摘要北京时间周一(1月5日)欧洲时段，美元指数强势反弹，交投于98.707附近，金价目前交投于4427.28 美元/盎司，涨幅2.25%，最高触及4433.55美元/盎司，最低触及4331.59美元/盎司。现货黄金震荡上涨， 飙升至每盎司4400美元上方，日内涨幅约1.8%，因在美军拘捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯.马杜罗后，投资 者纷纷涌入避险资产。 北京时间周一(1月5日)欧洲时段，美元指数强势反弹，交投于98.707附近，金价目前交投于4427.28美元/ 盎司，涨幅2.25%，最高触及4433.55美元/盎司，最低触及4331.59美元/盎司。现货黄金震荡上涨，飙升 至每盎司4400美元上方，日内涨幅约1.8%，因在美军拘捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯.马杜罗后，投资者纷 纷涌入避险资产。 今日黄金价格最新查询(2026年1月5日) 政策与经济因素支撑看涨前景：美联储降息预期利好非收益资产，结构性财政压力下宽松立场或持 续，"财政主导"条件形成;前财长警告债务攀升或迫使美联储维持低利率，强化黄金长期吸引力。高盛 上调金价目标至4900美元/盎司，理由包括鸽派政策、全球动荡及机构需求;白银因工业属性及特朗普政 府可能限 ...

一众经济学界泰斗表示，不断攀升的联邦债务所引发的长期风险，是美国经济面临的首要难题。 这些风险中包括这样一种情况：庞大的债务规模迫使美联储维持低利率，以尽量降低偿债成本，而非抑 制通胀，这一概念被称为"财政主导"。 前美国财长兼美联储主席耶伦上周日在费城出席美国经济学会年会的小组讨论时表示："'财政主导'出 现的前提条件显然正在增强。" 她表示："虽然我不认为美国最终会走上'财政主导'的不归路，但我确信这些危险是真实存在的，必须 予以密切监控。" 加州大学伯克利分校的经济学家David Romer则表示，对于两党达成协议以避免"财政灾难"的前景，他 感到"不那么乐观"。 "我们面临着财政问题，"David Romer说道，"如果我们不解决它，这将给包括美联储在内的所有人带来 麻烦。" 耶伦此前曾表示，如果特朗普成功迫使美联储维持低利率以缓解政府债务负担，美国将面临沦为"香蕉 共和国"的风险。 同场出席的前克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特补充道，当前债务问题中"最可怕"的一点在于，特朗普政府的官 员似乎并不理解其中蕴含的威胁。 "历届政府都知道自己正处于悬崖边缘，"尽管它们最终并未采取负责任的行动来控制赤字，她说 道，" ...

一些经济学界重量级人士表示，联邦债务不断攀升所带来的长期风险，是美国经济面临的重要问题。 这些风险包括此种情形：债务规模迫使央行维持低利率，以最大限度地降低偿债成本，而不是抑制通胀 ——这一概念被称为"财政主导"。 "财政主导的前提条件显然正在增强，"前美国财政部长、前美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦周日在费城举行的 美国经济学会年会参加小组讨论时表示。 耶伦此前曾表示，如果特朗普成功迫使美联储维持低利率以减轻政府债务负担，美国将面临沦为"香蕉 共和国"的危险。 一些经济学界重量级人士表示，联邦债务不断攀升所带来的长期风险，是美国经济面临的重要问题。 在同一小组讨论中，前克利夫兰联储行长Loretta Mester指出，当前债务问题中最"可怕"的是特朗普政府 官员似乎没有意识到其中存在的威胁。 她表示，"以往的政府都知道自己正处于悬崖边上"，即使最终没有采取负责任的措施来控制赤字。"我 认为本届政府可能没有意识到后果。" 尽管如此，耶伦表示，她希望一场危机——或许是社会保障和医疗保险即将面临的资不抵债——能够促 使国会就预算改革达成两党协议。 "我不认为美国最终会走上财政主导的道路，但我绝对认为这种危险是真实存在的，应 ...

