Economic Outlook - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy are already in recession, and if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates further, the scope of the recession may expand [1][3] - Bessent emphasized that the current obstacle in the real estate market is the mortgage interest rates, suggesting that a reduction in rates by the Federal Reserve could end the recession in the housing sector [1] Government Spending and Inflation - Bessent noted that the Trump administration has reduced government spending, decreasing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP from 6.4% to 5.9%, which should help curb inflation [3] - A study from MIT indicated that 42% of the severe inflation in 2022 was due to excessive government spending, implying that continued spending cuts could lead to lower inflation levels [3] Federal Reserve Actions - On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned that there are differing views on the policy direction for December, indicating that further rate cuts are not guaranteed [3]

Economic Overview - Approximately 22 states in the U.S. are in recession or on the brink of it, accounting for one-third of the national economy [1] - The U.S. economy appears stable on the surface but is experiencing significant internal division, with California and New York being critical to determining whether the country will enter a recession [1][11] GDP and Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first negative growth in three years, raising alarms in the market [3] - Michigan, once a hub for the automotive industry, is facing economic difficulties due to ongoing tariff impacts, despite positive financial reports from General Motors and Ford [3] Employment Trends - Nearly 700,000 layoffs have occurred in the U.S. in the first five months of 2025, an 80% increase year-on-year, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Job cuts are prevalent across various sectors, including construction, manufacturing, technology, and finance, with healthcare and hospitality being the only sectors still hiring [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The federal government shutdown starting October 1 has forced around 800,000 federal employees into unpaid leave, with over 70,000 working without pay [7] - The shutdown has delayed the release of important employment data and consumer price index reports, limiting the Federal Reserve's decision-making resources [7] Tariff Policies - The average effective tariff rate faced by U.S. consumers has reached 17.9%, the highest since 1934, significantly impacting consumer prices [9] - Economists predict that new tariffs could reduce GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.1 percentage points by 2025 [8] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence is declining, and spending is slowing, with many middle- and low-income families struggling despite stable employment [11] - California and New York, which together account for over 20% of the national economy, are under pressure to maintain growth [11][12] Global Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth, with the U.S. expected to follow suit as a leading developed economy [14] - The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, facing significant challenges from trade policies, government shutdowns, and employment pressures, but there is potential for stabilization if key states can maintain their economic footing [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. economy is facing multiple serious issues, with the current recovery benefiting only a small segment of the population, while ordinary citizens are struggling due to economic stagnation [1] Economic Indicators - Despite some common indicators suggesting a stable economy, a deeper analysis reveals significant problems within the U.S. economy [1] - There is an increase in loan defaults and credit card delinquencies, indicating that consumers are increasingly opting for cheaper food options [1] Impact on Consumers - Middle and low-income consumers are experiencing significant hardships, exacerbated by the uncertainty created by government economic policies [1] - The number of long-term unemployed individuals has risen sharply, particularly affecting minority groups such as African Americans, who are finding it more difficult to secure employment in the current environment [1] Wealth Disparity - Although the New York stock market has seen gains driven by technology stocks, the wealth distribution is heavily skewed, with the top 10% of U.S. households owning 87% of the stock, leaving low and middle-income individuals unable to benefit from capital markets [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. economy is facing multiple serious issues, with the current recovery benefiting only a few, while ordinary people are struggling due to economic stagnation [1][5] - There is an increase in loan defaults and credit card delinquencies in the U.S., with consumers showing a preference for cheaper food options. The number of long-term unemployed individuals has significantly risen, particularly among minority groups [3] - The Bank of England's governor warns of a potential repeat of the financial crisis, citing the recent bankruptcies of U.S. auto parts manufacturer "First