丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 保险估值仍安全，看好集中度及负债成本改 善 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周陆家嘴金融论坛召开，将着力推出进一步深化改革的"1+6"政策措施，统筹推进投融资综合改革和投 资者权益保护，政策端与市场交投趋势稳中向好；另保险方面当前估值隐含市场对长期投资的悲观假设， 考虑中远期利差水平，当前估值仍然安全，看好集中度和负债成本改善。从盈利和分红的稳定性维度出发， 推荐江苏金租、中国平安及中国财险。综合业绩弹性及估值分位，推荐新华保险、中国人寿、香港交易所、 中信证券、东方财富、同花顺、九方智投控股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 谢宇尘 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 保险估值仍安全，看好集中度及负债成本改善 2] [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，维持保险行业"强于大市"评级。展望后续，对于负债 端，该行认为寿险NBV有望延续向好、财险盈利水平有望稳步提高。对于资产端，随着利好政策继续 加码，资本市场有望边际回暖。在此背景下，保险公司的投资收益或迎来改善，进而支撑板块估值修 复。个股重点推荐中国财险&中国人保(商业模式具有稀缺性、2025年业绩有望延续向好)、中国太保(基 本面相对更优、资产负债匹配能力更强)、中国平安(更为受益公募新规和资产端环境改善)、新华保险 (资产端弹性更大)、中国人寿(资产端弹性更大)。 当前市场对人身险板块的关注主要在于NBV表现和利差损风险。对于NBV，短期客户对保险产品的需 求放缓使得新单保费面临一定的增长压力;但在个险渠道执行"报行合一"、产品预定利率有望继续下 调、险企积极调整产品结构等推动下，NBVMargin进一步提升有望支撑NBV延续正增。对于负债成 本，随着全渠道执行"报行合一"、人身险产品的预定利率将随市场利率动态调整、产品结构逐渐转向以 分红险为主，险企的负债成本有望显著改善，利差损风险也有望持续化解。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 财产险：降本提质增效有望推动财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of lowering deposit interest rates among banks, particularly small and medium-sized banks, is a response to the earlier rate cuts by major state-owned and joint-stock banks, aimed at stabilizing funding costs for banks [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Many rural commercial banks and village banks have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, following the lead of larger banks [1][3]. - For example, Qionghai Xingfu Village Bank adjusted its interest rates on various deposit products, with the current account rate dropping from 0.1% to 0.05%, and fixed-term rates for one to five years also reduced [3][5]. - A number of other banks, including Chaoyang Rural Commercial Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have also lowered their deposit rates in early June [3]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The reduction in deposit rates is seen as a necessary step to alleviate the pressure on net interest margins faced by banks [5]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, net interest margins for different types of banks have decreased, with state-owned banks at 1.33%, joint-stock banks at 1.56%, city commercial banks at 1.37%, and rural commercial banks at 1.58%, all showing declines compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - Lowering deposit rates can help banks reduce interest expenses, mitigate the trend of long-term deposits, stabilize funding costs, and improve profitability, thereby enhancing the sustainability of financial services to the real economy [5].

金十数据6月10日讯，曾经火爆的五年期大额存单现在难寻踪迹。记者近日采访了解到，工商银行、招 商银行、中信银行等大中型银行以及部分城商行均下架了五年期大额存单，部分银行在售大额存单的最 长期限缩短至2年期。"这是银行为了应对息差下降而做的主动调整，希望通过降低负债成本暂缓息差下 滑的趋势。银行主动减少长期限负债，以规避未来资金成本与收益倒挂风险。"某股份制银行金融市场 部人士对记者说。上述人士说，银行通过调降长期限大额存单利率，甚至暂停发行3年、5年期产品，是 为了避免锁定长期高息负债，从而缓解息差压力。 （界面） 纷纷下架！银行5年期大额存单逐渐消失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of major banks in China, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and CITIC Bank, is to withdraw five-year large denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) and shorten the maximum term of available CDs to two years, in response to declining interest margins [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Actions - Major banks are actively reducing long-term liabilities by lowering the interest rates on long-term large denomination CDs or even suspending the issuance of three and five-year products to mitigate the risk of future cost-revenue inversion [1][4]. - As of recent searches, five-year large denomination CDs are no longer available on the apps of major state-owned banks, with the longest available term being three years at a rate of 1.55% [1]. - China Merchants Bank has also removed three and five-year large denomination CDs from sale, currently offering only products with terms of two years or less, with rates below 2.15% [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The average interest rates for one-year, two-year, three-year, and five-year large denomination CDs are reported as 1.719%, 1.867%, 2.197%, and 2.038% respectively, indicating a general decline in rates [4]. - The interest rates for three-year large denomination CDs have decreased by approximately 80 basis points compared to the same period in 2024, with current rates concentrated between 1.55% and 1.8% [3]. - The latest seven-day annualized yield for Tianhong Yu'ebao has reached 1.18%, which is close to the one-year large denomination CD rate of 1.2%, highlighting the diminishing advantage of large denomination CDs in terms of interest rates [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The banking sector is currently facing low net interest margins, with the net interest margin further declining to 1.43% in the first quarter of 2025, down 9 basis points from the end of 2024 [4]. - The pressure on net interest margins is exacerbated by the continuous decline in loan yields due to multiple reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), while the trend of increasing fixed-term deposits intensifies the burden of high-interest liabilities [4][5]. - The suspension of five-year large denomination CDs and the reduction of medium to long-term deposit products are necessary measures for banks to lower funding costs and stabilize net interest margins [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend shows that medium to long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are being quietly withdrawn from sale by several major banks, with a focus on three-year and five-year terms, leading to a significant drop in interest rates for these products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Changes - Major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank have removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings, with some also discontinuing three-year CDs [2][4]. - Currently, most banks are only offering large-denomination CDs with a maximum term of two years, and the availability of three-year CDs is limited or restricted to select clients [2][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rates for available large-denomination CDs have collectively dropped to the "1" range, with specific rates for different terms: for example, ICBC offers rates of 0.9% for one month and 1.55% for three years [3][4]. - The overall interest rates for two-year and shorter large-denomination CDs are concentrated between 0.9% and 1.4%, while three-year rates range from 1.55% to 1.75% [3]. Group 3: Bank Strategies - Banks are increasingly focusing on managing their funding costs, which has led to the withdrawal of medium to long-term large-denomination CDs as a strategy to stabilize net interest margins [4]. - The banking sector is under pressure to reduce funding costs, especially in a declining interest rate environment, which affects their willingness to attract long-term deposits at higher costs [4].

