Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between the US and Japan on a 15% reciprocal tariff is seen as a positive surprise, boosting market sentiment and leading to a significant rebound in Japanese stocks, particularly in the automotive sector [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The US will implement a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japan, while Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets for rice and automobiles [2]. - The initial plan was to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting August 1, but the new agreement is viewed positively for Japanese companies, allowing them to absorb the lower tariff rate [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the Nikkei index surged by 1,396 points, closing at 41,171 points, marking a 3.51% increase, the highest in about a year [1]. - Automotive stocks, which had been heavily sold off, saw strong rebounds, with Toyota's stock rising by 13.65% and Honda by 10.34% [3]. - Financial stocks also experienced significant gains, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group up 4.67% and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group up 5.52% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe this agreement could mark a turning point in market dynamics, with July 23 potentially being remembered as a key historical date [5]. - The upcoming earnings season is expected to bring more positive outlooks from companies, further supporting market growth [3].

Group 1 - The core message from the Federal Reserve's John Williams indicates that the impact of tariffs on the economy will soon become apparent, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and a cautious stance on monetary policy [3][12] - The market's reaction to macroeconomic changes, such as tariffs and economic slowdown, will ultimately be reflected in trading behaviors within capital markets [3][12] Group 2 - Ordinary investors often focus on surface-level news and fail to recognize the true actions of market participants, which can lead to anxiety over trading decisions [5][10] - Two case studies illustrate the difference in trading behaviors: "Shenzhou Cell" showed clear institutional involvement in short covering, while "Hua Dong Pharmaceutical" appeared to be driven by short-term funds [6][9] Group 3 - Quantitative data can reveal market patterns, with specific indicators showing the level of institutional activity in trading behaviors [11][12] - Understanding how funds will respond to macroeconomic factors is crucial for determining investment returns, rather than solely focusing on the economic indicators themselves [12][14] Group 4 - Recommendations for investors include avoiding being swayed by surface news, distinguishing between market noise and real signals, and valuing quantitative data in trading behavior analysis [16]

Core Insights - Duolingo Inc's shares have experienced a decline of 4.7%, currently priced at $360.67, marking the eighth consecutive weekly loss and a significant drop from the record high of $544.93 on May 14, although still showing an 11% year-to-date gain [1] Group 1 - The stock is approaching its 200-day moving average, indicating a historically bullish signal for potential buyers [2] - Duolingo's stock is within 0.75 of the trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR), having spent over 80% of the last 10 days and two months above this level. In the past three years, similar conditions led to an average gain of 26.2% one month later, potentially bringing the stock back to $455 [3] Group 2 - Short interest has increased, now representing 6.1% of the stock's available float, suggesting potential for a short squeeze if the stock rebounds [4] - The 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.67 indicates a higher level of pessimism among options traders, ranking above 93% of readings from the past year, which could provide tailwinds for the stock [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a bumper harvest is suppressing both bottom-fishing buying and short-covering in the soybean market, raising questions about whether CBOT soybean prices can stabilize above the $10 mark [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of high yields is impacting market dynamics, leading to reduced buying interest from investors looking to capitalize on lower prices [1] - Short-covering activities are also being restrained due to the prevailing outlook of abundant supply in the soybean market [1] - The critical price level of $10 for CBOT soybeans is under scrutiny as market participants assess the balance between supply expectations and demand [1]

Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Major steel mills in Shanxi Province have restricted crude steel production by about 6 million tons. Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished products may shrink. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents. There is no obvious increase on the demand side, and the black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump's latest tariff policy has boosted the market's risk - aversion sentiment and the price of gold, but the rising US dollar has suppressed gold. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting are hawkish, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the time of interest rate cuts. Gold is expected to maintain high - level consolidation [4] Group 4: Logs - The spot market price is running weakly. The price in the Shandong market has dropped by 10 yuan, and the price in the Jiangsu market has remained stable. The expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas has eased, and rubber tapping work has gradually resumed. The demand for glue series has dragged down, showing a differentiation from the price of raw material cup lump. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has declined. The contradiction between supply and demand at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The weather in the US Midwest is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. Due to the good performance of US soybean export sales, short - covering has boosted US soybeans. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the bean meal inventory has continued to rise, and bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - The oil price may return to narrow - range fluctuations due to the lack of clear guidance. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with the oil price; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow the cost fluctuations in the short term; although the raw materials have recovered in the short term, the supply - demand of MEG is weakening, and the upward space of the disk is suppressed [8] Group 8: Pig - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is strong, and the pig sales in many northern regions are smooth. The pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the pig supply in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [9]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock price surged by 7.2% to $23.59, despite a general market decline, raising confusion among analysts due to the lack of substantial positive news driving this increase [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The semiconductor sector has seen a rotation of funds, which may have contributed to Intel's stock price increase [4]. - Over the past month, semiconductor stocks in the Russell 3000 index averaged a return of approximately 10%, while Intel's stock rose about 15% in the same period, despite a 31% decline over the past 12 months [4][6]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely raised the target price for Intel but maintained a "hold" rating, indicating that the price increase was not directly linked to this adjustment [3]. - Only 6% of analysts currently rate Intel as a "buy," significantly lower than the average 63% "buy" rating for semiconductor stocks in the Russell 3000 index, reflecting a cautious long-term outlook for Intel [6]. Group 3: Short Selling Dynamics - Short covering may have played a role in the stock's rise, as short sellers borrow and sell stocks hoping to repurchase them at lower prices [6]. - Intel's short interest is approximately 3%, making it a relatively popular short target, with a total short value of about $3 billion, the highest among semiconductor stocks [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate. The spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [1]. - On July 3, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to short - covering and position adjustment before the US Independence Day long - weekend. However, the gains were limited by good US weather and sufficient global supply [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4141 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 yuan (+0.10%), and 4153 yuan/ton at night, up 5 yuan (+0.12%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2958 yuan/ton during the day session, up 11 yuan (+0.37%), and 2971 yuan/ton at night, up 11 yuan (+0.37%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1048.25 cents/bushel, up 0.5 cents (+0.05%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 292.4 dollars/short - ton, up 1.7 dollars (+0.58%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal is 2870 - 2900 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 or +20 yuan compared to the previous day. The spot basis is M2509 - 50/-30, remaining unchanged [1]. - In East China, the price is 2850 - 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 or 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In South China, the price is 2860 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.2 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 44.85 million tons per day two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 64.21 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared with 47.12 million tons per week two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 3, 2025, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly due to short - covering and position adjustment before the US Independence Day long - weekend. But the gains were limited by good US weather and sufficient global supply. Trump was to speak in Iowa, and market rumors about his speech led to a sharp rise in soybean prices on Wednesday. The overall weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be good. The US Midwest will have mild weather and scattered showers in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for crop growth. The US Department of Agriculture reported that private exporters sold 22.6 million tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 season [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybeans is 0, only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the report day [3].

Group 1 - The technical outlook for CBOT soybeans remains weak, with a possibility of breaking below the two-month low [1] - CBOT corn has short-term support, and any changes could trigger short covering [1]

豆粕生猪：等待报告指引 连粕减仓上行 宋歌 songge@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03112006 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018625 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗兴 JIDGHI FILTURE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期間 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 6月30日 | 元/吨 | 2999 | 2987 | 12.00 | 0.40% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 6月30日 | 元/吨 | 2713 | 2707 | 6.00 | 0.22% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 6月30日 | 元/吨 | 2961 | 2946 | 15.00 | 0.51% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 6月30日 | 元/吨 | 2301 | 2290 | 11.00 | 0.48% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 05 | 6月30日 | 元 ...

2025 年 06 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：反弹震荡，规避 USDA 报告风险 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 周五，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘上涨，主要受到空头回补和美元走弱的支持。交易商调整 仓位，他们的注意力转向下周一美国农业部公布的种植面积、季度库存和作物进展周报。一位分析师称， 大豆市场经过大幅抛售后涌现了一些空头回补。本周大豆市场已经消化了相当一部分的利空情绪。由于投 资者预计美国今年可能进一步降息，美元进一步走弱，也支撑了大宗商品市场。美国农业部发布的单日出 口销售报告显示，私人出口商报告向墨西哥销售 119,746 吨大豆，在 2025/26 年度交货。然而，美国和 全球供应前景良好仍然抑制了价格。气象预报显示，未来几天美国中西部天气温暖多雨，有助于大豆作物 生长。（汇易网） | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元 ...