Brand" and subprime lender "Three Colors" as alarming signs for high-risk lending in the private credit market [4][7] Group 2 - Despite some common indicators suggesting a stable U.S. economy, a deeper analysis reveals significant underlying problems, particularly affecting middle and low-income consumers who are struggling due to government economic policies creating uncertainty [5] - The practices of bundling loans into bonds by "Three Colors" and using invoices as collateral for credit by "First Brand" are reminiscent of strategies that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns among financial authorities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is at risk of entering a mild recession, which may lead to more significant interest rate cuts and a weakening of the dollar [1] Economic Outlook - The potential for a mild recession in the U.S. economy could trigger larger interest rate reductions [1] - A weaker dollar may result from the anticipated economic downturn and subsequent monetary policy adjustments [1]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy, previously described as resilient, is now facing significant challenges due to a government shutdown that has lasted 15 days, resulting in an estimated economic loss of approximately $1.5 billion per day, totaling around $15 billion so far [3][5] - The current GDP growth rate is around 1.6%, and the shutdown's economic losses could potentially erase half of this quarter's growth [3][5] Historical Context - The U.S. has experienced 21 government shutdowns since 1976, with the longest lasting 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, which resulted in over $11 billion in economic losses and affected over 200,000 employees [5] - The current situation is exacerbated by a political stalemate between Republicans and Democrats, with conflicting priorities on budget cuts and social welfare [7][9] Employment and Inflation - The September employment report revealed only 89,000 new non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 150,000, marking the worst performance since December of the previous year [5] - Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.3% in September, core inflation remains around 4%, far from the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5] Political Dynamics - The current political deadlock is characterized by a lack of effective governance, with only 17% of respondents in a Gallup poll believing Congress can govern effectively, a figure lower than during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic [7] - The Biden administration faces pressure to compromise, but doing so may be perceived as an admission of fiscal mismanagement ahead of the upcoming elections [9] Fiscal Challenges - The projected federal deficit for this year is approximately $1.7 trillion, a 23% increase from the previous year, with total national debt exceeding $34 trillion, accounting for over 120% of GDP [10] - The reliance on consumer debt is highlighted by the record high of $1.13 trillion in credit card debt as of the second quarter, indicating a fragile economic foundation [12][14] Structural Issues - The current economic situation is described as structurally fatigued rather than a temporary setback, with ongoing job losses and financial strain on households [14][16] - The combination of fiscal constraints, inflation, and employment challenges suggests that mere rhetoric will not resolve the underlying issues facing the economy [16]

Economic Activity - Overall economic activity in the U.S. has shown little change, with some regions reporting slight to moderate growth, while others indicate stagnation or slight decline [1] - The labor market remains stable, but demand is generally weak across most Federal Reserve districts [1][2] Inflation and Costs - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are contributing to rising inflation, with companies struggling to absorb costs or pass them on to consumers [2][6] - Consumer spending has slightly decreased, particularly in retail, as inflation and economic uncertainty lead to a divergence in spending across income groups [2][7] Labor Market Trends - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with stable employment levels but low demand for labor across various sectors [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is expected to lead to a gradual decrease in monthly job additions, stabilizing around 8,000 by mid-next year [3] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has initiated a preventive rate cut to counteract employment slowdown, with expectations of further cuts in the coming months [5][8] - The current monetary policy environment is characterized by uncertainty, with potential for more aggressive rate cuts depending on economic data and political pressures [9][10] Future Economic Outlook - The probability of a recession in the U.S. is currently estimated at around 30%, with risks including the negative impact of tariffs on growth and inflation [3][4] - The Fed's actions and the political landscape, particularly with upcoming elections, may influence future monetary policy and economic stability [10]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly, with some regions reporting slight to moderate growth, while others show stagnation or