会上，五矿证券副总经理、研究所所长杨诚笑应邀发表《反转将至——碳酸锂2026年供需格局展望》专题报告，从投研视角系统研判锂市场周期 演变与未来竞争格局。 转自：新华财经 11月25日，2025第二届中国国际锂业大会在四川成都成功举办。本次会议由中国有色金属工业协会主办，以"锂聚全球，链动未来"为主题，聚 焦"稳供给、强链条、促创新、谋共赢"四大核心议题，同来自全球锂电产业的政府代表、专家学者、企业嘉宾及国际机构负责人等400多位嘉宾， 共商在能源转型背景下锂电产业的发展路径与协作机制，共筑应对行业周期挑战和可持续发展的新格局。中国有色金属工业协会党委书记、会长 葛红林，四川省人大常委会副主任何礼，中国盐湖工业集团有限公司董事长薛飞等嘉宾出席会议并致辞。 展望2026年，他表示全球锂资源供给正经历结构性调整。纵观全球，智利未来增长依赖SQM单一项目，阿根廷产能将于2025–2026年集中释放，但 随后增速将显著放缓；澳洲、巴西受资本开支放缓与债务压力制约，增长乏力。非洲虽具潜力，但产量高度依赖价格与政策。 杨诚笑在发言最后总结说，在锂电产业迈向高质量增长的关键阶段，专业、前瞻、深度的投研洞察正成为引领行业和产业 ...

新华财经上海12月1日电中信建投证券金属和金属新材料首席分析师王介超发布观点称，12月本为锂传 统消费淡季，但下游需求远超预期，季节性因素淡化，锂价预计维持高位。据SMM统计，供给端，11 月碳酸锂及氢氧化锂环比增长3%/增长2%，预计12月增量有限，基于江西锂云母复产的乐观预期下，碳 酸锂仅环比增幅3%，氢氧化锂则预计12月环比下降3%。需求端，订单火热现象将持续至年末，11月磷 酸铁锂及三元材料分别环比增长4.7%/下降0.2%，12月订单饱满，铁锂需求环比持平，三元环比回落 6.7%。 月度平衡角度，11月市场短缺万吨以上，预计12月缺口收窄，但或仍缺口5000吨以上，因此12月保持去 库预期，价格有望维持高位。库存端，碳酸锂库存已降至12万吨以下，其中锂盐厂库存从年中的近6万 吨降至2.4万吨，待明年二季度需求旺季，库存水平难以支撑需求，需求将再度赋予价格弹性。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoint - The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. The downstream market remains hesitant, but the spot market trading has picked up. The power demand is weakening, and the exchange is taking measures to cool down the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - On November 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The trading volume was 511,279 lots (+56,667), and the open interest was 343,199 lots (-21,879) [1] - The prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all increased compared to the previous day. The price increases were 5,140 yuan/ton, 4,920 yuan/ton, 4,860 yuan/ton, and 4,860 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,050 yuan/ton (-100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,650 yuan/ton (-100) [1] - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067 US dollars/ton (-4), and the mica prices remained flat [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, including the production from all raw materials. In November, the production of lithium carbonate increased, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased [1] - Downstream demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production of energy - storage batteries increased. The production of power batteries decreased last week [1] - Terminal demand: In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, and the 3C product shipments weakened [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while other inventories increased [1] Industry News - Pioneer Lithium on the Australian Securities Exchange announced that as the global economy shows initial signs of stabilizing after a long - term slump, the company has initiated internal planning to restart the on - site operations of its Root Lake lithium mine project in Ontario, Canada [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 25th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards, with trading volume at 511,279 lots (+56,667) and open interest at 343,199 lots (-21,879). The spot market trading picked up, and the basis changed from positive to negative. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. On the supply side, the lithium carbonate output increased last week, with both types of production rising. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In November, the production of lithium carbonate increased, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased. The output of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C shipments weakened; the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory declined. Both smelters and downstream industries reduced inventory, while others remained stable. Currently, both supply and demand are strong. There are repeated reports of the resumption of production in Jiangxi lithium mines, and the weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high. Downstream market sentiment remains cautious, but the spot market trading has picked up. The power demand is weakening, and the exchange has taken measures to cool down the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: The closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract on November 25, 2025, were 95,340.00, 95,400.00, 95,640.00, and 95,640.00 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 511,279 lots (+56,667), and the open interest was 343,199 lots (-21,879) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 26,615 tons (+105) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 60.00 (+220.00) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Price Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067.00 dollars/ton (-4.00), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained stable [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) decreased by 100.00 yuan/ton to 92,050.00 and 89,650.00 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also decreased by 100.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Materials**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) increased by 2,500.00 yuan/ton to 160,500.00 yuan/ton. The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other materials also had different degrees of changes [1]. 3.3 Industry News - Pioneer Lithium, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, announced that as the global economy shows initial signs of stabilization after a long - term slump, the company has initiated internal planning to restart the on - site operations of its Root Lake lithium mine project in Ontario, Canada. The company said it saved capital during the low - price cycle while retaining the option to advance its highest - quality assets when market conditions improve. With the recovery of market sentiment, Pioneer is now evaluating the plan to re - start the Root Lake geophysical exploration program [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The lithium carbonate output increased last week, with both types of production rising. The production of lithium carbonate increased in November, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The output of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C shipments weakened; the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory declined. Both smelters and downstream industries reduced inventory, while others remained stable [1]. 3.6 Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

