Group 1 - The rise of a major power is fundamentally linked to economic growth, which serves as the foundation for social systems and national strength [3] - China's economic development has been rapid since the end of World War II, particularly after the reform and opening-up policy, making it the world's second-largest economy [3] - Western institutions predict that by 2030, China's economy will surpass that of the United States, becoming the largest in the world, which is 20 years earlier than previous forecasts [3][4] Group 2 - The United States is increasingly anxious about China's economic rise, fearing that being surpassed will accelerate its own decline in national strength [4] - Historical trends indicate that China has a strong internal driving force, allowing it to become self-reliant and resilient in the face of challenges [4] - The goal of China becoming the world's largest economy is expected to be achieved rapidly within the next decade, which is a source of encouragement for the Chinese people [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It offers trend judgments for various commodities within different sectors, including "oscillating", "bullish", and "bearish". 2. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, with A - shares lacking a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to oscillate while accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. There is strong support below the stock index due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Different commodities in various sectors are affected by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events, resulting in different price trends and investment outlooks. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Oscillating. A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, but there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, and precious metals are stabilizing and oscillating [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling. Limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits lead to an oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. With small production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and production and inventory are both increasing, pressuring the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The US government shutdown has increased market risk aversion. LME zinc inventory is continuously decreasing, and the risk of a short squeeze remains, but domestic fundamentals are still in surplus, so be cautious when chasing high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. US economic data and Fed policy expectations affect market risk appetite. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and nickel prices are mainly affected by macro factors in the short term, with high inventory pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Macro - sentiment is volatile, and stainless steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Oscillating. Macro - benefits have been digested, and considering the raw material shortage and good new - quality demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to buying at low prices in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Northwest production capacity is resuming, and southwest production is weak. The impact of the dry season is weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillating. The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong, but there is hedging pressure [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillating. There are concerns about weakening industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose, and attention should be paid to upward price pressure [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. There is cost support and direct demand, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, but high supply and downstream pressure limit price rebound [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Coal and coke are strong due to tight supply, but downstream steel prices have weakened first, and there is a risk of the price returning to the oscillating range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. It is currently under the pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports, but may rebound if export data improves in the traditional production - reduction cycle starting in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. China's purchase of US soybeans may bring a loose supply expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's production capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit. The downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Typhoons have affected sugarcane production, and there is seasonal upward pressure, but the rebound space is limited after new - sugar listing [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to traders' inventory - building rhythm and policy changes [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating. Domestic soybean purchase and processing margins are poor, and the market may rebound to repair margins, but the supply is expected to be loose in the near and far terms, limiting the rebound height [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and trade policies have eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production policy, geopolitics, and trade policies [1]. - **Asphalt**: Bearish. Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and supply is sufficient with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. Supported by raw material cost, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating. Crude oil price decline weakens the cost support of butadiene, and synthetic rubber supply is loose with high inventory [1]. - **PTA**: Oscillating. The news of the "anti - involution" policy, overseas and domestic device failures, and maintenance have affected production and prices [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal price increase strengthens cost support. The polyester peak season is ending without obvious decline [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating. It is affected by the PTA price and cost, with a strengthening basis [1]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating. Weak Asian benzene prices, low device operating rates, and closed arbitrage windows have affected the market [1]. - **Urea**: Oscillating. Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the "anti - involution" policy and cost [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. High supply leads to large inventory pressure, weakening maintenance, and slow - growing demand [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Insufficient maintenance support and new device production increase supply pressure, and demand improvement is less than expected [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. New device production and reduced maintenance increase supply pressure, and coal price increase strengthens cost support [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. Planned production expansion in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and potential short - squeeze risk [1]. - **LPG**: Oscillating. International oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy may already be in recession due to high interest rates, urging the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The overall condition of the U.S. economy is reported to be good, but specific industries are experiencing recession [1] - The Federal Reserve's policies are causing various distribution issues within the economy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have downplayed expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to criticism from government officials [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has warned that failure to quickly lower interest rates could trigger an economic recession [1] - On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, with only two out of twelve committee members opposing this decision, including Milan, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1]