slight declines [1] - The report highlights that inflation is being driven up by tariffs imposed by the government, leading to challenges for businesses in absorbing costs or passing them on to customers [2][3] - The labor market remains stable, but demand is generally weak across most Federal Reserve districts [1][2] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with stable employment levels but low demand for labor across various sectors [1][3] - Employers are resorting to layoffs and natural attrition to reduce workforce numbers due to weak demand and economic uncertainty [1][3] - Immigration policies are contributing to labor shortages in industries such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing [1] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Rising costs from imports, tariffs, and service expenses are accelerating input costs for businesses, with some passing these costs onto consumers [2][6] - Overall consumer spending has slightly declined, particularly in retail, with a growing divide in spending patterns among different income groups [2][7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with core goods inflation rising, particularly in categories like clothing and vehicles [6][7] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its trend of interest rate cuts, with a consensus for further reductions in October and December [8][9] - The current economic environment presents a complex scenario of employment risks and inflation pressures, influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions [9][10] - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve leadership in the future could lead to increased rate cuts, especially in response to significant economic downturn signals [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing significant structural pressures despite a 3.8% GDP growth in Q2, with 22 out of 50 states already in recession or contraction, indicating a nationwide trend [1] Economic Conditions - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi reported that the recession is most severe in Washington D.C. due to large-scale federal layoffs and budget cuts, affecting neighboring states like Maryland and Virginia [1] - States reliant on manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, and mining are particularly impacted by high tariff policies and restrictive immigration measures [1] - California and New York, as core economic states, are currently in a "struggling" state, with their economic stability crucial to avoiding a nationwide downturn [1] Labor Market - The U.S. labor market shows signs of "hollowing out," with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years [2] - Key warning signals include a decline in labor participation rates among young college graduates and an accelerated exit of older workers from the labor market [2] - The number of retirees has surpassed the number of new college graduates, leading to a shortage of new labor [2] Consumer Confidence and Spending - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 94.2 in September 2025, the lowest in five months, indicating pressure on consumer spending [3] - Many middle- and low-income families are under debt pressure and experiencing slow wage growth, leading to a "barely holding on" situation [3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.0%-4.25% as a preventive measure against labor market deterioration [3] - Economists argue that while monetary policy can alleviate short-term pressures, it cannot offset long-term burdens from tariffs, fiscal expansion, and structural labor issues [3] Economic Forecasts - The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) has raised its growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 2026, expecting GDP growth of 1.8% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 1.3% [3] - However, the forecast for job creation has been downgraded, with an expected average of only 60,000 new jobs per month in 2025, down from 87,000 [3] Inflation Outlook - NABE members predict that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% in 2025 and decrease to 2.5% by the end of 2026, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [4] - The uncertainty in policy environment makes predictions for the U.S. economy in 2025 particularly challenging [4] Overall Economic Sentiment - A survey indicated that 49% of respondents believe the U.S. economy is worsening, with 33% stating the country is already in recession [4] - The U.S. economy is at a sensitive crossroads, with significant discrepancies between macro data and micro realities, compounded by policy uncertainty and structural imbalances [4]

本报记者 陈子帅 本报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 多家金融机构近日对美国经济状况发出警告。国际信用评估机构穆迪公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪表 示，美国将近一半（22个）的州已处在经济衰退和收缩状态；美国最大银行之一摩根大通的首席执行官 杰米·戴蒙警告称，政府开支、通货膨胀以及美国现任政府的关税政策，最早可能在2026年引发本国经 济衰退；美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯则认为，特定年龄群体的劳动参与率下降和失业率上升，是美国 经济衰退的两个重要"预警信号"。 衰退几乎遍及全美 就在上个月，美国商务部公布的数据显示，2025年二季度美国经济环比增长3.8%，高于市场普遍预 期；劳工部公布的非农业部门就业数据显示，美国8月份失业率较上月增加0.1个百分点升至4.3%，创近 4年来新高。 马克·赞迪在接受美国《财富》杂志采访时表示，尽管美国整体的经济数据表现强劲，但实际上该国将 近一半（22个）的州已处在经济衰退和萎缩状态。许多中低收入家庭即便就业稳定，但仍受债务压力和 薪资增长放缓影响，处于"勉强支撑"的状态。 根据穆迪的研究，衰退程度最严重的是华盛顿哥伦比亚特区。赞迪表示，这在意料之中，因为今年联邦 政府已实施大规模裁员 ...