当地时间12月2日，美国总统特朗普表示，将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选。尽管特朗普尚未正式确认 提名人选，但在他的暗示下，一个名字脱颖而出并成为了压倒性的热门人选：白宫国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈塞特。 预测市场平台"Kalshi"3日预测，哈塞特获得提名的概率为86%，前美联储理事沃什和现美联储理事鲍曼 的概率分别为6%和4%。 消息传出后，美元汇率短暂下跌。对于哈塞特接任美联储主席，外界反应两极，有人批评哈塞特是"特 朗普傀儡"，也有支持者认为"再没有比他更合适的人选了"。 据知情人士透露，美财政部正在通过与主要华尔街银行、资产管理巨头及美债市场其他大企业的高管一 对一交流，征求对哈塞特及其他候选人的反馈。市场参与者普遍担忧哈塞特推动无差别降息，宽松货币 政策与高通胀叠加，可能引发长期美国国债抛售潮。 哈塞特是谁？有何背景？ 据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）等媒体报道，现年63岁的哈塞特于1962年出生在美国马萨诸塞州格林 菲尔德，本科就读于斯沃斯莫尔学院，获得经济学学士学位，随后进入宾夕法尼亚大学，先后获得经济 学硕士和博士学位。 在职业生涯的早期，哈塞特曾在美联储研究与统计司担任经济学家，这段经历让他积累 ...

黄金本周跳水后，一路进入了震荡整理的过程，100美金震荡收窄，到现在缩小到了50美金幅度，继续 震荡收窄，不断争夺4200的关口，酝酿新一波行情，等待爆发。 今天的走势 下方若再跌穿4194，看向4160的强支撑区域。 黄金2个月单边上涨，刷历史新高后，到本月进入了连续3个月的震荡横盘整理的过程，特别是本月多头 爆发连涨破4200后，再次陷入了调整的过程。上方再次上破，看向4300的关口。当然了，下方再次回 调，看向4110的区域。 操作方面，黄金涨势中的调整，力度有限，依然看反弹的机会，关注4160和4194做多的机会。此外，黄 金短期内震荡调整，关注4230和4264做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 昨晚回升后，今天重回4200。 继续震荡收窄，4200上下涨跌。 逼近最终的突破，上方先看4230。 再次上破，继续看向前高4264的阻力，或更高看向4300的关口。 同时，下方再次回落。 先探4194的位置，再次支撑反弹，继续看震荡持续。 我们8位数黄金团队，实操十多年能够实现稳健的85%甚至更高的准确率。同时，最低的风险，实现盈 利最大化，平均每单看到6-20个点的比较大获利空间。 美元体系水量不减，创造了一 ...

美联储哈马克：高通胀对经济而言仍是一个现实问题。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Hamark emphasizes the importance of monitoring stablecoins and private credit, indicating that the current financial environment is "quite loose" and that interest rate cuts could distort market pricing levels, potentially prolonging high inflation scenarios [1] Group 1 - The current financial environment is described as "quite loose," suggesting ample liquidity in the market [1] - Interest rate cuts may pose risks by distorting market pricing levels and could lead to prolonged high inflation [1] - Lowering interest rates for risk management purposes could increase financial stability risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that interest rate cuts may prolong high inflation and could encourage risk-taking behavior in financial markets [1] Group 1 - Interest rate cuts could potentially lead to sustained high inflation levels [1] - Lower interest rates may incentivize financial markets to engage in riskier investments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve officials, particularly Harker, have indicated that lowering interest rates could prolong high inflation [1] Group 2 - The statement highlights the potential risks associated with interest rate cuts in the context of ongoing inflationary pressures [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the economic divergence between the US and China, highlighting the acceleration of the new and old economy split, particularly in the context of the 2025 economic outlook and its implications for 2026 [1][6][21]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Divergence - The US economy is facing "three highs" issues: high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages, which are pressuring traditional businesses while benefiting a few leading tech firms in the new economy [1][7][9]. - China's stock market reflects new economic growth, but its contribution remains low, with traditional sectors like real estate experiencing significant declines, leading to a historic first instance of zero investment growth in 2025 [1][11][21]. Market Predictions - Predictions for 2026 emphasize the need to avoid linear extrapolation from 2025 data, as structural changes and market expectations may lead to different economic paths [2][5]. - The overall performance of various asset classes in 2025 was positive, but the domestic bond market showed weakness, indicating caution in projecting trends for 2026 based solely on past performance [3][4]. Challenges in the US Economy - The US consumer-driven economy is under pressure from declining employment, low consumer confidence, and rising delinquency rates on loans, with non-farm employment data showing negative growth [8][9]. - The impact of AI on the economy is significant but concentrated in a few sectors, limiting its overall contribution to GDP and employment growth [9]. China's Economic Dynamics - The new economy in China is primarily driven by manufacturing investments, with local governments increasing spending on emerging industries under national policy guidance [12]. - The real estate sector's decline is accelerating, which is expected to continue affecting overall economic growth negatively in the coming years [11][21]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In 2025, fiscal policy was aggressive, supporting economic growth, but signs of a slowdown in fiscal support are emerging, with expectations of reduced government spending in 2026 [25][27]. - The current monetary policy environment is relatively loose, with potential for further easing, especially in light of the stable RMB exchange rate, which allows for more flexibility in monetary policy [36][38]. Market Valuation and Risk Premium - Global stock valuations are at historical highs, with risk premiums indicating a high level of market uncertainty, although not at the extreme levels seen during the internet bubble [15][16]. - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is evolving, with both potentially coexisting despite differing influences from the new and traditional economies [13][41]. Trade Dynamics - China's trade surplus reached a historical high, accounting for nearly half of the global surplus, which may lead to increased international trade tensions [22][23]. - Expectations for trade friction in 2026 remain high, with potential challenges for export orders continuing to affect economic performance [24]. Additional Important Insights - The records highlight the importance of understanding the structural changes in both the US and Chinese economies, particularly the implications of AI and traditional industry pressures [6][9]. - The anticipated decline in fiscal support and the need for monetary policy adjustments in 2026 are critical for investors to consider when evaluating market opportunities and risks [27][30]. - The interplay between stock and bond markets suggests that shifts in investor sentiment could lead to increased capital flows into bonds if stock valuations decline [41].