在同一场合发言的前克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特也表示，当前债务问题最"可怕"之处在于，特朗普政府官 员似乎未能认识到其中蕴含的威胁。 这些风险包括着这样一种情景：债务规模迫使央行维持低利率以尽量降低债务偿还成本，而非将政策重 心放在抑制通胀——这一情境被称为"财政主导"(fiscal dominance)。 对此，前美国财政部长、前美联储主席耶伦周日在费城举行的美国经济协会年会上表示，当前美国财政 主导的前置条件显然正在加强。 耶伦提到，美国总统特朗普曾"公开要求"美联储降低利率，明确目的就是为了降低政府的债务偿还成 本。 耶伦此前曾警告称，若特朗普成功迫使美联储维持低利率以缓解政府债务压力，美国恐沦为"香蕉共和 国"。"香蕉共和国"通常是对那些拥有不民主或不稳定的政府，特别是那些拥有广泛贪污和强大外国势 力介入之国家的贬称。 根据美国国会预算办公室的预测，今年美国联邦赤字将达1.9万亿美元，使总债务达到国内生产总值的 约100%。预计未来十年这一比例将升至国内生产总值的118%左右。 多位资深人士呼应 智通财经1月5日讯（编辑 潇湘）多位美国经济界权威人士周日表示，不断攀升的联邦债务所带来的长 期风险，正成为美国 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一个由多位知名经济学家组成的小组表示，不断膨胀的联邦债务带来的长期风险是 美国经济面临的首要问题。这些风险包括一种情景：债务规模可能促使美联储为了最小化偿债成本而保 持低利率，而非抑制通胀——这一概念被称为"财政主导"。前财政部长兼美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦上周 日在美国经济协会于费城举行的年会上的一次小组讨论中表示，"财政主导的先决条件显然正在增强"。 国会预算办公室预测，今年的联邦赤字将达到1.9万亿美元，使总债务达到国内生产总值的约100%。预 计这一比例将在未来十年升至GDP的约118%。 耶伦还指出，总统唐纳德·特朗普已经"公开要求"美联储明确降低利率，以减少政府的偿债成本。 耶伦此前曾表示，如果特朗普成功迫使美联储保持低利率以减轻政府债务负担，美国将面临沦为"香蕉 共和国"的危险。 在同一小组发言的克利夫兰联储前主席洛蕾塔·梅斯特补充说，当前债务问题"最可怕"的部分在于，特 朗普政府官员似乎并不理解其中涉及的威胁。 "即使最终没有采取负责任的行动来控制赤字，历届政府都知道他们站在悬崖边上，"她说。"我认为本 届政府可能没有意识到其后果。" 尽管如此，耶伦表示她希望一场危机——或许是 ...

白银狂飙，三位数价格并非遥不可及，但其"低风险高回报"的时代或已终结。 12月28日，知名宏观策略师、投资通讯《Lyn Alden投资战略》创始人Lyn Alden近期在VRIC Media的专访中，为投资者揭示了这一贵金属可能在2026年 冲高至100美元的关键驱动力，但她也冷静警示，鉴于白银已从低位大幅上涨，"它不再像白银20美元/盎司甚至更低时那样具有非对称性"，其"低风险 高回报"的时代或已终结。 Lyn Alden坦言，在过去一段时间里，黄金表现强劲，而白银和铂金则"迟迟未动"，但现在"终于开始爆发"。她表示，"目前正享受白银上涨的乐趣"， 但也透露了她作为"逆向投资者"的谨慎："当我在推特上看到人们说'白银60美元'，'白银61美元'，'白银62美元'时，我的逆向思维就会感到紧张……我 不会对白银的回调感到惊讶。"尽管如此，她依然认为"黄金和白银在最近的热情中并未被高估"，它们的上涨更多是"弥补了之前被低估的价值"。 对于白银能否触及三位数的问题，Lyn Alden给出了肯定答复："我认为可以。"她认为，近期白银的上涨是"估值回归与超调的结合"。历史经验表 明，"均值回归往往会过冲"，无论是向上还 ...

