Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [34]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has returned to positive territory, with a 1.3% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, marking a 2.9 percentage point improvement from the full year of 2024 [3]. - Profit growth for Q1 2025 is at 1.02%, which is a decline compared to the full year of 2024, primarily due to increased provisioning efforts aimed at solidifying asset quality [3]. - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33% at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 3 basis points from the beginning of the year, the largest improvement among peer banks [4]. - The bank's loan growth remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 7.59% as of Q1 2025, the highest among comparable peers [5]. - The net interest margin (NIM) shows signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease of 4 basis points compared to the full year of 2024, indicating an improvement in the bank's asset-liability structure [6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue growth is 1.3%, with a profit growth rate of 1.02%, reflecting a strong performance relative to peers [3][11]. - The bank's net interest income increased by 0.48% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a notable improvement in the growth rate compared to 2024 [3]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio improved to 1.33%, and the coverage ratio increased to 187%, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capabilities [4][6]. Loan Growth and Credit Strategy - The bank's loan portfolio grew by over 250 billion yuan year-on-year, with a focus on five key sectors, enhancing its credit deployment capabilities [5]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth is projected at 3.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 11.2%, 5.3%, and 6.6% for the same years [7][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's asset quality continues to improve, with a TTM real non-performing loan generation rate of 1.24%, a decrease of 16 basis points from the previous quarter, maintaining the improvement trend since Q3 2024 [1][5] - Revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 decreased by 3.6% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a shift from growth to decline compared to 2024 [2][6] - The average net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but showed a rebound of 2 basis points compared to Q4 2024, primarily due to a significant decrease in the interest rate paid on deposits [3] - The bank's financial investment balance reached 3.55 trillion, demonstrating resilience amid challenges in the bond market [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q1 2025 revenue was 55,683 million, down 3.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 23,796 million, down 2.2% year-on-year [12] - The non-performing loan ratio increased by 1 basis point to 1.08% at the end of Q1 2025, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [1][5] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are -1.16%, 0.41%, and 2.25%, respectively, with corresponding BPS of 39.20, 41.64, and 44.16 [6] - The target price is set at 25.82 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB of 0.66, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [6] Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality is on an improving path, with a focus on real estate and credit card risk generation, while retail remains under slight pressure [5] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 4 percentage points to 233% at the end of Q1 2025 [1][5]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Bank reported strong growth in core revenue, with both interest income and non-interest income showing significant increases in Q1 2025 [3][4] - The bank's asset quality has improved, with a decrease in non-performing loans and other risk indicators [8] Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, Jiangsu Bank's revenue grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.2%, both showing a slowdown compared to 2024 [2] - Core revenue growth was driven by a 21.9% increase in net interest income and a 21.8% rise in non-interest income, both significantly higher than the previous year's growth rates [3] Loan and Deposit Performance - The bank experienced robust growth in loans and deposits, with Q1 2025 net increases accounting for 83% and 125% of the total net increases for the entire year of 2024, respectively [5] - This strong performance reflects Jiangsu Bank's effective asset management capabilities [5] Interest Margin Improvement - The interest margin for Q1 2025 improved by 12 basis points to 1.80%, primarily due to a reduction in funding costs [6] - The asset yield decreased by 7 basis points to 3.75%, influenced by both market interest rate declines and a lower proportion of higher-yield loans [6] Asset Quality Enhancement - By the end of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 0.86%, down 3 basis points from the beginning of the year, indicating improved asset quality [2][8] - The bank's proactive measures in managing high-risk retail assets contributed to this improvement [8] Future Outlook - For 2025, Jiangsu Bank is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth in revenue and profit, supported by strong loan growth and increased bond investments [4][9] - The bank's net profit is projected to grow by 8.49%, 8.19%, and 7.91% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 14.16 CNY per share [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Qilu Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to market benchmarks [10]. Core Views - Qilu Bank's revenue and net profit have shown consistent growth, with 2024 revenue increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and net profit rising by 17.8%. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 4.7% and net profit by 16.5% [2][3]. - The bank's asset quality is improving, as evidenced by a decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.17% in Q1 2025, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter. The provision coverage ratio has increased to 324.1% [2][5][9]. - Qilu Bank's loan growth remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% in 2024 and 12.3% in Q1 2025, primarily driven by corporate loans [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Qilu Bank's revenue for 2024 was reported at 125 billion, with a projected growth rate of 4.6% for 2025. The net profit for 2024 was 50 billion, with a growth rate of 17.8% [11]. - The bank's net interest income increased by 7.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, contributing to stable revenue growth [3]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio has shown a downward trend, with a current rate of 1.17% and a provision coverage ratio of 324.1%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [5][9]. - The bank's retail loan NPL ratio has increased to 2%, reflecting broader industry trends, while corporate loan NPL rates remain stable [9]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Qilu Bank's total loans reached 3,371 billion in 2024, with a significant portion allocated to infrastructure and wholesale retail sectors [4][11]. - The bank's deposit growth is also strong, with a projected increase of 10.4% in 2025 [11]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with projected net profit growth rates of 16.9%, 15.2%, and 14.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][11]. - The report anticipates that the narrowing of interest margin declines will further support profitability [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Qilu Bank, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and improving asset quality [10]. Core Views - Qilu Bank's revenue and net profit have shown consistent growth, with 2024 revenue increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and net profit rising by 17.8%. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 4.7% and net profit by 16.5% [2][3]. - The bank's asset quality is improving, as evidenced by a decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.17% in Q1 2025, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter, and an increase in the provision coverage ratio to 324.1% [2][5][9]. - Qilu Bank is expanding its credit offerings, with loan growth rates of 12.6% for 2024 and 12.3% for Q1 2025, primarily driven by corporate loans [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Qilu Bank's net interest income increased by 7.9% year-on-year, contributing to stable revenue growth. Non-interest income also saw positive growth, with fees and commissions rising by 8.6% [3][4]. - The bank's dividend payout ratio increased to 27.62% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 4.22% based on the closing price on April 25, 2025 [3]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality is on an upward trend, with the NPL ratio decreasing and the coverage ratio improving. The bank's NPL generation rate is relatively low compared to peers [5][9]. - Retail loan quality has shown some deterioration, with the NPL ratio rising to 2%, but this is considered a common trend across the industry [9]. Growth Prospects - Qilu Bank is expected to maintain high growth rates in net profit, with projections of 16.9%, 15.2%, and 14.9% for 2025 to 2027, respectively. The bank's book value per share (BVPS) is also projected to grow steadily [10][11]. - The bank's rapid expansion in credit and improving asset quality are anticipated to support sustained profitability [10].

行业研究 银行 2025 年 03 月 16 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250310-20250316） 推荐（维持） 提振消费促进需求回暖，资产质量趋稳 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 114,991.99 | 13.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 78,973.67 | 11.41 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | | 相对表现 | 2.8% | 15.6% | 24.4% | -12% 3% 19% 34% 24/03 2 ...