Core Viewpoint - The high inflation in the U.S. is primarily attributed to the methods of measurement rather than underlying economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's perspective indicates that the current inflation metrics may not accurately reflect the true economic situation [1] - There is a suggestion that the measurement techniques used to assess inflation could be leading to an overestimation of inflation rates [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market remains near historical highs as companies begin to report their summer earnings, with the S&P 500 index only 0.2% below its record high [2] - General Motors reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analyst expectations and raised some full-year performance targets, leading to a 10.2% increase in its stock price [2] - Halliburton and Danaher also saw stock price increases of at least 8% due to quarterly profits surpassing analyst forecasts, while Coca-Cola and GE Aerospace stocks rose by 3.4% and 4.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - Warner Bros. Discovery announced plans to divest Discovery Global and is considering other options to enhance shareholder value, resulting in a 10.6% increase in its stock price [3] - Despite exceeding analyst profit expectations, PulteGroup's stock fell by 4.1%, and Northrop Grumman's stock declined by 2.3% due to revenue missing analyst forecasts [3] - Major tech stocks are experiencing a pause in their upward momentum, with Alphabet's stock dropping 1.3%, impacting the S&P 500 index [3] Group 3 - Gold prices have decreased by 3.3% from recent historical highs, settling at $4,215.60 per ounce, although they have risen nearly 60% year-to-date [4] - The S&P 500 index has surged 35% since April's low, putting pressure on companies to demonstrate profit growth to justify high stock prices [4] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed important economic data updates, increasing the significance of corporate earnings reports for assessing economic vitality [4] Group 4 - In overseas markets, most European and Asian indices have risen, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 0.3% as investors anticipate favorable policies from newly appointed Prime Minister [5] - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has decreased from 4.00% to 3.95% [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its independence, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Challenges to Fed Independence** The Fed's independence is facing significant challenges, particularly from the Trump administration, which is attempting to influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) by appointing representatives aligned with its views [2][8][11] 2. **Impact of New Appointee** The appointment of Stephen Milan, who supports aggressive rate cuts, contrasts sharply with the majority of FOMC members, potentially affecting the decision-making process within the Fed [1][2] 3. **Pressure from Trump** Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to implement substantial rate cuts, claiming that a reduction of 200-300 basis points could save the government $800 billion in interest payments [2][6][8] 4. **Internal Unity Among Fed Members** Despite external pressures, the presence of Milan has seemingly fostered greater unity among existing FOMC members, as evidenced by their voting behavior [2][5] 5. **Historical Context of Fed Independence** Historical precedents, such as the tenure of Arthur Burns in the 1970s, illustrate that a loss of Fed independence can lead to high inflation and unemployment, with gold prices performing exceptionally well during such periods [3][9][10] 6. **Current Economic Indicators** Recent CPI data has come in below expectations, leading to market speculation that the Fed may cut rates twice more in 2025, which has resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates and a rise in long-term rates [4][5] 7. **Miscalculations in Interest Savings** The claim that a 200 basis point cut would save $800 billion is flawed, as only 20% of U.S. government debt is in short-term bills, and the remaining 80% is in longer-term bonds, which are not directly influenced by the Fed [6][7] 8. **Potential Market Reactions** If the Fed loses its independence, historical patterns suggest that gold prices could continue to rise while the dollar index remains weak, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [12] 9. **Future Economic Risks** The risk of high inflation remains a concern if the Fed adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance under new leadership, which could mirror past economic challenges [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The dynamics of the current market are similar to those observed during the Burns era, with gold prices potentially reaching new highs despite short-term fluctuations [4][10] - The geopolitical landscape and investor sentiment towards the dollar are also contributing factors to the anticipated performance of gold and the dollar index [12]