Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a significant increase during trading, raising questions about whether the price decline has halted [1] - Institutions believe that without significant disruptions on the supply side, it is difficult for the market to trust that lithium prices will stabilize [1]

Group 1: Industry Events - The 2025 High-Performance Sodium Battery Industry Summit is scheduled for June 9, 2025, at the Shangri-La Hotel in Suzhou [2] - The 2025 High-Performance Solid-State Battery Technology and Application Summit will take place on June 10, 2025, at the same venue [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Guansheng Co. revealed that its semi-solid lithium iron phosphate battery is primarily aimed at energy storage customers, showing significant safety improvements with no combustion or explosion during puncture, extrusion, and collision tests. The battery has achieved a cycle life of 12,000 times, surpassing traditional liquid batteries. The company's factory in Wenzhou is expected to partially commence production by the end of this year, with full production anticipated by mid-2026 [3] - CATL has established two new energy companies, Changsha Runshi New Energy Co., Ltd. and Chongren County Runshi New Energy Co., Ltd., with registered capital of 580,000 yuan and 3.81 million yuan, respectively. These companies will engage in power generation, transmission, distribution, electrical installation services, energy management contracts, battery sales, and IoT technology services [5] Group 3: Market Analysis - CITIC Securities reported that lithium prices have slowed their decline in Q1 2025, leading to a slight recovery in overseas lithium ore prices and improved operations for salt lake enterprises. However, the supply side is clearing slowly, with lithium prices dropping to 60,000 yuan/ton in Q2, significantly increasing the industry's loss rate. Expectations for mine production cuts and price stabilization are rising, but the reduction in production is less than anticipated. The forecast for lithium prices in H2 2025 is adjusted to a range of 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost stocks that may benefit from a rebound in lithium prices [7] Group 4: New Projects - Zhongke Electric signed a contract for a 200,000-ton lithium battery material base project in Oman, with a total investment not exceeding 8 billion yuan. The project will be constructed in two phases, each with a planned capacity of 100,000 tons per year, and is expected to take 36 months for each phase [13] - Ruipu Lanjun has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Indonesia's Bakrie & Brothers Group to deliver over 3,000 electric buses and trucks' power batteries by 2025, focusing on "green transportation, made in Indonesia" [15]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium price decline has slowed down in Q1 2025, leading to a slight recovery in overseas lithium mine prices and improved operations for salt lake companies, but the industry is facing significant losses as prices drop to 60,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, overseas lithium mine production decreased, with a total output of 1.01 million tons, a decline of over 10% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Major lithium mines saw a slight price recovery in Q1 2025, with average prices rising above $800/ton, driven by strong demand in the Chinese market [2] - The price of lithium concentrate has entered a new downward trend since Q2 2025, dropping below $650/ton by the end of May, leading to increased operational pressure and losses for overseas lithium miners [3] Group 2: South American Salt Lake Operations - In Q1 2025, lithium sales for ALB, SQM, and LAAC/Ganfeng Lithium were 44,000 tons, 55,000 tons, and 7,200 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6%, 26%, and 60% [4] - ALB and SQM showed improved operational performance in Q1 2025 due to reduced price declines and increased contributions from other business segments [4] - South American salt lake lithium companies are continuing their expansion plans, with LAR and Ganfeng Lithium aiming to increase their lithium production capacity in Argentina to over 200,000 tons [4] Group 3: Supply and Price Outlook - As of the end of May 2025, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton, further expanding industry losses and strengthening expectations for mine production cuts and price rebounds [5] - The company expects lithium prices to stabilize and rebound at current levels, but long-term prices are anticipated to remain at the bottom due to oversupply and cost-cutting efforts by lithium resource companies [5] - The adjusted forecast for lithium prices in the second half of 2025 is set at 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the cost side has stopped falling and stabilized, with some third - party quotes rising. The pre - scheduled production of cathode material factories has been reduced, downstream sentiment is cautious, market transactions are sluggish, and there is no obvious improvement on the demand side. The upstream resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are increasing, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [4]. - In terms of cost, during the reporting period, the price of spodumene rebounded, while the mica price continued to decline [4]. - On the trading floor, after the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement, there was a short - term rally due to short - sellers leaving the market, but the rebound was limited, and the trading volume increased significantly. The short - selling trend continued, and the price hit a new low on Friday [4]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment is strong, and the price may break through the previous low. