| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | 女女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面下探回升。本周螺纹表需环比大幅下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上 升,库存开始累积。铁水产量逐步回落,整体仍处于相对高位,负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看,基建 改善幅度有限,制造业景气度放缓,地产销售复苏缺乏持续性,新开工、施工继续大幅下滑,美国继续提高关 税冲击钢材出 ...

| | | | | E Kain K | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月04日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鐵硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | な女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需短期稍有韧性，淡季来临环比依然承压，产量有所回落，库存继续下降。热卷供需均有明显回 升，库存继续下降。铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限, 制造业景气度放缓，地产销售复苏缺乏持续性，新开工、施工继续大幅 ...

铁矿今日盘面反弹。 供应端，全球发运正常波动，目前仍处于季节性偏强阶段，下半年产能释放的预期依然存在。 国内到港量 未来存在回升预期，全国港口库存继续去化的空间相对有限。需求端，终端需求进入淡季，铁水产量逐步高位回落，目前钢厂 盈利率尚可，中美贸易处于窗口期，我们预计铁水短期减产的空间相对有限。整体来看，铁矿供需存在一定边际走弱压力，外 部贸易有进一步缓和迹象，市场情绪有所好转，我们认为矿价走势以震荡为主。 | | | | Milli | 国际期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 ...

2025 年 05 月 29 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 螺纹钢：负反馈预期先行，震荡走低 热轧卷板：负反馈预期先行，震荡走低 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 2,964 | -23 | -0.77 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,100 | -17 | -0.55 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,333,951 | 2,441,388 | 41,409 | | | HC2510 | 452,531 | 1,537,114 | 23,289 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3100 | 3130 | -30 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of the steel and related industries is weak, with demand expectations being pessimistic and market sentiment being low. The market rhythm may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1]. - Different varieties have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and the impact of carbon element supply and iron - water production on the market needs to be observed for further negative feedback [2][3][5]. Summary by Variety Steel - Today's steel futures market declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline at a slower pace. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and inventory also continued to decline at a slower pace. Iron - water production continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level, with large supply pressure and repeated fermentation of off - season negative feedback expectations. Domestic demand in downstream industries is weak, with slowing manufacturing investment growth, low real - estate sales, and significant declines in recovery investment and new construction. The market is weak but may have fluctuations [1]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market declined today. On the supply side, global shipments increased seasonally with room for further improvement, while domestic arrivals decreased and port inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, terminal demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and iron - water production is gradually declining from a high level. Steel mills have no strong willingness to reduce production actively or replenish inventory. The short - term high iron - water production still supports real - time demand, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. It is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [2]. Coke - The coke price hit a new low this year. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. The first round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, but coking daily production remained at a relatively high level this year due to remaining profits. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders made no purchases. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [3]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price declined with oscillations, hitting a new low this year. The production of coking coal mines remained at a high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut - down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, with continuously falling prices, and terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory pressure continued to accumulate rapidly. In the imported seaborne coal market, Indian terminal acceptance of Australian coal at high prices weakened, but the trading sector strongly supported prices due to cost. The price of Australian quasi - first - line coking coal decreased slightly week - on - week, and it remained significantly inverted compared with domestic coal prices. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal maintains a significant discount, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price declined significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, weekly production data increased slightly, and inventory decreased, with a slight improvement in the fundamentals. South32 Australian ore is expected to arrive at about 50,000 tons at the end of this month. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly, while silicomanganese supply increased slightly. Manganese ore inventory began to accumulate, and market expectations changed. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price declined with oscillations. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal was basically flat, and secondary demand remained high. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, market trading was average, and on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [7]