季末担忧缓解和央行流动性呵护推动利率下行，银行持续买入老券，尤 其是短债，二季度银行盈利压力缓解，降低了抛售债券的必要性。存单 大量到期对市场影响有限，因存单利率呈震荡向下趋势。 市场普遍预期利率将继续下行，时代新材利率和 30 年国债利率接近前 低水平。广谱利率下降、短期供需变化和资金变化将驱动利率进一步下 降。政策利率滞后且指导性减弱，广谱利率定价能力更强。 广谱利率与实体部门投资回报高度一致，受金融机构和实体部门共同决 定，不完全由货币政策决定。企业盈利压力加大可能导致融资需求进一 步下降，从而推动广谱利率继续下降。 企业融资成本下降后，金融机构需在负债成本和净息差之间进行分配。 今年二季度负债成本进一步下降，是推动整体市场收益水平降低的重要 原因之一。 自去年以来，存款挂牌利率持续加速下调，导致整个市场负债成本快速 下降，预计未来几个月还会继续降低，显著影响整体固定收益资产的收 益水平。 Q&A 当前债市的走势如何，以及背后的原因是什么？ 上周债市震荡走强，各期限利率随着资金价格下降普遍有所下行。隔夜利率降 至约 1.4%，七天利率降至约 1.55%。10 年和 30 年国债分别下行约 2 个基点， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that since 2025, the banking industry's asset-liability configuration is focused on maintaining total volume, adjusting structure, and actively promoting loan growth, while the expansion of interbank assets and liabilities is converging [1] - Although the industry's net interest margin continues to decline, the reduction in funding costs is helping to narrow the margin of decline [1] - Looking ahead, the reduction in funding costs will remain an important direction for banks' interest margin management in the upcoming quarters [1]

从净利润来看，去年净利润水平最高的是江苏银行，也是四家银行中唯一一家净利润在300亿元以上 的，为333.06亿元，同比增长10.97%。其次是，宁波银行272.21亿元，同比增长6.29%；上海银行235.60 亿元，同比增长4.38%；南京银行203.65亿元，同比增长9.31%。 今年一季度，江苏银行单季净利润突破100亿元，达到了100.92亿元，其后依次是宁波银行、上海银 行、南京银行，分别为74.56亿元、61.39亿元、62.92亿元。 三大业务板块动能切换 利息净收入、手续费及佣金净收入、投资净收入是银行的三大主要营收来源，也可以基本反映出对公、 零售、金市三大业务板块的发展情况。 近期，长三角头部的四家城商行——江苏银行、上海银行、宁波银行、南京银行的2024年及今年一季度 财报均已披露完毕。综合比较四家银行财报数据，江苏银行依旧稳稳占据"老大哥"地位，但后三位小弟 也在去年各有亮点。 资产是银行发展的底盘，从总资产来看，截至一季度末，最高的是江苏银行，为4.46万亿元；其次是宁 波银行，为3.40万亿元，首次超过上海银行，上海银行则是为3.27万亿元。南京银行目前最低，为2.77 万亿元。 ...

银行业 成都银行（601838）2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报点评 2025 年 4 月 30 日 投资要点： 分析师：吴晓彤 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070001 电话：0769-22119302 邮箱： wuxiaotong@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 2025 年 | 4 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 17.26 | | 总市值（亿元） | 731.55 | | 总股本(百万股) | 4,238.44 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 4,231.06 | | ROE（TTM） | 16.12% | | 12 月最高价(元) | 17.90 | | 12 月最低价(元) | 12.83 | 股价走势 成都银行 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 买入（维持） 负债成本减轻，资产质量优异 事件：成都银行发布2024年年报和2025年一季报。2024年，成都银行实现营业 收入229.82亿元，同比增长5.89%；归母净利润128.58亿元，同比增长10.17%。 2025年一季度，实现营业收入58.17亿元，同比增长3.17%；归母净利 ...