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized and miners are willing to support the price, the lithium ore resources are not scarce, and the bargaining power of the mining end is limited. The supply - side resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are limited. The salt lake is still in the production - increasing stage, and there is an inventory expectation at the import end. The demand side has weak growth, and the lithium price may remain weak [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) remained unchanged at 115 dollars/ton; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 1.13% to 715 dollars/ton; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased by 1.70% to 695 dollars/ton [6]. - The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 1.59% to 6.30 million yuan/ton; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a 100% decrease [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.34% to 92,073 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,624 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 62,580 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 328,700 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 16, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 15,843 tons, a decrease of 205 tons from the previous period. Although smelters had production cuts, the salt lake was in the production - increasing stage, so the supply - side contraction was limited [8]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a 47% month - on - month increase and a 4.8% year - on - year decrease. The import from Chile and Argentina changed, and the increase in imports from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply in May [8]. - In March, the import of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease. The imports from different countries had different changes, and overall, lithium ore resources were not scarce [9][10]. - In terms of demand, for cathode materials, the production and prices of some products decreased, and the overall cathode material market was in an oversupply situation, with most prices still falling. Some cathode material factories reduced their production plans in May, and there was no obvious increase in lithium demand expected [11]. - In the new energy vehicle market, from May 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 294,000, a 32% year - on - year increase and a 29% month - on - month increase. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 51.3%. New energy vehicle consumption still had resilience, and new policies were introduced [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,073 tons, an increase of 311 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased, while the market inventory decreased, showing a differentiated trend [13]. This Week's Outlook - The short - selling sentiment continues, and the lithium price may hit a new low. There is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment on the trading floor is strong, and the price may break through. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized, the supply - side resumption of production is slow, and the demand side has weak growth [14]. Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million, and the sales of various consumer goods increased [15]. - On May 7, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, supply structure, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, cathode materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [17][19][22][28]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-09 库存小幅去化，碳酸锂盘面下跌后小幅反弹 市场分析 2025年5月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于63960元/吨，收于64280元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.43%。当 日成交量为309284手，持仓量为267396手，较前一交易日减少9504手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳970 元/吨。所有合约总持仓433977手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加123069手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.88 。当日碳酸锂仓单36241手，较上个交易日减少3手。盘面：当日碳酸锂开盘偏弱， 空头短暂主导，尾盘拉升但缺乏持续性，最终收跌0.43%。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月8日电池级碳酸锂报价6.35-6.7万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.31-6.41万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨。周度产量增长至1.83万吨，环比增加3866吨， 周度库存小幅减少464吨至13.16万吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续大幅下移。在头部电芯厂客供比例进一步拉高 的情况下，下游材料厂采购意 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约跌 1.51%至 65260 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 850 元/ 吨至 67100 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂跌 850 元/吨至 65400 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 250 元/吨至 67360 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 250 元/吨至 72505 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓 单库存增加 1759 吨至 35236 吨。 2. 供应端，前期价格连续下挫，低价压力下， 上游陆续有停减产动作，周度产量 14483 吨，折 7 天环 比减少 3 吨，5 月预计整体供应量环比下降，但是需要注意仍然有项目在爬坡和投产过程中，且矿 山/一体化项目成本有降幅明显。需求端， 5 月磷酸铁锂预计产量环比增加 4.5%至 276150 吨，三元 材料环比增长 1.4%至 64615 吨，日均消耗碳酸锂环比增长 1%。下游有一定逢低补库动作，下游库 存水平持续增高，实际采购力度也将有限。库存端，整体社会 ...

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