Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, lithium prices still face downward pressure, and price risks should be watched out for. In the medium to long term, the strong upstream price - holding intention verifies the assumption of strong terminal demand, which provides support for prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds and Minerals - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 133,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 6,000 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 5,750 yuan [1] - For lithium ore, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 1,770 yuan, with a change of 130 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 2,575 yuan, with a change of 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,825 yuan, with a change of 110 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 13,775 yuan, with a change of 500 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 15,450 yuan, with a change of 525 yuan [1][2] Futures Contract - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 139,960 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.52%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 139,560 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.95%; lithium carbonate 2603 is not given the closing price but has a daily increase of 5.01%; lithium carbonate 2604 is 141,360 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.13%; lithium carbonate 2605 is 142,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.54% [1] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 48,980 yuan, with a change of 1,455 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 184,800 yuan, with a change of 5,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 164,700 yuan, with a change of 4,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 165,000 yuan, with a change of 4,300 yuan [2] Price Spread - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, with a change of 250 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 8,800 yuan, with a change of 1,640 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, with a change of 220 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,800 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 109,605 tons, with a change of - 168 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is not fully given; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 38,998 tons, with a change of - 894 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 52,940 tons, with a change of 910 tons; the registered warehouse receipts in January (daily, tons) is 25,180 tons, with a change of 2,039 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 132,339 yuan, with a profit of - 694 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 123,199 yuan, with a profit of 5,161 yuan [3] Production Line Maintenance - Hunan Yueneng plans to carry out maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the output of lithium salt cathode materials by 15,000 - 35,000 tons. Wanrun New Energy started to reduce production and carry out maintenance on some production lines as scheduled from December 28, 2025, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the output of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 - 20,000 tons [3]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that CATL's Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Lunar New Year, which may impact lithium supply dynamics in the market [1] Group 1: Company Insights - CATL's lithium production capacity is anticipated to increase next year, aligning with market expectations [1] - The current lithium futures prices are believed to reflect only short-term supply-demand balance improvements [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - An increase in lithium supply is expected in the first half of next year, while demand may decline quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter [1] - The belief is that lithium prices will struggle to rise further at the beginning of next year due to these supply and demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that CATL's Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine may resume production around the Lunar New Year, suggesting a potential increase in lithium supply in the near future [1] Group 1: Company Insights - CATL is expected to see an increase in lithium production capacity next year, as market expectations have already factored this in [1] - The current lithium futures prices are believed to reflect only short-term supply-demand balance improvements [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - An increase in lithium supply is anticipated in the first half of next year, while first-quarter demand may decline on a quarterly basis [1] - It is believed that lithium prices will struggle to rise further at the beginning of next year due to these supply and demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch predicts that despite lithium prices rebounding to over $11,500 per ton in late November (a 38% increase for the second half of 2025), a weak price trend will persist until 2026 due to multiple complex factors affecting production in a fragmented and maturing market [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Fitch expects the lithium market to remain oversupplied in 2026 unless there are significant and sustained capacity reductions. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that the surplus of battery-grade lithium chemicals will expand to 153,000 tons (in lithium carbonate equivalent) by 2026 and further to 207,000 tons in 2027 [2] - The short-term supply-demand balance is contingent on supply reductions, influenced by lagging electric vehicle demand and ongoing policy uncertainties [2] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, lithium-related stocks have shown mixed performance. Canadian lithium developer Standard Lithium (SLI.US) has seen its stock price increase by nearly 250%, while larger producers like Lithium Americas (LAC.US) and Sociedad Química y Minera (SQM.US) have also achieved significant gains. In contrast, industry giants like Albemarle (ALB.US) have underperformed amid weak lithium prices and increased sector volatility [2] - The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF has risen 56% year-to-date, partly driven by tariff and trade war-related news [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The rapidly changing battery technology market, including alternative materials to lithium, may erode expected stable demand. China remains the largest end market (accounting for 64% of total demand) and a dominant processing center, with new market entrants forming strategic partnerships with governments to secure key mineral resources [4] Capital Allocation Discipline - Lithium producers tracked by Fitch are prioritizing balance sheet resilience and rating buffer space before 2026. Albemarle (rated BBB- with a stable outlook) has issued convertible bonds to repay through stock issuance during market upcycles. Sociedad Química y Minera (rated AA(cl)) is responding to pressures by slowing growth capital expenditures and limiting free cash flow consumption [4] - Mineral Resources (MALRF.US) (rated BB- with a stable outlook) has sold a 15% stake in its lithium assets to raise cash for early debt repayment while cutting capital expenditures [4] M&A Opportunities - The challenging industry environment continues to create opportunities for capital-strong large mining companies seeking to diversify their businesses or secure key mineral resources. For instance, Rio Tinto (RIO.US) has been active in lithium project opportunities and is nearing entry into the top five global lithium producers, narrowing the gap with Albemarle and Sociedad Química y Minera [5]