碳酸锂周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 监管政策与基本面双重压制 锂价或有回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F 03122184 投资咨询号：Z 0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周：碳酸锂盘面情绪起伏较大，周初在库存加速去化以 及行业龙头释放利多预期驱动下，主力合约触及涨停。而 随着诸多利空在周尾相继放出，盘面于周五跌停。政策上， 交易所于20日发文对部分碳酸锂合约进行单日限仓管理， 打压盘面投机热度。此外，海关数据显示，碳酸锂进口大 幅环增。枕下窝矿传12月初复产，供给偏紧格局或迎来缓 解，拖累锂价周尾大幅回撤。 ⚫ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong trend, but there was a high - level callback on the Friday daytime session. The market expects short - term supply shortages and strong year - end demand in the energy storage sector. Regulatory measures and potential restarts of production may affect the market. The report predicts short - term callback pressure on the disk and suggests light - position short - selling opportunities [2][3][16] Summary by Directory 1. Limitation of Positions, Increase of Fees, Slower Inventory Reduction, and Lithium Prices Peaking and Falling - From November 17th to 21st, lithium salt prices were strong. LC2512 and LC2601 closing prices increased by 4.3% and 4.2% respectively to 91,000 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices rose by 8.4% and 8.6% to 92,300 and 89,900 yuan/ton. Lithium hydroxide prices also followed the upward trend [2][13] - The market was affected by supply expectations, demand support, regulatory measures, and potential restarts of production. SMM data showed an increase in lithium carbonate production and a decrease in inventory, with a slower inventory accumulation slope [3][16] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - PMET submitted a feasibility study report for the CV5 lithium project, revealing the largest lithium spodumene resource in the Americas, with a planned annual production of about 800,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate [17] - Sigma suspended its Brazilian lithium mine in the third quarter, reduced production, and plans to complete expansion by the end of 2026, increasing the total capacity to 520,000 tons/year [17] - Liontown Resources' first lithium spodumene auction price was 16.7% higher than the current spot price [18] - Hunan Yueneng started the construction of a 20,000 - ton battery recycling and a 30,000 - ton lithium carbonate project [18] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Continuous Increase in Lithium Concentrate Prices - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 83 dollars/ton to 1,089 dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [14] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Restart Disturbances - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot showed an upward trend, and the profit of lithium salt plants and relevant price differences also changed [14][16] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Continued Strength of Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide - The prices of downstream materials such as ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium iron phosphate showed an upward or stable trend [14] 3.4 Terminal: High - Growth Maintenance of Power Battery Installation - The power battery installation volume in China maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed positive trends [47][48][52]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific markets experienced a general decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2% and the Korean Composite Index falling more than 3% [3][4] - The A-share market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.18% [5][6] Trading Volume and Sector Performance - The A-share market's half-day trading volume reached 1.32 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day, with nearly 5,000 stocks declining [6] - The market showed a broad decline, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, power equipment, telecommunications, and electronics, with lithium battery concept stocks experiencing significant losses [6][10] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector faced a wave of limit-downs, with major stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium hitting the limit down [11][13] - The futures contract for lithium carbonate saw a significant drop, with predictions for next year's lithium prices remaining conservative, expected to range between 75,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton [15] Shipbuilding Sector - The shipbuilding sector showed resilience, with stocks like Jiuzhiyang and China Shipbuilding Defense hitting their daily limit up [17][18] Aquaculture Sector - The aquaculture sector maintained its recent positive momentum, with stocks like Zhongshui Fishery achieving consecutive gains and Zhuangzi Island hitting the limit up [19] Photoresist Sector - The photoresist sector saw a surge, with stocks like Kaimete Gas and Guofeng New Materials experiencing significant buying interest and hitting their daily limit up [21][22]

消息面上，11月以来，碳酸锂期货主力合约持续发力上涨。11月20日，广期所发布公告，调整碳酸锂期 货相关合约交易手续费标准及交易限额。11月21日早盘，碳酸锂期货主力合约跌超7%，报92960元/ 吨。华泰期货认为，前期行情主要由碳酸锂供需基本面推动，伴随资金逐步入场，近期更多体现为资金 面对价格的驱动，推动涨势加速。 大和近日发布研报称，对明年锂价上行空间仍抱保守看法。该行预测明年锂价将维持于每吨7.5万至9万 元人民币区间，较当前的每吨8.5万元水平上行空间有限，相信中国锂价于今年第四季至明年第一季仍 然偏软，主要由于农历新年需求疲弱及全球电动车迎来淡季。 赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)低开逾6%，截至发稿，跌6.1%，报54.6港元，成交额2098.88万港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，赣锋锂业(01772)低开逾6%，截至发稿，跌6.1%，报54.6港元，成交额2098.88万港 元。 消息面上，11月以来，碳酸锂期货主力合约持续发力上涨。11月20日，广期所发布公告，调整碳酸锂期 货相关合约交易手续费标准及交易限额。11月21日早盘，碳酸锂期货主力合约跌超7%，报92960元/ 吨。华泰期货认为，前期行情主要由碳酸锂供需基本面推动，伴随资金逐步入场，近期更多体现为资金 面对价格的驱动，推动涨势加速。 大和近日发布研报称，对明年锂价上行空间仍抱保守看法。该行预测明年锂价将维持于每吨7.5万至9万 元人民币区间，较当前的每吨8.5万元水平上行空间有限，相信中国锂价于今年第四季至明年第一季仍 然偏软，主要由于农历新年需求疲弱及全球电动车迎来淡季。 ...

格隆汇11月20日｜惠誉旗下研究机构BMI表示，锂价正受益于市场情绪回暖而获得支撑，但仍面临供应 可能回升带来的下行压力。BMI预计2025年中国碳酸锂均价为10100美元/吨，氢氧化锂均价为9700美元/ 吨，均高于此前预期。然而，该机构强调，锂价仍面临下行风险，此前停产的部分供应预计将逐步恢 复，可能在年底前抑制上涨势头。 ...