前，刘纪鹏就曾 指出： "股市不仅仅关乎股民的财富，更是中国经济转型的一个重要战场。"在他的眼中，股市背后 承载的是整个国家经济复苏的期望和动能。 四大智囊聚首，共论破局之道 最后登场的将是九方金融研究所联席所长侯文涛博士。他将分享《我自坚韧，任尔何风 ——中期策 略展望》， 立足上半年 A股"韧性突围"的实践经验，结合政策工具箱发力点与产业升级新动能，为 投资者们揭示政策面、资金面、情绪面等共振下的结构性机遇。 图为参加九方金融研究所 2025高端投资论坛四位嘉宾 全媒体矩阵覆盖，打造投研风向标 本次论坛将通过九方智投 ...

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 5 月 19 日 计算机行业 2024 年年报 &2025 年一季报综述 2024 年营收稳增长， 25Q1 利润端显著改善 2024 年行业受宏观环境、政企预算下行以及减值损失扩大等影响，导致利润端承压。 2025Q1 整体业绩明显改善，盈利能力显著增强。2025 年在机器人、AI Agent、信创、 鸿蒙等持续推动下，行业有望多点开花，彰显增长韧性。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 建议关注科技自主可控相关企业，包括软通动力、达梦数据、寒武纪-U、云天励 飞-U 等；以及基本面良好、未来成长空间较为广阔的合合信息。建议关注九号公 司-WD、优必选、能科科技、麒麟信安等在机器人领域有布局的公司，以及在机 器人数据训练领域有布局的中科曙光、索辰科技，还有在大模型领域有布局的商 汤-W、科大讯飞、拓尔思、云赛智联、虹软科技等。外骨骼机器人板块建议关注 楚天科技、伟思医疗。 评级面临的主要风险 证券分析师：郑静文 jingwen.zheng@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010001 强于大市 宏观经济下行；信创推进不及预期； ...