美债收益率下行
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温和通胀叠加稳定就业数据 美债收益率连续第二日下行
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-12 13:48
Group 1 - The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows a 0.1% increase in May, leading to an annual rate of 2.6%, indicating a more moderate inflation environment [1][3] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 248,000, the highest level since October of the previous year, suggesting potential labor market weakness [3] - The core PPI also rose by 0.1% in May, below economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, reflecting subdued inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - European Central Bank's Vice President expressed greater concern over weak economic growth rather than inflation risks, as Eurozone inflation fell to 1.9% in May [4] - UK economic data revealed a 0.3% contraction in April, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.1% decline, attributed to global trade tariffs and domestic tax increases [4] - Japanese investors slightly reduced holdings in overseas bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings in Japanese long-term bonds [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury issued $142 billion in bonds, indicating strong demand despite concerns over government debt and deficits [6] - The U.S. budget deficit for May totaled $316 billion, a 9% decrease from the previous year, but the year-to-date deficit increased by 14% to $1.36 trillion [7] - Legislation to create a stablecoin framework backed by U.S. debt could bolster the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, potentially generating an additional $2 trillion in demand for U.S. bonds [7]
秦氏金升:6.9伦敦金多空胶着,黄金行情走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 14:42
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is currently experiencing a cautious and neutral sentiment, influenced by factors such as the dollar's performance, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical tensions [3] - Gold prices briefly fell below the important threshold of $3300, with a subsequent rebound to around $3328 due to a pullback in the dollar and declining bond yields, but the momentum for further increases is limited due to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The analysis suggests that while there is still some safe-haven demand for gold, it has not been strong enough to drive significant price increases, and the market remains cautious ahead of key negotiations among major economies [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a weak downward trend, with significant resistance around $3397 and key support levels at $3273 and $3244 [5] - The four-hour chart shows that gold prices are forming a downward breakout pattern, with the potential to test lower support levels if the price falls below $3300 [5] - Recommendations for trading strategies include entering short positions if the price breaks below $3308 or considering short positions on minor rebounds near $3325 [5]
黄金强势格局确立,6月6日走势预测及低多布局点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 02:23
Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with prices experiencing both strong rallies and sharp declines. The focus should be on preserving capital and developing strategies to respond to market changes [1]. Gold Market Analysis - On June 5, during the U.S. trading session, spot gold prices significantly retreated to around $3359.5 per ounce, yet the overall trend remains strong. Factors supporting gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, declining U.S. Treasury yields, fiscal concerns in the U.S., and ongoing trade and geopolitical risks [4]. - The market is currently in a cautious state, with attention focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll data. Technically, gold still has short-term upward potential, and if it can effectively break through the resistance level of $3385, it may open up further upside [4]. - Global economic uncertainties, particularly unexpected contractions in the U.S. services sector, weak employment data, and the impact of new tariffs from the Trump administration, are providing strong upward momentum for gold prices. Additionally, rising tensions between major powers and developments in U.S.-EU trade negotiations are further stimulating buying interest in the gold market, increasing the likelihood of gold prices testing the critical $3400 level [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently stabilizing above the daily Bollinger middle band (3355), but the Bollinger bands are not opening up, indicating limited upward space constrained by previous highs and the upper band resistance around 3405. It is advised not to be overly bullish [5]. - A breakthrough above $3400 to $3404 should be monitored for the potential formation of a bullish moving average arrangement to initiate a one-sided trend. The 4-hour cycle shows a contracting Bollinger band and non-diverging moving averages, indicating a clear upward oscillation trend. Caution is advised against chasing highs below $3400 [5]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include going long near $3360 with a stop loss at $3352 and a target range of $3392 to $3412. Conversely, a short position can be initiated near $3412, with additional shorts at $3415 and $3417, a stop loss at $3425, and a target range of $3390 to $3380 [7].