摘要今日周一(12月22日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4384美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4380.56美元/盎司，涨幅0.99%，最高上探至4384.50美元/盎司，最低触及4336.91美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周一(12月22日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4384美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报4380.56 美元/盎司，涨幅0.99%，最高上探至4384.50美元/盎司，最低触及4336.91美元/盎司。目前来看，现货黄 金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 本月金价突破4300美元，主流舆论归因于地缘风险或投机泡沫，但Wavers基金模型揭示，这实为"利息 奇点"下的滞后数学重估：全球政府债务利息支出年化达4.9万亿美元历史新高，已成法定货币体系"燃 烧率"。黄金因无交易对手风险、无需再融资，正对"法币信用稀释"定价——2008年来金价与债务利息 支出呈强正相关。 关键在偿债成本：市场紧盯346万亿债务总额，却忽视利息激增1.6万亿的致命性。2024-2025财年，美 利息支出首超国防，政府借贷仅为"借新还旧"。美财政部2026财年前两月数据显示：利息成本同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the changing dynamics in the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Walsh emerging as the leading candidate over Kevin Hassett, amidst discussions on the Fed's independence and future policy direction [1][2][3]. - The candidate pool for the new Fed Chair has been narrowed from 11 to 5, including Hassett, Walsh, current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Reed, with a final decision expected in early January [2]. - Trump's preference for Walsh, who supports significant interest rate cuts, has shifted market expectations, with Walsh's nomination probability rising to approximately 47% while Hassett's has dropped to around 41% [3]. Group 2 - Walsh is characterized as a "hawkish reformer," advocating for a return to the Fed's core mission of price stability and a significant reduction of its balance sheet, arguing that current inflation is a result of past monetary policy mismanagement [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with Trump expressing a desire for the next Chair to consult him on interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the potential political influence on monetary policy [5]. - The Fed's recent announcement of a $40 billion monthly bond purchase plan has led to revised debt issuance forecasts, indicating a commitment to support Treasury financing, which may further blur the lines between monetary and fiscal policy [6]. Group 3 - Recent inflation data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming year, with the CPI showing a lower-than-expected increase, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy [7]. - Waller, a current Fed policymaker, has indicated that there is still room for rate cuts, emphasizing a gradual approach to policy adjustments while acknowledging the current economic landscape [8]. - Market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook for the Fed's future actions, with analysts predicting potential rate cuts in 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about the labor market and inflation dynamics [9].

Core Insights - The report by DBS Bank highlights the need for a defensive asset allocation strategy in 2026 due to rising "fiscal dominance" risks and persistent inflation, recommending an overweight in bonds and gold while focusing on valuation recovery opportunities in Asian equities excluding Japan [1][3]. AI Bubble Debate - The report analyzes the current "AI bubble" concerns, noting that while the U.S. stock market exhibits bubble-like characteristics, the macroeconomic conditions are more favorable compared to the 2000 internet bubble, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle and major tech firms maintaining strong cash flows [2]. - The capital expenditure for generative AI is currently about 1.2% of U.S. GDP, significantly lower than the 5.0% during the 19th-century railroad bubble and the 5.1% during the 2000 tech bubble, indicating that current investment levels are manageable relative to the economy [2]. - Investors are advised to shift focus from AI infrastructure to "Adapters," large non-tech companies that can leverage AI to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2]. Macro Challenges - The report warns of an "extreme era" shaped by geopolitical changes and U.S. debt issues, with U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 100% and high interest payments posing "fiscal dominance" risks, potentially leading to a long-term rise in inflation [3]. - Investors are encouraged to allocate to physical assets to hedge against inflation, with a maintained overweight rating on gold due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Asset Allocation - DBS Bank's model indicates that bonds are currently more attractive than stocks, recommending an overweight in fixed income assets and focusing on high-quality investment-grade bonds while avoiding high-yield bonds with poor risk-reward ratios [4]. - In the equity market, a more nuanced allocation strategy is suggested, with a strong overweight rating on Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to a 32.4% discount compared to developed markets and a projected earnings growth of 18.9% for 2026, surpassing the 11.8% expected for developed markets [4]. - The report highlights potential for further gains in the Chinese market driven by policy stimulus, a rebound in AI-related capital expenditures, and improved corporate earnings outlook [4]. - For the European market, while maintaining a lower allocation stance, the report suggests focusing on the defense sector, which is expected to see a 24% earnings growth in 2026 as NATO members commit to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP [4]. - Additionally, the report recommends allocating some funds to alternative assets, including private equity and hedge funds, to diversify risks amid increasing market volatility [4].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) regarding monetary policy is becoming apparent, with calls for caution against premature interest rate hikes [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Strategy - Former BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Takeda warns against early rate hikes, emphasizing the need to raise the neutral interest rate through fiscal policy and growth strategies first [1][2]. - Takeda's comments reflect a shift towards "Kishida Economics," focusing on strengthening the supply side of the economy, which is a departure from previous policies [2]. - The market anticipates a rate increase to 0.75% at the upcoming BOJ meeting, marking the first hike since January, with all surveyed analysts expecting a rate increase this month [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Emphasis - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida outlines a vision for fiscal policy that prioritizes economic stimulation over austerity, aiming to enhance corporate profits and household incomes through strategic fiscal spending [3]. - Kishida's approach is designed to create a sustainable fiscal policy and social welfare system, countering market concerns about fiscal discipline [3]. - The consensus among economists indicates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the BOJ's December meeting, reflecting strong market expectations [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Takeda holds a moderate view on inflation, suggesting that as energy and food costs stabilize, inflation may slow down and potentially fall below 2% [2]. - Concerns about aggressive fiscal expansion leading to market turmoil, similar to the "Truss Shock" in the UK, are dismissed by Takeda, who argues that Japan's fiscal situation is currently sound [2].