Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The recent 90 - day tariff suspension agreement between China and the US has continued the positive impact of tariff policies, leading to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures prices. Propane prices have declined, but the production profit of PDH - made PP remains significantly in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. There is an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new facility of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production. Among the existing facilities, the number of PE shutdown units has increased, with a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased, resulting in significant supply pressure in the polyolefin market. Polyolefin producers have accumulated large inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has seasonally decreased, while the operating rates of other industries are stable, mainly for rigid - demand purchases [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7339 yuan/ton (+152), PP main contract at 7193 yuan/ton (+119), LL North China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+100), PP East China spot at 7250 yuan/ton (+50), LL North China basis at 61 yuan/ton (+18), LL East China basis at 61 yuan/ton (-52), and PP East China basis at 57 yuan/ton (-69) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 374.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), PP oil - based production profit was 34.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), and PDH - made PP production profit was - 266.6 yuan/ton (+163.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 95.1 yuan/ton (+92.5), PP import profit was - 238.5 yuan/ton (+62.6), and PP export profit was 18.3 US dollars/ton (-7.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 19.4% (-4.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.8% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin producers have significantly accumulated inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks, but no specific inventory data provided [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6987元/吨（-96），PP主力合约收盘价为6995元/吨（-46），LL华北现货为7320 元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7330元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-80），LL华北基差为333元/吨（+86），LL 华东基差为343元/吨（+46）， PP华东基差为205元/吨（-34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为74.4%（-1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为659.2元/吨（+88.4），PP油制生产利润为319.2元/吨（+88.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为-677.0元/吨（-10.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-152.3元/吨（+0.0），PP进口利润为-340.1元/吨（-10.0），PP出口利润为20.2美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为23.4%（-2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为47.9%（-1.0%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.0%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.7%（-0.1%）。 ...

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of polyolefins are oscillating strongly due to the boost from upstream crude oil. The future supply of PE is expected to remain high, while the supply pressure of PP is alleviated due to many device overhauls. The downstream operating rates of polyolefins continue to decline, and the overall inventory is slightly reduced. The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on plastics unilaterally, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7164 yuan/ton (+14), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+15). The LL North China spot price is 7400 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 7380 yuan/ton (+30), and the PP East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is 236 yuan/ton (-24), the LL East China basis is 216 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis is 188 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 83.8% (-0.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-2.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is 342.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), the PP oil - based production profit is 32.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 496.6 yuan/ton (-0.7) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the given content. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 174.1 yuan/ton (+0.0), the PP import profit is - 331.8 yuan/ton (-20.0), and the PP export profit is 19.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.1% (-4.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.8% (+1.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.3% (-1.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.7% (-0.1%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The overall inventory is slightly reduced. However, no specific inventory data is provided [2].