国际关系，从来不是靠嘴硬能赢的。 以前加拿大跟着美国一起对中国指手画脚，结果自家油菜籽卖不出去、农民愁得睡不着觉。 现在突然改口说"中国是战略伙伴"，立马被特朗普拉黑。 这不是外交转向，是被现实狠狠扇了一巴掌才清醒过来。 美加关系，真没那么铁 咱们先说清楚时间点。 就在2025年12月，东盟峰会还没开，加拿大总理马克·卡尼就放话了：想和中国高层见面，还直接把中 国称为"重要战略伙伴"。 这话一出，全世界都愣了。 可你猜怎么着？卡尼刚说完，特朗普立马跳出来，宣布暂停所有跟加拿大的贸易谈判，还要对加征新关 税。 美方给出的理由特别离谱：说加拿大花7500万美元拍了个广告，用了里根总统反对关税的原话，"冒 犯"了他偶像。 但周叔跟你讲，哪是什么广告惹祸？分明是加拿大这步棋走得太明显了。 一个长期帮美国围堵中国的国家，突然要跟中国走近，白宫怎么可能忍？ 尤其特朗普一直嚷嚷"加拿大该成美国第51州"，现在盟友要"投奔东方"，不翻脸才怪。 更关键的是，美加表面兄弟，背地里早就是竞争对手。 两国都是农业出口大户，大豆、油菜籽、原油，样样重叠。 毕竟加拿大可是G7成员，又是美国后院最"听话"的邻居，平时连打个喷嚏都得看华盛顿 ...

在拜登代表的传统政治精英眼中，美国通过主导北约、构建全球产业链和美元结算体系，牢牢掌控全球 话语权数十年，这份霸权红利不容有失。他固执地认为美国必须是全球唯一中心，任何可能分流影响力 的力量都该被遏制，中俄自然成了他口中的"假想敌"。可现实早已今非昔比，美国政府债务已飙升至38 万亿美元，如此庞大的债务压力下，维持全球扩张的战略部署早已力不从心。特朗普政府发动的全球关 税战已经证明，中国凭借强大的战略定力和经济韧性，完全有能力与美国正面博弈，美国想靠老一套拿 捏中国的时代早已过去。 白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科的表态更像是一剂清醒剂，他直言当下全球已无人能遏制中国崛起，奉劝美国早 点死心。这位见证过地缘政治风云变幻的领导人，一语道破了拜登焦虑的本质——不是中俄要抢美国 的"领导权"，而是美国的霸权思维已经跟不上时代发展的大势。特朗普之所以提出中美G2共治构想， 本质上是认清了实力对比的现实，与其在全球扩张的烂摊子中持续内耗，不如收缩战线实现利益最大 化，这种灵活的身段与拜登的死脑筋形成鲜明对比。 完整内容查看视频 ...

巴西的遭遇早已为拉美国家敲响警钟。两年前，巴西只是想在中美贸易之间找到平衡，美国便立即挥起 关税的大棒，对巴西进行严厉制裁，清单长得堪比亚马逊河。如今，特朗普更加直接，将移民问题与政 权合法性挂钩，潜台词十分明确：别再谈什么主权问题，把资源送到我这里，不要给我添麻烦。民主、 价值观这些曾经的遮羞布，早已经被美国丢进了大西洋。再看亚太，西方媒体所称的中国执掌亚洲实际 上是居心叵测的捧杀。特朗普心里十分清楚，正面打赢中国或通过贸易战压垮中国，现在根本不可能。 他的算盘是将亚太地区变成消耗中国的磨盘，自己在幕后操控。美国对中国的封锁越来越严密，从光刻 机到EDA软件，从芯片到半导体，无一不在封锁之列；日韩被迫将防卫费提高到GDP的2%，并以高价 购买美国的爱国者导弹，甚至连企业也被强迫去美国建厂。菲律宾在南海的小动作背后，总能看到美国 顾问的影子；在台湾问题上的切香肠手段从未停止过，今天卖武器，明天搞访问，既不想直接与中国对 抗，又要榨取台湾的最后价值。看似错综复杂的策略，其核心只有一个目的：把中国牢牢锁死在低端制 造的层次，绝不让其产业升级的步伐太快。然而，特朗普显然忘记了中国的5G基站已经遍布城乡，新 能源汽车 ...