Group 1 - On December 17, lithium carbonate futures on the Guangqi Exchange surged, with the main contract approaching 110,000 yuan/ton [1] - The spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose to 97,100 yuan/ton on December 17, an increase of 1,170 yuan/ton from December 16, and up 62.18% from the year's low [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that overseas lithium mine production will remain flat in Q3 2025, indicating reduced production enthusiasm among overseas mining companies due to low lithium prices earlier in the year [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities reports that lithium salt plants are operating at high capacity, with spodumene and salt lake sources being the main supply drivers [2] - Demand in the power battery sector is benefiting from the rapid growth of both commercial and passenger electric vehicles, while the energy storage market continues to show strong supply and demand dynamics [2] - The expectation of inventory reduction supported by demand is likely to stabilize price bottoms, with short-term lithium carbonate prices expected to remain strong [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the lithium market is cooling, and lithium prices are under medium - term pressure. In December, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and the destocking is expected to slow down. In January, demand may decline month - on - month due to the weakening of the power sector, while supply will increase both at home and abroad, and the market may shift to inventory accumulation. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market - Off - season Approaching**: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1522,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales were 12,466,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In the off - season, vehicle sales in January are the lowest of the year, and the implementation of new annual long - term agreements may affect the production scheduling of some enterprises. [13] - **Overseas Market - Possible Slowdown in Electrification**: In 2025 from January to October, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million units; European sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million units; US sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million units. The US canceled IRA subsidies on October 1st, while most European countries still have subsidies and carbon emission requirements. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November 2025 totaled 2.283 million units, a year - on - year increase of 100%. [19] 1.2 Energy Storage Market - The domestic energy storage orders are booming, mainly due to the "rush - to - export" demand. From January to November, the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells was 466.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 53%. However, production capacity bottlenecks limit the growth of production scheduling, and the production scheduling in December decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. [24] 1.3 December's Downstream Production Scheduling Weakens - In November, the production of batteries, cells, positive electrodes, and electrolytes showed different trends of increase or decrease. In December, the production scheduling of most products decreased month - on - month. In January, affected by the weakening of the power sector, the off - season will continue, and a continued month - on - month negative growth is expected. [30] 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Production of Lithium Carbonate Increases Slightly - From January to November, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 871,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%. The production scheduling in December is 98,000 tons. If the actual production of Jiaxiaowo exceeds 1,000 tons, it will accelerate inventory accumulation. This week, the production of lithium carbonate from mica decreased, while that from spodumene continued to increase. [34] 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, spodumene, mica, and recycling shows different trends throughout the year. [36] 2.3 December's Supply of Lithium Carbonate Increases Marginally - From January to October 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 197,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In November, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. [45] 3. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Estimation of Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance No specific data - based balance estimation content is provided other than a graph. 3.2 The Destocking Speed of Lithium Carbonate Decreases Slightly Month - on - Month - This week, the social inventory decreased by 2,133 tons, including a decrease of 1,606 tons in smelter inventory and 957 tons in downstream inventory, while other inventories increased by 430 tons. The production increased by 59 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts continued to rise in December after being concentratedly cancelled at the end of November. [52] Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Industrial Level**: The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are weakening, the energy storage market is booming, the production scheduling of cathode factories remains high, and some export demands are slightly affected. In December, the supply - demand is marginally loose, and destocking is expected to slow down. In January, demand may decline month - on - month, and supply will increase both at home and abroad, with a possible shift to inventory accumulation. [6] - **Futures Level**: There is a lack of new bullish drivers recently. The stock price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has dropped significantly. After the lithium price reached near the previous high, it decreased with a reduction in positions, indicating capital outflows. In the future, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near 91,000. - **Strategies**: Hold short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On December 5, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market trading recovered, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, demand, supply, and inventory, the