贝森特当天在美国有线电视新闻网《国情咨文》节目中说："我认为美国经济整体状况良好，但某些行 业存在衰退。而且，美联储的政策造成诸多分配方面的问题。" 来源：第一财经 据央视新闻，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间11月2日表示，受高利率影响，美国经济部分领域可能已经 陷入衰退。他再次呼吁美联储加快降息步伐。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy may have already entered a recession due to high interest rates [1] - Becerra emphasized that while the overall economic condition is good, there are specific industries facing recession [1] - He called for the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts to address distribution issues caused by current policies [1]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy are already in recession, and if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates further, the scope of the recession may expand [1][3] - Bessent emphasized that the current obstacle in the real estate market is the mortgage interest rates, suggesting that a reduction in rates by the Federal Reserve could end the recession in the housing sector [1] Government Spending and Inflation - Bessent noted that the Trump administration has reduced government spending, decreasing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP from 6.4% to 5.9%, which should help curb inflation [3] - A study from MIT indicated that 42% of the severe inflation in 2022 was due to excessive government spending, implying that continued spending cuts could lead to lower inflation levels [3] Federal Reserve Actions - On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned that there are differing views on the policy direction for December, indicating that further rate cuts are not guaranteed [3]

Economic Overview - Approximately 22 states in the U.S. are in recession or on the brink of it, accounting for one-third of the national economy [1] - The U.S. economy appears stable on the surface but is experiencing significant internal division, with California and New York being critical to determining whether the country will enter a recession [1][11] GDP and Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first negative growth in three years, raising alarms in the market [3] - Michigan, once a hub for the automotive industry, is facing economic difficulties due to ongoing tariff impacts, despite positive financial reports from General Motors and Ford [3] Employment Trends - Nearly 700,000 layoffs have occurred in the U.S. in the first five months of 2025, an 80% increase year-on-year, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Job cuts are prevalent across various sectors, including construction, manufacturing, technology, and finance, with healthcare and hospitality being the only sectors still hiring [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The federal government shutdown starting October 1 has forced around 800,000 federal employees into unpaid leave, with over 70,000 working without pay [7] - The shutdown has delayed the release of important employment data and consumer price index reports, limiting the Federal Reserve's decision-making resources [7] Tariff Policies - The average effective tariff rate faced by U.S. consumers has reached 17.9%, the highest since 1934, significantly impacting consumer prices [9] - Economists predict that new tariffs could reduce GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.1 percentage points by 2025 [8] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence is declining, and spending is slowing, with many middle- and low-income families struggling despite stable employment [11] - California and New York, which together account for over 20% of the national economy, are under pressure to maintain growth [11][12] Global Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth, with the U.S. expected to follow suit as a leading developed economy [14] - The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, facing significant challenges from trade policies, government shutdowns, and employment pressures, but there is potential for stabilization if key states can maintain their economic footing [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. economy is facing multiple serious issues, with the current recovery benefiting only a small segment of the population, while ordinary citizens are struggling due to economic stagnation [1] Economic Indicators - Despite some common indicators suggesting a stable economy, a deeper analysis reveals significant problems within the U.S. economy [1] - There is an increase in loan defaults and credit card delinquencies, indicating that consumers are increasingly opting for cheaper food options [1] Impact on Consumers - Middle and low-income consumers are experiencing significant hardships, exacerbated by the uncertainty created by government economic policies [1] - The number of long-term unemployed individuals has risen sharply, particularly affecting minority groups such as African Americans, who are finding it more difficult to secure employment in the current environment [1] Wealth Disparity - Although the New York stock market has seen gains driven by technology stocks, the wealth distribution is heavily skewed, with the top 10% of U.S. households owning 87% of the stock, leaving low and middle-income individuals unable to benefit from capital markets [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. economy is facing multiple serious issues, with the current recovery benefiting only a few, while ordinary people are struggling due to economic stagnation [1][5] - There is an increase in loan defaults and credit card delinquencies in the U.S., with consumers showing a preference for cheaper food options. The number of long-term unemployed individuals has significantly risen, particularly among minority groups [3] - The Bank of England's governor warns of a potential repeat of the financial crisis, citing the recent bankruptcies of U.S. auto parts manufacturer "First Brand" and subprime lender "Three Colors" as alarming signs for high-risk lending in the private credit market [4][7] Group 2 - Despite some common indicators suggesting a stable U.S. economy, a deeper analysis reveals significant underlying problems, particularly affecting middle and low-income consumers who are struggling due to government economic policies creating uncertainty [5] - The practices of bundling loans into bonds by "Three Colors" and using invoices as collateral for credit by "First Brand" are reminiscent of strategies that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns among financial authorities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is at risk of entering a mild recession, which may lead to more significant interest rate cuts and a weakening of the dollar [1] Economic Outlook - The potential for a mild recession in the U.S. economy could trigger larger interest rate reductions [1] - A weaker dollar may result from the anticipated economic downturn and subsequent monetary policy adjustments [1]