美国是否打算在拉美地区发起战争？在美国时间12月16日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发帖，指责委 内瑞拉政府盗窃美国的石油，并资助毒品、人口贩卖等犯罪行为。因此，特朗普决定将委内瑞拉政府列 为外国恐怖组织。目前，委内瑞拉已经被美国历史上规模最大的海上舰队所包围，美国宣布将全面封锁 所有进出委内瑞拉的油轮，直到委内瑞拉归还从美国窃取的石油、土地及其他资产。 特朗普对委内瑞拉的指责，实际上给全世界提供了明显的信号，那就是美国正在为针对委内瑞拉的军事 行动做舆论铺垫。特朗普将委内瑞拉定性为恐怖组织，这意味着美国可能在某个时刻以反恐的名义对委 内瑞拉采取军事行动。在当前的国际环境下，任何国家进行反恐行动都能获得广泛支持，而美国选择把 这个标签加在委内瑞拉身上，似乎为军事行动找到了借口。更深层次的原因，可能是美国企图重新在拉 美地区加强其影响力。拉美长期被美国视为其势力范围，特朗普的做法可能是在为美国巩固在拉美的后 院做准备，确保美国的基本利益不受威胁。 实际上，美国的军事行动已经悄然展开。今年年初，美国就已开始向委内瑞拉附近海域部署海军力量。 美国已经向该地区派遣了航空母舰、两栖攻击舰及海军陆战队等作战力量。同时，F- ...

Core Insights - China's gold reserves have reached 74.12 million ounces as of the end of November, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of October, highlighting a strategic shift in its financial positioning [1] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a safeguard for financial sovereignty, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and economic instability [3][5] - The reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China, alongside increased gold purchases, indicates a growing awareness of the risks associated with U.S. debt [3][5] Group 1 - China's recent increase in gold reserves signals a proactive approach to mitigate financial risks and enhance economic security [1][7] - The historical context of gold as a financial asset underscores its enduring value despite the shift to fiat currencies [1] - The actions of other countries, such as Japan's reduction of U.S. debt, reflect a broader consensus on the risks associated with U.S. Treasury securities [3] Group 2 - The potential visit of former President Trump to China raises questions about whether he will request China to increase its U.S. debt holdings, indicating the fragility of the current financial landscape [5] - China's strategy of bolstering gold reserves serves as a counterbalance to U.S. financial dominance and reflects the complexities of international relations [7] - The evolving role of gold in the global financial system suggests that it will become increasingly important as countries seek to protect their economic interests amid rising geopolitical tensions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The commentary by Russian military expert Korotchenko suggests that Trump's policies have accelerated the decline of U.S. hegemony by approximately ten years, despite the U.S. maintaining a strong economy and military advantages [1][5][8] Group 1: Institutional Foundations - Korotchenko argues that Trump's attacks on education and media have undermined the foundational values of Western democracy that support U.S. power, leading to public confusion and distrust [1][3] - He compares the current situation to the late Soviet period under Gorbachev, where a loss of faith among the populace contributed to the state's collapse [1][5] Group 2: Alliances and Global Influence - Trump's demands for NATO allies to increase military spending and threats to reduce U.S. troop presence in Europe have strained relationships, potentially pushing European nations towards Russia [3][5] - Korotchenko likens Trump's approach to Gorbachev's neglect of the Warsaw Pact, which led to its dissolution and the loss of Soviet influence in Eastern Europe [3][5] Group 3: Economic and Trade Policies - Trump's protectionist policies, including tariffs and restrictions on immigration, have disrupted global supply chains and contributed to a decline in U.S. economic growth, with rising debt levels posing a risk of financial crisis [5][8] - The shift towards isolationism and domestic manufacturing subsidies has led to inflationary pressures and increased tensions with allies, particularly in trade [5][8] Group 4: Political Landscape and Future Implications - Following Trump's re-election in 2024, his "America First" policies are expected to further isolate the U.S. internationally, with potential long-term consequences for its global standing [7][8] - Experts suggest that the current trajectory under Trump's leadership may lead to a more multipolar world, diminishing U.S. hegemony and providing opportunities for adversaries [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of U.S. hegemony accelerated by Trump's policies, drawing parallels to the collapse of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev's reforms [1][3][6]. Group 1: Institutional Foundations - Trump's criticism of the education system and media has undermined the trust and recognition that form the basis of U.S. hegemony, similar to Gorbachev's actions that led to the collapse of Soviet beliefs [3][4]. - The social unrest in the U.S. during the first half of the year reflects the severe division within the country, indicating a loss of confidence in American values [3][6]. Group 2: Alliances - Trump's demands for NATO allies to increase military spending and threats to reduce U.S. troop presence have weakened alliances, potentially pushing European nations towards Russia [4][6]. - The internal divisions within NATO and the discussions among France and Germany about EU self-defense highlight the diminishing influence of the U.S. in Europe [4][6]. Group 3: Trade Foundations - Trump's imposition of tariffs and restrictions on international students has disrupted supply chains and led to economic stagnation, reminiscent of the Soviet Union's closed economy [6][7]. - The protectionist policies have resulted in a decline in economic growth and increased national debt, raising concerns about a potential financial crisis [6][7]. Group 4: Political Developments - Trump's victory in the 2024 election and subsequent policies have been characterized by a focus on "America First," which may further isolate the U.S. internationally [7]. - The rapid implementation of policies, including immigration and trade reforms, has led to significant internal conflict and a decline in national cohesion [7].