current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level. The downstream market remains cautious, the spot market trading is light, and the demand growth has stagnated. The exchange is taking measures to cool the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - On December 5, the closing price of the near - month contract was 90,680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - first contract was 90,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - second contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - third contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 461,507 lots, a decrease of 201,951 lots; the open interest was 560,676 lots, an increase of 47 lots [1] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 93,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 90,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan [1] - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained) was 82,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized) was 86,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan [1] Cost End - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was $1,154/ton, a decrease of $8; the prices of various types of lithium mica were flat [1] Supply End - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, while the output from other sources increased [1] Demand End - Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. In December, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C product shipments weakened; the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 10,922 tons, an increase of 500 tons. The social inventory decreased, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, while the downstream inventory was tight [1] Industry News - Rio Tinto Group aims to reduce unit costs by 4% from 2024 - 2030. The medium - term capital expenditure guidance target (after 2028) will be below $10 billion. Its lithium project under construction will start production before 2028, with an annual capacity of about 200,000 tons [1] - The ignition and resumption ceremony of Wanzai Times New Energy Materials Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, originally planned for December 5, was not held, and the lithium mine of Times Mining has not resumed work [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong, and the news of lithium mine复产 is repeated The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the downstream观望 sentiment is still strong, the spot market trading is light, the demand growth is stagnant, and the exchange intervenes to cool down It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Near - two - week Market Trends - **Futures Prices**: On December 2, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 94,960 yuan/ton, 94,860 yuan/ton, 95,140 yuan/ton, and 95,140 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 260 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and - 420 yuan/ton compared to the previous day The trading volume was 454,290 lots (- 81,185), and the open interest was 552,239 lots (+ 8,606) [2] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and cathode materials also showed different degrees of change [2] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures prices also changed For example, the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the active contract closing price of lithium carbonate was - 2,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Industry News Kodal Minerals shipped 28,950 tons of lithium minerals from its Bougouni mine in southern Mali to a destination port in Hainan, China The company has produced a total of 45,000 tons of concentrates at the Bougouni concentrator, and the remaining 16,000 tons will be gradually exported in batches The expected unit price of the lithium concentrate will exceed 930 US dollars/dry ton [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased in salt - lake production but increased in other raw material production The registered warehouse receipts were 8,992 tons (+ 770 tons), and the social inventory situation was also provided [2] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased In December, the production scheduling of lithium carbonate and lithium decreased, and the production of power batteries rebounded last week In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the shipment volume weakened, and the production scheduling growth of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [2] 3.4 Inventory Situation The SNN lithium carbonate inventory includes inventories of smelters, downstream, and others The total inventory was 118,420 tons, showing a certain change trend compared to previous periods [2]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced a decline, with Tianqi Lithium (002466) down 3.49% at HKD 47.02 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) down 2.43% at HKD 47.44 [1] - Since October, the price of lithium carbonate has been on the rise, surpassing HKD 80,000 and HKD 90,000, reaching a peak of HKD 102,500 per ton on November 19, marking a new high since June 2024 [1] - The total monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to increase in November, with a month-on-month growth of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 49%, indicating ongoing domestic supply expansion [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan Futures released a report indicating that while market expectations for December demand remain positive, the actual demand performance is falling short of expectations due to inventory levels and production schedules in the downstream sector [1] - The report suggests that with a significant amount of lithium salt inventory still held by downstream players, combined with high lithium prices and year-end inventory reduction needs, the support for lithium prices from the demand side may weaken, leading to a potential short-term downward trend in lithium prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks have declined despite rising lithium carbonate prices, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, Tianqi Lithium (09696) fell by 3.49% to HKD 47.02, while Ganfeng Lithium (01772) decreased by 2.43% to HKD 47.44 [1] - Lithium carbonate prices have surged since October, surpassing HKD 80,000 and HKD 90,000, reaching a peak of HKD 102,500 per ton on November 19, marking the highest level since June 2024 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise in November, with a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year surge of 49%, indicating ongoing domestic supply expansion [1] - Guoyuan Futures reported that while market expectations for December demand remain positive, the actual demand performance is falling short, influenced by existing lithium salt inventory levels and high lithium prices [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Due to the combined effects of inventory levels and year-end demand, it is anticipated that support for lithium prices may weaken, leading to a potential short-term downward trend in prices [1]