国家统计局解读：CPI同比下降0.3%，主要是翘尾影响所致，翘尾影响约为-0.8个百分点。食品价格下降4.4%，猪肉、鲜菜、鸡蛋和鲜果价格分别下降17.0%、13.7%、13.5%和4.2%，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August 2023, food prices in China experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, which is a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month, impacting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) negatively [1] Economic Indicators - The decline in food prices was primarily driven by a drop in pork, fresh vegetables, and egg prices, each showing a year-on-year decrease of over 10% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and indicating a continuous expansion in the growth rate for four consecutive months [1] - The overall impact of the food price decline on the CPI was a reduction of 0.51 percentage points compared to the previous month, highlighting the ongoing positive changes in pricing dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The BPI Industrial Raw Materials Price Index remained stable in August, with energy prices weak due to easing geopolitical tensions, while non-ferrous metal prices increased [1][5][6] - Domestic demand pricing for bulk commodities showed mixed results, with significant increases in thermal coal and coking coal prices, while rebar and glass futures declined [9][12] - The trend of declining housing prices continued in major cities, with second-hand housing price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing decreases [12] Group 1: Price Index and Commodity Trends - The BPI index recorded 869 points as of August 31, unchanged from the end of July, with energy prices down 0.2% and non-ferrous prices up 1.4% month-on-month [1][6] - In August, 139 commodities saw price increases, primarily in the chemical sector (88 commodities) and non-ferrous metals (16 commodities) [6] - The South China Comprehensive Index fell by 0.6% month-on-month, while the monthly average value recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [9] Group 2: Emerging Industries and Downstream Prices - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) rose by 5.1% month-on-month, with polysilicon prices increasing by 2.2% and lithium carbonate futures up 14.3% [12][13] - The DXI index, reflecting semiconductor (DRAM) market conditions, increased by 2.4% [12][13] - Downstream prices remained weak, with the Linyi Mall Price Index dropping by 0.41% compared to the end of July, particularly in clothing and hardware sectors [14] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - Export shipping prices generally declined, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) down 8.3% month-on-month [15][16] - The WCID container freight indices for routes from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York fell by 11.4% and 7.5%, respectively [18] - The average monthly value of the highway logistics price index increased by 0.8% year-on-year, but showed a downward trend in August [20] Group 4: Food Prices and Consumer Trends - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with average wholesale prices for pork down 1.9% month-on-month, while prices for 28 key vegetables rose by 12.0% [21] - The average wholesale price for seven monitored fruits decreased by 2.7%, and corn futures fell by 3.1% [21] - The ICPI index from Tsinghua University recorded a monthly value of 99.66, indicating a decline compared to July [14] Group 5: PMI and Economic Signals - The PMI and EPMI price signals were strong, with both the purchasing and output price indices rising for the third consecutive month [22] - Current price data indicates a lack of a clear trend, with strong prices mainly in sectors influenced by supply-demand dynamics [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July 2025, primarily influenced by lower food prices [1] Summary by Relevant Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year was unchanged, largely due to a 1.6% decline in food prices compared to the same period last year, with the decline rate expanding by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The impact of food prices on the CPI year-on-year decreased by approximately 0.29 percentage points, with the downward influence increasing by about 0.24 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Food Price Dynamics - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant year-on-year decline of 7.6%, with the drop rate widening by 7.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The combined downward impact of fresh vegetables and fruits on the CPI year-on-year increased by approximately 0.21 percentage points, which was the main reason for the CPI turning from an increase to flat [1] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Vice President expresses confidence that inflation will decrease due to the decline in exchange rates and food prices [1] Group 1 - The Vice President believes that the combination of lower exchange rates and food prices will contribute to a reduction in inflation [1]

Group 1 - In June, Liaoning Province's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the national average, ranking 12th in the country [1] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the national average, ranking 28th in the country [1] - The prices of food decreased by 1.6%, while non-food prices remained stable compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - Among the eight categories of goods and services, six categories saw price increases, while two categories experienced price declines year-on-year [1] - The largest price increase was in other goods and services, which rose by 8.3%, followed by clothing at 1.3%, and food, tobacco, and alcohol also at 1.3% [1] - Month-on-month, four categories saw price increases, three categories saw declines, and one category remained stable [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - China's June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a four-month decline, exceeding market expectations[4] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, but the decline was narrower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices stabilized and contributed to the CPI increase, with a reduction in the downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The PPI's further decline reflects accumulated supply-side pressures and weak demand[23] - Upstream industrial prices faced significant pressure, with mining industry prices dropping by 13.2% year-on-year[27] Group 3: Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, marking a 14-month high, supported by resilient service prices[20] - Energy prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors[16] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline was smaller than seasonal expectations by 0.5 percentage points[14]

CPI Trends - China's CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a four-month decline, mainly due to the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [1] - Core CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching a nearly 14-month high [1] Commodity Price Impact - International commodity price fluctuations led to a year-on-year increase of 39.2% in gold jewelry prices and 15.9% in platinum jewelry prices, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] Food Price Dynamics - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Beef prices ended a 28-month continuous decline, turning to an increase of 2.7% [1]

Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI is expected to show a slight year-on-year recovery in June, with estimates ranging from 0% to 0.01% year-on-year growth, while month-on-month changes are projected at -0.1% [2][4] - Food prices are experiencing seasonal declines, with fruits down 2.3%, pork down 2.3%, and eggs down 6.4% month-on-month, although vegetable prices have increased by 1.3% due to seasonal factors [2][3] - Non-food prices are anticipated to improve marginally, driven by rising oil prices and a recovery in service consumption [3][4] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI is expected to remain low, with year-on-year estimates ranging from -2.78% to -3.4%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to May [4][5] - Internationally, crude oil prices surged by 9.1% month-on-month, contributing to a rise in the CRB index, while other product price increases remain limited [4][5] - Domestic industrial product prices showed a slight recovery, with the South China Industrial Products Index rising by 0.8% month-on-month in June [4][5]

Inflation Data Summary - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and recorded -0.1% year-on-year, remaining in the negative growth range[2] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies[2] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%[2] - Seasonal vegetable supply increased, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, while fresh fruit prices rose by 3.3% due to supply constraints[13] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI continued to decline, recording -3.3% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month[3] - International commodity prices fell sharply, impacting sectors like oil and gas extraction, which saw a price drop of 5.6%[20] - Consumer goods prices showed some recovery, with clothing and durable goods prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively[20] - New energy sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries experienced a narrowing of price declines, with reductions of -12.1% and -5.0% respectively[21] Economic Outlook - Overall inflation data indicates a low operating level, with both CPI and PPI in negative growth ranges, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the economy[23] - Despite short-term pressure from food and energy prices, core CPI stabilization and structural improvements suggest that policy measures are gradually taking effect[23] - The monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and appropriate, potentially utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize domestic demand and market expectations[5]