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days set in late 2018 to early 2019, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the prolonged shutdown will reduce the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter of this year, with the BBC estimating a loss of approximately $15 billion for every week the shutdown continues [5] - The shutdown has significantly impacted various sectors, including food assistance, healthcare benefits, and air travel, with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stating that vulnerable populations are being used as political pawns during this crisis [6] Economic Impact - The ongoing shutdown is expected to lead to a decline in the U.S. GDP growth rate, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter [5] - The airline industry has been severely affected, with over 3.2 million travelers experiencing flight delays or cancellations since the shutdown began [10] Social Consequences - The shutdown has caused substantial distress for American citizens, particularly affecting food assistance and healthcare services, with reports of federal employees lining up for free food [6][7] - Homeless individuals in cities like Portland are also facing challenges, as they wait for assistance amid the ongoing crisis [9] Military and International Relations - The shutdown raises concerns about military pay, with reports indicating that if the shutdown continues, the disbursement of military salaries could be jeopardized [11] - The U.S. government is also facing criticism from Latin American countries regarding its military deployments in the Caribbean, which are framed as efforts to combat drug trafficking [13]

Group 1 - The trade policies initiated by the Trump administration have led to significant disruptions in global trade dynamics, with unilateral tariffs causing inflation and economic downturns in the U.S. [2][3] - The tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum, as well as the high tariffs on Chinese goods, are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.2 percentage points and reduce global trade volume by 1% [2][3] - The agricultural sector in the U.S. has been particularly hard hit, with exports to China dropping by 32% in the first quarter, resulting in a loss of $15 billion [5][9] Group 2 - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has plummeted to its lowest level in three years, impacting factory profits and leading to increased layoffs [3] - The trade war has prompted retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Japan, adversely affecting U.S. exports of automobiles and aircraft [5][9] - The global response to U.S. tariffs has been overwhelmingly negative, with over 50 countries criticizing U.S. unilateralism and exploring alternatives to the dollar [5][7] Group 3 - The tariffs are seen as undermining the foundation of U.S. economic hegemony, with allies potentially shifting their partnerships due to the trade policies [7][9] - Despite the challenges, China's economy has shown resilience, with a projected increase in foreign investment and growth in domestic consumption [7][9] - The trade conflict has complicated relationships with allies, leading to a potential decline in global economic growth rates as estimated by the IMF [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the foundation of American hegemony lies not only in military and technological superiority but significantly in the vast consumer market created by the American middle class [5][8]. Group 1: American Hegemony - The U.S. has maintained its hegemonic status for decades, supported by a large middle class and the consumer market they generate [5]. - The Bretton Woods system established the dollar's status as the global currency, which continues to influence global economics even after its collapse [5][8]. - The U.S. government has imposed over $340 billion in fines on foreign companies through long-arm jurisdiction over the past decade [6]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Middle Class - Approximately 50%-60% of the U.S. population belongs to the middle class, with household incomes ranging from $52,200 to $156,600 for a family of three in 2021 [8]. - The middle class primarily consists of office workers, technical staff, teachers, and nurses, with annual incomes between $50,000 and $150,000 [8][9]. - Most middle-class families own homes but may carry mortgages or car loans, reflecting their economic status and consumption patterns [9]. Group 3: Economic Impact of the Middle Class - The middle class's spending focuses on education and healthcare, which are less sensitive to economic fluctuations, providing stable market demand [10]. - Regional differences in the middle class's economic standards are significant, with higher income thresholds in states like California compared to Mississippi [13]. - The large consumer market supports U.S. companies, enabling them to remain competitive globally [14]. Group 4: Global Influence and Trade - The U.S. is the world's largest importer, with imports reaching $3.2 trillion in 2023, giving it leverage in trade negotiations [15]. - The U.S. often uses market access as a bargaining chip, threatening to restrict access to compel concessions from trading partners [16]. - American consumer culture and lifestyle are disseminated globally, shaping perceptions of the "American Dream" [18]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The article suggests that to surpass the U.S., other countries must enhance their consumer capabilities and address potential financial risks within the U.S. economy [19][20].