Report Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: ★★★ for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon, and silicon manganese, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Core Views - The overall sentiment in the steel industry is pessimistic, with demand expectations being a major constraint. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with limited rebound space due to potential negative feedback in the mid - term and possible external trade frictions [3]. - The coke price is in a stalemate, and there may be a driving force for the price to continue rising in the short term [4]. - The coking coal market is in a situation where demand has reached a peak and supply has marginally decreased. The recent price increase is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [6]. - The silicon manganese market is weak, and short - term observation is recommended to see if the rebound is sustainable [7]. - The silicon iron market has a general demand, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Steel - Rebar: This week, the apparent demand decreased significantly, production declined, and the de - stocking pace slowed. The hot - rolled coil demand declined, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The iron - water production is gradually falling but remains at a relatively high level. The improvement in the infrastructure is limited, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has slowed, and the real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability. The increase in US tariffs impacts steel exports. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments have rebounded to a yearly high, and domestic arrivals have increased significantly. Port inventories may stabilize with the increase in arrivals. - Demand: Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, and iron - water production is declining from a high level. The decline rate may not be fast, but the downward trend is hard to change. The rebound space is limited, and the trend will be volatile [3]. Coke - The price is in a stalemate, and the third round of price cuts has started. The coking daily production is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke futures price is basically at par with the spot price, and the coking coal rebound provides some support. There may be a driving force for the price to continue rising in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The downstream demand has concerns about production cuts, and all links are reluctant to replenish inventory. The supply from production and imports remains in an oversupply situation. Some state - owned mines are reducing production, and some mines are shut down for rectification. The iron - water production is still high, maintaining a high - level rigid demand for furnace materials. The price increase is more likely a basis - repair rebound [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price is mainly driven by coking coal. Due to previous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase. The manganese ore inventory may increase significantly this week. The iron - water production is declining, and the silicon manganese supply is slightly increasing. The market is weak, and short - term observation is recommended [7]. Silicon Iron - The price is mainly driven by coking coal. The iron - water production is declining. The export demand remains at about 80,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The magnesium metal production has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remains stable at a high level. The supply is decreasing, and the market transaction level is general. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8].

| | | | | E Kain K | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月04日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鐵硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | な女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需短期稍有韧性，淡季来临环比依然承压，产量有所回落，库存继续下降。热卷供需均有明显回 升，库存继续下降。铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限, 制造业景气度放缓，地产销售复苏缺乏持续性，新开工、施工继续大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Threaded steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows some resilience in demand, but supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The iron ore market has marginal weakening pressure in supply and demand, and the price trend is mainly volatile. The coke and coking coal markets have abundant supply and weakening downstream demand, with downward price drivers. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets have weak prices despite some improvement in fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market has a slight rebound in the disk today. The apparent demand for threaded steel has increased slightly this week, production has decreased, and inventory has continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled steel have both increased significantly, and inventory has also continued to decline. The demand shows some resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability needs further observation. The iron production is at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still large. The negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The improvement in infrastructure is limited, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has slowed down, and the real estate sales recovery lacks sustainability. The US tariff issue may have a positive change, and the macro sentiment has improved. The market rebounds in the short term, but the rhythm may still be repeated. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rebounds in the disk today. The global shipment is in normal fluctuation, and it is still in a seasonally strong stage. There is still an expectation of capacity release in the second half of the year. The domestic arrival volume is expected to increase in the future, and the space for further reduction of national port inventory is relatively limited. The terminal demand enters the off-season, and the iron production gradually declines from the high level. Currently, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, and Sino-US trade is in a window period. It is expected that the short-term reduction space of iron production is relatively limited. Overall, the iron ore supply and demand have certain marginal weakening pressure, and the external trade shows signs of further relaxation. The market sentiment has improved, and the ore price trend is mainly volatile [3] Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron production continues to decline slightly. The first round of coke price reduction has been fully implemented, but there is still profit, so the daily coke production is still at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory has increased slightly, and traders have no purchasing actions. Overall, the carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream iron production continues to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke disk is basically at par, but the cost reduction caused by the concession of coking coal will still lead to a downward shift in the coke price support [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The coking coal mine production is still at a relatively high level, and individual mines have production reduction actions. The number of shut-down mines has decreased to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory pressure has continued to accumulate rapidly. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, in the downward market stage, downstream buyers are pressing prices and purchasing cautiously, and traders' sentiment has turned negative. The Mongolian coal transaction has continued to weaken. Overall, the carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream iron production continues to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price hits a new low this year. After the bidding of the leading steel mill is completed, the price rebounds. Due to the continuous production reduction recently, the weekly production data has increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the estimated arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port at the end of this month. The iron production continues to decline slightly, and the silicomanganese supply has increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate in a trending manner, the market expectation has changed, and the price is still weak [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price hits a new low this year. The iron production continues to decline slightly. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The magnesium metal production is basically flat, and the secondary demand remains stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The ferrosilicon supply continues to decline, the market transaction level is average, the on-balance sheet inventory has decreased slightly, and the price is still weak [8]

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月29日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3100 | 3130 | -30 | 122 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3180 | -20 | 182 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 262 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2996 | 3013 | -17 | 104 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2964 | 2980 | -16 | 136 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2978 | 2998 | -20 | 122 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3180 | 3200 | -20 | 70 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3150 | 3150 | 0 | 40 | | | 热卷现 ...

2025 年 05 月 29 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 螺纹钢：负反馈预期先行，震荡走低 热轧卷板：负反馈预期先行，震荡走低 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 2,964 | -23 | -0.77 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,100 | -17 | -0.55 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,333,951 | 2,441,388 | 41,409 | | | HC2510 | 452,531 | 1,537,114 | 23,289 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3100 | 3130 | -30 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of the steel and related industries is weak, with demand expectations being pessimistic and market sentiment being low. The market rhythm may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1]. - Different varieties have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and the impact of carbon element supply and iron - water production on the market needs to be observed for further negative feedback [2][3][5]. Summary by Variety Steel - Today's steel futures market declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline at a slower pace. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and inventory also continued to decline at a slower pace. Iron - water production continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level, with large supply pressure and repeated fermentation of off - season negative feedback expectations. Domestic demand in downstream industries is weak, with slowing manufacturing investment growth, low real - estate sales, and significant declines in recovery investment and new construction. The market is weak but may have fluctuations [1]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market declined today. On the supply side, global shipments increased seasonally with room for further improvement, while domestic arrivals decreased and port inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, terminal demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and iron - water production is gradually declining from a high level. Steel mills have no strong willingness to reduce production actively or replenish inventory. The short - term high iron - water production still supports real - time demand, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. It is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [2]. Coke - The coke price hit a new low this year. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. The first round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, but coking daily production remained at a relatively high level this year due to remaining profits. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders made no purchases. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [3]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price declined with oscillations, hitting a new low this year. The production of coking coal mines remained at a high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut - down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, with continuously falling prices, and terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory pressure continued to accumulate rapidly. In the imported seaborne coal market, Indian terminal acceptance of Australian coal at high prices weakened, but the trading sector strongly supported prices due to cost. The price of Australian quasi - first - line coking coal decreased slightly week - on - week, and it remained significantly inverted compared with domestic coal prices. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal maintains a significant discount, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price declined significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, weekly production data increased slightly, and inventory decreased, with a slight improvement in the fundamentals. South32 Australian ore is expected to arrive at about 50,000 tons at the end of this month. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly, while silicomanganese supply increased slightly. Manganese ore inventory began to accumulate, and market expectations changed. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price declined with oscillations. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal was basically flat, and secondary demand remained high. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, market trading was average, and on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [7]