Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. The soybean oil market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game of multiple long and short factors, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The palm oil market is also expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. The rapeseed oil market will likely oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually decrease if the supply tightens as expected [5][93] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of May 23, the East China spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 09 - 50 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a weakening of spot prices, but the market rebounded from the bottom, limiting the decline in spot prices. The basis continued to weaken [5][7] b. Supply End - The May UDSA report on US soybeans lowered the carry - over stocks for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for US soybeans. Currently, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is favorable, and as of May 16, 66% of the sowing has been completed, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. Brazil's supply is increasing, and the price is weak, but there is strong support below. Globally, soybean production is abundant, and the price is weak under the pattern of loose supply and demand. In China, the pressure of soybean arrivals from May to July is still high, and the supply - demand situation is gradually becoming loose. In the long - term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to an increase in import costs and a decrease in supply, and domestic soybeans will enter a de - stocking cycle after September [5] c. Demand End - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. With the high cost - performance of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. As of May 16, the national soybean inventory in oil mills rose to 5.8683 million tons, a 9.71% increase from the previous week and a 33.95% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory continued to rise slightly to 121,700 tons, a 20.26% increase from the previous week and an 80.47% decrease year - on - year [5] d. Cost End - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is 915 cents/bushel. Calculated according to the exchange rate of 7.2, the premium of 140 cents, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.6, the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2850 yuan/ton, and it rises to 2970 yuan/ton from August to September. The overall crushing profit is maintained between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [5] e. Market Summary and Strategy - With the low carry - over stocks of new - crop US soybeans, the bottom support for US soybeans is strengthened. As the key growing period approaches, the probability of a rebound from the low level increases. From May to July in China, the arrivals increase, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories enter an accumulation cycle, with prices weakening due to loose supply - demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost increases and the strong expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended that in the short - term, the M2509 operate in the range of [2850, 3000], and enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium - to - long - term, go long at the lower edge of the range [5] 2. Oils a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of the week of May 23, the palm oil main 09 contract rose 22 yuan/ton to 8006 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 7774 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 09 contract rose 114 yuan/ton to 9391 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 50 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 70 yuan/ton to 8120 yuan/ton, and the fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 100 yuan/ton to 9410 yuan/ton. The basis of palm oil in Guangzhou rose 28 yuan/ton to 594 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 90 yuan/ton to 346 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 14 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton [93][95] b. Palm Oil - The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, higher than market expectations, which was bearish. In May, the month - on - month growth rate of Malaysian palm oil exports gradually declined. However, the increase in production also slowed down significantly. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation rate in May will slow down. Indonesia raised the export tax in June, while Malaysia lowered it. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will oscillate in the short - term, with the 08 contract operating in the range of 3800 - 4000. In China, palm oil arrivals will increase significantly from May, and the inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 359,700 tons, and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [93] c. Soybean Oil - The EPA denied the news of a 1.36 - billion - gallon biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy turned positive again. The excessive rainfall in the core soybean - growing areas of Argentina and the heavy rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may provide support for US soybean prices. However, Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1st, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the pressure of the old - crop soybean harvest in South America limit the upside of US soybean prices. It is expected that the US soybean 07 contract will oscillate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short - term. In China, the monthly average soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach about 10 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 656,300 tons, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [93] d. Rapeseed Oil - The crushing and export demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season remain strong, and the inventory of old - crop rapeseed continues to decline. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, and there are no obvious weather problems for now. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z bill, which is beneficial to the demand for rapeseed - based biodiesel. It is expected that ICE rapeseed will oscillate in the short - term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, with a large short - term supply pressure. However, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is still ongoing, and the arrivals of rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightens as expected, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [93] e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the oil market have no prominent long - short contradictions, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. In the medium - to - long - term, the arrivals of soybeans and palm oil will increase in June, dragging down the overall oil market. In the third quarter, due to the decrease in the sowing area of new - crop soybeans and rapeseed in North America and possible weather speculation, the oil market is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively, and be cautious about shorting on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil can be followed in the long - term [93]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA May Supply and Demand Report has a bullish impact, with the estimated US soybean stock-to-consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.68%, continuing to decline from the 24/25 season [5]. - The China-US joint statement led to a significant reduction in the tariff on Chinese imports of US soybeans, but there is still no profit in importing US soybeans, so the actual impact is limited [5]. - The focus of soybean meal should be on the cost narrative and domestic supply - demand. The US soybean planting progress has reached 48%, which is relatively fast in recent years. The Brazilian premium has been oscillating weakly recently, and its further decline space should be monitored [5]. - China is facing the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the customs clearance time has been shortened. This week, soybean meal inventory continued to decline slightly but is still low. Overall, there is no speculation driver in US soybean planting, and China is digesting the pressure of spot supply and Brazilian selling pressure, so the market is expected to be volatile [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions are presented, including Dalian, Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, Fangcheng, and Guangdong. For example, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang (against the main contract) is - 6 [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, including spot spread in Guangdong and the spread of the main contract. For instance, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 690 [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - Inventory data such as Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are shown in the form of time - series charts from 2020 - 2025 [4]. 3.4开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Conditions) - The operation rate and soybean pressing volume of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of time - series charts [4].