Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of PVC is limited due to the high - production and high - inventory structure that is difficult to change in the short term. The high -开工 and weak - demand pattern persists for futures contracts before the 03 contract. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side. The supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 01 contract futures price is 4532, the East China spot price is 4500, the basis is - 32, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 300. The domestic PVC spot market price is stagnant and stable, with the disk price fluctuating weakly. The weekly supply remains high, and market transactions have become sluggish. The current prices in the East China region are 4400 - 4540 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC and 4450 - 4600 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [2]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - PVC is at a low valuation. Although factors such as anti - involution trading, real - estate market policies, and short - covering can drive a phased rebound, the high - production and high - inventory situation is hard to change in the short term. Before the 03 contract, futures contracts face a pattern of high -开工 and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may occur after the 03 contract. The expected inventory build - up during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the trading space of low - valuation factors. PVC warehouse receipts are still high, increasing the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historical low, and the supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year may exceed expectations, which is conducive to profit repair, but it is advisable to wait for substantial maintenance plans [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing aim to stabilize the real estate market by optimizing purchase restrictions and housing credit policies, with expectations for more cities to follow suit [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The adjustments are designed to implement the removal of unreasonable consumption restrictions on housing and to promote active real estate transactions [1] - The focus is on expanding domestic demand, as the real estate sector significantly influences investment and consumption through related industries like renovation and home appliances [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is undergoing adjustments primarily due to demographic changes and urbanization, leading to a "strong supply and weak demand" situation [1] - The current market conditions indicate a need for faster inventory digestion to achieve a balance between supply and demand, particularly in cities with population inflows [2] Group 3: Inventory Management - The existing inventory consists of unsold housing and second-hand homes, with the latter's transaction share increasing from less than 28% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 45% currently, and over 60% in major cities [2] - Encouraging local governments to acquire unsold properties for affordable housing can help quickly reduce market inventory and restore market confidence [2] Group 4: Market Stability - The rental yield in first-tier cities is recovering, and lower interest rates are making rental returns more attractive, contributing to market stability [3] - A comprehensive approach is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, balancing various aspects such as market and security, rental and purchase, and new and second-hand homes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing aim to stabilize the real estate market by optimizing purchase restrictions and housing credit policies, with expectations for more cities to follow suit [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Beijing has issued a notice to further optimize and adjust real estate policies, focusing on stabilizing the market [1] - The adjustments are in line with the requirement to eliminate unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption and are tailored to local conditions [1] - The central economic work conference has set a clear goal for next year's real estate work, emphasizing the need to stabilize the market and implement city-specific measures [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently experiencing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation due to a large stock of new homes and the inclusion of second-hand homes in the market [1] - The stock of unsold homes is significant, and local governments are encouraged to purchase these for use as affordable housing, which could help restore market confidence [2] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased from less than 28% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 45% currently, with major cities seeing over 60% [2] Group 3: Rental Market and Investment - Rental yields in first-tier cities are recovering, and declining interest rates are making rental returns more attractive, creating favorable conditions for market stability [3] - The relationship between market supply and demand has fundamentally changed, necessitating a comprehensive approach to stabilize the real estate market [3] - Cities should balance various aspects such as market and security, rental and purchase, and new and second-hand homes to effectively reduce inventory [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing aim to stabilize the real estate market by optimizing purchase restrictions and housing credit policies, with expectations for more cities to follow suit [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Beijing has issued a notice to further optimize and adjust real estate policies, focusing on stabilizing the market [1] - The adjustments are in line with the requirement to eliminate unreasonable restrictive measures on housing consumption and are tailored to local conditions [1] - The central economic work conference has set a clear goal for next year's real estate work, emphasizing the need to stabilize the market and implement city-specific measures [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently experiencing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation due to a large stock of new homes and the inclusion of second-hand homes in the market [1] - The stock of unsold homes should be encouraged to be purchased by local governments for use as affordable housing, which can help restore market confidence [2] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased from less than 28% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 45% currently, with major cities seeing over 60% [2] Group 3: Rental Market and Investment - Rental yields in first-tier cities are recovering, and declining interest rates are making rental returns more attractive, creating favorable conditions for market stability [3] - The relationship between market supply and demand has fundamentally changed, necessitating a comprehensive approach to stabilize the real estate market [3] - Cities should balance various aspects such as market and security, rental and purchase, and new and second-hand homes to effectively reduce inventory [3]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's government has announced further adjustments to real estate policies to stimulate the housing market amid a significant decline in real estate investment [1][2] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy relaxes home purchase conditions for non-Beijing residents and allows families with multiple children to buy an additional property within the Fifth Ring Road [1] - The mortgage interest rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, aiming to ease financial burdens on buyers [1] - The approval process for real estate development projects will shift from city-level to district-level, enhancing the efficiency of land acquisition [1] Group 2: Market Context - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real estate development investment in China decreased by 15.9% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, marking the largest decline of the year and a worsening from the 10.4% drop in the same period last year [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has prioritized stabilizing the real estate market for the upcoming year, with plans to implement a "see it, buy it" system for new home sales [2]

日前举行的中央经济工作会议明确提出"着力稳定房地产市场"，强调"因城施策控增量、去库存、优供 给"。一系列部署释放"稳"的信号，为房地产市场平稳健康发展指明方向。 当前，我国房地产市场供求关系已发生重大变化。一方面，住房供给从总量短缺转为总量基本平衡、结 构性供给不足；另一方面，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间，人民群众 对"好房子"形成新期待，房地产仍有较大发展潜力。 着力稳定房地产市场，需保持市场供需动态平衡。各地根据自身人口增长、产业发展、资源禀赋等要 素，控好土地盘子，从源头把好新增住宅用地供应关，并结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量用 地。同时，对过去房地产高速发展时期形成的高库存，要按照中央部署落实好化解任务，通过政府收 储、金融工具支持以及进一步便利和激活市场需求等途径加以消化。 （来源：劳动午报） 转自：劳动午报 值得关注的是，会议明确提出"鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等"，将进一步打通市场存量与 民生保障之间的通道。这既有助于市场缓解资金压力、加速去库存，又能拓宽保障性住房供给来源，缓 解部分群体住房困难。市场与保障更有效衔接，将有助于稳定房地产市场，助力实 ...

