Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2560 - 2620. It was affected by factors such as low rapeseed meal inventory, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and short - term prices will return to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound trend. The market is affected by multiple factors including supply and demand, inventory, and policy [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still potential for rising geopolitical conflicts to support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish factors**: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: From May 19 - 28, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 - 3029 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2420 - 2540 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian increased from 2420 yuan/ton on May 19 to 2540 yuan/ton on May 28 [13][14]. - **Inventory data**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31,068 on May 16 to 28,009 on May 28 [9][15]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the trends of harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal decreased, and funds flowed out [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2560 - 2620. It is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, increased import of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The price is likely to return to range - bound trading in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Increased arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From May 16th to May 27th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 628 to 463. The spot price of rapeseed meal increased from 2470 to 2540, and the futures price of the main 2509 contract increased from 2513 to 2599. The spot price of rapeseed meal remained at a discount to the futures price, and the high - level spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot prices narrowed. The spread of the 2509 contract oscillated [13][14][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31,278 on May 15th to 28,438 on May 27th [9][15]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [23][24]. - **Import and Cost**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost oscillated strongly [25]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices increased slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [37]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal oscillated and rebounded, supported by the soybean meal trend and technical buying. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory supported the market. Spot demand recovered in the short term, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills was under no pressure. The market returned to range - bound trading in the short term. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes were bullish, but the impact was limited as there were no additional tariffs on rapeseed imports [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 2540, and the basis was - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory decreased, which was bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price was above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in, which was bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price returned to range - bound trading [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2470 - 2530. It is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. - The rapeseed meal market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected outcome of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the market, but the lack of a tariff on Canadian rapeseed limits the upside. The basis is at a high - level discount, inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have increased while funds have flowed out [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market tightening and demand rising. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production is offset by an increase in Russian production, geopolitical risks still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. - Bearish factors: An increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March, and uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 6th to May 15th are presented, showing that the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract oscillates downward [13]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 36,000 tons, up 148.28% week - on - week and 20% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory at oil mills has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed meal inventory has returned to a low level [9][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [24][25]. - **Import Situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost has bottomed out and rebounded [26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, while funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound trading, influenced by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and soybean meal trends [9].

2025-05-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2460至2520区间震荡。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2420，基差-89，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存3.6万吨，上周1.45万吨，周环比增加148.28%，去年同期3万吨，同比增 加20%。偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-04-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕，但未 对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。偏多 2.基差：现货2600，基差-84，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.99万吨，上周2.07万吨，周环比减少52.17%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比 减少64.64%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2505 is recommended to be traded within the range of 2530 - 2590 intraday [9]. - Rapeseed meal prices are affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, demand, inventory, and import policies. In the short - term, it may fluctuate upward due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the supply - demand fundamentals may keep the price in a range - bound oscillation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2505: Intraday trading range is 2530 - 2590 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season, with a supply - demand balance in the spot market [12]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is uncertain [12]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [12]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3.3 Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to rise**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [13]. - **Likely to fall**: The increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.05 tons, a 6.15% week - on - week decrease from last week's 3.25 tons and a 4.69% year - on - year decrease from last year's 3.2 tons [10]. - **Price**: The spot price is 2530, with a basis of 10, showing a premium over the futures. Rapeseed meal is in a weak oscillation, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly, with the basis remaining near par. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has declined from a high level, and the price difference of the 2505 contract has remained oscillating [10][20][22]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [25][26]. - **Import situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in March was lower than expected, and the import cost has rebounded after reaching the bottom [27]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from long to short, and the funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments. Demand has not been released, and oil mill operations have decreased. Low inventory supports the price, but the short - term demand is in the off - season, and the arrival volume of imported rapeseed is not high. The impact of the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited [10]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2530, with a basis of 10, showing a neutral situation [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory decrease is positive for the price [10]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Main position**: The change from long to short and the inflow of funds are bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: In the short - term, it may fluctuate upward but will remain range - bound due to supply - demand fundamentals [10].