Core Insights - The US dollar is expected to achieve its first monthly increase since 2025 in July, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and strong economic performance in the US [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated he is not in a hurry to lower interest rates and did not provide a timeline for potential rate cuts [1] - Investor confidence in the resilience of the US economy has increased following the resolution of uncertainties related to President Trump's chaotic tariff policies and a series of trade agreements [1] - The euro is one of the biggest losers this month, with expectations of a nearly 3% decline as investors withdraw bets based on the assumption that "European markets may offer more opportunities" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is experiencing fluctuations near a two-month high, supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and Japan's central bank raising its inflation forecast while keeping rates unchanged [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish position has strengthened the dollar, with the US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate coming in at 3%, which was better than expected, further boosting the dollar's performance [4] - The market is now focused on the upcoming tariff deadline on August 1, where countries failing to reach a trade agreement with the US will face high tariffs, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1] Group 2 - Other major currencies are under pressure due to the strength of the dollar, with the euro recently rising by 0.1% to 1.1412 USD but having fallen by 3.2% this month [5] - The British pound is hovering near a two-and-a-half-month low, currently at 1.3255 USD, with a monthly decline of approximately 3.5% [5] - The Australian dollar has increased by 0.3% to 0.6454 USD, but has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 2% this month [8]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar may rise following the release of strong US GDP data and a cautious stance on interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Economic Data - The US second-quarter economic growth data is set to be released at 20:30 Beijing time [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy decision will be announced the following day at 02:00, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [1] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent increase in the dollar appears to be related to position adjustments ahead of key events rather than a fundamental reassessment of its value [1] - The potential rise in the dollar is expected to be limited [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has turned weak, and the outlook for copper prices is poor. The anti - involution speculation in the futures market has ended, and the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates this week is extremely low, with the US dollar rising continuously. The market remains weak, and non - ferrous metals have all declined. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the future [1][2]. Group 3: Market Performance Summary - **Price Changes**: Shanghai copper closed at 79,000, and the spot price was 79,270. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the spot premium dropped to 270 points. The spot basis premium dropped to 95 points, and spot trading was poor. LME spot premium narrowed slightly to a discount of - 54 dollars, indicating weak external spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8.05, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 270 points [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: US copper inventories increased significantly this week, London copper inventories rose, and Shanghai copper inventories decreased slightly [1]. - **Exchange Rate and Premium**: The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to 51.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. Group 4: Technical and Supply - Demand Analysis - **Technical Analysis**: London copper fluctuated slightly higher, trading around 9,800 dollars. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom and fell slightly, closing at 7,9000, with a weak technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the off - season, the spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor. With the approaching implementation of US tariffs, the demand for London and Shanghai copper has decreased significantly [2].

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 2.4 basis points, returning above 4.43%, approaching a daily high of 4.4392% [1] - There was a significant V-shaped reversal in the short term, with U.S. stocks initially dropping to a daily low of 4.4014% [1] - Spot gold declined approximately 0.4%, reaching a daily low of $3341.15, and exhibited an M-shaped trend, rising to a daily high of $3375.01 at 15:30 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.05%, currently at 97.900 points, showing a W-shaped trend, with a daily high of 98.100 points reached at 14:22 [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.2%, with a cumulative rise of over 0.7% for the week [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.2% against the Canadian dollar [2] - The British pound fell by 0.6% against the US dollar, marking the second consecutive month of contraction in the UK economy, leading to the worst eight-month decline for the pound [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. airstrikes against Iran have prompted investors to exit significant short positions on the dollar [1] - The airstrikes are seen as a catalyst for hedge funds and CTAs to unwind their bearish dollar positions, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards a slow appreciation of the dollar [1] - The euro, pound, and Swedish krona are particularly vulnerable to large momentum long position liquidations due to this shift in sentiment [1] Group 2 - The strategist continues to favor long positions in euro/Swedish krona as a hedge against deteriorating global risk sentiment and the fading of 'sell America' sentiment, with a target price of 11.40 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Monex Europe analysts suggests that if the Federal Reserve suppresses market expectations for interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, the US dollar may strengthen [1] Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut in June, but recent US data indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease policies before the fourth quarter [1] - Inflation remains high due to tariffs, which are expected to further increase price pressures [1] - The labor market remains robust, contradicting expectations of an economic slowdown [1] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve has limited options other than to delay market easing expectations and emphasize the resilience of the potential economic conditions [1]