新华社北京12月23日电 题：把"稳"字落到实处推动房地产市场健康发展 房地产发展的最终落脚点是民生，要以高质量供给满足居民不断升级的住房需求。适老化、适儿化等新 需求涌现，舒适度、智能化成为许多人购房的新期待。会议要求"有序推动'好房子'建设"，正是"优供 给"的要义所在。未来的房子，既要建得好，也要改得巧。把新房子建成"好房子"，把老房子逐步改造 成"好房子"，打造安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的宜居家园。 日前举行的中央经济工作会议明确提出"着力稳定房地产市场"，强调"因城施策控增量、去库存、优供 给"。一系列部署释放"稳"的信号，为房地产市场平稳健康发展指明方向。 保持房地产市场稳定关系经济运行、关乎民生福祉。落实好已出台政策举措，推进新旧模式平稳有序转 换，必将进一步形成房地产市场持续稳定发展的内生动力，为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实支撑。 当前，我国房地产市场供求关系已发生重大变化。一方面，住房供给从总量短缺转为总量基本平衡、结 构性供给不足；另一方面，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间，人民群众 对"好房子"形成新期待，房地产仍有较大发展潜力。 着力稳定房地产市场，需保持市场供需动态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market as a priority for the upcoming year [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The conference outlined four key tasks for the next year, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market [1][3]. - Policies will be adjusted and optimized to meet the housing needs of residents, including both rigid and improved housing demands [1][3]. - Strategies will include controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and enhancing supply through various measures such as revitalizing existing land and acquiring unsold properties for affordable housing [1][3]. Group 2: New Development Model - A new development model for real estate will be established, which includes implementing a main bank system in financing and promoting the sale of existing homes [1][3]. - The conference highlighted the importance of regulating pre-sale fund supervision to mitigate risks and protect buyers' rights [1][3]. Group 3: Urban Modernization - The conference addressed the modernization of urban construction, emphasizing meticulous efforts in urban renewal, renovation of old communities, and the establishment of complete communities [1][3]. - Continuous improvement of urban infrastructure, such as gas pipelines and underground networks, was also prioritized [1][3]. Group 4: Construction Industry Upgrade - There is a call to accelerate the quality upgrade of the construction industry by promoting smart and green construction, as well as regulating market order [1][3]. - The foundation for high-quality industry development will be strengthened through improved legal frameworks, standards, and technological talent support [1][3].

本报北京12月23日电(记者廖睿灵)记者从全国住房城乡建设工作会议上获悉，2025年，城市更新取得重 要进展，保交房任务全面完成。 住房城乡建设部有关负责人表示，将进一步发挥房地产项目"白名单"制度作用，支持房地产企业合理融 资需求。城市政府要用足用好房地产调控自主权，适时调整优化房地产政策，支持居民刚性和改善性住 房需求，推动房地产市场平稳运行。 具体来看，38个城市开展老旧住房自主更新、原拆原建。42个城市实施房屋全生命周期安全管理制度试 点。推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，开展物业服务领域突出问题集中整治，推动问题整 改。完成106个完整社区试点，建设改造养老、托育等各类服务设施2000多个，新增停车位2.6万个，增 补提升公共活动场地和公共绿地71.3万平方米。 2026年，着力稳定房地产市场有哪些重点？住房城乡建设部方面表示，要因城施策控增量、去库存、优 供给，结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量用地，推动收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、 宿舍、人才房等。优化和精准实施保障性住房供应，实施房屋品质提升工程，有序推进"好房子"建设。 ...

刚刚结束的全国住房城乡建设工作会议，对明年城市更新、房地产工作提出若干具体要求。抓核心找重 点，明年如何稳定房地产市场，路径更清晰，精准施策成为核心逻辑。 第三，要用多重制度防风险稳信心。按要求，"白名单"制度要继续积极发挥作用，房地产企业的合理融 资需求要支持。同时，要做实房地产开发项目公司制，房地产融资要推行主办银行制，推进现房销售 制，实现"所见即所得"，还在继续实行预售的，要规范预售资金监管。 总的来看，明年如何稳定楼市，政策不是"一刀切"，而是供需两端精准发力、存量增量协同优化的一 套"精准组合拳"。 （总台央视记者 杨潇 徐静） 按照住房城乡建设部的要求， 首先，要处理好"存量"。住房城乡建设部表示，各地要结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量用地， 推动收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、人才房等。这样的要求很具体，既给各城市的闲 置房源找到了出口，又补上了民生保障的短板。 其次，要精准激活"需求"。按要求，城市政府要用足用好房地产调控自主权，适时优化政策。同时，聚 焦"好房子"建设，用品质升级来更好满足改善性需求，让"卖旧买新"的通道持续畅通。 ...